Subjective utility,anticipated utility,and the Allais paradox

One of the most notable counterexamples to expected utility theory is the “Allais paradox” (M. Allais, 1953, Econometrica, 31, 503–546). A number of alternative theories have been proposed in an attempt to resolve this paradox, notably including Karmarkar, 1978, Karmarkar, 1979, 24, 67–72). It is shown that SWU theory necessarily involves violations of dominance, but that the theory can be modified to avoid these violations. The result is a special case of J. Quiggin's anticipated utility theory (1982, Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, 3, 323–343).     

Spatial memory in rats under restricted viewing conditions

In a procedure devised by J. A. Walker and D. S. Olton (Learning and Motivation, 1979, 10, 73–84), rats were placed on two arms of a four-arm radial maze and then were placed in the center of the maze to test how accurately they could choose the alleys on which they had not been placed. In three experiments, the conditions under which animals viewed the environment from the arms were varied. In Experiment 1, both the extent of spatial view and the exposure time were varied factorially in a within-subjects design; animals viewed the environment down a tunnel or had a 180° or 360° view, and subjects were allowed to view the environment for either 2 or 20 sec. In Experiment 2, a between-subjects design was used, in which different groups of subjects were tested repeatedly under either the tunnel, 180°, or 360° conditions. Both experiments showed that animals could avoid the arms previously visited at no better than a chance level of accuracy in the tunnel viewing condition but could perform with progressively better accuracy at the 180 and 360° viewing conditions. Animals also were more accurate in Experiment 1 after viewing for 20 sec than after viewing for 2 sec. Experiment 3 involved a procedure in which restricted viewing conditions were used both during arm placements and testing. Animals tested under tunnel viewing eventually achieved above-chance performance with this procedure, but did not exceed chance as rapidly as groups tested with 45 and 90° views of the environment. These results suggest that animals can learn about their position in a spatial environment through observation and that an animal's ability to locate its position is directly related to the extent of the surrounding environment it can see and the length of time it is allowed to look. The implications of these findings for list and map hypotheses of spatial memory representation are discussed.     

Causal report accuracy: Retrospect and prospect

The paper by M. Sprangers, W. van den Brink, J. van Heerden, and J. Hoogstraten (1987, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 23, 302–310) shows that my experiment (P. White, 1980, Psychological Review, 87, 105–112) cannot be interpreted as evidence against the proposal by R. Nisbett and T. Wilson (1977, Psychological Review, 84, 231–259) that accuracy of causal reports cannot be improved by information about internal events. However, the state of all existing literature on this topic is inconclusive because of the failure so far to run an internally valid test. It is suggested that further progress on this topic may depend upon theoretical innovation concentrating on social and practical factors in verbal report generation.     

Learned helplessness and the schedule-shift hypotheses

The critique of learned helplessness research and theory and the alternative schedule-shift discrimination hypothesis offered by McReynolds (Journal of Research and Personality, 1980,14, 139–157) are considered. Each point made by McReynolds is discussed and a variety of recent experimental evidence is reviewed. It is concluded that McReynolds' critique is without substance and that the schedule-shift discrimination explanation of the learned helplessness effect is contradicted by existing data.     

Construct validation of the dependency and self-criticism scales of the depressive experiences questionnaire

S. J. Blatt (Psychoanalytic Study of the Child, 1974, 29, 107–157) distinguished between two types of depressive experiences, one characterized by strong dependency needs and the other by self-criticism and guilt. This paper reports a series of validation studies of the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire (DEQ), which was developed to measure individuals' vulnerabilities to these types of experiences (S. J. Blatt, J. P. D'Afflitti, & D. M. Quinlan, Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 1976, 85, 383–389). The Dependency and Self-Criticism scales were shown to be stable in the face of both a 13-week interval and the receipt of midterm grades. Dependency was associated with conflict concerning the expression of hostility and, in males, feelings of helplessness. Self-Criticism was associated with low self-esteem and high levels of morality-conscience guilt. In a study of behavior in dyadic problem-solving tasks, Dependency in males was found to be negatively related to task leadership, and Self-Criticism in females tended to be negatively related to judged likeability. On the other hand, little support was found for the hypotheses that Dependency would be related to field dependent cognitive style and to the use of primitive defense mechanisms. The results were viewed as supporting the utility of Blatt's distinction between the two types of depression, but a number of anomalous findings indicated a need for further study of the DEQ. The question of the developmental level of the two types of depression, possible sex differences in the correlates of the scales, and the possibility of situational specificity in individuals' responses were identified as the areas most in need of study.     

