“过分自信”的研究及其跨文化差异

“过分自信”是一种偏离校准,是指人们关于一般知识问题的概率判断通常以某种方式偏离校准,这种偏离都偏高。跨文化系列研究表明：面对常识和概率判断问题,集体主义文化成员（如中国人）比个体主义文化成员（如美国人）更过分自信。文章在简要回顾“过分自信”研究的基础上,对“过分自信”的跨文化差异及原因进行了比较详细地介绍,并对“过分自信”跨文化差异研究的进一步发展和实际应用进行讨论。冀对以往的研究做初步的归纳和总结,促进决策领域中跨文化比较方面的研究得到进一步发展     

生态心理学之界说

生态心理学目前还没有形成一种统一的范式,把它称为一种取向比把它称为一种学科更为合适,更能反映它内部复杂的现状,也更具包容性。生态心理学有广义和狭义之分,我们通常所说的是指狭义生态心理学。狭义生态心理学的两大理论核心是以巴克为代表和以吉布森为代表的理论范式,其他人的思想都基本上在整合和延伸他们的思想的基础上展开的。作为一种研究取向,可以把狭义生态心理学初步界定为：生态心理学是一种强调研究动物(人)-环境交互体的动态交互过程,尤其倾向于研究生态环境中的具有功能意义的心理现象的取向。     

亲缘利他的不对称性：进化视角的分析

内含适应性理论是进化生物学和进化心理学中最重要的理论之一。该理论假设, 个体的亲属是其适应性的载体, 但亲属们的价值有所不同。大量研究发现, 亲属的利他行为表现出不对称性, 即遗传相关系数相同的亲属表现出不同的利他倾向。如祖父母对孙辈的投资中, 外祖母往往投入最多, 外祖父和祖母次之, 祖父投入最少。研究者用内含适应性理论来解释这种亲缘利他差异, 进而提出了“父亲身份不确定性”等具体的进化假设。未来研究中, 国内研究者应在正确理解内含适应性理论的基础上, 更多关注亲缘利他的不对称性, 采用多种数据采集方法和统一的评定指标。     

进化心理学视角下的智力研究

进化心理学和差异心理学是心理学的两个分支。进化心理学认为智力是一种进化的适应。差异心理学中智力是个体差异变量。本文试图整合二者的观点。认为智力既是进化的适应,也是个体差异变量。这将启示进化心理学家去研究更广范围的心理特质,允许智力研究和差异心理学运用进化心理学的理论和概念。本文还介绍了与智力进化相关的热带草原法则和Kanazawa的Savanna—IQ互动假说。     

谈设计与现代设计

广义的设计是人类和整个宇宙共同具有的一种追求秩序的力量,是指人们一切的计划和安排活动;狭义设计是指现代设计,是产生于工业革命后,其现代性包括现代社会的工业生产和科技进步,民主平等的社会思想,实用、理性、简洁的审美观。我们所说的设计其实包括广义和狭义两方面的含义:广义的设计,是指人们一切的计划和安排活动。从这个意义上讲,设计其实是人们所拥有的,一种整个宇宙共同具有的追求秩序的力量和冲动;狭义的设计,是指现代设计。现代设计产生于工     

拿破仑情结的进化：相对身高劣势和求偶动机对男性冒险行为的影响

研究以性选择理论为基础, 探讨了与同性竞争者的相对身高劣势和求偶动机对男性冒险行为的影响。4个研究一致显示, 与同性竞争者存在的身高劣势会导致男性提高自身冒险性; 且高求偶动机水平的男性, 会更多地表现出这种补偿性行为。这些结果提示, 拿破仑情结具有进化的基础, 男性在自身身高与竞争者相比处于劣势时, 采用冒险行为进行补偿是男性用以解决性内竞争和性间竞争问题的一种适应器。     

大学生自信发展特点的研究

本研究选取931名大学生为被试,采用自编“大学生自信问卷”?考察了大学生自信的年龄特点、性别差异及学校类型差异。结果表明：大学生自信总水平差异显著,除社交自信外,整体自信、学业自信和身体自信均存在极显著性别差异,男生高于女生;大学生在整体、学业和身体自信及其分维度上存在显著年级差异：一、四年级显著高于二、三年级,其中三年级自信度明显低于其它年级;学业、社交、身体自信及其分维度存在显著学校类型差异,非重点大学学生显著高于重点大学学生;年级和学校类型在身体自信、整体自信、学业自信、社交自信及其某些层面上存在显著交互作用;性别和学校类型在身体自信某分维度的交互作用达显著水平。     

马克思恩格斯宗教批判是否应有狭义、广义之分?

