A comparative study of adolescent risk assessment instruments: predictive and incremental validity

Promising new adolescent risk assessment tools are being incorporated into clinical practice but currently possess limited evidence of predictive validity regarding their individual and/or combined use in risk assessments. The current study compares three structured adolescent risk instruments, Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL:YV), for both predictive and incremental validity with respect to general and violent recidivism. Receiver operating characteristic and hierarchical logistic regression analyses revealed that the risk tools predicted general and violent recidivism to varying degrees of accuracy, but the SAVRY offered the most in incremental validity. Clinical implications and future directions for youth risk assessment are discussed.     

Die Vorhersage der Rückfälligkeit entlassener Sexualstraftäter mittels des Sexual Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) und dessen Screening-Version (SORAG-SV): Darstellung der differentiellen und prädiktiven Validität

The Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) is one of the most important actuarial risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders. In the meantime, the application of actuarial instruments in recidivism risk assessment for sexual offenders is regarded as state of the art. In addition to results about interrater reliability and concurrent validity we present results about the differential and predictive validity of the SORAG and a screening version of the SORAG (SORAG-SV), which relies only on file information. In order to examine the predictive validity, we used a representative sample of 519 male sexual offenders released from a prison sentence served in one of Austrian´s prisons with a mean follow-up period of 3½ years. Furthermore, we tested the differential validity by dividing the whole sample in different subsamples regarding age, index offense type, and degree of antisociality. Both SORAG and SORAG-SV showed predominantly good predictive accuracy which, however, varied depending on offender subgroup and recidivism category.     

The validity and reliability of the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version: assessing sex offender risk and evaluating therapeutic change

The Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO) is a rating scale designed to assess risk and predict sexual recidivism, to measure and link treatment changes to sexual recidivism, and to inform the delivery of sexual offender treatment. The VRS-SO comprises 7 static and 17 dynamic items empirically or conceptually linked to sexual recidivism. Dynamic items with higher ratings identify treatment targets linked to sexual offending. A modified stages of change model assesses the offender's treatment readiness and change. File-based VRS-SO ratings were completed on 321 sex offenders followed up an average of 10 years post-release. VRS-SO scores predicted sexual and nonsexual violent recidivism post-release and demonstrated acceptable interrater reliability and concurrent validity. A factor analysis of the dynamic items generated 3 factors labeled Sexual Deviance, Criminality, and Treatment Responsivity, all of which predicted sexual recidivism and were differentially associated with different sex offender types. The dynamic items together made incremental contributions to sexual recidivism prediction after static risk was controlled for. Positive changes in the dynamic items, measured at pre- and posttreatment, were significantly related to reductions in sexual recidivism after risk and follow-up time were controlled for, suggesting that dynamic items are indeed dynamic or changeable in nature.     

Über die Treffsicherheit der standardisierten Risikoeinschätzungsverfahren Static-99 und Stable-2007 bei aus einer Sicherungsmaßnahme entlassenen Sexualstraftätern

The accuracy of the recidivism risk assessment instruments Static-99 and Stable-2007 for sexual offenders was examined in a population of released male forensic sexual offenders hospitalized under mandatory treatment in Austria (N?=?96). The Static-99 with an area under the curve (AUC) ?value of 0.86 and the Stable-2007 (AUC?=?0.71) were significantly related to sexual reoffending after nearly 7 years time at risk, thus revealing a predictive power comparable with offenders released from prison (N?=?274). Also the Stable-2007 incrementally supplemented the predictive accuracy of the Static-99. Static-99/Stable-2007 risk/need categories identified a high risk group with a 50?% chance for sexual reconviction within 5 years after release despite a favorable risk assessment as the precondition for release and post-release risk management. On the other hand, there was virtually no relapse in the three lowest risk categories suggesting a specific effect of the mandatory treatment at least in these offender categories. The data suggest that the instruments are valid not only for offenders released from prison but also for forensic sexual offenders.     

The predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth in secondary educational settings

Current developments in violence risk assessment warrant consideration for use within educational settings. Using a structured professional judgment (SPJ) model, the present study investigated the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence in Youth (SAVRY) within educational settings. The predictive accuracy of the SAVRY scales was assessed using a retrospective file review to gather data on 87 adolescents ranging in age from 12 to 18 years. Receiver-operating characteristic analyses were used to gauge the predictive accuracy. With an area under the curve of .72 (p = .001), the accuracy of the SAVRY total score in correctly identifying violent youth exceeds the accuracy of identifications based on chance predictions in this sample. Logistic regression analyses assessed the relative contribution of the SAVRY subscales, whereas the omnibus equation using all subscale scores correctly classified 82% of those adolescents who were nonviolent and 45% of those adolescents who were violent. These results build on previous research and provide support for the use of the SAVRY in educational settings for identification as well as directing intervention efforts. Practical implications and areas for future research are also discussed.     

