Serious Offenders: Using Evidence to Predict and Manage the Risk

In response to the risk of serious further offences, an evidence‐based approach is needed in risk management. A recent joint prison–probation inspection of the management of life sentence prisoners in six U.K. prisons found that the quality of assessment and plans to manage risk of harm to others was insufficient, with too much focus on the offender's verbal account. The present paper discusses observations of regular prisoner behaviour as the basis for predictions, and summarizes results of an evaluation of this methodology based on a sample of high‐risk category prisoners released into the community. Prison behaviour has not traditionally been seen as a valid risk marker for violent recidivism, which may be because typically only conspicuous high‐level behaviours are considered by risk management panels. Our research suggests that we are neglecting a valuable source of information on risk by failing to observe on‐going and consistent pre‐release behaviour. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk Orientation,Risk Exposure,and Policy Opinions: The Case of Free Trade

This research offers a general framework for thinking about how individual disposition towards risk influences public policy opinions. Affinity for or aversion to risk is, in part, a stable personality characteristic that interacts with risk and reward messages in complex policy debates. We examine the implications of this for public opinions about free trade with extensions to immigration policy. We argue and find that opinions about policy depend jointly upon one's exposure to potential gains or losses and one's risk orientation. The findings have implications for crafting and framing public policies because they highlight how individual characteristics are likely to shape the public response to policy proposals. Our findings suggest that there may be limits, in the aggregate, to the degree to which elites can alter the level of support for policies through framing or through offering risk‐mitigating policy provisions.     

Geographical profiling incorporating neighbourhood-level factors using spatial interaction modelling

The aim of this study was to examine the applicability of methods that use spatial interaction modelling to predict the most probable area for an offender's residence. Tokyo, which is the capital of Japan and is divided into 1507 square-kilometre zones, was selected as the study area. We analysed 4316 criminal trips to commit residential burglaries by 1089 offenders who lived in Tokyo. The following neighbourhood-level factors, and a distance-decay effect between zones, were incorporated into the proposed model: the size of the residential population aged 15–59 years in origin zones, the numbers of households living in detached houses, newcomers, the number of police facilities in destination zones, and the spatial structures of the criminal trips. Search areas calculated by the proposed model were smaller than previous models, suggesting that neighbourhood-level factors are important for predicting the location of an offender's residence.     

The Management of Risk and the Design of Good Lives

In this paper, I attempt to integrate the risk-nesd and good lives models of offender rehabilitation. I set out to show how it is possible to capitalise on the strengths of the risk management perspecwve by locating or embedding it within a more constructive, strength based capabilities approach – what I have called the good lives model of offender rehabilitation. In the good lives model risk factors are viewed as obstacles that erode individuals' capacity to live more fulfilling lives. Thus the therapeutic focus is on implementing offender's good lives conceptualisation rather than simply managing risk, although risk is not neglected. First, I briefly outline the risk-need and good lives models and then discuss how they might be integrated. Second, I consider a clinical example, demonstrating in some detail how a good lives perspective impacts on assessment and treatment. Finally, I conclude with a few comments on the clinical and policy implications of this integrated approach.     

Relative versus absolute stimulus control in the temporal bisection task

When subjects learn to associate two sample durations with two comparison keys, do they learn to associate the keys with the short and long samples (relational hypothesis), or with the specific sample durations (absolute hypothesis)? We exposed 16 pigeons to an ABA design in which phases A and B corresponded to tasks using samples of 1 s and 4 s, or 4 s and 16 s. Across phases, we varied the mapping between the samples and the keys. For group Relative, short and long samples were always associated with the same keys (e.g., Phase A: ‘1s→ Left, 4s→ Right''; Phase B: ‘4s→ Left, 16s→ Right''); for group Absolute, the 4-s sample was associated always with the same key (e.g., Phase A: ‘1s→ Left, 4s→ Right''; Phase B: ‘16s→ Left, 4s→ Right’). If temporal control is relational, group Relative should learn the new task faster than group Absolute, but if temporal control is absolute, the opposite should occur. We compared the results with the predictions of the Learning-to-Time (LeT) model, which accounts for temporal discrimination in terms of absolute stimulus control and stimulus generalization. The acquisition curves of the two groups were generally consistent with LeT and therefore more consistent with the absolute than the relative hypothesis.     

