IRT中最小化χ2/EM参数估计方法

对IRT的双参数Logistic模型（2PLM）中未知参数估计问题,给出了一个新的估计方法――最小化χ2/EM估计。新方法在充分考虑项目反应理论(IRT)与经典测量理论(CTT)之间的差异的前提下,从统计计算的角度改进了Berkson的最小化χ2估计,取消了Berkson实施最小化χ2估计时需要已知能力参数的不合实际的前提,扩大了应用范围。实验结果表明新方法能力参数的估计结果与BILOG相比,精确度要高,且当样本容量超过2000时,项目参数的估计结果也优于BILOG。实验还表明新方法稳健性好     

基于双因子模型的测验总分和维度分的合成方法

双因子模型可以同时包含一个全局因子和多个局部因子,在描述多维测验结构时有其独特优势,近些年应用越来越广泛。文章基于双因子模型,提出了4种合成总分和维度分的方法,分别是:原始分法,加和法,全局题目加权加和法和局部题目加权加和法,并采用模拟的方法,在样本量、测验长度、维度间相关变化的条件下考察了这些方法与传统多维IRT方法的表现。最后,通过实证研究对结果进行了验证。结果显示:(1)全局加权加和法和局部加权加和法,尤其是局部加权加和法合成的总分和维度分与真值最接近、信度最高。(2)在维度间相关较高,测验长度较长的条件下,局部加权加和法的结果较好,部分条件下甚至优于多维IRT法。(3)仅有局部加权加和法合成的维度分能够反应维度间真实的相关关系。     

测验理论的新发展:多维项目反应理论

多维项目反应理论是基于因子分析和单维项目反应理论两大背景下发展起来的一种新型测验理论。根据被试在完成一项任务时多种能力之间是如何相互作用的,多维项目反应模型可以分为补偿性模型和非补偿性模型两类。本文在系统介绍了当前普遍使用的补偿性模型的基础上,指出后续研究者应关注多维项目反应理论中多级评分和高维空间的多维模型、补偿性和非补偿性模型的融合、参数估计程序的开发和多维测验等值四个方面的研究。     

测验等值：从IRT到MIRT

等值作为保证测验公平性的技术手段,一直是测验理论研究的重要方面。MIRT理论的发展证明了题目和测验是复杂的,传统的单维模型已经不能满足对人和题目／测验之间关系的探讨需求。目前MIRT等值研究主要有两种取向,其中一种取向是研究多维数据对IRT等值会产生什么样的影响;第二种取向是通过开发新的计算方法和计算工具研究MIRT等值过程。MIRT等值研究最重要的是对等值方法和过程实现的研究,目前已取得一些进展,在进行这些研究的过程中最重要的考虑因素是控制其误差影响因素。     

复杂决策规则下MIRT的分类准确性和分类一致性

介绍多维项目反应理论模型下分类准确性和分类一致性指标, 采用蒙特卡罗方法实现复杂决策规则下指标计算, 并从数学上证明分类准确性指标两类估计量在均匀先验和相同决策规则条件下依概率收敛于同一真值。研究结果表明：分类准确性指标可以比较准确地评价分类结果的准确性; 分类一致性指标可以较好地评价分类结果的重测一致性; 在一定条件下, 基于能力量尺的指标优于基于原始总分的指标; 纵使测验维度增加, 估计精度仍比较好; 随着测验长度和维度间相关增加, 分类准确性和分类一致性更高。指标可以用来评价标准参照测验或计算机分类测验的多种决策规则下分类信度和效度。     

Multidimensional CAT Item Selection Methods for Domain Scores and Composite Scores: Theory and Applications

