Inferences about predictable events

If someone falls off of a 14th story roof, very predictably death will result. The conditions under which readers appear to infer such predictable outcomes were examined with three different retrieval paradigms: immediate recognition test, cued recall, and priming in word recognition. On immediate test, responses to a word representing the implicit outcome (e.g., dead) were slow, but on delayed test these responses were slow or inaccurate only when primed by an explicitly stated word. However, the word expressing the predictable outcome did function as an effective recall cue. Results suggest that readers encode these inferences into memory only minimally, but that they can make use of a cue word that represents the inference (e.g., dead) both at the time of an immediate test and in delayed cued recall.     

Inferences about others from their reports about themselves

Subjects in this study were asked to infer an attribute of a target person on the basis of his report about himself: Two informational determinants of such inferences were varied: (a) reliability of the report, i.e. the belief that the target person would correctly report events that had actually occurred and (b) diagnosticity of the actual events, i.e. the belief that the actual events are indicative of the attribute. Normative considerations require that the effect of diagnosticity be dependent on reliability so that as reliability increases, judgment should become less regressive, i.e. vary more as a function of events' diagnosticity. The results indicate that subjects employed a simple but inappropriate averaging rule in combining reliability and diagnosticity information. This rule, like many other simplifying judgmental heuristics, resulted in inferences that were more extreme than warranted by normative models. The inappropriate combination of reliability and diagnosticity information may thus contribute to observers' tendency to over-attribute personal characteristics to others.     

Inferences about age impairments in inferential reasoning

Two experiments are reported in which specially constructed series completion tests were administered to samples of young and older adults to determine why increased age is associated with poorer performance on measures of inductive reasoning. The results indicated that young and older adults did not differ significantly in the effectiveness of processes concerned with determining simple relations, but that older adults were impaired when the relations are complex or when different problems involve alternative organizational patterns. We conclude that the poorer performance of older adults relative to young adults on tasks of this type may be due to inadequate (e.g., overly simplistic or temporally instable) relational structures for the integration of problem elements.     

Inferences about character and motive influence intentionality attributions about side effects

In two studies, we predicted and found that inferences about motive and character influence intentionality attributions about foreseeable consequences of action (i.e., side effects). First, we show that inferences about intentionality are greater for good side effects than bad side effects when a target person's character is described positively. In Study 2, we manipulated information about a target person and found that inferences about intentionality were greater when side effects were consistent with a target person's character and motives. Overall, our data cast doubt on the generality of the side-effect effect. We discuss our findings and their implications for future research on intentionality and social perception.     

On Mixed Inferences and Pluralism about Truth Predicates

A familiar view concerning sentences about the ethical or comical is that they are not truth-apt – not capable of being true or false. Against this view Peter Geach famously noted that such sentences may figure in true (or false) conditionals and so must thereby be truth-apt. In response to Geach's argument, Crispin Wright proposed a pluralism about truth predicates, a pluralism which sees Geach's conditional clauses as being true in a sense that avoids realism about the entities involved. I defend Wright's proposal against an interesting recent attack by Christine Tappolet, and show that, pace Tappolet, Wright's proposed pluralism is compatible with the Tarskian idea that validity is necessary truth-preservation.     

Inferences about unobserved causes in human contingency learning

Estimates of the causal efficacy of an event need to take into account the possible presence and influence of other unobserved causes that might have contributed to the occurrence of the effect. Current theoretical approaches deal differently with this problem. Associative theories assume that at least one unobserved cause is always present. In contrast, causal Bayes net theories (including Power PC theory) hypothesize that unobserved causes may be present or absent. These theories generally assume independence of different causes of the same event, which greatly simplifies modelling learning and inference. In two experiments participants were requested to learn about the causal relation between a single cause and an effect by observing their co-occurrence (Experiment 1) or by actively intervening in the cause (Experiment 2). Participants' assumptions about the presence of an unobserved cause were assessed either after each learning trial or at the end of the learning phase. The results show an interesting dissociation. Whereas there was a tendency to assume interdependence of the causes in the online judgements during learning, the final judgements tended to be more in the direction of an independence assumption. Possible explanations and implications of these findings are discussed.     

