Transition structure versus commitment in sequential subjective probability revision

When Ss revise subjective probabilities, in the light of new evidence, a common finding is that they are conservative with respect to Bayes' theorem; revisions are too small. One kind of hypothesis to account for this is ‘model specific’, assuming a breakdown in an otherwise potentially Bayesian process. The other kind assumes that statistically irrelevant, task-specific information is processed. An example of the latter is the commitment hypothesis, assuming a commitment building up to the indications of early evidence, causing Ss to lag behind Bayes' theorem in their later judgements. Evidence is presented suggesting that Ss are not necessarily sensitive to mere sub-sets of a sequence, but that this form of suboptimality may result from overall sequence structure; specifically from a bias against long runs of like evidence. This would fit with findings from other areas of research, and would suggest that there is a general form of suboptimality operating which is relevant to all sequential processing tasks.     

On the discrepant results in synchrony judgment and temporal-order judgment tasks: a quantitative model

Research on the perception of temporal order uses either temporal-order judgment (TOJ) tasks or synchrony judgment (SJ) tasks, in both of which two stimuli are presented with some temporal delay and observers must judge the order of presentation. Results generally differ across tasks, raising concerns about whether they measure the same processes. We present a model including sensory and decisional parameters that places these tasks in a common framework that allows studying their implications on observed performance. TOJ tasks imply specific decisional components that explain the discrepancy of results obtained with TOJ and SJ tasks. The model is also tested against published data on audiovisual temporal-order judgments, and the fit is satisfactory, although model parameters are more accurately estimated with SJ tasks. Measures of latent point of subjective simultaneity and latent sensitivity are defined that are invariant across tasks by isolating the sensory parameters governing observed performance, whereas decisional parameters vary across tasks and account for observed differences across them. Our analyses concur with other evidence advising against the use of TOJ tasks in research on perception of temporal order.     

Using experiential optimization to build lexical representations

To account for natural variability in cognitive processing, it is standard practice to optimize a model’s parameters by fitting it to behavioral data. Although most language-related theories acknowledge a large role for experience in language processing, variability reflecting that knowledge is usually ignored when evaluating a model’s fit to representative data. We fit language-based behavioral data using experiential optimization, a method that optimizes the materials that a model is given while retaining the learning and processing mechanisms of standard practice. Rather than using default materials, experiential optimization selects the optimal linguistic sources to create a memory representation that maximizes task performance. We demonstrate performance on multiple benchmark tasks by optimizing the experience on which a model’s representation is based.

     

Modeling simple driving tasks with a one-boundary diffusion model

A one-boundary diffusion model was applied to the data from two experiments in which subjects were performing a simple simulated driving task. In the first experiment, the same subjects were tested on two driving tasks using a PC-based driving simulator and the psychomotor vigilance test. The diffusion model fit the response time distributions for each task and individual subject well. Model parameters were found to correlate across tasks, which suggests that common component processes were being tapped in the three tasks. The model was also fit to a distracted driving experiment of Cooper and Strayer (Human Factors, 50, 893–902, 2008). Results showed that distraction altered performance by affecting the rate of evidence accumulation (drift rate) and/or increasing the boundary settings. This provides an interpretation of cognitive distraction whereby conversing on a cell phone diverts attention from the normal accumulation of information in the driving environment.     

Testing the validity of conflict drift-diffusion models for use in estimating cognitive processes: A parameter-recovery study

Researchers and clinicians are interested in estimating individual differences in the ability to process conflicting information. Conflict processing is typically assessed by comparing behavioral measures like RTs or error rates from conflict tasks. However, these measures are hard to interpret because they can be influenced by additional processes like response caution or bias. This limitation can be circumvented by employing cognitive models to decompose behavioral data into components of underlying decision processes, providing better specificity for investigating individual differences. A new class of drift-diffusion models has been developed for conflict tasks, presenting a potential tool to improve analysis of individual differences in conflict processing. However, measures from these models have not been validated for use in experiments with limited data collection. The present study assessed the validity of these models with a parameter-recovery study to determine whether and under what circumstances the models provide valid measures of cognitive processing. Three models were tested: the dual-stage two-phase model (Hübner, Steinhauser, & Lehle, Psychological Review, 117(3), 759–784, 2010), the shrinking spotlight model (White, Ratcliff, & Starns, Cognitive Psychology, 63(4), 210–238, 2011), and the diffusion model for conflict tasks (Ulrich, Schröter, Leuthold, & Birngruber, Cogntive Psychology, 78, 148–174, 2015). The validity of the model parameters was assessed using different methods of fitting the data and different numbers of trials. The results show that each model has limitations in recovering valid parameters, but they can be mitigated by adding constraints to the model. Practical recommendations are provided for when and how each model can be used to analyze data and provide measures of processing in conflict tasks.     