Multidimensional computer adaptive testing (MCAT) can provide higher precision and reliability or reduce test length when compared with unidimensional CAT or with the paper-and-pencil test. This study compared five item selection procedures in the MCAT framework for both domain scores and overall scores through simulation by varying the structure of item pools, the population distribution of the simulees, the number of items selected, and the content area. The existing procedures such as Volume (Segall in Psychometrika, 61:331?C354, 1996), Kullback?CLeibler information (Veldkamp & van?der Linden in Psychometrika 67:575?C588, 2002), Minimize the error variance of the linear combination (van?der Linden in J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 24:398?C412, 1999), and Minimum Angle (Reckase in Multidimensional item response theory, Springer, New York, 2009) are compared to a new procedure, Minimize the error variance of the composite score with the optimized weight, proposed for the first time in this study. The intent is to find an item selection procedure that yields higher precisions for both the domain and composite abilities and a higher percentage of selected items from the item pool. The comparison is performed by examining the absolute bias, correlation, test reliability, time used, and item usage. Three sets of item pools are used with the item parameters estimated from real live CAT data. Results show that Volume and Minimum Angle performed similarly, balancing information for all content areas, while the other three procedures performed similarly, with a high precision for both domain and overall scores when selecting items with the required number of items for each domain. The new item selection procedure has the highest percentage of item usage. Moreover, for the overall score, it produces similar or even better results compared to those from the method that selects items favoring the general dimension using the general model (Segall in Psychometrika 66:79?C97, 2001); the general dimension method has low precision for the domain scores. In addition to the simulation study, the mathematical theories for certain procedures are derived. The theories are confirmed by the simulation applications.     

Comparison of classical and modern methods for measuring and correcting for acquiescence

Likert-type self-report scales are frequently used in large-scale educational assessment of social-emotional skills. Self-report scales rely on the assumption that their items elicit information only about the trait they are supposed to measure. However, different response biases may threaten this assumption. Specifically, in children, the response style of acquiescence is an important source of systematic error. Balanced scales, including an equal number of positively and negatively keyed items, have been proposed as a solution to control for acquiescence, but the reasons why this design feature worked from the perspective of modern psychometric models have been underexplored. Three methods for controlling for acquiescence are compared: classical method by partialling out the mean; an item response theory method to measure differential person functioning (DPF); and multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) with random intercept. Comparative analyses are conducted on simulated ratings and on self-ratings provided by 40,649 students (aged 11–18) on a fully balanced 30-item scale assessing conscientious self-management. Acquiescence bias was explained as DPF and it was demonstrated that: the acquiescence index is highly related to DPF; balanced scales produce scores controlled for DPF; and MIRT factor scores are highly related to scores controlled for DPF and the random intercept is highly related to DPF.     

多维项目反应理论：参数估计及其在心理测验中的应用

本研究介绍并引进了现代测量理论中的前沿技术—— 多维项目反应理论, 采用MCMC算法实现了其参数估计; 并将MIRT应用于瑞文高级推理测验, 以探讨MIRT在心理测验中的具体应用。研究结果表明：(1)本研究自主编制的MIRT参数估计程序基本可行, 其估计的精度与国外研究结论相当甚至更好。(2)在测验维度和样本容量两因素完全随机实验设计下(2×3), 随着被试和题目样本容量的增加, MIRT参数估计的精度越高且估计的稳定性越强; 但随着测验维度的增加, MIRT参数估计精度和稳定性均随之降低。(3)MIRT对心理测验的分析比UIRT能提供更为精确和细致的信息。它对心理测验的编制、开发及评价具有重要的指导和参考价值, 值得引进及借鉴。     

Paradoxical Results in Multidimensional Item Response Theory

In multidimensional item response theory (MIRT), it is possible for the estimate of a subject’s ability in some dimension to decrease after they have answered a question correctly. This paper investigates how and when this type of paradoxical result can occur. We demonstrate that many response models and statistical estimates can produce paradoxical results and that in the popular class of linearly compensatory models, maximum likelihood estimates are guaranteed to do so. In light of these findings, the appropriateness of multidimensional item response methods for assigning scores in high-stakes testing is called into question.     

