A hierarchical state space approach to affective dynamics

Linear dynamical system theory is a broad theoretical framework that has been applied in various research areas such as engineering, econometrics and recently in psychology. It quantifies the relations between observed inputs and outputs that are connected through a set of latent state variables. State space models are used to investigate the dynamical properties of these latent quantities. These models are especially of interest in the study of emotion dynamics, with the system representing the evolving emotion components of an individual. However, for simultaneous modeling of individual and population differences, a hierarchical extension of the basic state space model is necessary. Therefore, we introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model with random effects for the system parameters. Further, we apply our model to data that were collected using the Oregon adolescent interaction task: 66 normal and 67 depressed adolescents engaged in a conflict-oriented interaction with their parents and second-to-second physiological and behavioral measures were obtained. System parameters in normal and depressed adolescents were compared, which led to interesting discussions in the light of findings in recent literature on the links between cardiovascular processes, emotion dynamics and depression. We illustrate that our approach is flexible and general: The model can be applied to any time series for multiple systems (where a system can represent any entity) and moreover, one is free to focus on various components of this versatile model.     

Attachment-related affective dynamics: differential reactivity to others' interpersonal behavior

We examined the influences of attachment orientations on within-person changes in affect as a function of perceptions of the interaction partner's agreeable behavior in interactions involving a romantic partner and other kinds of partners. Working adults reported affect, perceptions of the other person's behavior, and the relationship with the other in interpersonal events during 20 days. As expected, the within-person association between perceived partner's agreeable behavior and negative affect was stronger for individuals higher on attachment anxiety and was weaker for individuals higher on attachment avoidance. These effects were more pronounced in interactions with a romantic partner than with other persons. Findings demonstrate that attachment orientations are associated with differing within-person processes and that these processes are sensitive to kind of interaction partner.     

A hierarchical latent response model for inferences about examinee engagement in terms of guessing and item-level non-response

In low-stakes assessments, test performance has few or no consequences for examinees themselves, so that examinees may not be fully engaged when answering the items. Instead of engaging in solution behaviour, disengaged examinees might randomly guess or generate no response at all. When ignored, examinee disengagement poses a severe threat to the validity of results obtained from low-stakes assessments. Statistical modelling approaches in educational measurement have been proposed that account for non-response or for guessing, but do not consider both types of disengaged behaviour simultaneously. We bring together research on modelling examinee engagement and research on missing values and present a hierarchical latent response model for identifying and modelling the processes associated with examinee disengagement jointly with the processes associated with engaged responses. To that end, we employ a mixture model that identifies disengagement at the item-by-examinee level by assuming different data-generating processes underlying item responses and omissions, respectively, as well as response times associated with engaged and disengaged behaviour. By modelling examinee engagement with a latent response framework, the model allows assessing how examinee engagement relates to ability and speed as well as to identify items that are likely to evoke disengaged test-taking behaviour. An illustration of the model by means of an application to real data is presented.     

A vigilance model for latent learning

The author proposes a heuristic model for latent learning. It is concluded that to regard academic learning as qualitatively different from other forms of learning is to deny evolutionary continuity. Academic learning is not a unitary process governed by a single set of parameters. In addition, it is observed that the problem of student motivation may very well turn out to be purely academic. The instructional technique for a captive audience of a class may be so structured as to make the direction of attention irresistible, the performance of a response, when needed, compelling, and the acquisition of knowledge inevitable. Vigilance is an instance of innate foundation. Its most striking characteristics are its universality in the animal world, its ready evocation by a wide range of stimuli, and its apparent behavioral and physiological manifestations. The last two are the natural resources for objective investigation, and the first may well be the basis of broad and valid generalizations.     

A latent class model for rating data

A latent class model for rating data is presented which is the analogue of Andrich's binomial Rasch model for Lazarsfeld's latent class analysis (LCA). The response probabilities for the rating categories follow a binomial distribution and depend on class-specific item parameters. The EM-algorithm for parameter estimation as well as goodness of fit tests for the model are described. An example using questionnaire items on interest in physics illustrates the use of the model as an alternative to the latent trait approach of analyzing test data.I would like to thank Clifford Clogg and the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.     

A hierarchical process-dissociation model

In fitting the process-dissociation model (L. L. Jacoby, 1991) to observed data, researchers aggregate outcomes across participant, items, or both. T. Curran and D. L. Hintzman (1995) demonstrated how biases from aggregation may lead to artifactual support for the model. The authors develop a hierarchical process-dissociation model that does not require aggregation for analysis. Most importantly, the Curran and Hintzman critique does not hold for this model. Model analysis provides for support of process dissociation--selective influence holds, and there is a dissociation in correlation patterns among participants and items. Items that are better recollected also elicit higher automatic activation. There is no correlation, however, across participants; that is, participants with higher recollection have no increased tendency toward automatic activation. The critique of aggregation is not limited to process dissociation. Aggregation distorts analysis in many nonlinear models, including signal detection, multinomial processing tree models, and strength models. Hierarchical modeling serves as a general solution for accurately fitting these psychological-processing models to data.     