Task performance and magnitude of goal valence

J. W. Brehm and his associates (J. W. Brehm, R. A. Wright, S. Solomon, L. Silka, & J. Greenberg, 1983, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 21–48) recently argued that the magnitude of goal valence (the attractiveness or unattractiveness of a potential outcome) varies directly with motivational arousal level. Motivational arousal, in turn, is thought to be a function of the perceived difficulty of goal attainment. This formulation was tested in the present study by examining the relationship between goal attractiveness ratings and performance on an anagram task. According to the Yerkes-Dodson law (R. M. Yerkes & J. D. Dodson, 1908, Journal of Comparative Neurological Psychology, 18, 459–482), the relationship between motivational arousal and performance should be curvilinear; optimal performance is usually observed for moderate levels of motivation relative to either low or very high motivation levels. Consistent with the Brehm et al. hypothesis, optimum performance in the present study was observed for subjects who reported moderate levels of goal attractiveness relative to subjects who reported either low or high levels of goal attractiveness. Anticipatory ratings of the difficulty of the anagrams were also congruent with the Brehm et al. model. These findings converge with data from other studies supporting the utility of goal attractiveness as an index of motivational arousal and provide an additional dimension of support for the model proposed by Brehm et al.     

The role of need level and/or need salience as moderators of the relationship between need satisfaction and work alienation-involvement

Contrary to previous findings documenting the importance of higher-order need satisfaction, a recent study by G. J. Gorn and R. N. Kanungo (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1980, 26, 265–277) has indicated that satisfaction of lower-order needs may lead to job involvement if such needs are salient. Data from a heterogeneous sample of 632 employees from six organizations were used to test six hypotheses concerning the effects of need level (higher vs lower order) and need salience as moderators of the relationship between need satisfaction and alienation-involvement. Three different ways of operationalizing need saliency were used, including a replication of Gorn and Kanungo's procedure. Higherorder need satisfaction was correlated with alienation-involvement scores to a significantly greater degree than was lower-order need satisfaction, even for those for whom lower-order needs were most salient. Need saliency was not found to moderate the need satisfaction-involvement relationship when need level was controlled. Issues regarding the operationalization of “need salience” were discussed and a new measure of alienation-involvement (the A-I Scale) was introduced. Implications for further empirical investigations of the need saliency issue were noted, as was the universal application of job enrichment programs aimed at promoting higher-order need satisfaction.     

Illusory conjunctions in the perception of objects

In perceiving objects we may synthesize conjunctions of separable features by directing attention serially to each item in turn (A. Treisman and G. Gelade, Cognitive Psychology, 1980, 12, 97–136). This feature-integration theory predicts that when attention is diverted or overloaded, features may be wrongly recombined, giving rise to “illusory conjunctions.” The present paper confirms that illusory conjunctions are frequently experienced among unattended stimuli varying in color and shape, and that they occur also with size and solidity (outlined versus filled-in shapes). They are shown both in verbal recall and in simultaneous and successive matching tasks, making it unlikely that they depend on verbal labeling or on memory failure. They occur as often between stimuli differing on many features as between more similar stimuli, and spatial separation has little effect on their frequency. Each feature seems to be coded as an independent entity and to migrate, when attention is diverted, with few constraints from the other features of its source or destination.     

The logic of social exchange: has natural selection shaped how humans reason? Studies with the Wason selection task

In order to successfully engage in social exchange--cooperation between two or more individuals for mutual benefit--humans must be able to solve a number of complex computational problems, and do so with special efficiency. Following Marr (1982), Cosmides (1985) and Cosmides and Tooby (1989) used evolutionary principles to develop a computational theory of these adaptive problems. Specific hypotheses concerning the structure of the algorithms that govern how humans reason about social exchange were derived from this computational theory. This article presents a series of experiments designed to test these hypotheses, using the Wason selection task, a test of logical reasoning. Part I reports experiments testing social exchange theory against the availability theories of reasoning; Part II reports experiments testing it against Cheng and Holyoak's (1985) permission schema theory. The experimental design included eight critical tests designed to choose between social exchange theory and these other two families of theories; the results of all eight tests support social exchange theory. The hypothesis that the human mind includes cognitive processes specialized for reasoning about social exchange predicts the content effects found in these experiments, and parsimoniously explains those that have already been reported in the literature. The implications of this line of research for a modular view of human reasoning are discussed, as well as the utility of evolutionary biology in the development of computational theories.     

