儿童期逆境与基因对男性服刑人员攻击性的影响

暴力再犯危险性评估是当今再犯危险性评估工作中的重点, 其中, 攻击性是服刑人员暴力再犯行为稳定的个体因素。对攻击性进行研究, 有助于预防和降低服刑人员在假释或出狱后的暴力再犯行为风险, 关系社会的长治久安。研究表明, 遭受儿童期逆境和携带易感基因(如MAOA-uVNTR低活性等位基因)是导致攻击行为的重要因素。但在现有的研究中, 儿童期逆境的计分方式局限于简单的线性加总, 或所依据的统计模型忽略逆境各维度之间的交互作用和非线性关系; 在服刑人员攻击性的评估中未考虑攻击性的亚类, 而且多使用自报告的量表测评, 这些问题制约了评估的有效预测力。本研究拟通过建立潜在类别模型, 分析男性服刑人员和普通成年人群在儿童期逆境上的亚类; 以实验与问卷测量结果、司法行为记录作为攻击性指标, 揭示儿童期逆境如何影响个体的主动性攻击、反应性攻击及暴力犯罪行为, 重点探讨儿童期逆境潜在类别对主动性攻击和反应性攻击的影响, 以及MAOA-uVNTR、COMT Val158Met、5-HTTLPR基因多态性在其中的调节作用。研究结果有助于找出高攻击性个体的生物遗传指标, 从而发现受儿童期逆境经历影响的易感人群, 为暴力行为的风险预测以及针对暴力攻击行为的行为矫正和相关药物设计提供理论和实证参考, 提高相关工作的效率。     

Self-reported personality traits and disorders (DSM-IV) and risk of criminal recidivism: a prospective study

Assessment and management of criminal offenders require valid methods to recognize personality psychopathology and other risk and protective factors for recidivism. We prospectively explored the association between dimensional and categorical measures of personality disorder (PD) measured with the DSM-IV and ICD-10 Personality Questionnaire (DIP-Q, Ottosson et al., 1995) and registered reconvictions in adult offenders. One hundred and sixty-eight offenders consecutively referred for pre-sentencing forensic psychiatric evaluation in Sweden during 1995-1996 completed DIP-Q self-reports. The subjects received different types of sanctions and were followed for an average of 36 months after release from prison, discharge from a forensic psychiatric hospital, or onset of nondetaining sentences. Age-adjusted odds ratios revealed a 4.8 times higher risk for any recidivism and a 3.7 times higher risk for violent recidivism among subjects whose self-reports suggested a categorical diagnosis of antisocial PD as compared to offenders without antisocial PD. The remaining nine categorical DSM-IV PD diagnoses were not significantly related to recidivism. In dimensional analyses, each additional antisocial and schizoid PD symptom endorsed by participants at baseline increased the risk for violent reoffending. Our results suggest a relationship between self-reported behavioral instability and interpersonal dysfunction captured primarily by DSM-IV antisocial and schizoid PD constructs, and criminal re-offending also in a multi-problem sample of identified offenders.     

Assessing risk of reoffending in adolescents who have committed a sexual offense: the accuracy of clinical judgments after completion of risk assessment instruments

As courts often rely on clinicians when differentiating between sexually abusive youth at a low versus high risk of reoffense, understanding factors that contribute to accuracy in assessment of risk is imperative. The present study built on existing research by examining (1) the accuracy of clinical judgments of risk made after completing risk assessment instruments, (2) whether instrument-informed clinical judgments made with a high degree of confidence are associated with greater accuracy, and (3) the risk assessment instruments and subscales most predictive of clinical judgments. Raters assessed each youth's (n = 166) risk of reoffending after completing the SAVRY and J-SOAP-II. Raters were not able to predict detected cases of either sexual recidivism or nonsexual violent recidivism above chance, and a high degree of rater confidence was not associated with higher levels of accuracy. Total scores on the J-SOAP-II were predictive of instrument-informed clinical judgments of sexual risk, and total scores on the SAVRY of nonsexual risk.     

A theoretically informed meta-analysis of the risk for general and violent recidivism for mentally disordered offenders

Mentally disordered offenders (MDOs) pose a significant challenge for forensic and correctional staff charged with managing them in a safe and humane manner. As with non-disordered offenders, it is important to identify the factors that are predictive of recidivism and can serve as treatment targets for MDOs. The present meta-analysis evaluated the relative predictive validity of the risk/need domains from the General Personality and Cognitive Social Learning (GPCSL) perspective and variables taken from the clinical perspective. The search yielded a total of 126 studies reporting on 96 unique samples (N = 23,900). Results indicated that all risk/need domains under the GPCSL perspective were significantly related to both general and violent recidivism. In contrast, the majority of clinical variables (with the exception of antisocial personality/psychopathy) were not predictive of either outcome. These findings emphasize the importance of identifying appropriate risk factors for MDOs.     