Assessment of accused juvenile sex offenders in Germany: a comparison of five different measures

The present study examines the relationship between risk and protective factors among young alleged sexual offenders (N = 66) in pre-trial and pre-treatment settings. For risk assessment purposes, the Screening Tool for the Assessment of Young Sexual Offenders' Risk (STAYSOR), the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), and the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF) were used. Psychopathological indicators measured with the Basis Raads Onderzoek (BARO) and the German adaption of the Reynolds Adolescent Adjustment Screening Inventory (RAASI) were used to examine the relationship between the risk assessment scales and instruments measuring risk-relevant psychopathological constructs. Risk and protective factors were significantly negatively correlated. Psychopathological measures were positively correlated with risk factors and negatively with protective factors. Although further studies on the predictive validity of the instruments are needed, the results of the present explorative pilot study indicate that the use of all five instruments may be clinically meaningful for the assessment of young persons who are at risk of sexual offending.     

Characterization and Prediction of Sexual and Nonsexual Recidivism Among Adjudicated Juvenile Sex Offenders

Estimating the risk of sexual recidivism for a juvenile sex offender is essential in order to protect public safety by identifying and evaluating high risk adolescents and to ensure the rights and welfare of juvenile offenders who will not likely reoffend. Empirically validated risk assessment methods are needed to aid in the classification and treatment of juvenile sex offenders. The present study utilized a dataset collected by Maricopa County, AZ, and aggregated by the National Juvenile Court Data Archive. The purpose of the study was to evaluate and characterize risk factors for juveniles who have been charged with a sexual offense in order to determine the predictive utility of these factors for subsequent offending, as well as offense trajectory, and to evaluate risk factors for nonsexual offenders who have committed crimes of various severities. The results of the present study show the strongest individual predictors of sexual recidivism to be prior nonsexual offending, prior sexual offending, hands‐off offending, offending against a child, younger school grade/age at time of initial offense, Asian or Hispanic ethnicity, and not attending school. A preliminary screening measure was developed from the seven positive risk factors, and ROC analysis produced an AUC indicating moderate predictive utility in discriminating between juvenile sex offenders who would sexually reoffend and those who would not. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth as a predictor of recidivism in a United Kingdom cohort of adolescent offenders with conduct disorder

This prospective study examined the predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and the Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version (PCL: YV) in 99 male adolescents who were assessed in custody and followed up 12 months post release. Outcome data on recidivism were based on official Home Office records. The base rates for violent and general recidivism, respectively, were 38.4% and 70.7%. The predictive validity of the SAVRY Risk Total and the SAVRY Risk Rating was moderate for both violent and general recidivism, but both showed incremental validity in predicting outcomes compared with the PCL: YV. Data are discussed in relation to the limited published international literature.     

Will They Do It Again? Predicting Sex-Offense Recidivism

This article reviews the empirical research on the prediction of reoffending among sexual offenders. The major predictors of sexual-offense recidivism are factors related to sexual deviance (e.g., deviant sexual preferences, previous sex crimes) and, to a lesser extent, criminal lifestyle (e.g., antisocial personality disorder, total number of prior offenses). The factors that predict general recidivism among sex offenders are the same as the factors that predict general recidivism among nonsexual criminals (e.g., juvenile delinquency, prior violent offenses). Given that there are special predictors of sexual recidivism, evaluators should consider separately the risk for sexual and nonsexual recidivism.     

Sex offenders and actuarial risk assessments: ethical considerations

When assessing the recidivism risk of previously convicted sex offenders, the relevant ethical standards and practice guidelines obligate psychologists to acknowledge numerous limits related to their data and conclusions. For the actuarial instruments used in these assessments, the highest rates of classification accuracy are associated with greater specificity compared with sensitivity. Selecting cut-off scores to maximize sensitivity results in an inordinate frequency of false positive classifications. Attempts at maximizing specificity create an undesirable frequency of false negative classifications.Unfortunately, adjusted actuarial assessment cannot remedy these problems created by the sensitivity-specificity tradeoff. As an unstandardized procedure, the accuracy of adjusted actuarial assessment is severely limited. Consequently, civil proceedings for previously convicted sexual offenders rely on assessments of very limited accuracy. Undertaking these assessments, therefore, may be inconsistent with relevant ethical standards and practice guidelines.     