A signal detection framework for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts

In this paper I formulate an approach for evaluating probabilistic forecasts in terms of signal detection theory. Signal detection theory provides a powerful perspective for this type of problem, and a rich empirical background including methodological tools as well as an extensive body of research in many domains. I propose procedures which emphasize the maximization of expected utility for the decision maker who uses the forecasts. Further, I suggest approaches to obtaining indices of calibration and resolution within this framework. I also present arguments that the proposed indices will exhibit the same basic properties as do decompositions of Brier's (1950, Monthly Weather Review, 78, 1–3) mean probability score. However, the properties may be reflected in different ways, and hence, the present methods may lead to different conclusions about forecasting ability. Finally, I argue that the use of an expected utility loss function makes this approach more appropriate for practical applications as well as for theoretical research than other procedures with more arbitrary loss functions.     

Long-delay taste aversion learning in an unpoisoned rat: Exposure to a poisoned rat as the unconditioned stimulus

M. J. Lavin, B. Freise, and S. Coombes (Behavioral and Neural Biology, 1980, 28, 15–33) have shown that if two rats consume a flavored solution and one is poisoned, the unpoisoned partner will also exhibit a flavor aversion during a later preference test. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that a sufficient condition for obtaining this aversion is that the poisoned partner be present with the unpoisoned rat after it has consumed the flavored solution. It is not necessary that the poisoned partner be present when the flavored solution is consumed or indeed have had any exposure to the flavored solution. Experiment 3 showed that the unpoisoned partner can exhibit a flavor aversion when there is a temporal gap of as long as 6 hr between consumption of the flavored solution and exposure to the poisoned rat.     

A characterization theorem for random utility variables

In this note we investigate the condition that the distribution of the maximum of a set of random variables does not depend on which variable attains the maximum. This problem arises in random utility theory. When the random variables are independent, the property implies that all the marginal distributions must be Double Exponential (with distribution function exp(?e^?x) in standard form). When dependence is allowed the property characrerizes a much broader class consisting of arbitrary functions of arbitrary homogeneous functions of the variables e^?xi, a result stated without proof in D. J. Strauss (Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 1979, 20, 35–52). These are the distributions such that the maximum has the same distribution (apart from a location shift) as the marginals, provided the marginals are the same.     

Developmental aspects of the generation effect

Children from Grades 2, 3, 5, and 7 (7.6, 9, 11, and 13 years of age, respectively) were required to generate or study exemplars of semantic categories (semantic orientation) or rhymes to stimulus words (phonetic orientation). Each child then participated in one of three retention tests: free recall, standard recognition, and rhyme recognition. The results indicated that the developmental emergence of the “generation effect” (C. E. McFarland, Jr., T. J. Frey, & D. D. Rhodes, Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 1980, 19, 210–225; N. J. Slamecka & P. Graf, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 1978, 4, 592–604) was dependent on both encoding orientation and the type of retention task employed. A substantial generation effect first emerged (7-year-olds) for standard recognition in the semantic condition. A similar effect for recall was evident for 9-year olds, but not for younger children. Internal stimulus generation became a strong memory facilitator for phonetically encoded items at age 11 for standard recognition, but not until age 13 for recall. The results of the rhyme recognition test indicated that internal generation facilitated “transfer-appropriate processing” (C. D. Morris, J. D. Bransford, & J. J. Franks, Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 1977, 16, 519–533) only for seventh graders (age 13). The processes underlying this developmental pattern were discussed.     

The ambiguity of recognition memory tests of schema theories

The majority of theories about the effects of schemata (or generic knowledge structures) on information processing share two fundamental assumptions. It is assumed, first, that schema-based inferences about unobserved features of an event are generated, and, second, that such inferences are stored in long-term memory and thereby confused with traces of observed features of that event. To test these assumptions, researchers rely heavily on recognition memory measures of hit and false alarm rates. In the present paper, it is observed that schema theoretic interpretations of recognition memory measures are inconsistent with an interpretation jointly derived from the theory of signal detection and Mandler's (1980, Psychological Review, 87, 252–271) subjective familiarity theory of recognition memory; from the latter's perspective, recognition memory measures are considerably more ambiguous than schema researchers realize and do not necessarily support the typical schema theoretic interpretations. Data from four experiments are analyzed from the perspective of the theory of signal detection/ subjective familiarity model and demonstrate the ambiguity of recognition memory measures for testing hypotheses about the function and consequences of schemata for information processing.     