马克思恩格斯宗教批判作为马克思恩格斯宗教理论的一部分，一直为学者所关注。目前大部分学者仅从狭义的角度理解马克思恩格斯宗教批判，而在此之外还应存在一种从广义上理解马克思恩格斯宗教批判的方式。梳理这两种理解马克思恩格斯宗教批判的方式与各自的内涵，探寻两种方式的合理性与立意，进而推导出狭义、广义两种理解方式的理论意义，有助于从历时性的角度理解早期马克思恩格斯宗教观并为丰富马克思主义宗教学的学科性提供理论基础。因此，有必要对马克思恩格斯宗教批判进行狭义与广义的理解区分，以期进一步丰富中国特色社会主义宗教理论体系。     

认识方法与认识模型的变换

认识方法有狭义和广义之分:狭义的认识方法是指人们探讨人类认识现象时所使用的一些具体的方法,如分析与综合、抽象与具体、归纳与演绎等等;广义的认识方法是指人们说明自然界、社会和人类思维规律的方式。广义的认识方法与特定的研究对象、与相应的表述概念相结合,就构成认识模型,指导人们认识和把握自然界、社会和人类思维的规律和本质。在认识史上,一种新的广义的认识方法的形成,总要或迟或早地引起认识模型的变换,     

颜色类别知觉效应的机制：语言的作用

颜色类别知觉效应(Category Perception, CP效应)表明, 在颜色之间物理差异距离相等的前提下, 个体区分不同类别的颜色比区分同一类别的颜色更快、更准确。这一效应产生的机制成为普遍进化理论和Sapir-Whorf假设之间争论的重要证据。支持CP效应由语言驱动的学者提出了CP效应单侧化、受语言即时任务影响、跨语言研究和神经生理机制等证据, 以表明语言在CP效应中起决定性的作用; 支持CP效应具有普遍性的学者以CP效应双侧化、婴儿的CP效应、跨语言的反证等证据提出了质疑。近年来, 出现了第三种观点, 认为在颜色CP效应中语言驱动机制和普遍机制并存, 这种理论是普遍进化理论和Whorf假设的折衷观点。从支持CP效应由语言驱动的证据、支持CP效应独立于语言的证据以及支持两种机制并存的观点等三个方面入手, 可分析颜色CP效应的产生机制及语言在其中所起的作用, 未来研究可从概念系统渗入知觉系统的角度进行拓展。     

The Baldwin effect: a neglected influence on C. G. Jung's evolutionary thinking

This paper considers the claim that C. G. Jung used a Lamarckian model of evolution to underwrite his theory of archetypes. This claim is challenged on the basis of Jung's familiarity with and use of the writings of James Mark Baldwin and Conway Lloyd Morgan, both of whom were noted and forceful opponents of neo-Lamarckian theory from within a neo-Darwinian framework. The paper then outlines the evolutionary model proposed by Baldwin and Lloyd Morgan, which has come to be known as Baldwinian evolution or the Baldwin effect. This model explicitly views psychological factors as central to the evolutionary process. Finally, the use of Baldwinian thinking in contemporary theorizing regarding language and other symbolic systems is reviewed and suggestions are made regarding the implications of Baldwinian models for theory building in analytical psychology.     

先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响

研究考察了先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响。结果发现：(1)先前情绪的主效应显著, 积极情绪比消极情绪的个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求;过度自信的主效应显著, 高过度自信比低过度自信个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求。(2)先前情绪和过度自信水平交互影响灾难事件后继风险决策。高过度自信者在积极情绪状态下比在消极情绪状态下更倾向于风险寻求; 消极情绪状态下过度自信水平不同的个体之间没有显著差异。     

过度自信的研究展望

过度自信是个体高估自身判断精确度的一种认知偏差。过高估计和过高定位作为过度自信的两种主要类型被认为是个体在评价其绝对能力和相对能力时的表现。一般认为信息加工的偏差与判断误差的无偏性是造成过高估计的主要原因。自我提升动机、权重差异与信息的差异被认为是产生过高定位的原因。但是过度自信的这两种类型却在不同难度的任务巾出现了分离现象。最近,研究者提出了贝叶斯过度自信,用贝叶斯推理对不同任务中二者的分离进行了整合。过度自信产生的原因和内在心理机制、过度自信对决策的影响以及过度自信中的个体差异研究将会成为该领域日后研究的趋势。     

Niche construction, biological evolution, and cultural change

We propose a conceptual model that maps the causal pathways relating biological evolution to cultural change. It builds on conventional evolutionary theory by placing emphasis on the capacity of organisms to modify sources of natural selection in their environment (niche construction) and by broadening the evolutionary dynamic to incorporate ontogenetic and cultural processes. In this model, phenotypes have a much more active role in evolution than generally conceived. This sheds light on hominid evolution, on the evolution of culture, and on altruism and cooperation. Culture amplifies the capacity of human beings to modify sources of natural selection in their environments to the point where that capacity raises some new questions about the processes of human adaptation.     