不同铆测验设计下多维IRT等值方法的比较

实际应用中测验往往具有多维结构, 如果仍采用单维IRT方法进行等值, 会得到不准确的结果。因此对于多维结构的测验, 需要使用多维IRT等值方法来实现参数的转换。基于共同题设计, 文章通过模拟研究的方法, 考察了不同铆测验设计下几种多维IRT等值方法的表现, 同时考虑了测验长度、两个维度题目数量的比例、铆测验长度、铆测验的选择策略、两个维度之间的相关和等值群体的能力水平差异六个因素的影响。所比较的多维IRT等值方法有：均值/均值(MM)方法, 均值/标准差(MS)方法, Stoking-Lord (SL)方法, Haebara (HB)方法, 最小平方(LS)方法。结果显示：(1) SL, HB和LS方法得到的等值误差均方根最小, 且在各条件下表现较为稳定。(2) MM和MS方法在非等组条件下呈现出很大的误差均方根。(3)铆测验设计对SL, HB和LS方法的等值结果没有显著影响。(4)在两个维度之间的相关较高, 测验长度和铆测验长度较长, 等值群体的能力水平没有差异的条件下, SL, HB和LS方法得到的等值误差均方根最小。     

Prediction of true test scores from observed item scores and ancillary data

In many educational tests which involve constructed responses, a traditional test score is obtained by adding together item scores obtained through holistic scoring by trained human raters. For example, this practice was used until 2008 in the case of GRE^®General Analytical Writing and until 2009 in the case of TOEFL^® iBT Writing. With use of natural language processing, it is possible to obtain additional information concerning item responses from computer programs such as e‐rater^®. In addition, available information relevant to examinee performance may include scores on related tests. We suggest application of standard results from classical test theory to the available data to obtain best linear predictors of true traditional test scores. In performing such analysis, we require estimation of variances and covariances of measurement errors, a task which can be quite difficult in the case of tests with limited numbers of items and with multiple measurements per item. As a consequence, a new estimation method is suggested based on samples of examinees who have taken an assessment more than once. Such samples are typically not random samples of the general population of examinees, so that we apply statistical adjustment methods to obtain the needed estimated variances and covariances of measurement errors. To examine practical implications of the suggested methods of analysis, applications are made to GRE General Analytical Writing and TOEFL iBT Writing. Results obtained indicate that substantial improvements are possible both in terms of reliability of scoring and in terms of assessment reliability.     

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the population distribution. A simulation study shows that the new procedure is feasible in practice, and that when the latent distribution is not well approximated as normal, two-parameter logistic (2PL) item parameter estimates and expected a posteriori scores (EAPs) can be improved over what they would be with the normal model. An example with real data compares the new method and the extant empirical histogram approach.     

Analyzing Longitudinal Item Response Data via the Pairwise Fitting Method

Multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models can be applied to longitudinal educational surveys where a group of individuals are administered different tests over time with some common items. However, computational problems typically arise as the dimension of the latent variables increases. This is especially true when the latent variable distribution cannot be integrated out analytically, as with MIRT models for binary data. In this article, based on the pseudolikelihood theory, we propose a pairwise modeling strategy to estimate item and population parameters in longitudinal studies. Our pairwise method effectively reduces the dimensionality of the problem and hence is applicable to longitudinal IRT data with high-dimensional latent variables, which are challenging for classical methods. And in the low-dimensional case, our simulation study shows that it performs comparably with the classical methods. We further illustrate the implementation of the pairwise method using a development study of mathematics levels of junior high school students in which the response data are collected from 65 classes of 8 schools from 4 different school districts in China.     

Reporting of Subscores Using Multidimensional Item Response Theory

Recently, there has been increasing interest in reporting subscores. This paper examines reporting of subscores using multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) models (e.g., Reckase in Appl. Psychol. Meas. 21:25–36, 1997; C.R. Rao and S. Sinharay (Eds), Handbook of Statistics, vol. 26, pp. 607–642, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 2007; Beguin & Glas in Psychometrika, 66:471–488, 2001). A MIRT model is fitted using a stabilized Newton–Raphson algorithm (Haberman in The Analysis of Frequency Data, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1974; Sociol. Methodol. 18:193–211, 1988) with adaptive Gauss–Hermite quadrature (Haberman, von Davier, & Lee in ETS Research Rep. No. RR-08-45, ETS, Princeton, 2008). A new statistical approach is proposed to assess when subscores using the MIRT model have any added value over (i)  the total score or (ii)  subscores based on classical test theory (Haberman in J. Educ. Behav. Stat. 33:204–229, 2008; Haberman, Sinharay, & Puhan in Br. J. Math. Stat. Psychol. 62:79–95, 2008). The MIRT-based methods are applied to several operational data sets. The results show that the subscores based on MIRT are slightly more accurate than subscore estimates derived by classical test theory.     