Verläufe bei sexuellen Tötungen

This article summarizes main results of studies on forensic psychiatric court reports on 166 men who had been persecuted between 1963 and 1991 for a sexual offence leading to the death of the victim. Comparing perpetrators with a single victim and those with multiple victims we found similar results as in two previous studies with smaller samples: Multiple sexual homicide perpetrators showed more often sexual sadism and other paraphilias, as well as antisocial, schizoid and sadistic personality disorders. Follow-up data from the federal criminal records could be obtained for 139 offenders. Ninety perpetrators had been released after a mean detention of 12.2 years, whereas the 49 offenders who were still in prison or forensic psychiatric hospitals had been detained for a mean period of 20.6 years. The non-released offenders showed more often paraphilias as well as antisocial and sadistic personality disorders than the released perpetrators. Paraphilias and antisocial personality traits are empirically well proven risk factors for criminal recidivism with sexual reoffences. In addition, the non-released sexual homicide perpetrators had higher scores in all applied risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, Static-99). Among the released offenders only 1.1% (n=1) reoffended with a completed homicide and 2.2% (n=2) with attempted homicide. The recidivism rates with sexual and other violent reoffences in this sample of sexual homicide perpetrators were similar to those in a large meta-analysis on recidivism in sexual offenders by Hanson and Morton-Bourgon (4). Since well established risk factors had apparently been “used-up” for the decisions about release or non-release, in the follow-up data about the released offenders only age at the sexual homicide and age at the time of release were found as risk factors for recidivism with any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reoffence, i.e. the younger the offender at the time of the homicide and the younger at the time of release, the more likely is the risk of violent reoffending.     

Communicating the Risk of Violent and Offending Behavior: Review and Introduction to this Special Issue

How to communicate risk of recidivism in correctional and forensic contexts has been a subject of scholarly discussion for two decades. This emerging literature, however, is sparse compared with studies on the assessment of risk for violent and offending behavior. In this special issue of Behavioral Sciences and the Law, we have gathered together empirical and review papers exemplifying promising directions and methodologies. We begin with a review of the state of the field, and lessons that can be drawn from research into medical risk assessment and risk communication, finding that many of the same principles apply to the forensic context. How risks are framed, and how numerate assessors are, affects how risk information is understood and applied. We discuss the existing research bearing on these issues, as well as the conceptual, practical, empirical, and legal implications of communicating risk using numerical or categorical risk terms. Along with the seven articles in this volume, we suggest directions for future research on measuring and communicating change, understanding and managing the statistical literacy of those who use and communicate risk assessments, and developing a theoretical framework for forensic risk communication research. We hope this volume will help integrate and invigorate research into forensic risk communication. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the validity of anger regulation problems, interpersonal style, and disturbed mental state for predicting inpatient violence

Research has been conducted to try to identify risk factors to help predict which patients will be violent during psychiatric hospitalization. Despite the relatively large amount of research conducted, it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions, as the studies vary considerably in study design, methods used, and choice of outcome measures. Studies also tend to focus on risk prediction, even though risk management is the primary aim of clinical practice in mental health services and few studies have focused on a theoretical basis for understanding violence. This study assessed the predictive validity of brief assessment scales in a sample of 94 forensic inpatients who had been inpatient for a median of 521 days, to test the hypotheses that anger regulation problems, interpersonal style, and disturbed mental state would be linked to increased violence risk in a forensic hospital during a hospital stay. The outcome variables for this study were physical violence against another and/or clear threats of physical violence. The results of this study provide support for the hypotheses, and this remained the case after controlling for age, gender, length of stay, and presence of major mental disorder. The findings should not only assist clinicians with assessment and management of risk but also support the reconceptualizing of risk prediction research to reflect the task of clinical risk management.     

Will They Do It Again? Predicting Sex-Offense Recidivism

This article reviews the empirical research on the prediction of reoffending among sexual offenders. The major predictors of sexual-offense recidivism are factors related to sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, previous sex crimes) and, to a lesser extent, criminal lifestyle (e.g., antisocial personality disorder, total number of prior offenses). The factors that predict general recidivism among sex offenders are the same as the factors that predict general recidivism among nonsexual criminals (e.g., juvenile delinquency, prior violent offenses). Given that there are special predictors of sexual recidivism, evaluators should consider separately the risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.     

Adjusting risk of recidivism: do judicial departures worsen or improve recidivism prediction under the Federal Sentencing Guidelines?

