Studying judgement: Some comments and suggestions for future research

Three general issues emerge from the preceding papers: a confusion between judgement and related activities such as decision making, problem solving, and attitudes; differences in the underlying assumptions about the nature of judgement; and different approaches for testing the adequacy of theories human judgement. The implications of these issues for studying human judgement processes and for future research priorities in this area are briefly discussed.     

Some suggestions for the conduct of biographical research

Despite the strong and growing interest in biography, few psychologists engage in such studies themselves or feel competent to supervise them. Yet biography is a naturalistic form of empirical research and a rich source of ideas about the development of the individual across the life span. I offer a set of five suggestions for the conduct of biographical research and illustrate its use with examples drawn from archival and biographical interviewing studies. Three of the five suggestions concern the selection, presentation, and interpretation of data, areas where the psychologist's concern about investigator bias and reliability of interpretation has been greatest.     

Trauma,causality and time: Some reflections: EPISTEMOLOGY STUDY GROUP,PORTO ALEGRE PSYCHOANALYTICAL SOCIETY1

Based on the studies and discussions of the Epistemology Study Group of the Porto Alegre Psychoanalytical Society, the authors aim to connect the notions of psychical determinism with the concept of trauma and temporality, from a perspective of the mind as a complex system. Following consideration of the concept of psychical determinism, they attempt to expand the discussion on causality. They propose that trauma be situated in the body of contemporary psychoanalysis, where emotional experience is favoured over factual events, leading to the need to rethink the concept of trauma and its usefulness. In the same way, in the light of recent developments, the authors revisit the Freudian etiologic equation, with a proposal that an i, for imaginary factor, be included, corresponding to an element of complexity. The question of temporality, connected with trauma and the therapeutic action of psychoanalysis, is approached within a vision of irreversible time, characteristic of complex systems, far‐from‐equilibrium‐which is how the authors understand psychical functioning.     

Predicting the point at which to change interventions: Borrowing a metric from econometrics

Conclusions The field of applied behavior analysis is a conservative one, a field that has developed many of its own methods. Despite our success, we have much to learn from other fields. One such field may be economics in general and econometrics in particular. Behavior analysis, education, and psychology are, of course, far less sophisticated in statistics than is economics — a fact of which we might be proud (see Baer, 1977). While the procedure presented here is not sophisticated in the mathematical sense, it might be valuable to us in determining when to change interventions, a decision for which we currently have no metric. The procedure seems easy to translate to ABA, has been well-tested and is a standard procedure in econometrics, is easy to use, and may present a reasonable alternative to our present way of deciding when to change interventions.     

Is there a history of philosophy? Some difficulties and suggestions

Philosophy as a separate discipline is a rather new phenomenon. This presents problems for our understanding of what constitutes the history of philosophy. Past writers often approached their concerns from a multi-disciplinary perspective; thus to understand them we have to do more than answer a contemporary set of issues. To that end, I suggest we attend to Locke's advice on how to read a text. Following this advice may permit us to avoid several puzzles which result from misreading a text.     

Some suggestions on epileptic psychoses, their differential diagnosis and therapy

From a present point of view, some clinical suggestions are put forward concerning the symptomatology, differential diagnostics, and therapy of psychotic states in epileptic patients (twilight states, states of emotional deterioration and epileptic psychoses proper).     

Multiple causality in developmental disorders: methodological implications from computational modelling

When developmental disorders are defined on the basis of behavioural impairments alone, there is a risk that individuals with different underlying cognitive deficits will be grouped together on the basis that they happen to share a certain impairment. This phenomenon is labelled multiple causality. In contrast, a developmental disorder generated by a single underlying cognitive deficit may nevertheless show variable patterns of impairments due to individual differences. Connectionist computational models of development are used to investigate whether there may be ways to distinguish disorder groups with a single underlying cause (homogeneous disorder groups) from disorder groups with multiple underlying causes (heterogeneous disorder groups) on the basis of behavioural measures alone. A heuristic is proposed to assess the underlying causal homogeneity of the disorder group based on the variability of different behavioural measures from the target domain. Heterogeneous disorder groups are likely to show smaller variability on the measure used to define the disorder than on subsequent behavioural measures, while homogeneous groups should show approximately equivalent variability. Homogeneous disorder groups should show reductions in the variability of behavioural measures over time, while heterogeneous groups may not. It is demonstrated how these predictions arise from computational assumptions, and their use is illustrated with reference to behavioural data on naming skills from two developmental disorder groups, Williams syndrome and children with Word Finding Difficulties.     