A review of the factors that can influence the effectiveness of sexual offender treatment: Risk,need, responsivity,and process issues

The aim of this paper is to review various factors that may affect the effectiveness of sex offender treatment. First, attention to risk level is discussed as an important factor in terms of ensuring that treatment is administered according to the level of an offender's problems and that treatment addresses criminogenic needs. Second, a number of responsivity/intra-individual characteristics (e.g., psychopathy, motivation, and locus of control), which may influence treatment outcome, are examined. Third, the importance of considering process issues, such as the therapeutic climate of the group, the composition of the group, and therapist characteristics is discussed. Finally, suggestions for future research and for optimizing the effectiveness of sex offender treatment are provided.     

The consistency of inconsistency in serial homicide: patterns of behavioural change across series

Linkage analysis is a crucial part of the investigative process when faced with a possible series of related offences. Establishing behavioural consistency (i.e., offender's behaviours consistently present across the series) is at the core of linkage. Recent empirical studies have found little evidence of consistency looking at either individual or groups of behaviours in serial homicide. It is argued that behavioural changes are rooted in the changing cognitive strategies that offenders use to reach their ultimate goal (i.e. the commission of multiple homicides). Factors that could account for these changes include learning, situational factors, loss of control, and changes in the offender's fantasy. Patterns of behavioural change have been identified in serial crimes, such as rape. However, no empirical studies have looked at patterns of behavioural change in serial homicide. The present study examined patterns of consistency and change using a combination of thematic and behavioural subgroup approaches that use Multidimensional Scaling. Thematic differentiation indicative of behavioural manifestations of cognitive strategies was found in all three examined subgroups: planning, wounding, and offender–victim interaction, and patterns of change within these subgroups provided support for the above theories. Looking at behavioural patterns rather than individual behaviours, may be a more fruitful way of examining consistency in serial homicide, and could have significant implications for linkage analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reducing the Risk of Internalizing Symptoms among High‐risk Hispanic Youth through a Family Intervention: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Familias Unidas is an intervention that has been found to be efficacious in preventing and reducing substance use, sexual risk, and problem behaviors among Hispanic youth. While it does not specifically target youth internalizing symptoms, the intervention works to strengthen parenting and family factors associated with reduced risk of internalizing symptoms (i.e., depression, anxiety symptoms). This study examines the effects of Familias Unidas on internalizing symptoms among high‐risk youth, as well as the role of family level factors in the intervention's effects. A total of 242 12–17‐year‐old Hispanic youth with a history of delinquency and their primary caregivers were recruited from the school and juvenile justice systems, and randomly assigned to the Familias Unidas intervention or community practice control. A linear latent growth model was used to examine intervention effects on the trajectory of adolescent internalizing symptoms from baseline to 6 and 12 months post‐baseline. Results show that the Familias Unidas intervention was more efficacious than control in reducing youth internalizing symptoms. Baseline youth externalizing and internalizing symptoms did not moderate the intervention's effects on the trajectory of youth internalizing symptoms. While parent – adolescent communication did not significantly moderate the intervention's effects, changes in parent – adolescent communication mediated the intervention's effects on internalizing symptoms, showing stronger intervention effects for youth starting with poorer communication. Findings indicate that the Familias Unidas intervention can reduce internalizing symptoms among high‐risk Hispanic youth, and that improving parent – youth communication, a protective family factor, may be one of the mechanisms by which the intervention influences youth internalizing symptoms.     

Pathways in the offending process of sex offenders who target marginalised victims

Prior literature shows that although marginalised populations are at a high risk of severe violence and homicide, research has focused on their offenders as if they constituted a homogeneous group. On the basis of a sample of 213 sex offenders who targeted marginalised individuals (i.e., sex trade worker, homeless individual, and severe drug user), we investigate the different pathways that these offenders take both prior to and during the commission of their crimes. Results of 2‐step cluster analysis regarding the offender's development, criminal history, crime context, and modus operandi revealed 3 distinct pathways of the offending process. The coercive pathway was characterised by the amount of violence used against the victim. The explosive pathway was defined by offenders who were in a state of rage at the time of the offence. Finally, offenders in the situational pathway committed their crimes out of opportunity and used very little violence. Differences between pathways were investigated with regard to characteristics of the index offence.     

What stops revenge taking? Effects of observed emotional reactions on revenge seeking

What reaction stops revenge taking? Four experiments (total N = 191) examined this question where the victim of an interpersonal transgression could observe the offender's reaction (anger, sadness, pain, or calm) to a retributive noise punishment. We compared the punishment intensity selected by the participant before and after seeing the offender's reaction. Seeing the opponent in pain reduced subsequent punishment most strongly, while displays of sadness and verbal indications of suffering had no appeasing effect. Expression of anger about a retributive punishment did not increase revenge seeking relative to a calm reaction, even when the anger response was disambiguated as being angry with the punisher. It is concluded that the expression of pain is the most effective emotional display for the reduction of retaliatory aggression. The findings are discussed in light of recent research on reactive aggression and retributive justice.     

