The Perceived Influence of AIDS Advertising: Third-Person Effects in the Context of Positive Media Content

Although there is consistent evidence indicating that people perceive themselves to be less influenced than others by negative media content and persuasive communications with negative intent (viz., a third-person effect), much less is known about the perceived impact of positive media content and public service advertisements. This study investigated the perceived impact of 11 AIDS advertisements promoting a common message for safe sex, in an attempt to clarify the conditions in which people might judge themselves as more, rather than less, influenced than others. Results indicated that student respondents perceived themselves as less vulnerable than others to low-quality AIDS advertisements, but as more influenced than others by high-quality AIDS advertisements. Respondents who believed strongly that it is good to be influenced by AIDS campaigns saw themselves as relatively vulnerable to such messages, whereas other respondents did not distinguish between the level of impact on self and other. Results are consistent with motivational accounts that emphasize the ego-enhancing function of social comparisons.     

Third_Person Perception of Television Violence: The Role of Self_Perceived Knowledge

This study investigated the proposition that self-perceived knowledge or self-expertise is a primary theoretical construct in understanding third-person perception of television violence effects. Consistent with most past research, the findings confirm people's third-person tendencies to attribute greater media effects of television violence on other people than on themselves. As hypothesized, self-perceived knowledge was a stronger predictor of third-person perception than sociodemographic variables (demographics, ideology, and media use). The study also found that self-perceived knowledge was more likely to moderate than mediate the relationship between sociodemographic variables and third-person perception. Whereas a moderator affects the strength of the relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable, a mediator explains the relationship between the two variables. In sum, the findings indicate that respondents' judgments of their superior self-perceived knowledge of television violence might be of theoretical significance in third-person effect research.     

Framing the Lewinsky Affair: Third-Person Judgments by Scandal Frame

Recent studies have documented a “third-person effect” whereby people are found to judge others as more influenced than themselves by the mass media. Meanwhile, contemporary research on issue framing has demonstrated the powerful role of mass media in shaping people's political judgments. But are the perceptual judgments that define third-person effects sensitive to how the media frame an issue? Two studies investigated this question in the context of the Lewinsky-Clinton scandal, one in late August 1998 and the other during spring 1999. Several hundred undergraduates in each study were randomly assigned to one of two media frames. In the 1998 study, the political scandal was depicted as a matter of sexual indiscretion by the president or as legal wrongdoing; in the 1999 study, the recently concluded impeachment process was depicted as the consequence of partisanship or of Clinton's actions. The participants’ judgments of media influence on themselves and on the public were then recorded. The results show that third-person effects were sensitive to issue framing, but change occurred primarily in participants’ judgments about their own vulnerability to media influence.     

大学生对一般生活事件和意外事故的乐观和悲观偏差估计：直接和间接测量的比较

研究考查了大学生对一般生活事件和意外事故的乐观与悲观偏差,并检验不同测量方法是否会产生不同结果。通过对273名大学生进行问卷研究,结果发现：（1）在直接和间接测量时,被试对一般消极事件、意外事故存在乐观偏差,对幸免于意外事故存在悲观偏差;但对一般积极事件,被试在直接测量时出现乐观偏差,在间接测量时为悲观偏差。（2）在两种方法中,被试对意外事故的乐观偏差皆高于一般消极事件,但一般积极事件与幸免于意外事故的结果在直接测量时有显著差异,而在间接测量中差异不显著。（3）在直接测量时,消极事件的发生频率越低乐观偏差越严重,积极事件的发生频率越低则悲观偏差越严重;在间接测量中事件频率与偏差结果相关不显著。     

Unrealistic optimism about future life events: a cautionary note

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are "unrealistically optimistic" in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate how unbiased responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism for purely statistical reasons. Specifically, we show how extant data from unrealistic optimism studies investigating people's comparative risk judgments are plagued by the statistical consequences of sampling constraints and the response scales used, in combination with the comparative rarity of truly negative events. We conclude that the presence of such statistical artifacts raises questions over the very existence of an optimistic bias about risk and implies that to the extent that such a bias exists, we know considerably less about its magnitude, mechanisms, and moderators than previously assumed.     