A stochastic model for free recall

A statistical model for verbal learning is presented and tested against experimental data. The model describes a Markov process with a realizable absorbing state, allowing complete learning on some finite trial as well as imperfect retention prior to this trial.This work was carried out while the author was at Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Operated with support from the U. S. Army, Navy, and Air Force.     

A stochastic model for test-retest correlations

A simple stochastic model is formulated in order to determine the optimal time between the first test and the second test when the test-retest method of assessing reliability is used. A forgetting process and a change in true score process are postulated. The optimal time between tests is derived by maximizing the probability that the respondent has not remembered the response on the first test and has not had a change in true score. The resulting test-retest correlation is then found to be a linear function of the true reliability of the test, where the slope of this function is the key probability of not remembering and having no change in true score. Some numerical examples and suggestions for using the results in empirical studies are given. Specific recommendations are presented for improved design and analysis of intentions data.This research was made possible by a grant from the Center for Food Policy Research, Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York, 10027.     

A latent trait model for dichotomous choice data

The PARELLA model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. The data analyzed are the dichotomous responses of persons to stimuli, with a one (zero) indicating agreement (disagreement) with the content of the stimulus. The model provides a unidimensional representation of persons and items. The response probabilities are a function of the distance between person and stimulus: the smaller the distance, the larger the probability that a person will agree with the content of the stimulus. An estimation procedure based on expectation maximization and marginal maximum likelihood is developed and the quality of the resulting parameter estimates evaluated.I gratefully acknowledge Ivo Molenaar and Wijbrandt van Schuur for their advice and encouragement during the course of the investigation, Derk-Jan Kiewiet who constructed the program for the ML estimator for the person parameter and Anne Boomsma, Wendy Post, Tom Snijders, and David Thissen for their comments on smaller aspects of the investigation.     

A general latent trait model for response processes

The purpose of the current paper is to propose a general multicomponent latent trait model (GLTM) for response processes. The proposed model combines the linear logistic latent trait (LLTM) with the multicomponent latent trait model (MLTM). As with both LLTM and MLTM, the general multicomponent latent trait model can be used to (1) test hypotheses about the theoretical variables that underlie response difficulty and (2) estimate parameters that describe test items by basic substantive properties. However, GLTM contains both component outcomes and complexity factors in a single model and may be applied to data that neither LLTM nor MLTM can handle. Joint maximum likelihood estimators are presented for the parameters of GLTM and an application to cognitive test items is described.This research was partially supported by the National Institute of Education grant number NIE-6-7-0156 to Susan Embretson (Whitely), principal investigator. However the optinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the National Institute of Education, and no official endorsement by the National Institute of Education should be inferred.     

A hierarchical model for estimating response time distributions

We present a statistical model for inference with response time (RT) distributions. The model has the following features. First, it provides a means of estimating the shape, scale, and location (shift) of RT distributions. Second, it is hierarchical and models between-subjects and within-subjects variability simultaneously. Third, inference with the model is Bayesian and provides a principled and efficient means of pooling information across disparate data from different individuals. Because the model efficiently pools information across individuals, it is particularly well suited for those common cases in which the researcher collects a limited number of observations from several participants. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that the hierarchical Bayesian model provides more accurate estimates than several popular competitors do. We illustrate the model by providing an analysis of the symbolic distance effect in which participants can more quickly ascertain the relationship between nonadjacent digits than that between adjacent digits.     

A stochastic model for rote serial learning

A model for the acquisition of responses in an anticipatory rote serial learning situation is presented. The model is developed in detail for the case of a long intertrial interval and employed to fit data where the list length is varied from 8 to 18 words. Application of the model to the case of a short intertrial interval is considered; some predictions are derived and checked against experimental data.The author wishes to thank Professors C. J. Burke and W. K. Estes for advice and assistance in carrying out this research.     