Young children's free responses to anomalous commands

Twelve children, 21–34 months old, six in R. Brown's Stage I and six in Stages II and III, responded to commands varying in length, grammaticality, and meaning. All of the children responded significantly less often when the commands were situationally anomalous and/or ungrammatical. Results failed to replicate the results of E. Shipley, E. Smith, and L. Gleitman (Language, 1969, 44, 332–342) and J. Wetstone and B. Friedlander (Child Development, 1973, 44, 743–750). The results also suggest that young children rely heavily upon situational cues in their earliest comprehension of adult speech, and this supports arguments made by J. Strohner and K. Nelson (Child Development, 45, 567–576) and R. Chapman and J. Miller (Journal of Speech and Hearing, 1975, 18, 355–371). Since subjects rely upon nonlinguistic cues to respond appropriately, syntactic competence cannot be inferred from apparent comprehension.     

Creating and criticizing theory

F. W. Vondracek, R. M. Lerner, and J. E. Schulenberg (Journal of Vocational Behavior, 1983, 23, 179–202) criticize the vocational literature for failing to “follow acceptable scientific procedures for building a theory” and for failing to attend to important methodological and substantive developments. It is argued here that no single acceptable process for creating theory exists and three strategies useful for developing a theory are illustrated: immerse yourself in data, pick a specific set of results to explain, and try to resolve inconsistencies in the literature. Three criteria for evaluating theories and criticisms of them are discussed: comprehensiveness (content value), accuracy (truth value), and clarity (form). The paper by Vondracek et al. is examined from this perspective and is shown to lack the specificity, clarity, and accuracy necessary to be an effective guide to better vocational research or theory.     

Differential relationships of extraversion,impulsivity, and sociability to study habits

Reanalysis of data on library study habits presented by J. B. Campbell and C. W. Hawley (Journal of Research in Personality, 1982, 16, 139–148) revealed differential utility for the EPI extraversion scale and its components, impulsivity and sociability. Individuals studying in locations that provided greater external stimulation had significantly higher extraversion and impulsivity, but not sociability, scores than individuals studying elsewhere in the library. Impulsivity was more strongly associated than sociability with preferred noise levels, frequency of study breaks, and importance and preferred levels of socializing opportunities, but less strongly associated with preferred levels of crowdedness. Findings are discussed in terms of the interpretation, reliabilities, and theoretical context of the subscales.     

Why additive utility models fail as descriptions of choice behavior

This experiment sought to determine whether previously found metric violations of additive expectancy-value models C.F. J. C. Shanteau, Journal of Experimental Psychology, 1974, 103, 680–691; J. G. Lynch and J. L. Cohen, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1978, 36, 1138–1151) were attributable to the inappropriateness of these models or to nonlinearities in the relationship between numerical ratings and underlying psychological impressions. Undergraduate participants performed two tasks employing the same experimental stimuli. In the first task, they rated the subjective values of hypothetical bets, judged separately and in combination. In the second task, they made pairwise comparisons of the same bets in terms of preference. The use of the same experimental stimuli in both tasks allowed a test of alternative models of utility judgment through application of the criterion of scale convergence (M. H. Birnbaum & C. T. Veit, Perception and Psychophysics, 1974, 15, 7–15). Results suggested that the additive expectancy-value model of judgments of the utilities of combinations of outcomes should be replaced by a weighted averaging rule in which the weight given to the value of each outcome in the averaging process is greater when this value is negative and extreme than when it is neutral.     

An assessment of cerebral dominance in language-disordered children via a time-sharing paradigm

A time-sharing paradigm was used to assess language lateralization in language-disordered and normal children aged 4–7 years. Several expressive language tasks as well as a vocal, but nonlinguistic, task were administered concurrently with unimanual finger tapping. Dependent variables were percent disruption scores and number of syllables produced per concurrent trial. All language concurrent tasks produced tapping reductions for both hands for both groups. This result contrasts to similar time-sharing studies claiming asymmetrical interference and hence language lateralization in children (N. White & M. Kinsbourne, 1980, Brain and Language, 10, 215–223; J. Obrzut, G. Hynd, A. Obrzut, & J. Leitgeb, 1980, Brain and Language, 11, 181–194). A multiple regression analysis revealed a significant interaction effect differentiating language-disordered from normal children. Normals exhibited a parallel response pattern for speech and tapping (both increased or decreased in rate) under all lateralization conditions. Language-disordered children exhibited an inverse response pattern (e.g., if speech output increased, tapping rate decreased) only under left-hemisphere time-sharing.     

The strong proof from hypotheses and conditionals: Some theorems of deduction for relevant systems

The aim of this paper is to present a modified version of the notion of strong proof from hypotheses (definition D2), and to give three deduction theorems for the relevant logicsR (theoremsT1, andT2) andE (theoremT3).