Media Exposure,Perceived Personal Impact,and Third-Person Effect

This article examines the influence of perceived personal impact on third-person perception and on protective behaviors in connection with exposure to media coverage of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic. Survey results show that the perceived personal impact of the disease spreading in the local community positively predicts perceived media effects on self and others. However, its impact on self-evaluation of media effect is more salient and, thus, negatively influences third-person perception. In terms of corresponding behaviors, people's concerns for their own safety rather than for others' predict the intention to take protective measures. The greater the third-person perception, the less likely that people will take protective actions.     

Perceived Control and the Optimistic Bias: A Meta-Analytic Review

People consistently believe that negative events are less likely to happen to them than to others. Research suggests a relationship between this optimistic bias and perceived control such that the greater control people perceive over future events, the greater their optimistic bias. We conducted a meta-analysis of 27 independent samples to quantify the size of this relationship and examine what variables moderated the relationship. Greater perceived control was significantly related to greater optimistic bias, but this relationship was moderated by participant nationality, student status, risk status, and the type of optimistic bias measure used. We discuss the findings in the context of primary versus secondary control.     

乐观偏差的内隐效应

乐观偏差是一个普遍存在的现象。采用Greenwald的内隐联想测验测验（IAT）方法和Inquisit专业软件,以60名大学生为被试对乐观偏差进行了考察。结果发现：乐观偏差存在内隐效应;乐观偏差的内隐效应在性别上没有差异。     

Me,us and them: Political identification and the third-person effect in the 1993 Australian federal election

Three days prior to the 1993 Australian federal election 54 Australian university students who identified with one of the two major political parties were surveyed regarding their perceptions of media campaign impact on self and others. Results provided evidence of a third-person effect (Davison, 1983) wherein respondents judged others us more influenced by the election campaign than themselves. Consistent with predictions derived from social identity theory and self-categorization theory (e.g. Turner, Hogg, Oakes, Reicher and Wetherell, 1987), political ingroup members were also judged as less injuenced by campaign content than political outgroup members. Respondents who identified strongly with their preferred party judged self and ingroup members as less influenced by campaign content than did other respondents, and showed more evidence of positive intergroup differentiation. At the same time, however, these respondents exaggerated self–ingroup differences, challenging the theoretical assumption that intergroup diferentiation is associated with ingroup assimilation. Judgements of media impact on self and other also depended on the direction of the campaign message. Respondents believed ‘voters in general’ were persuaded in line with the intent of campaign content, while outgroup members were seen to be persuaded by material favouring their own side but to be uninfluenced by counter-attitudinal content. Election propaganda, irrespective of direction, was seen to amplify existing party preferences in self and ingroup members. Hence the relative invulnerability of self to media impact was pronounced when respondents judged the impact of pro-outgroup messages. Results suggest that perceptions of self–other differences in media vulnerability are influenced by the subjectively salient social relationship between self and other, and are governed by motivational needs, such as self-esteem, social-identity, and differentiation from others (cf. Brewer, 1991; Hogs and Abrams, 1993).     

Automatic optimism: Biased use of base rate information for positive and negative events

People generally judge that positive events will occur in their lives and negative events will not, even when both events have the same objective likelihood to occur. In four studies, we examined the possibility that this optimistic bias is the result of people’s automatic affective reactions to future events. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate, in two different contexts, that people are consistently optimistic in their predictions, despite identical base rates for positive and negative events. In Study 2, optimistic bias was not influenced by incentives for motivated reasoning or rewards for accuracy, suggesting that bias was the result of automatic processes. Studies 3 and 4 showed that optimistic bias was more pronounced when predictions were speeded and when participants made predictions after exposure to affectively valenced words. Together, these findings suggest that people optimistically interpret base rates and that this optimism is due to an effortless affective process.     

