Applications of Prospect Theory to Political Science

Prospect theory is an alternative theory of choice under conditions of risk, and deviates from expected utility theory by positing that people evaluate choices with respect to gains and losses from a reference point. They tend to overweight losses with respect to comparable gains and engage in risk-averse behavior with respect to gains and risk-acceptant behavior with respect to losses. They also respond to probabilities in a non-linear manner. I begin with an overview of prospect theory and some of the evidence upon which it is based, and then consider some of the implications of the theory for American politics, international relations, and the law. I end with a brief discussion of some of the conceptual and methodological problems confronting the application of prospect theory to the study of politics.     

A theory of behavior in a two-valenced psychoecological space

A theory of behavior in a two-valenced psychoecological space is presented. It is an extension of Miller's theory of approach-avoidance mechanisms into a two-dimensional space. It incorporates a learning theory, which describes how the approach and avoidance gradients are built up following experiences over time. It also includes a choice model for an individual's action within the space. The theory describes an organism as active in its psychoecological space, interacting with the environment. The theory is explicated mathematically with a combination of algebraic and stochastic functions and simulated on a computer parallel to an illustratory experimental example with the behavior of rats in an open-field situation with positive reinforcement and punishment at different spatial positions. Examples from simulations with different learning and choice parameters are given together with examples of the changing approach and avoidance surfaces. The predicted behavior patterns are compared with empirical findings in the open-field observations, and the results are used to determine plausible sets of parameter values for the different experimental conditions.     

聚焦思维结构的智力理论--林崇德的智力理论述评

林崇德的思维结构模型,是其智力理论的核心。因此,林崇德的智力理论,是一种聚焦思维结构的智力理论。不过,林崇德的智力理论,远不止其思维结构模型。他所提出的“智力结构是一个多元结构”的观点、“思维核心说”、“概括基础说”和“思维发展的模式”,也同样是其智力理论的重要内容。通观林崇德的智力理论,不难看出其四大特点:第一,理论性与实践性的有机统一;第二,两点论与重点论的有机统一;第三,智力培养与智力评价的有机统一;第四,不变性与可变性的有机统一。     

Classes of models for selected axiomatic theories of choice

Adding a reversibility axiom to the other axioms of Luce's (1959) probabilistic ranking theory results in an impossibility theorem—that all alternatives in an alternative set are equally likely to be chosen (i.e., that preferences are random). This impossibility theorem is generally avoided by removing the reversibility axiom. Using simple algebraic methods such a modified theory is shown to contain a theorem similiar to the impossibility result. These results are discussed within the framework of mathematical model theory (model theory deals with the relations between sets of sentences (theories) and the structures which satisfy these sentences (models)) to illustrate the applicability of model theory as an analytic tool in theory development.     

Ultimate Questions of Science and the Theory of System Relations

Summary  Whenever an adequate theory is found in science, we will still be left with two questions: why this theory rather than some other theory, and how should this theory be interpreted? I argue that these questions can be answered by a theory of system relations. The basic idea is that fundamental characteristics of systems, viz. those arising from the general systemic nature of those systems, cannot be comprehended with the aid of discipline-specific methods. The systems theory required should commence with an analysis of the qualitatively different relations possible between systems, because it is precisely the nature of those relations that determines the basic structures of systems. That the theory of the fundamental system relations and their ontological and epistemological implications is indeed able to provide the answers sought is demonstrated in theoretical physics and Plessner’s analysis of the basic structures of plant, animal and human being.     

情境学习理论研究综述

本论文从三方面展开分析,首先阐述了情境学习理论的基本观点。再从教学设计与教学实践两方面分析了情境学习理论在教学中的应用,最后讨论了情境学习理论面临的一些问题。     

Unification of models for choice between delayed reinforcers.

