The tale of uncertain choices: inclusion versus exclusion

Abstract

This article investigates the effect of perceived uncertainty on two types of screening strategies – exclusion and inclusion. Results from five studies showed that perceived uncertainty increases the preference for exclusion strategy. Using both mediation and moderation methods, we find support for accuracy consideration as the driver underlying the effect of perceived uncertainty on screening strategy. Furthermore, we demonstrated a reversal of the relationship between perceived uncertainty and screening strategy by manipulating the consideration set size. While perceived uncertainty strengthened the preference for the exclusion strategy when forming smaller consideration sets, this relationship flipped when forming larger consideration sets. We also demonstrated the effects of perceived preference uncertainty on screening strategy over and above knowledge uncertainty, choice uncertainty, as well as dispositional attitude toward uncertainty. Finally, we demonstrated the generalisability of our results by analysing verbal protocol data from the TV game show Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?     

An information search model of evaluative concerns in intergroup interaction

In an information search model, evaluative concerns during intergroup interaction are conceptualized as a joint function of uncertainty regarding and importance attached to out-group members' views of oneself. High uncertainty generally fosters evaluative concerns during intergroup exchanges. Importance depends on whether out-group members' evaluations are perceived as diagnostic of one's social standing and outcomes. Perceived diagnosticity can arise from the out-group's control over resources (contingency) and/or ability to provide accurate assessments (expertise) and is a function of the relative status of one's group and the perceived legitimacy of the group status difference. Evaluative concerns trigger information search efforts and forms of uncertainty reduction that have a variety of negative downstream effects. Implications for efforts to improve intergroup relations are discussed.     

Black-Hat/White-Hat Strategy in Bilateral Negotiation

The black-hat/white-hat strategy is a sequential process involving two people who work as a team in a negotiation against an adversary. The first person in the sequence, the black hat, takes a competitive stance toward the adversary; the second in the sequence, the white hat, takes a more cooperative stance. The presumed effect is success in eliciting concessions from the adversary and reaching agreement. The experiment reported here simulated a buyer–seller negotiation to assess the effects of the temporal ordering of the black-hat and white-hat strategies. Subjects, as buyers, negotiated twice with computer-simulated sellers who were either cooperative or competitive in the first negotiation and cooperative or competitive in the second. The results suggested that strategy shifts can play an important role in negotiation: when a new strategy was presented (either more cooperative or more competitive), there was increased concession-making by subjects and reduction of distance between offers. The black-hat/white-hat strategy was most likely to reduce distance and reach agreements. The black-hat/black-hat strategy was least successful by these measures. Evidence of contrast effects was obtained in perceptions of opponent cooperativeness: the black-hat/white-hat strategy produced the greatest perceived cooperativeness. The black-hat/white-hat strategy benefited from two processes: 1. concessions of the white-hat in the second negotiation in reducing distance from agreement, and 2. greater perceived cooperativeness due to the contrast effect. Several indexes of collective efficiency indicated that a black-hat/white-hat aggregate of strategies was more efficient than any other combination of strategies.     

Perceived control over the medical procedure and its association with adjustment to a low-control situation: the case of infertility

Illness perceptions were shown to be related to emotional and physical outcomes, as proposed by Leventhal’s self-regulation model. These perceptions include the illness identity, its timeline, consequences, causes, and controllability, which later research found to include self-control and treatment control. The current study aimed to examine the role of a third type of perceived control: Control over the treatment procedures. We hypothesized that this type of control would be important for women undergoing infertility treatments, which are characterized by high uncertainty and low personal control. The sample included 194 Israeli women who were undergoing infertility treatments, 70% recruited in hospitals and the remainder in a fertility counseling center and website. All participants were married religious Jewish women, which added to the stress inherent in infertility. Study measures included the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised (IPQ-R), adapted to infertility, with an additional subscale assessing control over the procedure, and infertility-specific distress and well-being scales. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses supported the factor structure, including the distinct new subscale. A structural equations model showed that perceived consequences were most strongly related to distress and well-being. The three types of control were positively intercorrelated but differed in their associations with distress and well-being: Self-control over the problem and treatment control were unrelated to either measure while self-control over the procedure was related to greater well-being. These findings suggest that when control over the condition or the treatment outcomes is impossible, individuals may still benefit from control over external factors such as their health care. Healthcare providers can support them by seeking ways to increase their control over their treatment procedures, which may contribute to better psychological adjustment. Future studies should examine the role of perceived control over the procedures in other low-control situations (e.g., newly diagnosed cancer; aging-related declines).     