Developmental inter-relationships among concrete operational tasks: An investigation of Piaget's stage concept

One hundred and one primary school children were tested on eight concrete operational tasks. Each child's performance on each task was classified as either preoperational, transitional, or fully operational. Cross-classification tables were constructed showing the joint classification of children's performance on all possible pairs of the eight tasks. Two models of intertask relations, Wohlwill's (The study of behavioral development. New York: Academic Press, 1973) divergent-decalage and reciprocal-interaction patterns, were evaluated for their fit to the cross-classification data using χ² goodness-of-fit procedures. Instances of both these patterns were identified in the data. The findings give some support to Flavell and Wohlwill's modification of Piaget's stage concept, in which individual groupings (e.g., seriation) are the structural basis of the interrelationships among concrete operational tasks. Tasks based on the same rule showed a degree of developmental interdependence (reciprocal-interaction patterns), while tasks based on different rules appeared to develop independently (divergent-decalage patterns). However, only one-half of the cross-classification tables were adequately described by either the divergent-decalage or the reciprocal-interaction patterns.     

Fitting model-based psychometric functions to simultaneity and temporal-order judgment data: MATLAB and R routines

Research on temporal-order perception uses temporal-order judgment (TOJ) tasks or synchrony judgment (SJ) tasks in their binary SJ2 or ternary SJ3 variants. In all cases, two stimuli are presented with some temporal delay, and observers judge the order of presentation. Arbitrary psychometric functions are typically fitted to obtain performance measures such as sensitivity or the point of subjective simultaneity, but the parameters of these functions are uninterpretable. We describe routines in MATLAB and R that fit model-based functions whose parameters are interpretable in terms of the processes underlying temporal-order and simultaneity judgments and responses. These functions arise from an independent-channels model assuming arrival latencies with exponential distributions and a trichotomous decision space. Different routines fit data separately for SJ2, SJ3, and TOJ tasks, jointly for any two tasks, or also jointly for the three tasks (for common cases in which two or even the three tasks were used with the same stimuli and participants). Additional routines provide bootstrap p-values and confidence intervals for estimated parameters. A further routine is included that obtains performance measures from the fitted functions. An R package for Windows and source code of the MATLAB and R routines are available as Supplementary Files.     

Aging and individual differences in rapid two-choice decisions

The effects of aging on performance were examined in signal detection, letter discrimination, brightness discrimination, and recognition memory, with each subject tested on all four tasks. Ratcliff’s (1978) diffusion model was fit to the data for each subject for each task, and it provided a good account of accuracy and the distributions of correct and error response times. The model’s analysis of the components of processing showed that aging had three main effects: The nondecision components of processing were slower and the decision criteria were more conservative for 60- to 74-year-old and 75- to 85-year-old subjects than for college students, but the quality of the evidence on which decisions were based was as good for the older subjects as for college students on some of the tasks. Individual differences among subjects in components of processing tended to be preserved across the tasks, as was shown by strong correlations across the tasks in the parameters of the model that represent the components of processing. For example, if the evidence on which a subject’s decisions were based was good in one task, it tended to be good in all four tasks.     

Evaluation of Model Fit in Cognitive Diagnosis Models

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) estimate student ability profiles using latent attributes. Model fit to the data needs to be ascertained in order to determine whether inferences from CDMs are valid. This study investigated the usefulness of some popular model fit statistics to detect CDM fit including relative fit indices (AIC, BIC, and CAIC), and absolute fit indices (RMSEA2, ABS(fcor) and MAX(χ²_jj′)). These fit indices were assessed under different CDM settings with respect to Q-matrix misspecification and CDM misspecification. Results showed that relative fit indices selected the correct DINA model most of the times and selected the correct G-DINA model well across most conditions. Absolute fit indices rejected the true DINA model if the Q-matrix was misspecified in any way. Absolute fit indices rejected the true G-DINA model whenever the Q-matrix was under-specified. RMSEA2 could be artificially low when the Q-matrix was over-specified.     