A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities

A stochastic model of the calibration of subjective probabilities based on support theory (Rottenstreich and Tversky, 1997, Tversky and Koehler, 1994) is presented. This model extends support theory—a general representation of probability judgment—to the domain of calibration, the analysis of the correspondence between subjective and objective probability. The random support model can account for the common finding of overconfidence, and also predicts the form of the relationship between overconfidence and item difficulty (the “hard–easy effect”). The parameters of the model have natural psychological interpretations, such as discriminability between correct and incorrect hypotheses, and extremity of judgment. The random support model can be distinguished from other stochastic models of calibration by: (a) using fewer parameters, (b) eliminating the use of variable cutoffs by mapping underlying support directly into judged probability, (c) allowing validation of model parameters with independent assessments of support, and (d) applying to a wide variety of tasks by framing probability judgment in the integrative context of support theory.     

Chaos theory and the evolution of consciousness and mind: A thermodynamic-holographic resolution to the mind-body problem

This address describes Neurological Positivism's (NP) energetic evolution of consciousness, mind, and the brain-mind relationship within a model that integrates ideas and research from chaos theory, Pribram's holonomic brain theory, evolutionary theory, and the laws of thermodynamics (the energy laws The energetic evolution and encapsulation of space-time consciousness from chaotic-holographic environments is described. Consciousness is described as a natural evolutionary space-time template of continuously generated self-referential energy patterns (algorithms). The energetic evolution of mind is described as a natural self-referential exteriorization of the algorithmic organization of consciousness in the form of culturally shared mental models. It is proposed that the brain-mind energy relationship has historically undergone and continues to undergo change, and that this change is a natural thermodynamic arrow that constitutes the evolution of culture. That is, the evolution of culture proceeds in the direction of progressively more complete and efficient exteriorizations of the algorithmic organization of the brain-thus, for example, the recent evolution of brain-like computing systems and virtual reality systems. Accordingly, an uneven, but closing, central-energy-state identity (self-similarity) between brain and mind is described. It is concluded that NP's conception of mind helps us understand the evolutionary unfoldment of culture, and provides a sense of direction as to its future.     

Population Thinking in Epistemic Evolution: Bridging Cultural Evolution and the Philosophy of Science

Researchers in cultural evolutionary theory (CET) have recently proposed the foundation of a new field of research in cultural evolution named ‘epistemic evolution’. Drawing on evolutionary epistemology’s early studies, this programme aims to study science as an evolutionary cultural process. The paper discusses the way CET’s study of science can contribute to the philosophical debate and, vice versa, how the philosophy of science can benefit from the adoption of a cultural evolutionary perspective. Here, I argue that CET’s main contribution to an evolutionary model of scientific growth comes from the application of ‘population thinking’ to science. Populationism offers a ‘variation based’ understanding of scientists’ epistemic and socio-epistemic criteria that is able to better accommodate the variegated preferences that intervene in scientific epistemic decisions. A discussion of the so called theory choice context is offered as an example of the way a populationist approach can shed new light on the operation of scientists’ epistemic choices.

     

Confidence in judgment

Experiments have shown that, generally, people are overconfident about the correctness of their answers to questions. Cognitive psychologists have attributed this to biases in the way people generate and handle evidence for and against their views. The overconfidence phenomenon and cognitive psychologists' accounts of its origins have recently given rise to three debates. Firstly, ecological psychologists have proposed that overconfidence is an artefact that has arisen because experimenters have used question material not representative of the natural environment. However, it now appears that some overconfidence remains even after this problem has been remedied. Secondly, it has been proposed that overconfidence is an artefactual regression effect that arises because judgments contain an inherently random component. However, those claiming this appear to use the term overconfidence to refer to a phenomenon quite different from the one that the cognitive psychologists set out to explain. Finally, a debate has arisen about the status of perceptual judgments. Some claim that these evince only underconfidence and must, therefore, depend on mechanisms fundamentally different from those subserving other types of judgment. Others have obtained overconfidence with perceptual judgments and argue that a unitary theory is more appropriate. At present, however, no single theory provides an adequate account of the many diverse factors that influence confidence in judgment.     

Characterizing the evolutionary dynamics of language

In a recent article Mitchener and Nowak present a model of the evolutionary dynamics of language. The model exhibits regular and chaotic oscillations in changes to the proportions of grammars spoken in a population over the course of evolution. These oscillations are within the purview of evolutionary game theory, but they suggest the lack of an evolutionarily stable strategy. Implications for self-organization across scales of adaptation are discussed.