When here becomes there: attentional distribution modulates foveal bias in peripheral localization

Much research concerning attention has focused on changes in the perceptual qualities of objects while attentional states were varied. Here, we address a complementary question--namely, how perceived location can be altered by the distribution of sustained attention over the visual field. We also present a new way to assess the effects of distributing spatial attention across the visual field. We measured magnitude judgments relative to an aperture edge to test perceived location across a large range of eccentricities (30°), and manipulated spatial uncertainty in target locations to examine perceived location under three different distributions of spatial attention. Across three experiments, the results showed that changing the distribution of sustained attention significantly alters known foveal biases in peripheral localization.     

Cardiovascular changes during social competition in a mixed-motive game.

Male and female subjects played a mixed-motive game against a male confederate under either a 20% cooperative or an 80% cooperative strategy while cardiovascular responses were computer monitored. Females had larger heart rate responses than males during play against the competitive strategy, and the opposite was true during play against the cooperative strategy. Subjects who were more competitive during the game or who scored higher on a coronary-prone (Type A) behavior scale or who reported having an action orientation toward life stress tended to have larger heart rate responses during the game than the remaining subjects. The results draw attention to the importance of covert autonomic responses for understanding overt behavioral choices in mixed-motive games and to the potential utility of this behavioral model for studying the role of psychosocial factors in psychosomatic illnesses.     

Uncertainty and religious reactivity: Uncertainty compensation,repair, and inoculation

Recent research conducted in Western, democratic societies indicates that temporary uncertainty inductions lead to intolerance of religious dissent, increased conviction in religious attitudes, and even increased support for holy war. Past and current conflicts based on religious ideology underscore the danger such responses to uncertainty can pose. This paper responds to the need to learn how to control responses to uncertainty. After having confirmed through pilot testing that uncertainty increases self‐report religious faith, two subsequent studies investigate different techniques to control compensatory responses to uncertainty. Study 1 demonstrates that uncertainty‐induced increases in religiosity can be eliminated by a post‐uncertainty directed positive recall writing task. Study 2 presents evidence for an uncertainty “inoculation,” whereby a pre‐uncertainty self‐affirmation exercise can protect against uncertainty compensation effects. These findings, in combination with a consideration of previous research, offer insight into how undesirable uncertainty compensation effects might be reduced and even prevented. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of top-down knowledge about environmental context in egocentric distance judgments

Judgments of egocentric distances in well-lit natural environments can differ substantially in indoor versus outdoor contexts. Visual cues (e.g., linear perspective, texture gradients) no doubt play a strong role in context-dependent judgments when cues are abundant. Here we investigated a possible top-down influence on distance judgments that might play a unique role under conditions of perceptual uncertainty: assumptions or knowledge that one is indoors or outdoors. We presented targets in a large outdoor field and in an indoor classroom. To control visual distance and depth cues between the environments, we restricted the field of view by using a 14-deg aperture. Evidence of context effects depended on the response mode: Blindfolded-walking responses were systematically shorter indoors than outdoors, whereas verbal and size gesture judgments showed no context effects. These results suggest that top-down knowledge about the environmental context does not strongly influence visually perceived egocentric distance. However, this knowledge can operate as an output-level bias, such that blindfolded-walking responses are shorter when observers’ top-down knowledge indicates that they are indoors and when the size of the room is uncertain.