Perceived Event Frequency and the Optimistic Bias: Evidence for a Two-Process Model of Personal Risk Judgments

People often judge themselves to be at lower risk for various negative life events than are their peers. The two empirical studies presented here show that the magnitude of this optimistic bias can be either negatively or positively related to the perceived frequency of the event, depending on whether people judge their own risk relative to that of an average peer (make comparative risk judgments) or judge their own and an average peer's risk separately (make absolute risk judgments). A new two-process model is presented to account for these results. The model combines a better-than-average heuristic with elements of the singular target-focused and singular- distributional models of Klar and colleagues (Klar & Giladi, 1997, 1999; Klar, Medding, & Sarel, 1996). The empirical results and model have many implications for the study of personal risk judgments, the optimistic bias, and risk-taking behavior.     

Sometimes inclusion breeds suspicion: Self‐uncertainty and belongingness predict belief in conspiracy theories

In the present contribution, the author investigated the idea that messages communicating inclusion by others lead to stronger conspiracy beliefs about impactful societal events than messages communicating exclusion by others. These effects of belongingness, however, were expected only among people who experience high levels of self‐uncertainty. In Study 1, a manipulation of belongingness predicted belief in conspiracy theories only among people with unstable self‐esteem (an individual difference indicator of self‐uncertainty), while controlling for self‐esteem level. In Study 2, a manipulation of belongingness influenced belief in conspiracy theories only among participants who were experimentally induced to feel uncertain about themselves. It is concluded that among self‐uncertain people, inclusion breeds suspicion about the causes of impactful and harmful societal events.     

Social Identity and Perceptions of Media Persuasion: Are We Always Less Influenced Than Others?1

People typically perceive negative media content (e.g., violence) to have more impact on others than on themselves (a third-person effect). To examine the perceived effects of positive content (e.g., public-service advertisements) and the moderating role of social identities, we examined students' perceptions of the impact of AIDS advertisements on self, students (in-group), nonstudents (out-group), and people in general. Perceived self-other differences varied with the salience of student identity. Low identifiers displayed the typical third-person effect, whereas high identifiers were more willing to acknowledge impact on themselves and the student in-group. Further, when influence was normatively acceptable within the in-group, high identifiers perceived self and students (us) as more influenced than nonstudents (them). The theoretical and practical implications of this reversal in third-person perceptions are discussed.     

Examining the effectiveness of physical threats in road safety advertising: The role of the third-person effect,gender, and age

Threatening advertisements have been widely used in the social marketing of road safety. However, despite their popularity and over five decades of research into the fear-persuasion relationship, an unequivocal answer regarding their effectiveness remains unachieved. More contemporary “fear appeal” research has explored the extent other variables moderate this relationship. In this study, the third-person effect was examined to explore its association with the extent male and female drivers reported intentions to adopt the recommendations of two road safety advertisements depicting high physical threats. Drivers (N = 152) first provided responses on pre-exposure future driving intentions, subsequently viewed two advertisements, one anti-speeding and one anti-drink driving, followed by measurement of their perceptions and post-manipulation intentions. The latter measure, post-manipulation intentions, was taken as the level of message acceptance for each advertisement. Results indicated a significant gender difference with females reporting reverse third-person effects (i.e., the messages would have more influence on themselves than others) and males reporting classic third-person effects (i.e., the messages would have more influence on others than themselves). Consistent with such third-person effects, females reported greater intention not to speed and not to drink and drive after being exposed to the advertisements than males. To determine the extent that third-person differential perceptions contributed to explaining variance in post-manipulation intentions, hierarchical regressions were conducted. These regressions revealed that third-person scores significantly contributed to the variance explained in post-manipulation intentions, beyond the contribution of other factors including demographic characteristics, pre-exposure intentions and past behaviour. The theoretical and applied implications of the results are discussed.     