La contribution des arbres de classification et de régression dans la prédiction de la récidive chez les délinquants sexuels adultes

Clinicians have access to several risk assessment instruments to evaluate the risk or recidivism in sexual offenders. Nevertheless, we seem to have attained a ceiling in the predictive validity of these instruments with the traditional techniques of items agglomeration. In this study, we offer a different combination of predictors with the classification and regression trees, and it, by taking into account the type of sexual offenders. The classification trees are constructed from predictors contained in seven actuarial instruments (VRAG, SORAG, RRASOR, STATIC-99, STATIC-2002, RM2000, MnSOST-R). In general, the classification trees have a higher predictive accuracy than the actuarial instruments and point out that it's not the same predictors that should be considered according to the type of offenders and the type of recidivism. Furthermore, classification trees identify correctly more recidivists than the best actuarial tool. In spite of the contribution of this approach, other types of predictors should also be considered to augment predictive accuracy: dynamic predictors, protective predictors as well as measurements based on theories like those on attachment styles (Marshall, D. R., Barbaree, H. E., 1990. An integrated theory of the etiology of sexual offending. In: Marshall, W. L., Laws, D. R. L., Barbaree, H.E. (Eds.), Handbook of sexual assault. New York: Plenum Press, pp. 257-275.) and cognitive distortions (Ward, T., Keenan, T., Hudson, S. M., 2000. Understanding cognitive, affective, and intimacy deficits in sexual offenders: a developmental perspective. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 5, 41–62.).     

Recidivism risk assessment in sex offenders

Violent behaviour risk assessment is one of the most relevant research areas in current Psychology of Crime. Various scales for violence risk assessment have recently been developed from research about crime careers and risk factors. One of these instruments is the Sexual Violence Risk Assessment-20 (SVR-20), translated and adapted to Spanish by the Group of Advanced Studies in Violence of the University of Barcelona. The goal of this study is to verify the predictive capacity of the SVR-20 to predict sexual violence recidivism in a Spanish sample of sexual offender inmates. The method used was a retrospective study based in 163 sexual offender files and a 4-year time lag. The data were analysed with the logistic regression technique. Of the sample, 79.9% non-recidivist individuals were correctly classified, and 70.8% recidivist individuals. The ROC curve obtained for the model shows a very good discriminant capacity for the SVR-20, with a 0.83 AUC value. The main conclusion of this study is that the Spanish adaptation of SVR-20 is a good instrument to predict the risk of sexual violence.     

Zur Validit?t des Prognoseinstruments ?Rückfallrisiko bei Sexualstraft?tern“

The Risk for Recidivism in Sexual Offenders (RRS) procedure is an actuarial risk assessment tool designed to predict recidivism in sexual offenders released from prison. So far it is the only tool developed with a German sample and uses a combination of 11 static and dynamic risk markers. The goal of the current study was to test the predictive validity of the 3 RRS prognostic scores in a sample of 104 sexual offenders whose prison files and recidivism data were analysed after a mean period of 8 years after release from a German prison. The H-score of the RRS developed to assess the probability of reimprisonment showed moderate to good predictive power in relation to any new convictions, new convictions leading to a prison term and new convictions for an aggressive or sexual criminal offence. As expected it was not able to predict sexual recidivism which had a base rate of 8.7% in this sample. The S-score and the K-score of the RRS developed to predict this criterion, performed hardly better in this task. These scores showed moderate to good predictive validity only in the small subsample of extrafamilial sexual offenders.     

Die Validit?t dynamisch-ver?nderbarer Risikofaktoren bei der Vorhersage einschl?giger R��ckf?lle p?dosexueller Straft?ter

The present study examines the predictive validity of dynamic risk factors for the prediction of sexual recidivism in a sample of pedosexual offenders (N?=?135) released from the Austrian prison system between 2002 and 2005. Static-99 was used to rate static risk factors and in order to measure dynamic risk factors Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 were applied. In addition to the demonstration of results about the interrater reliability the results about the predictive and incremental validity of the dynamic risk assessment are presented. After a mean follow-up period of 5½ years Static-99, Stable-2000 and Stable-2007 showed excellent interrater reliability and good predictive validity for the prediction of sexual recidivism. Furthermore, Stable-2007 showed better predictive accuracy than its predecessor and added incremental predictive validity beyond Static-99.     

A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders

Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR] and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.     

Sexual predator evaluations and phrenology: considering issues of evidentiary reliability

This article reviews six assessment procedures used for assessing the recidivism risk of previously convicted sexual offenders. The review of these procedures examines whether they comply with generally accepted ethical and practice standards. With few exceptions, most risk assessment instruments fail to comply with these standards. Currently used instruments for risk assessment continue to rely excessively on clinical judgment; and, as a result, they remain at a preliminary stage of development. Consequently, these instruments amount to experimental procedures; and, therefore, they cannot support expert testimony in a legal proceeding.     