     

Conciliatory strategies and relative power

In an investigation of variations of a conciliatory strategy, 96 subjects, half female and half male, played a modified Prisoner's Dilemma in which their relative power, in terms of control over the other's outcomes, was less than, equal to, or greater than that of a simulated other. After 10 trials on which (s)he was 50% competitive, the other either did or did not send a handwritten note of general intent to be cooperative. In the second block of 10 trials, the other either was 100% cooperative or began with cooperation and stayed with it as long as the subject did not exploit. When the subject did exploit, the other made the competitive choice on the following trial as a form of retaliation, but followed this retaliation by a return to cooperation on the next trial so that there were never two consecutive competitive choices. During this second block, the simulated other always signaled in advance, with an explicit message, which choice (s)he was about to make. In a third block, the other was 100% cooperative in all conditions and sent no messages. As hypothesized, subjects whose power was equal to or less than that of the other were more cooperative in response to conciliation than were subjects whose power was greater than that of the other. Subjects who received the general note of intent were more cooperative than those who did not, but only in the equal and low power conditions. The subjects in the equal power condition who experienced retaliation were more cooperative than those who did not, but those in the unequal conditions tended to react negatively to retaliation. The results were discussed in terms of Osgood's (Peace Research Reviews, 1979, 8(2), 77–92) GRIT strategy and outcome control in interaction.     

老年人乐观、领悟社会支持与主观幸福感的关系—控制策略的中介作用

基于毕生控制理论，方便选取杭州市60~95岁的老年人320名，采用问卷法考察了老年人控制策略使用的现状和特点，并在控制了年龄、健康状况、日常活动数量后，探讨了老年人的乐观、领悟社会支持与主观幸福感的关系，以及控制策略的中介作用。结果发现：低龄的老年男性和女性更偏好选择初级和补偿初级策略，而高龄老年女性更偏好补偿初级策略；乐观和领悟社会支持不仅可以直接影响老年人的主观幸福感，还可以通过选择初级策略间接影响主观幸福感。初级控制在老年人中依然具有首要性地位，老年人的资源越丰富，越有可能采用积极的控制策略（选择初级），进而提高主观幸福感，实现成功老龄化。     

Effects of Environmental Uncertainty and Social Value Orientation in Resource Dilemmas

This study investigated the relationship between environmental uncertainty and social value orientation in a replenishable resource dilemma paradigm. One hundred seventy-two undergraduates harvested units from a common resource pool over 20 trials. Two levels of social value orientation (cooperative, noncooperative) were crossed with two levels of replenishment rate uncertainty (low, high). As predicted, noncooperators harvested significantly more resources than cooperators and high uncertainty subjects harvested more resources than low uncertainty subjects. The primary finding was the hypothesized three-way interaction among social value orientation, environmental uncertainty, and trials: Social value orientation moderated harvest decisionsonlyunder conditions of high uncertainty during the middle series of harvest trials. Noncooperators increased their harvests during this period, while cooperators harvested less and held their harvests constant across these trials. These results demonstrate that systematic individual differences exist in decision makers' responses to high environmental uncertainty. We suggest that social value orientation may exert its effect by influencing the scanning and processing of goal-relevant cues in this decision environment.     

Challenge and threat states: Cardiovascular,affective, and cognitive responses to a sports-related speech task

This study examined the relationship among cardiovascular responses indicative of challenge and threat states, self-efficacy, perceived control, and emotions before an upcoming competition. Using a repeated-measures design, 48 collegiate athletes talked about an upcoming competition (sport-specific speech task) and the topic of friendship (control speech task), whilst cardiovascular responses (heart rate, preejection period, cardiac output, and total peripheral resistance) were collected and self-report measures of self-efficacy, perceived control, and emotions completed. Findings showed that participants with a physiological threat response reported higher levels of self-efficacy and excitement. Further, none of the other emotions or the cognitive appraisals of challenge and threat predicted cardiovascular patterns indicative of either a challenge or threat state. Thus, cardiovascular responses and self-report measures of self-efficacy, perceived control, and emotions did not correlate in the manner predicted by the theory of challenge and threat states in athletes. This finding may reflect methodological aspects, or that perhaps highly efficacious individuals believe they can perform well and so the task itself is more threatening because failure would indicate under-performance.     

