Evolution of multi‐criteria analysis: a scientometric analysis

The field of multi‐criteria analysis has known very important developments during the last 20 years, if one considers the very large amount of activities that it has generated and continues to generate (papers in journals, a dedicated journal, books, meetings, applications, …). Even if multi‐criteria analysis has reached some maturity, its future is subject to questions and debate among its researchers: what is the evolution of the field? What is its structure? Is it integrating new topics? In order to answer such questions at least partially, we have studied multi‐criteria analysis literature by means of the method of associated words (scientometric analysis) and the software ‘Leximappe’. All the abstracts of the papers which are relative to multi‐criteria analysis and are included in the bibliographic ABI‐INFORM database from 1985 to 1996 have been analysed. In this paper, we will present some results of this study. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The contributions of multi‐criteria decision making to the development of decision support systems subspecialties: an empirical investigation

This study focuses on examining the structure of decision support systems (DSS) research, with a particular emphasis on assessing the contributions of multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) to the development of each of the DSS subspecialty areas. This study traces how concepts and findings by researchers in the MCDM area have been picked up by DSS researchers to be applied, extended and refined in the development of DSS research subspecialties. In doing so, factor analysis is applied to an author cocitation frequency matrix derived from a large database file of comprehensive DSS literature. This study concludes that researchers in the MCDM area have made crucial contributions to the development of DSS research subspecialties. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A parameter analysis method for the weight‐set to satisfy preference orders of alternatives in additive multi‐criteria value models

In the context of the additive multi‐criteria value model, this paper investigates how the set of criteria weights (weight‐set hereafter) can be determined according to the preference orders of alternatives given by the decision maker. A construction method is proposed for the weight‐set for different intervals of β, where β is a differential amount of value between the preference information on two alternatives. The results of this paper are important for sensitivity analysis in multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) problems and multi‐criteria group decision analysis. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An investigation of the role of scale values in the DS/AHP method of multi‐criteria decision making

DS/AHP is a method of multi‐criteria decision making based on the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and the analytic hierarchy process. Central to the utilization of DS/AHP is the composing of preference judgements on identified groups of decision alternatives (DA) across a number of criteria against all the DA present in the problem in question. This paper exposits a series of results whose objectives are to aid in the development of an effective set of preference scale values for use within DS/AHP. These results relate directly to the concomitant level of ignorance (uncertainty) with the judgements made on a single criterion. Two particular directions of investigation are undertaken, firstly in determining the necessary number of scale values available and secondly finding the necessary differences between scale values, dependent on whether an arithmetic or geometric progression is the basis for the scale values. Through an example, the implications and utilization of these results within DS/AHP are illustrated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Survey on Development and Applications of the Multi‐criteria Decision Making Method MULTIMOORA

This paper focuses on the MULTIMOORA method. Specifically, it discusses its development as well as extensions alongside with an overview of their applications. Indeed, the MULTIMOORA is a relatively new multi‐criteria decision making method consisting of the three parts. Therefore, it is specific with peculiarities of both complete and partial aggregation techniques. The MULTIMOORA method consists of the three parts, namely the Ratio System, the Reference Point, and the Full Multiplicative Form. The paper discussed the extensions of MULTIMOORA into the fuzzy environment and group decision making. The carried out survey identified the two major areas of application of MOORA and MULTIMOORA, namely engineering decision support for technological development and economic researches. The economic researches can further be classified into those related to micro‐level or macro‐level analyses. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distance‐Based Measures of Specialization and Balance in Multi‐Criteria: A DEA‐Integrated Method

Decision makers pursuing several distinct goals may differ in their behaviour. Some try to achieve all goals simultaneously, whereas others concentrate on only certain ones and are therefore specialized. We present a new method of measuring the specialization degree with respect to a given standard balanced relation of the goals. The measurement is integrated into data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology, uses a non‐compensative distance measure, permits optional convex polyhedral cones as predefined balance sets and guarantees feasible solutions. Geometrically, it is based on the angle between the balance cone and the ray through the point of investigation. The proposed models can be used to support and complement the usual effectiveness and efficiency analysis in multi‐criteria decision analysis and DEA. They are motivated and illustrated by a simple numerical example, compared with an alternative method recently published and applied to real data from the literature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MCDM methods in strategic planning of forestry on state‐owned lands in Finland: applications and experiences

The forests in Finland have been under intensive planning for decades. Currently, mathematical programming is widely used in planning of wood production. Today's multi‐functional forestry, however, calls for more flexible decision support methods. MCDM tools have been used in responding to fresh planning challenges. For example, the Finnish Forest and Park Service, entrusted with the care of the vast majority of state‐owned natural resources in Finland, endeavours to produce large‐scale natural resource plans satisfying the needs of both economic, social, and ecological sustainability. Participatory approach is applied in the process. Several forestry applications of MCDM methods, particularly those making use of the AHP or the HIPRE program, have been presented. Also, the outranking methods ELECTRE and PROMETHEE have been tested. Due to the nature of forestry applications, statistical techniques for analysing uncertainties in pairwise comparisons and for utilizing interval judgement data have been developed to improve the usability of the AHP. Recently, a hybrid method called A'WOT, making use of the AHP and SWOT, was also introduced into strategic forest planning. This paper summarizes the experiences gained in applying a MAVT and two outranking methods in connection with a participatory natural resource planning process in Finland. In addition, some results of the method development work related to application needs are briefly presented. The details of the planning cases reviewed here have previously been presented in forestry journals. The purpose of this paper is not only to show how MCDM methods have been applied in forestry, but also to discuss the usability and usefulness of MCDM methods from the viewpoint of supporting forestry decision making—and how they might further be improved. Also, some perspectives for the future development work of MCDM applications in the field of natural resource management are focused on. As a conclusion, the use of more than just one MCDM method in a single planning process is seen usually recommendable. In addition, developing hybrid MCDM methods is regarded as a potential direction for future research. Also, closer co‐operation between method developers and appliers is called for to produce more useful applications. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Invited Review—Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications,Research Developments and Areas for Future Research

Criteria are the central focus of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Many authors have suggested using our values (or preferences) to define the criteria we use to evaluate alternatives. Value‐focused thinking (VFT) is an important philosophy that advocates a more fundamental view of values in our decision making in our private and professional lives. VFT proponents advocate starting first with our values and then using our values to create decision opportunities, evaluate alternatives and finally develop improved alternatives. It has been 20 years since VFT was first introduced by Ralph Keeney. This paper surveys the VFT literature to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications, describe the main research developments and identify areas for future research. We review the scope and magnitude of VFT applications and the key developments in theory since VFT was introduced in 1992 and found 89 papers written in 29 journals from 1992 to 2010. We develop about 20 research questions that include the type of article (application, theory, case study, etc.), the size of the decision space (which, when given, ranged from $200K to billions of dollars), the contribution documented in the article (application benefits) and the research contributions (categorized by preferences, uncertainties and alternatives). After summarizing the answers to these questions, we conclude the paper with suggestions for improving VFT applications and potential future research. We found a large number of significant VFT applications and several useful research contributions. We also found an increasing number of VFT papers written by international authors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.