A limited amount of research exists examining the ability of clinical or intuitive adjustments of formalistic methods of decision-making to improve upon predictive accuracy beyond that of the original measure. Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and the departure decisions of federal judges, the recidivism predictive utilities of two measures were compared. The two measures were the Criminal History category, based on the Federal Sentencing Guidelines (a formalistic procedure), and a re-coded measure of criminal history derived from the sentences actually imposed by judges after they departed from the Guidelines upwards or downwards for recidivism reasons (an adjustment to the formalistic procedure). Both a 10 year post-sentencing recidivism follow-up and a 6 year uniform follow-up period suggested that the Criminal History category performed poorly in predicting recidivism for this offender population, and that judicial departures not only failed to improve, but actually worsened, the predictive accuracy of pre-departure judgments. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

De la prédiction à la compréhension : recension des dimensions psychologiques de la Statique-99

Although widely used in North America, actuarial risk assessment tools have been criticized for their inability to capture the causal dynamics leading to criminal recidivism. In this article, we present a conceptual framework for linking static, historical risk factors to the psychological vulnerabilities that are targeted in offender treatment. To illustrate this model, a literature review was conducted that identified the psychological dimensions that underlie the items of the Static-99, the most widely used actuarial scale for predicting sexual recidivism. Two key dimensions were identified: sexual criminality, indicative of sexual deviance and/or sexual preoccupation, and general criminality, indicative of antisocial traits and/or psychopathy.     

Pornography use and sexual aggression: the impact of frequency and type of pornography use on recidivism among sexual offenders

In this study, we examined the unique contribution of pornography consumption to the longitudinal prediction of criminal recidivism in a sample of 341 child molesters. We specifically tested the hypothesis, based on predictions informed by the confluence model of sexual aggression that pornography will be a risk factor for recidivism only for those individuals classified as relatively high risk for re-offending. Pornography use (frequency and type) was assessed through self-report and recidivism was measured using data from a national database from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. Indices of recidivism, which were assessed up to 15 years after release, included an overall criminal recidivism index, as well as subcategories focusing on violent (including sexual) recidivism and sexual recidivism alone. Results for both frequency and type of pornography use were generally consistent with our predictions. Most importantly, after controlling for general and specific risk factors for sexual aggression, pornography added significantly to the prediction of recidivism. Statistical interactions indicated that frequency of pornography use was primarily a risk factor for higher-risk offenders, when compared with lower-risk offenders, and that content of pornography (i.e., pornography containing deviant content) was a risk factor for all groups. The importance of conceptualizing particular risk factors (e.g., pornography), within the context of other individual characteristics is discussed.     

Field validity of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in sex offender risk assessment

Several studies have concluded that scores from Hare's (2003) Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) predict reoffense among sexual offenders, but most of those studies examined the predictive validity of scores from trained research staff, not clinicians in the field scoring the measure as part of actual forensic assessments. Therefore, we examined the field validity of PCL-R scores that forensic evaluators assigned to 333 male sexual offenders who underwent evaluations during a civil commitment selection process. Overall, no PCL-R score was a significant predictor of sexually violent recidivism. Facet 4 was the only PCL-R score with an area under the curve (AUC) greater than .50 (AUC = .53, p = .85) and the only PCL-R score that approached statistical significance for predicting the combined category of violent or sexually violent offending (AUC = .63, p = .08). However, scores from a subset of evaluators revealed stronger predictive effects, indicating that predictive validity was higher for scores from some evaluators than others. Overall, these results suggest that the stronger predictive validity values in controlled research studies may not apply to all evaluators when the PCL-R is administered in the field.     

Jugendliche Sexualstraftäter: Spezialfälle der Prognoseerstellung?

This study compared a sample of 273 juvenile (aged 14 to under 18), 178 adolescent (aged 18 to under 21) and 273 adult (older than 20 years) male sex offenders modus operandi (or MO, the way in which they committed their offenses), frequency of recidivism and predicted recidivism via the static-99. In terms of the frequencies of the MO aspects we found that juveniles and adolescents differed significantly from adult sexual offenders. However, concerning the frequency of sexual violent behaviors, adolescents committed more severe offenses in contrast to the two other groups. The comparison of recidivism rates indicated that adolescent sexual offenders were significantly less likely to commit a new sexual offense, but were considerably more likely to commit a non-sexual violent offense compared to adult sexual offenders. For juvenile offenders, only few static-99 variables were predictive of future recidivism in comparison to the other groups, suggesting that the static-99 may only have a restricted utility in juvenile offenders. Further, juvenile offenders risk levels were found to fall primarily within the medium risk group making individual differentiation of potential risk difficult. It is suggested that additional predictors, which help to differentiate young sexual offenders must be investigated.     