Inferences about predictable events: eye movements during reading

 Eye fixations were recorded to assess whether, how, and when readers draw inferences about predictable events. Predicting context sentences, or non-predicting control sentences, were presented, followed by continuation sentences in which a target word referred to a predictable event (inferential word) or an unlikely event (non-predictable word). There were no effects on initial target word processing measures, such as launch and landing sites, fixation probability, first-fixation duration, or first-pass reading time. However, relative to the control condition, the predicting context (1) speeded up reanalysis of the inferential word, as revealed by a reduction in second-pass reading time and regressions, and (2) interfered with processing of the non-predictable word, as shown by an increase in regressions. These results indicate that predictive inferences are active at late text integration processes, rather than at early lexical-access processes. The pattern of findings suggests that these inferences involve initial activation of rather general concepts following the inducing context, and that they are completed or refined with delay, after the inferential target word is read. Received: 4 January 2000 / Accepted: 23 October 2000     

Inferences about mechanisms that mediate pattern and flicker sensitivity

Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics - Visual sensitivity to a flickering, sinusoidal grating was assessed in multiple sclerosis patients and control observers. It was found that losses in...     

基于秘密分享的学前儿童对友谊关系的推断

秘密是隐藏在内心深处的东西,人们通常会与亲密的人分享和披露秘密。因此,追踪人们知道彼此的秘密可以作为社会关系的线索。本研究开展两个实验探究秘密分享对学前儿童推断友谊关系的影响。105名和60名幼儿分别参与实验1、实验2。实验1发现5岁以下的儿童大多数认为主角分享物质资源(玩具)的对象是主角的朋友,5～6岁的儿童大多数认为主角分享秘密的对象是主角的朋友,选择被分享秘密的人是分享者更可能的朋友的人数随着年龄的增长而增长; 实验2发现与分享积极的秘密信息和物质资源相比,大部分5～6岁的儿童更倾向于认为分享消极的秘密信息的双方存在友谊关系。研究结果说明至少5～6岁的儿童理解分享秘密的社会意义,并且5～6岁儿童把分享消极的秘密作为友谊关系更有力的标志。     

Inferences from disclosures about the truth and falsity of expert testimony

Participants acting as mock jurors made inferences about whether a person was a suspect in a murder based on an expert's testimony about the presence of objects at the crime scene and the disclosure that the testimony was true or false. Experiment 1 showed that participants made more correct inferences, and made inferences more quickly, when the truth or falsity of the expert's testimony was disclosed immediately after the testimony rather than when the disclosure was delayed. Experiment 2 showed no advantage for prior disclosure over immediate disclosure. Experiment 3 showed that the pattern of inferences when there was no disclosure mirrored the pattern when it was disclosed that the expert's testimony was true rather than false. Participants made more correct inferences from true conjunctions than disjunctions, and from false disjunctions than conjunctions. We discuss the implications for theories of the mental representations and cognitive processes that underlie human reasoning.     

Inferences about guessing and knowing by chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

The visual perspective-taking ability of 4 chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) was investigated. The subjects chose between information about the location of hidden food provided by 2 experimenters who randomly alternated between two roles (the guesser and the knower). The knower baited 1 of 4 obscured cups so that the subjects could watch the process but could not see which of the cups contained the reward. The guesser waited outside the room until the food was hidden. Finally, the knower pointed to the correct cup while the guesser pointed to an incorrect one. The chimpanzees quickly learned to respond to the knower. They also showed transfer to a novel variation of the task, in which the guesser remained inside the room and covered his head while the knower stood next to him and watched a third experimenter bait the cups. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that chimpanzees are capable of modeling the visual perspectives of others.     