Using hidden Markov model to uncover processing states from eye movements in information search tasks

We study how processing states alternate during information search tasks. Inference is carried out with a discriminative hidden Markov model (dHMM) learned from eye movement data, measured in an experiment consisting of three task types: (i) simple word search, (ii) finding a sentence that answers a question and (iii) choosing a subjectively most interesting title from a list of ten titles. The results show that eye movements contain necessary information for determining the task type. After training, the dHMM predicted the task for test data with 60.2% accuracy (pure chance 33.3%). Word search and subjective interest conditions were easier to predict than the question–answer condition. The dHMM that best fitted our data segmented each task type into three hidden states. The three processing states were identified by comparing the parameters of the dHMM states to literature on eye movement research. A scanning type of eye behavior was observed in the beginning of the tasks. Next, participants tended to shift to states reflecting reading type of eye movements, and finally they ended the tasks in states which we termed as the decision states.     

Positive Automatic Cognitions Mediate the Relationship Between Personality and Trait Positive Affect

Positive affect (PA) has emerged as a key well-being facet and a powerful predictor of physical and psychological well-being. One of the strongest predictors of PA is personality, particularly neuroticism and extraversion. However, the mechanisms via which personality affects PA are not well-understood. Consistent with theories that accord cognitive factors a role in mediating the relationship between personality and outcomes, we tested whether positive automatic thoughts (PATs) mediated the relationship between neuroticism, extraversion, and PA among 199 college students (137 women, 70% White, 66% first and second year students, mean age = 24.13, SD = 8.86). Consistent with hypotheses, structural equation modeling indicated that PATs fully mediated the relationship between both neuroticism and extraversion and PA. The structural model fit the data well, χ²/df = 2.33, CFI = .96, SRMR = .07, RMSEA = .08 (90% CI: .06, .10), AIC = 172.45, and accounted for 58% of the variance in PA. An alternative model in which personality predicted PA, which in turn predicted PATs, did not provide as good a fit to the data, χ²/df = 3.03, CFI = .94, SRMR = .09, RMSEA = .10 (90% CI: .08, .12), AIC = 207.40. Models in which negative automatic thoughts (NATs) were construed as fully [χ²/df = 4.46, CFI = .95, SRMR = .08, RMSEA = .13 (90% CI: .11, .16)] or partially [χ²/df = 4.04, CFI = .96, SRMR = .06, RMSEA = .12 (90% CI: .10, .15)] mediating the relationship between neuroticism and negative affect did not provide a good fit to the data. A final model in which negative affect was tested a mediator of the relationship between neuroticism and NATs also did not fit the data well, χ²/df = 4.03, CFI = .96, SRMR = .07, RMSEA = .12 (90% CI: .10, .15).     

Relationships among motor skill,perceived self-competence,fitness, and physical activity in young adults

PurposeThis large-scale, exploratory study sought to examine the associations between motor skill proficiency (MSP), perceived self-competence (PC), physical fitness (PF), and self-reported physical activity (PA) to assess the assumption that relationships among these variables found in childhood and adolescence persist into young-adulthood. Specifically, predictors of PF and PA were assessed. Additionally, the contributions body mass index (BMI) and gender made to these relationships, as well as that of process- versus product-oriented motor skills data, were studied. Finally, how these relationships differed by gender was explored.MethodsParticipants’ (n = 448) MSP was assessed using select measures from the TGMD-2 and the BOT-2, while PF was evaluated using the FitnessGram. Participants also completed surveys to assess PC (SPPCS), PA (past-week MAQ), and demographic information. Height and weight were collected to calculate BMI.ResultsModels predicting physical fitness had good fit to the observed data, with perceived athletic competence, locomotor skill, upper-limb coordination, BMI, and gender accounting for about 75% (R² = 0.748) of aerobic PF variance and about 48% (R² = 0.476) of variance in push-up performances. About 18% (R² = 0.178) of variance in curl-up performances was predicted by perceived athletic competence, locomotor skill, upper-limb coordination, and PA. The PA model demonstrated weaker predictive power, with only about 10% (R² = 0.097) of variance explained. When considering male and female models separately, female models demonstrated better fit when predicting all PF and PA outcome variables. BMI and gender operated as significant predictors to differing degrees across the various models.ConclusionsThere is compelling evidence to believe relationships found among MSP, PC, PF, and PA in childhood and adolescence also exist in early adulthood. However, differences in the roles of gender and physical fitness versus physical activity are likely to exist.     