Two models for choice between delayed reinforcers, Fantino's delay-reduction theory and Killeen's incentive theory, are reviewed. Incentive theory is amended to incorporate the effects of arousal on alternate types of behavior that might block the reinforcement of the target behavior. This amended version is shown to differ from the delay-reduction theory in a term that is an exponential in incentive theory and a difference in delay-reduction theory. A power series approximation to the exponential generates a model that is formally identical with delay-reduction theory. Correlations between delay-reduction theory and the amended incentive theory show excellent congruence over a range of experimental conditions. Although the assumptions that gave rise to delay-reduction theory and incentive theory remain different and testable, the models deriving from the theories are unlikely to be discriminable by parametric experimental tests. This congruence of the models is recognized by naming the common model the delayed reinforcement model, which is then compared with other models of choice such as Killeen and Fetterman's (1988) behavioral theory of timing, Mazur's (1984) equivalence rule, and Vaughan's (1985) melioration theory.     

Subjectivism,instrumentalism, and prudentialism about reasons: On the normativity of instrumental transmission

According to a subjectivist theory, normative reasons are grounded in facts about our desires. According to an instrumentalist theory, reasons are grounded also in facts about the relevant means to desired objects. These are distinct theories. The widespread tendency to conflate the normativity of subjective and instrumentalist precepts obscures two facts. First, instrumentalist precepts incorporate a subjective element with an objective one. Second, combining these elements into a single theory of normative reasons requires explaining how and why they are to be combined. I argue that the most plausible justification for combining the two elements—which appeals to a theory of well‐being—exposes the inadequacy of the instrumentalist theory: The grounds required to justify the instrumentalist combination are also grounds for the normativity of prudential precepts and with them practical reasons that may have no internal connection to an agent's conative, motivational states.     

English teaching and the weight of theory

The division between theory and pedagogy is an example of the more traditional division between theory and practice. The paper deals with the artificiality inherent in the institutional separation of those scholars who study within a subject area and those who study the pedagogy of the subject. The paper discusses various theoretical accounts of the nature of English to make the case that theory is imbued with pedagogy. That is, theory is not neutral about teaching. How we teach is driven by our theoretical commitments to our subject.     

客体连续性的加工机制

把先前和现在遇到的客体视为同一个体的现象就可以称为客体连续性。目前对客体连续性的形成主要存在四种解释机制：相似理论、时空理论、种类理论和因果理论。研究者对时空理论中时空信息和客体表面特征信息, 种类理论和因果理论在此过程中所起的作用存在争论。今后应构建相似、种类、因果理论的实验范式, 改进时空、种类和因果理论实验设计的不足并把客体连续性的研究从视觉领域拓展到到嗅觉、听觉等领域。     

Social influence: A discussion and integration of recent models into a general group situation theory

Three models of social influence are presented and their principles discussed in depth: social impact theory, the social influence model and group situation theory. A detailed model of social impact is developed and combined with the group situation theory. The integration of these concepts is utilized to reanalyse several classical studies in social facilitation, social inhibition, crowding, social loafing, and helping in an emergency. Finally, in order to emphasize their differences, the three models are used to explain the Asch studies. The combination of a detailed version of social impact theory with group situation theory results in a middle range theory of group behaviour.     

A Two-Dimensional Theory of Health

The starting point for the contemporary debate about theories of health should be the holistic theory of Lennart Nordenfelt, claims George Khushf, not the refuted theory of Christopher Boorse. The present paper is an attempt to challenge Nordenfelt and to present an alternative theory to his and other theories, including Boorse’s. The main problems with Nordenfelt’s theory are that it is relativistic, that it leads to counter-intuitive results as to what goals can count as healthy, that it focuses on the wrong kind of abilities, that it makes measuring health extra difficult, and that it does not give us a sufficient account of health, at most a necessary one. The alternative theory proposed is two-dimensional. First, health is to have developed the abilities and dispositions that members of one’s culture typically develop, and be able to use them, in acceptable circumstances; and second, health is to experience positive moods and sensations, the kinds that have internal causes. The theory solves the problems attached to Nordenfelt’s theory by not being individual relativistic, by eliminating the goals in the definition, by giving an alternative interpretation of “ability,” by making health easier to measure, and by adding the dimension of well-being that, together with health as ability, not only gives us a necessary, but also a sufficient, account of health.     