解释水平视角下的乐观偏差效应

研究基于解释水平理论,考查心理距离对乐观偏差效应的影响。实验从心理距离的事件概率维度、时间距离维度、空间距离维度入手,采用自编的材料对677名被试进行测量,探讨心理距离的远近对乐观偏差产生的影响。结果表明,被试对未来生活事件的判断存在总体上的乐观偏差。在较远的心理距离条件下,被试表现出更大的乐观偏差;而在较近的心理距离中,乐观偏差效应明显减小。但在时间距离维度以及消极事件的概率维度上,表现出与总体乐观偏差不一致的现象。     

Enlisting the Influence of Others: Alternative Strategies for Persuasive Media Campaigns

This study investigated an Australian antidrug campaign that targeted adolescents directly and indirectly via recruiting parents into drug prevention. Eighty-six parent–child dyads completed surveys measuring campaign evaluations, discussions about drugs, and beliefs about risks to self (own child) and to the average young Australian. Adolescents were optimistic about risks, and media impact was evident only in perceptions of risk to others. Parents were less optimistic, and perceptions of campaign quality predicted perceived risk to own child and discussion about drugs. However, this was moderated by negative affect associated with the campaign. There was some evidence that discussions influenced adolescents' perceptions of personal risk. This demonstrates the importance of individual responses and communication processes in determining the impact of persuasive media messages.     

Error and bias in comparative judgment: on being both better and worse than we think we are

People believe that they are better than others on easy tasks and worse than others on difficult tasks. In previous attempts to explain these better-than-average and worse-than-average effects, researchers have invoked bias and motivation as causes. In this article, the authors develop a more parsimonious account, the differential information explanation, in which it is assumed only that people typically have better information about themselves than they do about others. When one's own performance is exceptional (either good or bad), it is often reasonable to assume others' will be less so. Consequently, people estimate the performance of others as less extreme (more regressive) than their own. The result is that people believe they are above average on easy tasks and below average on difficult tasks. These effects are exacerbated when people have accurate information about their performances, increasing the natural discrepancy between knowledge of the self and knowledge of others. The effects are attenuated when people obtain accurate information about the performances of others.     

乐观偏差研究概况

乐观偏差指个体倾向于认为自己更可能经历积极事件而他人更可能遭遇消极事件的现象。对乐观偏差的测量主要有直接比较和间接比较两种方式。事件特征和个体因素是乐观偏差的主要影响因素。产生乐观偏差的心理机制主要有自我中心主义和聚焦主义。乐观偏差对个体既有积极作用也有消极影响。未来研究主要包括:开发科学可行的测量工具;加强对个体水平乐观偏差的研究;把乐观偏差和悲观偏差结合起来进行研究;对乐观偏差进行认知神经心理机制的探讨。     

Perspectives on prediction: Does third-person imagery improve task completion estimates?

People typically underestimate the time necessary to complete their tasks. According to the planning fallacy model of optimistic time predictions, this underestimation occurs because people focus on developing a specific plan for the current task and neglect the implications of past failures to meet similar deadlines. We extend the classic planning fallacy model by proposing that a phenomenal quality of mental imagery – the visual perspective that is adopted – may moderate the optimistic prediction bias. Consistent with this proposal, participants in four studies predicted longer completion times, and thus were less prone to bias, when they imagined an upcoming task from the third-person rather than first-person perspective. Third-person imagery reduced people’s focus on optimistic plans, increased their focus on potential obstacles, and decreased the impact of task-relevant motives on prediction. The findings suggest that third-person imagery helps individuals generate more realistic predictions by reducing cognitive and motivational processes that typically contribute to bias.     

The Third Person Effect: A Critical Review and Synthesis

This paper reviews research on the third-person effect--the perception that communications exert a stronger effect on others than on oneself It is concluded that the third-person effect is a reliable and persistent phenomenon that emerges across variations in question order, format, and wording. The effect is also more situationally specific than originally believed, as illustrated by evidence of first-person effects in response to socially desirable messages. Self-enhancement biases, although not the only processes that underlie the effect, provide a parsimonious explanation of message-desirability recruits. Other delimiting conditions such as social distance are critically reviewed, evidence for behavioral effects is discussed, and methodological shortcomings are noted. Six directions for research are articulated.