Mentality and causality

I am grateful to John Bickle, Jaegwon Kim, Brian McLaughlin, and, most especially, to my colleague, Alfred Mele, for much helpful discussion on the topic of intentional causation.     

Categories and causality: the neglected direction

The standard approach guiding research on the relationship between categories and causality views categories as reflecting causal relations in the world. We provide evidence that the opposite direction also holds: categories that have been acquired in previous learning contexts may influence subsequent causal learning. In three experiments we show that identical causal learning input yields different attributions of causal capacity depending on the pre-existing categories to which the learning exemplars are assigned. There is a strong tendency to continue to use old conceptual schemes rather than switch to new ones even when the old categories are not optimal for predicting the new effect, and when they were motivated by goals that differed from the present context of causal discovery. However, we also found that the use of prior categories is dependent on the match between categories and causal effect. Whenever the category labels suggest natural kinds which can be plausibly related to the causal effects, transfer was observed. When the categories were arbitrary, or could not be plausibly related to the causal effect learners abandoned the categories, and used different categories to predict the causal effect.     

Some suggestions for modifying the incremental influence of organizational members

The purpose of this series of three studies was to examine ways of modifying incremental influence. The first was an experimental laboratory study involving manipulation of interpersonal attraction via perceptions of similarity. Results from Study I strongly supported the hypothesis that referent power can be changed as a function of interpersonal attraction. Study II reports on an organizational simulation and provides further evidence for the linkage between interpersonal attraction and referent power. This study also tested the hypothesis that satisfaction covaries with self-perceived referent power. The data, while supporting the hypothesis, expanded the association of satisfaction to the other power bases, i.e., expert, reward, coercive, and legitimate. The final study examined power changes as a function of organization development interventions in a field setting. The findings show that not only was referent power enhanced, as hypothesized, but that other power bases also changed. In addition, hypotheses previously tested in Studies I and II received further confirmation in Study III. The overall pattern of results suggests that referent power can be altered by affecting the interpersonal attraction of group members. Implications for organizational intervention and practice are discussed, and some possible modifications to the theoretical framework of power are advanced.     

Inferring causality assessments from predictive responses: cue interaction without cue competition

The authors criticize the use of participants' predictive responses during a learning phase as a measure of causal assessments. Simulations demonstrate that a general aim to minimize error as required in the prediction task will produce results in accordance with those observed, in particular apparent cue interaction effects. It is argued that measures estimated from prediction responses do not reflect causal ratings, but are side-effects of learning explained by adaptation in strategy to changes in presented cell frequencies. The results are reinterpreted to be in line with a causal model view, not requiring dual processes or cue competition of lower level associative processes.     

Perceptual causality and animacy

Certain simple visual displays consisting of moving 2-D geometric shapes can give rise to percepts with high-level properties such as causality and animacy. This article reviews recent research on such phenomena, which began with the classic work of Michotte and of Heider and Simmel. The importance of such phenomena stems in part from the fact that these interpretations seem to be largely perceptual in nature - to be fairly fast, automatic, irresistible and highly stimulus driven - despite the fact that they involve impressions typically associated with higher-level cognitive processing. This research suggests that just as the visual system works to recover the physical structure of the world by inferring properties such as 3-D shape, so too does it work to recover the causal and social structure of the world by inferring properties such as causality and animacy.     

Process causality and asymmetry

Process theories of causality seek to explicate causality as a property of individual causal processes. This paper examines the capacity of such theories to account for the asymmetry of causation. Three types of theories of asymmetry are discussed; the subjective, the temporal, and the physical, the third of these being the preferred approach. Asymmetric features of the world, namely the entropic and Kaon arrows, are considered as possible sources of causal asymmetry and a physical theory of asymmetry is subsequently developed with special reference to the questions of objectivity and backwards causation.An earlier draft of this paper was read at the A.A.P. conference at the University of Sydney, June, 1990. The author would like to thank Peter Menzies and Huw Price for their helpful comments.