行为决策研究的新取向——基于经验的决策

基于经验的决策是指,在统计概率情境中,个体通过重复选择与反馈获得选项的收益分布信息后进行的决策.基于经验的决策的研究范式主要包括探索-利用范式和探索→利用范式.其暗含的决策人假设是朴素直觉统计学家.其研究关注的主要内容是描述-经验的差异及其原因,以及基于经验的决策内部过程.未来的研究主要从描述-经验差异的原因、描述性决策范式下的结论的重新检验、基于经验的决策的解释模型及其应用研究等方面进行探讨.     

Decision Development in Computer-Assisted Group Decision Making

New computer technologies to aid group communication and decision making are becoming increasingly widespread. This study analyzes how one such technology, a group decision support system (GDSS), affected how group decisions developed over time. The study contrasted decision paths in groups using the GDSS with groups using the same procedural structures incorporated in the GDSS manually and with groups using no procedural structures. A flexible phase mapping method was employed to map group decision paths. The resulting set of seven decision paths varied in both sequence and number of decision phases. An optimal matching procedure was used to compute similarity measures among the 40 paths, and cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling were used to generate an empirical taxonomy of decision paths. Results indicated that the nature of decision paths varied both across the three conditions and within conditions. The decision path types were also related to three outcome variables: consensus change, perceived decision quality, and decision scheme satisfaction. Results indicated that those decision paths that most resembled logical normative sequences had superior outcomes to those that did not.     

Authorship Decision Making: An Empirical Investigation

This empirical study concerns the authorship credit decision-making processes and outcomes that occur among coauthors in cases of multiauthored publications. The 2002 American Psychological Association (APA) Ethics Code offers standards for determining authorship order; however, little is known about how these decisions are made in actual practice. Results from a survey of 109 randomly selected authors indicated that most authors were satisfied with the decision-making process and outcome with few disagreements. Participants reported cases of both undeserved authorship being given and omission of deserving contributors' names as coauthors. Some factors associated with authorship decisions included “sense of loyalty or obligation,” “publish or perish pressures,” and “power differentials.” Authors who used APA standards were significantly more satisfied with both the process and outcome of authorship credit decisions.     

Construing Consumer Decision Making

Understanding how consumers represent outcomes and weigh different decision criteria is critical to consumer behavior research. Construal‐level theory articulates how psychological distance alters the mental representation of inputs and the effective weight given to “high‐level” and “low‐level” criteria. Trope, Liberman, and Wakslak (2007) provide a review of this literature. In this commentary, we illustrate the relevance of construal‐level theory to issues in consumer psychology, particularly consumer decision making. We highlight specific questions that researchers could address by considering consumer behavior within the framework of changes in construal. We focus our discussion on how construal levels affect consideration sets and how shifts in weight from high‐level to low‐level features might lead to consumer regret and dissatisfaction. Construal level can help us understand follow‐through on stated intentions for “really new” products and illuminate public‐policy issues such as consumer saving for retirement and nonredemption of rebates. We identify open issues related to how construal levels for the same object evolve over time and whether resources differ in terms of how susceptible they are to psychological distance effects.     

Regret in Decision Making

Decision research has only recently started to take seriously the role of emotions in choices and decisions. Regret is the emotion that has received the most attention. In this article, we sample a number of the initial regret studies from psychology and economics, and trace some of the complexities and contradictions to which they led. We then sketch a new theory, decision justification theory (DJT), which synthesizes several apparently conflicting findings. DJT postulates two core components of decision–related regret, one associated with the (comparative) evaluation of the outcome, the other with the feeling of self–blame for having made a poor choice. We reinterpret several existing studies in DJT terms. We then report some new studies that directly tested (and support) DJT, and propose a number of research issues that follow from this new approach to regret.     

Decision Neuroscience: New Directions in Studies of Judgment and Decision Making

ABSTRACT— Investigations of decision making have historically been undertaken by different disciplines, each using different techniques and assumptions, and few unifying efforts have been made. Economists have focused on precise mathematical models of normative decision making, psychologists have examined how decisions are actually made based on cognitive constraints, and neuroscientists have concentrated on the detailed operation of neural systems in simple choices. In recent years, however, researchers in these separate fields have joined forces in an attempt to better specify the foundations of decision making. This interdisciplinary effort has begun to use decision theory to guide the search for the neural bases of reward value and predictability. Concurrently, these formal models are beginning to incorporate processes such as social reward and emotion. The combination of these diverse theoretical approaches and methodologies is already yielding significant progress in the construction of more comprehensive decision-making models.     

为临床决策的科学化而努力

当今,我国的临床医学实践正面临着深刻的挑战.摆在我们面前的现实是:一方面,医学科学的快速发展,为许多疾病的诊断和治疗提供了多种选择,为诊疗最优化提供了广阔的空间;另一方面,我们在应用医学发展提供的科学成果为病人诊治时,由于医生的学术基础、临床经验、诊疗决策、治疗动机的差异,其效果差别极大.辽宁省抗癌协会最近的一项抽样调查表明,该省癌症的规范化治疗率仅为32.46%,其中A级医院不规范治疗为53.21%,B级医院不规范治疗为66.49%,C级医院不规范治疗高达96.69%.     