项目特征曲线等值的抽样误差

现在,等值越来越受到各考试测验机构及测量学研究人员的重视,特别是项目反应理论等值的优越性更使他们有了信心。然而,很多人却没有注意到被试能力分布形态可能给等值结果带来的影响效果及程度。本研究以项目反应理论两级记分模型的项目参数等值在不同被试能力分布形态下的结果差异作为重点,探讨被试抽样偏差可能给项目特征曲线等值带来的误差问题。研究结果表明,被试能力分布形态会显著地影响项目参数等值的系数,特别地,能力分布的偏态系数与等值方程的截距存在显著的线性相关关系,但能力分布形态的变化对等值方程中斜率的影响并不明显     

IRT与MIRT在测验垂直等值中的应用

测验垂直等值是指将测试同一心理特质的不同水平的测验转换到同一个分数量尺上的过程。IRT与MIRT是实现垂直等值的主要方法。IRT无需假设被试的能力分布, 参数估计不依赖于样本, 是构建垂直量表的有效方法, 但测验不满足单维假设时其应用受到限制。MIRT结合IRT和因素分析的特点对IRT进行了拓展, 可更有效估计多维测验的项目参数和被试能力参数, 在垂直等值中有重要应用。已有研究主要探讨IRT和MIRT在垂直等值应用中的适用性、标定方法和参数估计方法, 比较研究两种方法的特性。未来研究应纳入更多变量条件进行比较研究, 拓展方法的应用。     

MIRT模型中多维能力及其相关矩阵估计的影响因素

多维项目反应理论因其模型本身的天然优势及其兼具因素分析与项目反应理论于一身的优点,而被广大研究者及应用者所重视.本研究在前人研究基础上,重点讨论MIRT多维能力及能力间相关矩阵的参数估计问题.研究采用Monte Carlo模拟方法进行,在三因素完全随机设计（4 ×3×3）下,使用MCMC算法,探讨测验维度数、维度间的相关大小和测验项目数三个因素对MIRT能力及其相关矩阵估计的影响.     

Latent variables should remain as such: Evidence from a Monte Carlo study

Use of subject scores as manifest variables to assess the relationship between latent variables produces attenuated estimates. This has been demonstrated for raw scores from classical test theory (CTT) and factor scores derived from factor analysis. Conclusions on scores have not been sufficiently extended to item response theory (IRT) theta estimates, which are still recommended for estimation of relationships between latent variables. This is because IRT estimates appear to have preferable properties compared to CTT, while structural equation modeling (SEM) is often advised as an alternative to scores for estimation of the relationship between latent variables. The present research evaluates the consequences of using subject scores as manifest variables in regression models to test the relationship between latent variables. Raw scores and three methods for obtaining theta estimates were used and compared to latent variable SEM modeling. A Monte Carlo study was designed by manipulating sample size, number of items, type of test, and magnitude of the correlation between latent variables. Results show that, despite the advantage of IRT models in other areas, estimates of the relationship between latent variables are always more accurate when SEM models are used. Recommendations are offered for applied researchers.     

多维项目反应理论等级反应模型

基于因子分析和单维项目反应理论的多维项目反应理论是测量理论的新发展方向之一。但是, 多维项目反应理论仍处于不成熟的发展阶段, 多数研究也只是以二级评分为主。本文首先介绍了逻辑斯蒂形式的多维等级反应模型, 并以二维等级反应模型为例, 分析了模型的数学函数图像及其性质。然后, 推导出了多维等级反应模型的项目信息函数, 并结合实例进行了讨论。进一步地, 本文阐述了使用联合极大似然估计和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法估计多维等级反应模型参数的思想。最后, 指出了一些有待研究的问题。