Bayesian contour integration

The process by which the human visual system parses an image into contours, surfaces, and objects—perceptual grouping—has proven difficult to capture in a rigorous and general theory. A natural candidate for such a theory is Bayesian probability theory, which provides optimal interpretations of data under conditions of uncertainty. But the fit of Bayesian theory to human grouping judgments has never been tested, in part because methods for expressing grouping hypotheses probabilistically have not been available. This paper presents such methods for the case ofcontour integration—that is, the aggregation of a sequence of visual items into a “virtual curve.” Two experiments are reported in which human subjects were asked to group ambiguous configurations of dots (in Experiment 1, a sequence of five dots could be judged to contain a “corner” or not; in Experiment 2, an arrangement of six dots could be judged to fall into two disjoint contours or one smooth contour). The Bayesian theory accounts extremely well for subjects’ judgments, explaining more than 75% of the variance in both tasks. The theory thus provides a far more quantitatively precise account of human contour integration than has been previously possible, allowing a very precise calculation of the subjective goodness of a virtual chain of dots. Because Bayesian theory is inferentially optimal, this finding suggests a “rational justification,” and hence possibly an evolutionary rationale, for some of the rules of perceptual grouping.     

A within-subjects analysis of the relationship between memory span and processing rate in short-term memory

A within-subjects analysis of the relationship between memory span and processing rate for four stimulus classes in short-term memory indicated that while the two factors are correlated when averaged data is considered, as shown by Cavanagh (Psychological Review, 1972, 79, 525–530), the strength of the relationship for individual subjects varies from zero to unity. The intersubject correlations for each stimulus class were not consistent with the view that a unified model may be advanced to account for performance in recall and recognition tasks in shortterm memory.     

Integrating Impairments in Reaction Time and Executive Function Using a Diffusion Model Framework

Using Ratcliff’s diffusion model and ex-Gaussian decomposition, we directly evaluate the role individual differences in reaction time (RT) distribution components play in the prediction of inhibitory control and working memory (WM) capacity in children with and without ADHD. Children with (n?=?91, $ \overline{\mathrm{x}} $ age?=?10.2 years, 67 % male) and without ADHD (n?=?62, $ \overline{\mathrm{x}} $ age?=?10.6 years, 46 % male) completed four tasks of WM and a stop signal reaction time (SSRT) task. Children with ADHD had smaller WM capacities and less efficient inhibitory control. Diffusion model analyses revealed that children with ADHD had slower drift rates (v) and faster non-decision times (Ter), but there were no group differences in boundary separations (a). Similarly, using an ex-Gaussian approach, children with ADHD had larger τ values than non-ADHD controls, but did not differ in μ or σ distribution components. Drift rate mediated the association between ADHD status and performance on both inhibitory control and WM capacity. τ also mediated the ADHD-executive function impairment associations; however, models were a poorer fit to the data. Impaired performance on RT and executive functioning tasks has long been associated with childhood ADHD. Both are believed to be important cognitive mechanisms to the disorder. We demonstrate here that drift rate, or the speed at which information accumulates towards a decision, is able to explain both.     

Regulatory fit at work: gravitational effects and associations with employee well-being

ABSTRACT

Using a task approach, this study examined the extent to which employee regulatory focus would “gravitate” employees towards promotion- versus prevention-oriented tasks within their jobs, and whether a subsequent regulatory fit/misfit would be associated with their well-being (i.e., mental health and job satisfaction). In a pre-study among 37 employees, we determined the regulatory focus of work tasks from the Netherlands Skill Survey, which are relevant to the general working population, resulting in a selection of 7 promotion and 11 prevention tasks. For our main study, we used the Dutch Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences (LISS) panel and collected data from 1,606 respondents. In 2011, we collected respondents’ regulatory focus and in 2012, we collected their work tasks and well-being. Promotion-oriented employees considered both promotion and prevention tasks to be highly relevant in their jobs, and this relevance was associated with their mental health. Prevention-oriented employees, however, did not respond to the relevance of promotion or prevention tasks and generally reported lower well-being, irrespective of the regulatory focus of their tasks. We tentatively conclude that promotion focus gravitates employees towards job with a richer task content, containing both promotion and prevention tasks.     