"Although We are Catholic, We are Dutch"—The Transition of the Dutch Catholic Church from Sect to Church as an Explanation for its Growth and Decline

The Dutch Catholic Church has experienced an immense growth and an equal measure of decline in the last two centuries. This article explains this development by using the sect-to-church theory, as has been developed by the rational choice theory of religion. This theory explains the growth and decline of a church by the degree of tension it has with society. Historical evidence is used to test this theory with regard to the Dutch Catholic Church. As long as that church was in tension with society it kept growing, but as soon as the tension decreased, which was already taking place prior to 1960, it declined.     

从人际关系看人格--认知-情感系统理论的视角

人格的认知—情感系统理论(cognitive-affective system theory of personality,简称CAPS)被视为是与大五人格理论齐名的一种人格理论。该文拟从个体外部的人际关系层面来阐述该理论,以加深对理论的理解。然后,又从CAPS与其它人际关系理论的契合说明该理论是一种整合性的人格理论。最后,指出了CAPS的优点和局限性,并由此对人格研究的未来发展方向进行了探讨。     

Axiomatic Theories of Partial Ground I

This is part one of a two-part paper, in which we develop an axiomatic theory of the relation of partial ground. The main novelty of the paper is the of use of a binary ground predicate rather than an operator to formalize ground. This allows us to connect theories of partial ground with axiomatic theories of truth. In this part of the paper, we develop an axiomatization of the relation of partial ground over the truths of arithmetic and show that the theory is a proof-theoretically conservative extension of the theory PT of positive truth. We construct models for the theory and draw some conclusions for the semantics of conceptualist ground.     

The interpretation of symptoms of severe dietary restraint

A recent cognitive-behavioural theory of eating disorders proposes that people with eating disorders interpret symptoms of dietary restraint in terms of control. The primary aim of the present study was to test this hypothesis. A second aim was to test the hypothesis derived from clinical observation that people with eating disorders view these symptoms positively. Forty-four participants meeting DSM-IV criteria for a clinical eating disorder and 80 control participants with no history of an eating disorder completed an ambiguous scenario paradigm and self-report measures of eating disorder features and depression. Patients with eating disorders were significantly more likely to interpret symptoms of dietary control in terms of control, providing support for the cognitive-behavioural theory. There was only partial support for the second hypothesis. The implications for the new cognitive-behavioural theory and therapy are discussed.     

The Two-Dimensional Content of Consciousness

In this paper I put forward a representationalist theory of conscious experience based on Robert Stalnaker’s version of two-dimensional modal semantics. According to this theory the phenomenal character of an experience correlates with a content equivalent to what Stalnaker calls the diagonal proposition. I show that the theory is closely related both to functionalist theories of consciousness and to higher-order representational theories. It is also more compatible with an anti-Cartesian view of the mind than standard representationalist theories.     

Markovian processes with identifiable states: General considerations and application to all-or-none learning

It often happens that a theory specifies some variables or states which cannot be identified completely in an experiment. When this happens, there are important questions as to whether the experiment is relevant to certain assumptions of the theory. Some of these questions are taken up in the present article, where a method is developed for describing the implications of a theory for an experiment. The method consists of constructing a second theory with all of its states identifiable in the outcome-space of the experiment. The method can be applied (i.e., an equivalent identifiable theory exists) whenever a theory specifies a probability function on the sample-space of possible outcomes of the experiment. An interesting relationship between lumpability of states and recurrent events plays an important role in the development of the identifiable theory. An identifiable theory of an experiment can be used to investigate relationships among different theories of the experiment. As an example, an identifiable theory of all-or-none learning is developed, and it is shown that a large class of all-or-none theories are equivalent for experiments in which a task is learned to a strict criterion.This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grant GB-319.