Psychophysiological responses to cooperation: The role of outcome and gender

Instances of sustained cooperative behaviour in humans can be considered as an adaptive strategy that enhances the probability of reaching a goal. This study investigates psychophysiological responses to cooperation in healthy subjects, while considering outcome and gender as potential moderators of these responses. Salivary cortisol levels (Csal), heart rate (HR), skin conductance level (SCL), nonspecific skin conductance responses (NSRs), and mood states were measured at different points before, during and after a Lego house‐building task in undergraduate men (n = 22) and women (n = 20). Once the task was finished, the experimenter informed the participants about the outcome obtained (positive or negative). Cooperation produces an increase in HR, SCL, and NSR responses. When the outcome is positive it produces a gradual diminution in Csal levels, but when the outcome is negative there is a significant increase in Csal levels after the task followed by a progressive decrease. Men with positive outcomes showed a lower area under curve (AUC) in Csal than women with a negative outcome. Men had more NSR responses in all periods other than the rest period. Several mood states are differently affected by the combined effect of outcome and gender. Our laboratory results can be generalized to other situations in which negotiation, mediation, and cooperative strategies are relevant for taking decisions and/or solving problems.     

Effects of cooperative learning strategy on undergraduate kinesiology students' learning styles

A growing body of research supports cooperative learning as an effective teaching strategy. A specific cooperative learning strategy, Team-based Learning, was applied to a convenience sample of four undergraduate sophomore-level motor behavior courses over four semesters from Fall 2002 to Spring 2004 to examine whether this strategy would affect students' learning styles. The data from the Grasha-Reichmann Student Learning Style Scales indicated that this teaching strategy was associated with a significant decrease in the negative Avoidant and Dependent learning styles and an improvement in the positive Participant learning style.     

Elementary school teachers' strategies to handle externalizing classroom behavior: a study of relations between perceived control, teacher orientation and strategy preferences

Rydell, A.-M. & Henricsson, L. (2004). Elementary school teachers' strategies to handle externalizing classroom behavior: A study of relations between perceived control, teacher orientation and strategy preferences. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 45 , 93–102.
Strategies for dealing with problematic student behavior are an important part of the teacher role. Relations between teachers' perceptions of control over children's classroom behavior, teacher orientation and teachers' strategy preferences when confronted with externalizing child behaviors were investigated. Eighty-six primary school teachers, 91% of all first grade teachers in one municipality in Sweden, completed a questionnaire. Disciplinary strategy preferences were measured through vignettes describing externalizing child behaviors, with response alternatives modeled after the Parental Discipline Interview ( Scarr, Pinkerton & Eisenberg, 1991 ). Perceived control was measured with a subscale applied to teachers from the Parental Locus of Control Scale ( Campis, Lyman & Prentice-Dunn, 1986 ). Newly constructed measures of teacher orientation were used. The results indicated that perceived low control over one's classroom situation and a custodial teacher orientation were associated with preferences for authoritarian strategies (firm verbal reprimands, physical restraint) and perceived high control and a humanistic teacher orientation were associated with non-authoritarian strategies (e.g. reasoning with students). Teachers' strategy preferences and associations between perceived control, teacher orientation and strategy preferences were to some extent validated in relations to observed teacher behavior in a subsample of the classrooms.     

Examining the specific dimensions of distress tolerance that prospectively predict perceived stress

We examined five dimensions of distress tolerance (i.e. uncertainty, ambiguity, frustration, negative emotion, physical discomfort) as prospective predictors of perceived stress. Undergraduate students (N = 135) completed self-report questionnaires over the course of two assessment sessions (T1 and T2). Results of a linear regression in which the five dimensions of distress tolerance and covariates (i.e. T1 perceived stress, duration between T1 and T2) served as predictor variables and T2 perceived stress served as the outcome variable showed that intolerance of uncertainty was the only dimension of distress tolerance to predict T2 perceived stress. To better understand this prospective association, we conducted a post hoc analysis simultaneously regressing two subdimensions of intolerance of uncertainty on T2 perceived stress. The subdimension representing beliefs that “uncertainty has negative behavioral and self-referent implications” significantly predicted T2 perceived stress, while the subdimension indicating that “uncertainty is unfair and spoils everything” did not. Results support a growing body of research suggesting intolerance of uncertainty as a risk factor for a wide variety of maladaptive psychological outcomes. Clinical implications will be discussed.     