Repetitive Thinking in Social Anxiety Disorder: Are Anticipatory Processing and Post-Event Processing Facets of an Underlying Unidimensional Construct?

Existing literature suggests that anticipatory processing and post-event processing—two repetitive thinking processes linked to social anxiety disorder (SAD)—might be better conceptualized as facets of an underlying unidimensional repetitive thinking construct. The current study tested this by examining potential factor structures underlying anticipatory processing and post-event processing. Baseline data from two randomized controlled trials, consisting of 306 participants with SAD who completed anticipatory processing and post-event processing measures in relation to a speech task, were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. A bifactor model with a General Repetitive Thinking factor and two group factors corresponding to anticipatory processing and post-event processing best fit with the data. Further analyses indicated an optimal model would include only the General Repetitive Thinking factor (reflecting anticipatory processing and a specific aspect of post-event processing) and Post-event Processing group factor (reflecting another specific aspect of post-event processing that is separable), providing evidence against a unidimensional account of repetitive thinking in SAD. Analyses also indicated that the General Repetitive Thinking factor had moderately large associations with social anxiety and life interference (rs = .43 to .47), suggesting its maladaptive nature. The separable Post-event Processing group factor only had small associations with social anxiety (rs = .16 to .27) and was not related to life interference (r = .11), suggesting it may not, in itself, be a maladaptive process. Future research that further characterises the bifactor model components and tests their utility has the potential to improve the conceptualisation and assessment of repetitive thinking in SAD.     

Age-Related Differences in Acquisition of Perceptual-Motor Skills: Working Memory as a Mediator

ABSTRACT

Aging is associated with reduced performance on information processing speed, memory, and executive functions tasks. Although older adults are also less apt in acquiring new perceptual-motor skills, it is unclear whether and how skill acquisition difficulties are associated with age-related general cognitive differences. We addressed this question by examining structural relations among measures of cognitive resources (working memory) and indices of perceptual-motor skill acquisition (pursuit rotor and mirror tracing) in 96 healthy adults aged 19–80 years of age. Three competing structural models were tested: a single (common) factor model, a dual correlated factors model, and a hierarchical dual-factor model. The third model provided the best fit to the data, indicating age differences in simple perceptual-motor skill are partially mediated by more complex abilities.     

A class of k-modes algorithms for extracting knowledge structures from data

One of the most crucial issues in knowledge space theory is the construction of the so-called knowledge structures. In the present paper, a new data-driven procedure for large data sets is described, which overcomes some of the drawbacks of the already existing methods. The procedure, called k-states, is an incremental extension of the k-modes algorithm, which generates a sequence of locally optimal knowledge structures of increasing size, among which a “best” model is selected. The performance of k-states is compared to other two procedures in both a simulation study and an empirical application. In the former, k-states displays a better accuracy in reconstructing knowledge structures; in the latter, the structure extracted by k-states obtained a better fit.     

Computationally intensive methods warrant reconsideration of pedagogy in statistics

Computationally intensive methods of statistical inference do not fit the current canon of pedagogy in statistics. To accommodate these methods and the logic underlying them, I propose seven pedagogical principles: (1) Define inferential statistics as techniques for reckoning with chance. (2) Distinguish three types of research: sample surveys, in which statistics affords generalization from the cases studied; experiments, in which statistics detects systematic differences among the batches of data obtained in the several conditions; and correlational studies, in which statistics detects systematic associations between variables. (3) Teach random-sampling theory in the context of sample surveys, augmenting the conventional treatment with bootstrapping. Regarding experimentation, (4) note that random assignment fosters internal but not external validity, (5) explain the general logic for testing a null model, and (6) teach randomization tests as well ast,F, and χ². (7) Regarding correlational studies, acknowledge the problems of applying inferential statistics in the absence of deliberately introduced randomness.