The assessment of incarcerated sexual delinquents’ risk of recidivism

IntroductionThe present study examined the possibility of assessing the risk of sexual recidivism on the basis of static and dynamic factors.ObjectiveA comparison was carried out of detainees on the basis of their scores on a predictive scale of risk of recidivism, on their empathy towards the victim, on their attributive style, and on their self-esteem.MethodThree samples of detainees were compared: two samples of individuals guilty of sexual crime (one sample having committed the aggression towards adults, the second towards children under fifteen years of age) and a control group composed of non-sexual delinquents.ResultsResults showed that sexual offenders targeting children had a lower risk of recidivism than sexual offenders of adults. However, when considering only the recidivists, no difference was found in risk between the two populations.ConclusionIn conclusion, some of the dynamic factors that were analyzed could be retained to complete the static factors in predictive scales of risk of recidivism.     

Zur rückfallprognostischen Bedeutung des Tatverhaltens bei Sexualdelinquenz

The study examined the possibility of predicting sexual recidivism within a period of 5 years in a sample of 612 male sex offenders by means of behavioural crime scene variables. A total of 20 variables were selected based on a significant bivariate correlation with sexual recidivism. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine combined predictive accuracy. Step-wise reverse logistic regression extracted 12 variables explaining 22% of total variance in sexual recidivism. The unweighted sum score of these variables showed considerable predictive power (AUC?=?0.76; r?=?0.34). Findings were robust not only for different subgroups of sexual offenders, but also when cross-validated on an independent sample. In addition, the unweighted sum score showed significant incremental validity above and beyond common risk measures [Static99, Sexual Violence Risk- (SVR-)20], both in the original and the cross-validation sample. Thus, the potential of crime scene analysis in predicting sexual recidivism has been clearly demonstrated. Future research should provide a more accurate access to psychologically meaningful interpretations of the risk immanent in crime scene actions by adapting risk scales to certain subgroups of perpetrators.     

Verläufe bei sexuellen Tötungen

This article summarizes main results of studies on forensic psychiatric court reports on 166 men who had been persecuted between 1963 and 1991 for a sexual offence leading to the death of the victim. Comparing perpetrators with a single victim and those with multiple victims we found similar results as in two previous studies with smaller samples: Multiple sexual homicide perpetrators showed more often sexual sadism and other paraphilias, as well as antisocial, schizoid and sadistic personality disorders. Follow-up data from the federal criminal records could be obtained for 139 offenders. Ninety perpetrators had been released after a mean detention of 12.2 years, whereas the 49 offenders who were still in prison or forensic psychiatric hospitals had been detained for a mean period of 20.6 years. The non-released offenders showed more often paraphilias as well as antisocial and sadistic personality disorders than the released perpetrators. Paraphilias and antisocial personality traits are empirically well proven risk factors for criminal recidivism with sexual reoffences. In addition, the non-released sexual homicide perpetrators had higher scores in all applied risk assessment instruments (PCL-R, HCR-20, SVR-20, Static-99). Among the released offenders only 1.1% (n=1) reoffended with a completed homicide and 2.2% (n=2) with attempted homicide. The recidivism rates with sexual and other violent reoffences in this sample of sexual homicide perpetrators were similar to those in a large meta-analysis on recidivism in sexual offenders by Hanson and Morton-Bourgon (4). Since well established risk factors had apparently been “used-up” for the decisions about release or non-release, in the follow-up data about the released offenders only age at the sexual homicide and age at the time of release were found as risk factors for recidivism with any violent (sexual or non-sexual) reoffence, i.e. the younger the offender at the time of the homicide and the younger at the time of release, the more likely is the risk of violent reoffending.     

Does Risk Assessment Make a Difference? Results of Implementing the SAVRY in Juvenile Probation

An effective approach to reducing recidivism is, first, to identify a youth's risk of reoffending and then to match the intensity of interventions to that risk level. This pre-post quasi-experimental, prospective study compared 247 (pre) with 217 (post) adjudicated youths to examine the implementation of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and its effects on case management practices in Louisiana's Caddo parish probation office. The results indicated that placement rates dropped by 50%, use of maximum levels of supervision dropped by almost 30%, and use of community services decreased except for high-risk youths, but only after the SAVRY was properly implemented. This shift towards more appropriate allocation of resources that are matched to risk level occurred without a significant increase in reoffending. The implications for implementation and for use of risk/needs assessment in juvenile probation are discussed. Copyright ? 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.