不确定情境中的决策心理——适应与认知

不确定情境中的决策问题广受经济学家和心理学家关注,但他们对人的决策行为有不同的解释。该简要回顾了经济学和心理学视野中的决策理论,包括预期效用理论、主观预期效用理论和前景理论。主要介绍了“生态理性”观对人的决策心理的研究,着重介绍了研究发现的几种启发式策略,如“一个理由策略”,并探讨了他们在人适应过程中的作用。中最后分析了决策问题的研究现状。     

信息模糊：消费决策领域中的有限理性

信息模糊（obfuscation）是行为经济学研究的重要领域,主要解释了在商品买卖过程中,销售商通过把商品信息复杂化等手段,让人们的消费过程变得更加复杂和困难,从而使消费者在购买商品时面对信息模糊做出种种不明智的选择的现象问题。本文从以往的研究成果出发,就信息模糊、有限理性和销售者的决策行为的关系进行了探讨,以期为信息模糊的跨学科研究提供可借鉴的思路和方法。     

Affect in Ethical Decision Making: Mood Matters

Ethical decision-making research has centered on Rest’s (1986) framework that represents a rational, nonaffective model for ethical decision making. However, research in human cognition suggesting a “dual-processing” framework, composed of both rational and affective components, has been relatively ignored in the ethical decision-making literature. Examining dual-processing literature, it seems affect might be an important factor in decision making when a person’s mood is congruent with the task or situational context frame. Given that ethical decisions are serious and complex tasks, it is proposed here that inducing a negative affective state might produce mood congruence, reinforce the salience of emotion for ethical decision makers, and lead to differences in decision processing. Evidence is presented documenting differences in the decisions made by ethical decision makers in a negative affective state as compared to those in either a positive or neutral affective state.     

青少年风险决策的时程加工机制：来自ERP的证据

采用事件相关电位（ERP）研究技术,运用剑桥风险任务的实验范式,考察了青少年风险决策的时程加工机制。行为结果表明,在高、中、低三种不确定性条件下,相对于效价,被试的决策更多的关注概率。脑电结果显示：1）不确定性的主效应在N400上表现显著,高不确定条件和中不确定条件的波幅要明显大于低不确定性条件的波幅,而高不确定条件和中不确定条件的波幅无显著差异;2）与中不确定条件相比,高不确定条件和低不确定条件诱发了一个新异正成分（LPC）,高不确定条件和低不确定条件的波幅要明显大于中不确定性条件的波幅,而高不确定条件和低不确定条件的波幅无显著差异。青少年在风险任务中的决策较多的是选择安全选项,表现出较为明显的风险规避倾向。N400的波幅可能反映了不确定性程度,而LPC的波幅大小可能反映了结果评价准确性程度的高低。     

Religion and Political Decision Making

Influential political theorists suggest that religious differences in political life may be overcome through shared commitment to political processes. In this article, I subject the underlying assumptions of this proposition to empirical inquiry. When faced with substantive conflict over policy outcomes, do religious persons defer to a political process for resolution? And if so, to which political process do they defer? Through a novel interview exercise with 61 respondents from a variety of religious backgrounds, I find a general willingness to defer to a legitimate political process, even if it results in an undesirable outcome that violates religious (or other) political preferences. However, I also find that a political process need not be democratic to be seen as legitimate, and that process preferences do not map onto religious differences.     

决策过程中的记忆可提取性效用

记忆的可提取性效用是人们在评估过往事件时所感受到的愉悦或满意程度, 这种评估建立在人们从记忆中提取出的信息基础上。研究发现, 人们对过往事件进行评估时会出现违反效用最大化原则的决策, 主要表现在三个实验现象上：峰终律、时长忽视和违背单调叠加性。研究者多从原型判断的角度去理解这些现象, 但可提取性效用是否还有其他内在机制仍然有待进一步研究。     

多维视野下的临床决策

临床决策是临床实践的重要组成部分之一,随着时代和科学技术的发展,临床决策的内涵和方法也发生了深刻的变化.有许多的因素影响或决定临床决策的质量,如何正确处理好循证医学证据与经验、传统方法和现代技术、创新与人文主义精神、技术与费用等关系是一个十分复杂的课题,需要从临床、经济、社会和法律等多方面加以研究和探索.     

医患共同决策诊疗模式的现状分析

医患共同决策诊疗模式已经践行了许多年.系统检测,卓有成效.但是,在实践过程中仍然有很多问题存在.尽管许多医生认为自己已经使用了共同决策,但是研究显示出现实与感知的差异.由于我们的决策面对的是需要治疗的患者,而患者是存在个体差异的;同时,医学知识和技术是在不断发展和进步的,所以医生需要改变传统的决策方式,重视医学证据、可用资源和患者的价值取向.     

多维视野下的临床决策

临床决策是临床实践的重要组成部分之一,随着时代和科学技术的发展,临床决策的内涵和方法也发生了深刻的变化。有许多的因素影响或决定临床决策的质量,如何正确处理好循证医学证据与经验、传统方法和现代技术、创新与人文主义精神、技术与费用等关系是一个十分复杂的课题,需要从临床、经济、社会和法律等多方面加以研究和探索。     

Content Effects on Decision Making

How does the domain or subject matter of a decision problem affect the outcome of the decision? Although decision-making research typically dismisses content as merely a cover story, the present research shows that it plays a fundamental role in the decision process by influencing the information processing that underlies it. An experiment is reported in which the same basic decision problem was presented in several content domains (legal traffic tickets, academic course grades, stock investments, and casino gambling). The changes in content led to changes in both strategies and mental representations, which in turn led to changes in decision outcomes, even though measures of the subjective utilities of the options remained unchanged.     

行为决策中的后悔

后悔是行为决策领域中有关决策情感的最重要研究领域之一.后悔是一种基于认知的消极情感,当个体意识到或者想象出如果先前采取其他的行为,将产生更好的结果时,就会产生后悔情感.许多研究证据表明后悔将会影响人们的行为决策.本文简要回顾了后悔的定义和影响因素,结合研究者提出的不同后悔模型,从作为效应、后悔规避和不作为惯性等方面,具体介绍了后悔对决策行为的作用,并探讨了行为决策中后悔研究的未来发展方向.