Mental illness, criminal risk factors and parole release decisions

Research has not examined whether higher rates of parole denial among inmates with mental illness (MI) are the result of the increased presence of criminal risk factors among this population. Employing a representative sample of inmates with (n = 219) and without (n = 184) MI receiving parole release decisions in 2007, this study tested whether the central eight risk factors for recidivism considered in parole release decisions intervened in the relationship between MI and parole release. MI was associated with possession of a substance use disorder, antisocial personality disorder and violent charges while incarcerated; however, these factors were not related to release decisions. MI was found to have neither a direct nor an indirect effect on release decisions. While results indicate that release decisions appear, to some extent, to be evidence-based, they also suggest considerable discretion is being implemented by parole board members in release decisions above and beyond consideration of criminal risk factors.     

Evaluation and Applications of the Clinically Significant Change Method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender Version: Implications for Risk-Change Communication

We examined the use of the clinically significant change (CSC) method with the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO), and its implications for risk communication, in a combined sample of 945 treated sexual offenders from three international settings, followed up for a minimum 5 years post-release. The reliable change (RC) index was used to identify thresholds of clinically meaningful change and to create four CSC groups (already okay, recovered, improved, unchanged) based on VRS-SO dynamic scores and amount of change made. Outcome analyses demonstrated important CSC-group differences in 5-year rates of sexual and violent recidivism. However, when baseline risk was controlled via Cox regression survival analysis, the pattern and magnitude of CSC-group differences in sexual and violent recidivism changed to suggest that observed variation in recidivism base rates could be at least partly explained by pre-existing group differences in risk level. Implications for communication of risk-change information and applications to clinical practice are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

L’intelligence artificielle peut-elle aider à estimer le risque de récidive dans les comportements violents ?

In forensic psychiatry, magistrates raise the question of the existence of a risk of recidivism and dangerousness to psychiatric experts. Follow-up studies in forensic psychiatry showed that the psychiatric elements predictive of recidivism were mainly related to serious mental illnesses, toxic consumption, addictions, high levels of impulsivity, low insight, associated personality disorders, in particular antisocial personality disorders. There are also protective factors, in particular the observance of treatments. Given the complexity of psychiatric and criminological risk factors and protection, can artificial intelligence (AI) help psychiatrists and magistrates to improve the predictivity of recidivism?MethodsSystematic review of the literature on AI applications in the prediction of recidivism in forensic psychiatry, conducted according to PRISMA criteria, using the: “Artificial Intelligence”, “Recidivism”, “Personality Disorder”, “Impulsive” Behavior”, “Alcohol abuse”, “Drug Abuse”, “Schizophrenia”, “Bipolar disorder” on the PubMed, Science Direct, Clinical Trial and Google Scholar databases.ResultsThe vast majority of studies come from legal or computer reviews and very few from medical databases. The studies evaluating the AI in Forensic Psychiatry most often used Machine Learning based on sociodemographic, sociological and criminological data, notably the age of the first offense and the number of previous convictions. To date, there are very few studies evaluating psychiatric parameters, focusing on psychopathic personality disorders.Discussion/conclusionThe applications of the AI in Forensic Psychiatry are still very premature. However, some psychiatric criteria should be more prominent in this field, especially those from Webster's HCR-20 and Hare PCL-R scales. The challenge will also be to find relevant behavioral, psychological and psychiatric keywords to include in AI.     

The sexually violent offender: Impulsive or ritualistic?

The article presents and develops a paradigm of serial, sexual offenders derived from our criminal investigative analysis experience and research. The paradigm delineates two major categories of sexually violent offenders. The Impulsive Offender is described as being criminally unsophisticated, and largely reactive in terms of his victim selection and crime-scene behavior. It is observed that this type of offender is often characterized by a diverse criminal history, rather generic sexual interests, and significant levels of physical violence. The Ritualistic Offender, in contrast, is characterized by diverse paraphilic interests, a pervasive and defining fantasy life, and a carefully developed and executed set of crime-scene behaviors. These two distinctions are examined as they inform the analysis of a sexually violent crime by criminal investigative analysts as well as the clinical evaluation of these offenders within a forensic context. The potential utility of this type of paradigmatic delineation for risk assessments and for assessing the potential for future recidivism is also highlighted.     

Psychopathy and the predictive validity of the PCL-R: an international perspective

Its controversial past notwithstanding, psychopathy has emerged as one of the most important clinical constructs in the criminal justice and mental health systems. One reason for the surge in theoretical and applied interest in the disorder is the development and widespread adoption of reliable and valid methods for its measurement. The Hare PCL-R provides researchers and clinicians with a common metric for the assessment of psychopathy, and has led to a surge in replicable and meaningful findings relevant to the issue of risk for recidivism and violence, among other things. Most of the research thus far has been based on North American samples of offenders and forensic psychiatric patients. We summarize this research and compare it with findings from several other countries, including England and Sweden. We conclude that the ability of the PCL-R to predict recidivism, violence, and treatment outcome has considerable cross-cultural generalizability, and that the PCL-R and its derivatives play a major role in the understanding and prediction of crime and violence.