Reasoning about cooperation,actions and preferences

In this paper, a logic for reasoning about coalitional power is developed which explicitly represents agents’ preferences and the actions by which the agents can achieve certain results. A complete axiomatization is given and its satisfiability problem is shown to be decidable and EXPTIME-hard.     

Gene-environment interdependence

Behavioural genetics was initially concerned with partitioning population variance into that due to genetics and that due to environmental influences. The implication was that the two were separate and it was assumed that gene-environment interactions were usually of so little importance that they could safely be ignored. Theoretical considerations suggested that that was unlikely to be true and empirical findings are now accumulating on the demonstrated and replicated biological interactions between identified common single genetic variants and the operation of environmentally mediated risks. The paper outlines the evidence and considers why it is changing concepts in ways that matter.     

Crossmodal learning in newborn infants: Inferences about properties of auditory-visual events

The majority of research on infant crossmodal perception has addressed the question of whether infants 4 months and older demonstrate the ability. By contrast, the focus in the present study was on newborns and the primary goal was twofold: to determine if newborns can learn arbitrary sight-sound pairings and to evaluate possible inferences that neonates make when repeatedly presented arbitrary sight-sound pairings. Alert neonates were familiarized with toy-sound pairs using an infant-controlled habituation procedure. They were then given a violation-of-expectancy test to determine if they had learned these sight-sound pairings and drawn any inferences about certain properties of these bimodal events. Results supported the conclusion that infants just a few hours old can learn sight-sound pairings. Furthermore, the findings suggested that newborns expected sight-sound pairs to remain colocated even when they move to a new location, they recognized that the sound was an attribute of a specific object, and they recognized that a specific spatial location was not an attribute of the sight-sound pair. Thus, infants made important and correct inferences based on limited experiences with specific auditory-visual events, and they did so just after birth. Implications of these findings for theories of crossmodal perceptual development are discussed.     

Moore Inferences

André Gallois (in The World Without, the Mind Within , Cambridge UP, 1996) maintains that the following schema expresses a warranted form of inference:
p
——————
I believe that p .
I argue that these 'Moore inferences' are not warranted.     

Inferences about the femininity of competent women and their implications for likability

Male (N=59) and female (N=60) college students were given a written protocol describing a competent, achievement-oriented female stimulus person (SP) with either a masculine or feminine pattern of vocational and avocational interests. Three groups were given a masculine-pattern protocol and one group was given a feminine-pattern one. They were then asked to rate the SP on likability in work and social settings, femininity, and a number of other personal attributes. Two groups given the masculine-pattern protocol were also supplied with the SP's responses to items from a “personality” test answered in a predominantly feminine (Masculine—Feminine SP) or masculine (Masculine-Masculine SP) direction. The remaining groups (Masculine-Neutral and Feminine-Neutral SPs) were given no additional information. In agreement with previous findings, the Masculine-Neutral SP was liked more in social settings than was the Feminine-Neutral one. It was hypothesized and confirmed that the Masculine-Neutral SP would be perceived as similar to the Masculine-Feminine SP in femininity and likability and that both these SPs would be judged to be higher on these characteristics than the Masculine-Masculine. Complex results were obtained from the ratings of other attributes. Overall, they indicated that the Masculine-Feminine SP, in whom femininity was explicitly suggested, received the weakest ratings on a series of achievement-related attributes and the Masculine-Neutral SP the strongest.     

Inferences about the morality of an aggressor: the role of perceived motive

The research investigated perceivers' inferences about the morality of target persons who engaged in aggressive behavior. Across several experiments, inferences about the morality of an aggressor were based more on the perceived motives of the target than on the presence of facilitating situational forces. For example, when a target's aggression was facilitated by personal rewards for aggression (instrumental aggression), perceivers inferred more negative motives and attributed lower morality to the target than when the target's aggression was facilitated by situational provocation (reactive aggression). The results suggest that perceived motives play an important role in dispositional inference and pose a problem for models that focus primarily on perceived causality, assumptions about base rates (consensus), or diagnosticity.