When does procedural justice influence perceived legitimacy? The role of standing uncertainty and group identification

Many empirical studies have shown that procedural justice is the key determinant of whether an individual perceives an authority figure as legitimate. However, based on relational models of procedural justice and the uncertainty management model, there is reason to believe that the association between procedural justice and perceived legitimacy may be stronger for individuals who are uncertain about their standing as group members (moderation); this interaction might predict group identification and, in turn, perceived legitimacy (mediation). We tested this mediated moderation model in two experiments (Studies 1a and 1b) and a field study (Study 2) using different operationalizations of standing uncertainty across studies. The results of Studies 1a and 1b demonstrated that the association between procedural justice and perceived legitimacy was stronger for participants with high (vs. low) standing uncertainty. Study 2 showed that group identification mediated the association between this interaction effect and perceived legitimacy. Together, the results of the mediated moderation analysis showed that procedural justice was positively associated with perceived legitimacy through high group identification when standing uncertainty was high. The theoretical contributions and practical implications of our findings are discussed.     

The role of problem solving in complex intraverbal repertoires

We examined whether typically developing preschoolers could learn to use a problem-solving strategy that involved self-prompting with intraverbal chains to provide multiple responses to intraverbal categorization questions. Teaching the children to use the problem-solving strategy did not produce significant increases in target responses until problem solving was modeled and prompted. Following the model and prompts, all participants showed immediate significant increases in intraverbal categorization, and all prompts were quickly eliminated. Use of audible self-prompts was evident initially for all participants, but declined over time for 3 of the 4 children. Within-session response patterns remained consistent with use of the problem-solving strategy even when self-prompts were not audible. These findings suggest that teaching and prompting a problem-solving strategy can be an effective way to produce intraverbal categorization responses.     

Uncertainty-dependent activity within the ventral striatum predicts task-related changes in response strategy

Recent neuroimaging work has demonstrated that the ventral striatum (VS) encodes confidence in perceptual decisions. However, it remains unclear whether perceptual uncertainty can signal the need to adapt behavior (such as by responding more cautiously) and whether such behavioral changes are related to uncertainty-dependent activity within the VS. Changes in response strategy have previously been observed following errors and are associated with both medial frontal cortex (MFC) and VS, two components of the performance-monitoring network. If uncertainty can elicit changes in response strategy (slowing), then one might hypothesize that these changes rely on the performance-monitoring network. In the present study, we investigated the link between perceptual uncertainty and task-related behavioral adaptations (response slowing and accuracy increases), as well as how such behavioral changes relate to uncertainty-dependent activity within MFC and VS. Our participants performed a two-choice perceptual decision-making task in which perceptual uncertainty was reported on each trial while behavioral and event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging data were collected. Analysis of the behavioral data revealed that uncertain (but correct) responses led to slowing on subsequent trials, a phenomenon that was positively correlated with increased accuracy. Critically, post-uncertainty slowing was negatively correlated with the VS activity elicited by uncertain responses. In agreement with previous reports, increases in MFC activation were observed for uncertain responses, although MFC activity was not correlated with post-uncertainty slowing. These results suggest that perceptual uncertainty can serve as a signal to adapt one’s response strategy and that such behavioral changes are closely tied to the VS, a key node in the performance-monitoring network.     

Allocation of attention: Uncertainty effects when monitoring one or two visual gratings of noncontiguous spatial frequencies

When an observer is visually presented with a sinusoidal grating, he will often do worse in detecting a given grating when he is uncertain about its spatial frequency than when he is certain. Theoretical explanations of such uncertainty effects assume that the observer has attentional control over multiple spatial-frequency channels. This attentional control can be selectively allocated. If one grating is presented on most of the trials, randomly intermixed with trials of gratings of other spatial frequencies, an experienced observer will use a stationary single-band attention strategy. If two gratings, separated in spatial frequency by four octaves, are randomly presented on most of the intermixed trials, an experienced observer will use a more complex attention strategy; he can monitor the spatial frequencies of the two extreme stimuli with little or no monitoring of intermediate spatial frequencies.