A latent trait theory via a stochastic learning theory for a knowledge space

To capture the cognitive organization of a set of questions or problems pertaining to a body of information, Doignon and Falmagne have proposed, and analyzed in a number of papers, the concept of aknowledge space, that is, a distinguished collection of subsets of questions, representing the possibleknowledge states. This collection of sets is assumed to satisfy a number of conditions. Since this concept is a deterministic one, the problem of empirical testing arises. A stochastic version of a knowledge space is developed in this paper, in which the knowledge states are considered as possible epochs in a subject's learning history. The knowledge space is decomposed as a union of a number of possible learning paths, calledgradations. The model specifies how a subject is channelled through and progresses along a gradation. A probabilistic axiom of the local indepencence type relates the knowledge states to the observable responses. The predictions of this model are worked out in details in the case of parametric assumptions involving gamma distributions. An application of the model to artificial data is described, based on maximum likelihood methods. The statistical analysis is shown to be capable of revealing the combinatoric core of the model.This work was supported by NSF grant IST-8418860 and ARI grant DAAG29-84-G-0083 to New York University. I am grateful to Jean-Paul Doignon, Mathieu Koppen, Geoff Iverson and Michael Landy for their reactions to previous drafts of this paper, to Michael Villano for carrying out the computer simulation and the analysis of the simulated data, and especially to one referee for his very useful comments.     

A general structural equation model with dichotomous,ordered categorical,and continuous latent variable indicators

A structural equation model is proposed with a generalized measurement part, allowing for dichotomous and ordered categorical variables (indicators) in addition to continuous ones. A computationally feasible three-stage estimator is proposed for any combination of observed variable types. This approach provides large-sample chi-square tests of fit and standard errors of estimates for situations not previously covered. Two multiple-indicator modeling examples are given. One is a simultaneous analysis of two groups with a structural equation model underlying skewed Likert variables. The second is a longitudinal model with a structural model for multivariate probit regressions.This research was supported by Grant No. 81-IJ-CX-0015 from the National Institute of Justice, by Grant No. DA 01070 from the U.S. Public Health Service, and by Grant No. SES-8312583 from the National Science Foundation. I thank Julie Honig for drawing the figures. Requests for reprints should be sent to Bengt Muthén, Graduate School of Education, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90024.     

A general framework for using latent class analysis to test hierarchical and nonhierarchical learning models

Several articles in the past fifteen years have suggested various models for analyzing dichotomous test or questionnaire items which were constructed to reflect an assumed underlying structure. This paper shows that many models are special cases of latent class analysis. A currently available computer program for latent class analysis allows parameter estimates and goodness-of-fit tests not only for the models suggested by previous authors, but also for many models which they could not test with the more specialized computer programs they developed. Several examples are given of the variety of models which may be generated and tested. In addition, a general framework for conceptualizing all such models is given. This framework should be useful for generating models and for comparing various models.     

A hierarchical model for the structure of vocational interests

In this study a hierarchical model for the structure of vocational interests is proposed. Theoretical and methodological considerations, reanalysis of the C. E. Lunneborg and P. E. Lunneborg (Journal of Vocational Behavior, 1975, 7, 313–326) data, and an alternative interpretation of existing findings suggest that this model accounts for the interrelations among the vocational interest fields better than the hexagonal-circular models, or the four-factorial structure proposed by Lunneborg and Lunneborg (1975). The implications of this hierarchical model for vocational theory and some applications in vocational guidance are discussed.     

A hierarchical model of temporal perception

Temporal perception comprises subjective phenomena such as simultaneity, successiveness, temporal order, subjective present, temporal continuity and subjective duration. These elementary temporal experiences are hierarchically related to each other. Functional system states with a duration of 30 ms are implemented by neuronal oscillations and they provide a mechanism to define successiveness. These system states are also responsible for the identification of basic events. For a sequential representation of several events time tags are allocated, resulting in an ordinal representation of such events. A mechanism of temporal integration binds successive events into perceptual units of 3 s duration. Such temporal integration, which is automatic and presemantic, is also operative in movement control and other cognitive activities. Because of the omnipresence of this integration mechanism it is used for a pragmatic definition of the subjective present. Temporal continuity is the result of a semantic connection between successive integration intervals. Subjective duration is known to depend on mental load and attentional demand, high load resulting in long time estimates. In the hierarchical model proposed, system states of 30 ms and integration intervals of 3 s, together with a memory store, provide an explanatory neuro-cognitive machinery for differential subjective duration.     

Evaluating methods for approximating stochastic differential equations

Models of decision making and response time (RT) are often formulated using stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Researchers often investigate these models using a simple Monte Carlo method based on Euler's method for solving ordinary differential equations. The accuracy of Euler's method is investigated and compared to the performance of more complex simulation methods. The more complex methods for solving SDEs yielded no improvement in accuracy over the Euler method. However, the matrix method proposed by Diederich and Busemeyer (2003) yielded significant improvements. The accuracy of all methods depended critically on the size of the approximating time step. The large (∼10 ms) step sizes often used by psychological researchers resulted in large and systematic errors in evaluating RT distributions.