A dyadic examination of the role of relationship characteristics and age on relationship satisfaction in a formal mentoring programme

Research was conducted to test ideas derived from Wanberg, Welsh, and Hezlett's (2003) dynamic process model of formal mentoring to examine (1) the role of respect and communication in mentorship relationship satisfaction, and (2) whether the age of the mentor or the protégé would impact those relationship qualities. The sample was comprised of 117 matched mentor–protégé pairs from an organization's formal mentoring programme. We received survey data from both partners and used the Actor–Partner Interdependence Model to examine individual and dyadic effects. Data suggest that protégés' respect for the mentor and communication quality, as perceived by both partners, were independent predictors of mentorship relationship satisfaction. Protégés rated their relationships as more satisfying than did their mentors. Hypotheses regarding age differences in relational qualities were not supported. We suggest that researchers continue to examine formal relationships at the dyadic level, and that practitioners designing formal mentoring programmes consider interventions to enhance communication and respect.     

Compassion-focused reappraisal,benefit-focused reappraisal,and rumination after an interpersonal offense: Emotion-regulation implications for subjective emotion,linguistic responses,and physiology

This repeated measures psychophysiology experiment studied three responses to a past interpersonal offense (38 females and 33 males). We compared rumination with two offense reappraisal strategies. Compassion-focused reappraisal emphasized the offender's humanity, and interpreted the transgression as evidence of the offender's need for positive transformation. Benefit-focused reappraisal emphasized insights gained or strengths shown in facing the offense. Supporting the manipulations, compassion-focused reappraisal stimulated the most empathy and forgiveness, whereas benefit-focused reappraisal prompted the most benefit language and gratitude. Both reappraisals decreased aroused, negative emotion, and related facial muscle tension at the brow (corrugator). Both reappraisals increased happiness and positive emotion in ratings and linguistic analyses. Compassion stimulated the greatest social language, calmed tension under the eye (orbicularis oculi), and slowed heart beats (R–R intervals). A focus on benefits prompted the greatest joy, stimulated smiling (zygomatic) activity, and buffered the parasympathetic nervous system against rumination's adverse effects on heart rate variability (HRV).     

The Influence of Goal Orientation and Risk on Creativity

Employees' creative performance has been found to play a vital role in the continued existence and growth of organizations. Many individual differences (e.g., openness to experience) are significantly related to creative output, but the importance of individuals' goal orientation on creative performance under high or low risk situations has been overlooked. To address this gap in the literature, we studied the relationship between risk and creativity, and investigated whether an individual's goal orientation enhances (i.e., learning orientation) or diminishes (i.e., avoid or prove orientation) the relationship between risk and creative performance. The hypotheses were tested in a laboratory environment using undergraduate subjects. Results showed a positive relationship between risk and creativity. The findings also supported the idea that individuals low in avoid orientation cultivate more creative outputs under high rather than low risk conditions. Limitations, future research, and implications are addressed.     

An exploratory analysis of the contexts and circumstances of filicide‐suicide in Chicago, 1965–1994

Filicide is the killing of a ward by a parent. Relative to many other types of homicide, filicide is an infrequent event. Filicide followed by the offender's suicide is less frequent still. The contexts and circumstances surrounding filicide‐suicide may nevertheless provide insight into parental psychology. Some research suggests, for example, that filicidal genetic parents are more likely to commit suicide than are filicidal stepparents. Five hypotheses are tested for this study, using a database that includes incident‐level information on over 22,000 homicides committed in Chicago during the years 1965–1994. Findings do not support the hypothesis of differential risk of suicide following filicide by genetic parents and stepparents. Previous work is replicated, indicating that: (1) filicides that include multiple victims are more likely to end in the offender's suicide than are filicides that include a single victim, (2) parents are more likely to commit suicide following a filicide of an older child than a filicide of a younger child, (3) older parents, relative to younger parents, are more likely to commit suicide following filicide, and that (4) fathers, relative to mothers, are more likely to commit suicide following filicide. Discussion suggests future directions for research that can inform our understanding of filicide and of filicide‐suicide. Aggr. Behav. 00:000–000, 2005. © 2005 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Risk factors for child physical abuse

We review the risk and protective factors for child physical abuse (CPA). An etiological model based on moderate to strongly supported risk factors would begin with distal perpetrator variables of being abused as a child/teen and receiving less family social support as a child. Next might come current family variables such as parents' youth, father's drinking, and family's living in a community that is impoverished and/or has a lower percentage of two parent families. More proximal variables that increase the probability of parents, especially mothers, employing severe or abusive physical tactics could include mothers' dysphoria (e.g., unhappiness, emotional distress, anxiety, loneliness and isolation, depression, somatic complaints, interpersonal problems, feelings of incompetence as a parent, a tendency toward becoming upset and angry), and stress (more stressful life events, including parenting and other family stresses) and coping (most likely a protective factor, including problem solving and social support). Finally, risk factors that are proximal to abuse could include mothers' high reactivity (impulsivity, high negative affect and autonomic nervous system arousal), high-risk parenting (harsh discipline strategies, verbal aggression, yelling), and negative attributions, and children's behavior problems (e.g., socialized aggression, attention deficits, and internalizing and externalizing problems).     

Impulsivity,communication, and marital satisfaction in newlywed couples

The authors used a vulnerability–stress–adaptation framework to examine how and why impulsivity affects communication and marital satisfaction in a sample of 100 newlywed couples. We specifically examined the links between impulsivity and perceptions of conflict communication patterns and their associations with marital satisfaction. Using an actor–partner interdependence framework, the results demonstrated that impulsivity was negatively associated with one's own and partner's marital satisfaction. Impulsivity was also negatively associated with constructive communication and positively associated with destructive communication. Furthermore, mediation analyses showed that communication patterns mediated the impulsivity–satisfaction link. Taken together, these findings suggest that impulsivity is likely to lead to lower marital satisfaction, partly through its effect on communication between partners.     

Patterns of force in robbery

This study uses offender interviews and the comparative analysis of cases to examine the conditions under which different modes of force are used by an offender to exact compliance from a target in robbery. The mode of force employed is constrained by two contingencies: the strength of the offender's coercive resources and the meaning of the target to the robbery. The greater the punitive strength of the offender's coercive resources, the more likely the offender will use limited force to exact compliance. The lesser the punitive strength of the offender's resources, the more likely the offender will use massive force to generate compliance. When the target is deemed pivotal to the offender's goal achievement, the offender is confined to the use of limited force, regardless of the punitive strength of his or her resources. When the target is not considered necessary, the offender will use either limited or massive force, depending on the strength of his or her resources.     

Violence risk: Re-defining variables from the first-person perspective

Over the past 25 years, there have been notable advances in violence risk assessment of mentally ill individuals using actuarial methods to define high versus low risk groups. A focus on readily observable risk factors, however, has led to a relative neglect of how the offender's subjective states may be valuable to consider in research on the ongoing assessment and prevention of violence. We argue for the relevance of considering idiographic features of subjective experience in the development of structured assessment methods. We then identify three heuristic groups of existing constructs related to aggressive and illegal behavior that may capture modifiable, time-varying aspects of mental functioning leading up to involvement in an act of violence. These hypothesized domains are: (i) construal of intent and cause; (ii) normative reference points; and (iii) emotion recognition and regulation. We suggest that risk state for violence can be studied in a parsimonious and direct manner through systematic research on coded speech samples. The coding method for such an assessment procedure would be almost identical to existing structured clinical judgment instruments with the difference that variables be defined from a first-person point of view. Some implications of this approach for the tertiary prevention of violence in high-risk individuals are described.     

Self-report measure of parental reflective functioning: A study of reliability and validity across three samples of varying clinical risk

The Parental Reflective Functioning Questionnaire (PRFQ) provides an efficient way to measure a parent's capacity to recognize their child's mental states and to understand the relationship between underlying mental states and behavior. To date, limited work evaluates its psychometric properties beyond initial validation studies. Here we examined the reliability and validity of the PRFQ in three samples of varying clinical risk (e.g., community sample, previous mental health diagnosis, substance use disorder diagnosis). Across samples, the majority (e.g., 75%–78%) of mothers identified as White; all mothers were from the USA. We compared the PRFQ to task-based measures of mentalization, the Parent Development Interview (PDI), and measures of the parent-child relationship. The PRFQ was a reliable measure across samples, and it was associated in theoretically consistent ways with task-based measures of mentalization. Parental RF across the PDI and PRFQ were not highly correlated in a sample of mothers with substance use disorders. Existing RF measures may be tapping into a different component of the broader construct of parental reflective functioning (PRF). The PRFQ was further validated by demonstrating relationships with parent-report measures of the parent-child relationship. Taken together, these findings provide additional support for the reliability and validity of the PRFQ.