纵向数据的调节效应分析

目前调节效应检验主要是基于截面数据, 本文讨论纵向(追踪)数据的调节效应分析。如果自变量X和因变量Y有纵向数据, 调节效应可分为三类：调节变量Z不随时间变化、Z随时间变化、调节变量从自变量或因变量中产生。评介了基于多层模型、多层结构方程模型、交叉滞后模型和潜变量增长模型的纵向数据的多种调节效应分析方法。调节效应的分解和潜调节结构方程法的使用是纵向数据的调节效应分析的两大特点。对基于四类模型的调节效应分析方法进行综合比较后, 总结出一个纵向数据的调节效应分析流程。随后用实际例子演示如何进行纵向数据的调节效应分析, 并给出相应的Mplus程序。随后展望了纵向数据的调节效应分析的拓展方向, 例如基于动态结构方程模型的密集追踪数据的调节效应分析。     

Idiographic network analysis of discrete mood states prior to treatment

Idiographic network models based on time‐series data have received recent attention for their ability to model relationships among symptoms and behaviours as they unfold in time within a single individual (cf. Epskamp, Borsboom, & Fried, 2018; Fisher, Medaglia, & Jeronimus, 2018). Rather than examine the correlational relationships between variables in a sample of individuals, an idiographic network examines correlations within a single person, averaged over many time points. Because the approach averages over time, the data must be stationary (i.e. relatively consistent over time). If individuals experience varying states over time—different mixtures of symptoms and behaviours in one moment or another—then averaging over categorically different moments may undermine model accuracy. Fisher and Bosley (2019) address these concerns via the application of Gaussian finite mixture modelling to identify latent classes of time points in intraindividual time‐series data from a sample of adults with major depressive disorder and/or generalised anxiety disorder (n = 45). The present paper outlines an extension of this work, wherein network analysis is used to model within‐class covariation of symptoms. To illustrate this approach, network models were constructed for each intraindividual class identified by Fisher and Bosley (137 networks across the 45 participants, mean classes/person = ~3, range = 2–4 classes/person). We examine the relative consistency in symptom organisation between each individual's multiple mood state networks and assess emergent group‐level patterns. We highlight opportunities for enhanced treatment personalisation and review nomothetic patterns relevant to transdiagnostic conceptualisations of psychopathology. We address opportunities for integrating this approach into clinical practice and outline potential shortcomings.     

A one-step method for modelling longitudinal data with differential equations

Differential equation models are frequently used to describe non-linear trajectories of longitudinal data. This study proposes a new approach to estimate the parameters in differential equation models. Instead of estimating derivatives from the observed data first and then fitting a differential equation to the derivatives, our new approach directly fits the analytic solution of a differential equation to the observed data, and therefore simplifies the procedure and avoids bias from derivative estimations. A simulation study indicates that the analytic solutions of differential equations (ASDE) approach obtains unbiased estimates of parameters and their standard errors. Compared with other approaches that estimate derivatives first, ASDE has smaller standard error, larger statistical power and accurate Type I error. Although ASDE obtains biased estimation when the system has sudden phase change, the bias is not serious and a solution is also provided to solve the phase problem. The ASDE method is illustrated and applied to a two-week study on consumers’ shopping behaviour after a sale promotion, and to a set of public data tracking participants’ grammatical facial expression in sign language. R codes for ASDE, recommendations for sample size and starting values are provided. Limitations and several possible expansions of ASDE are also discussed.     

Dyadic longitudinal models: A critical review

In this review, we discuss the most commonly used models to analyze dyadic longitudinal data. We start the review with a definition of dyadic longitudinal data that allows relationship researchers to identify when these models might be appropriate. Then, we go on to describe the three major models commonly used when one has dyadic longitudinal data: the dyadic growth curve model (DGCM), the actor–partner interdependence model (APIM), and the common fate growth model (CFGM). We discuss when each model might be used and strengths and weaknesses of each model. We end with additional thoughts that focus on extensions to new methods being discussed in the literature, along with some of the challenges of collecting and analyzing dyadic longitudinal data that might be helpful for future dyadic researchers.     

A latent topic model with Markov transition for process data

We propose a latent topic model with a Markov transition for process data, which consists of time-stamped events recorded in a log file. Such data are becoming more widely available in computer-based educational assessment with complex problem-solving items. The proposed model can be viewed as an extension of the hierarchical Bayesian topic model with a hidden Markov structure to accommodate the underlying evolution of an examinee's latent state. Using topic transition probabilities along with response times enables us to capture examinees' learning trajectories, making clustering/classification more efficient. A forward-backward variational expectation-maximization (FB-VEM) algorithm is developed to tackle the challenging computational problem. Useful theoretical properties are established under certain asymptotic regimes. The proposed method is applied to a complex problem-solving item in the 2012 version of the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA).     

At the Frontiers of Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data: Dynamic Structural Equation Models for the Affective Measurements from the COGITO Study

With the growing popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques and software options for such data are also expanding rapidly. Here we use dynamic multilevel modeling, as it is incorporated in the new dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) toolbox in Mplus, to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of two samples of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We use composite scores of positive and negative affect and apply a multilevel vector autoregressive model to allow for individual differences in means, autoregressions, and cross-lagged effects. Then we extend the model to include random residual variances and covariance, and finally we investigate whether prior depression affects later depression scores through the random effects of the daily diary measures. We end with discussing several urgent—but mostly unresolved—issues in the area of dynamic multilevel modeling.     

On structural models for analyzing change

The recommendation to base the analysis of multi-wave data upon explicit models for change is advocated. Several univariate and multivariate models are described, which emerge from an interaction between the classical test theory and the structural equation modeling approach. The resulting structural models for analyzing change reflect in some of their parameters substantively interesting aspects of intra- and interindividual change in follow-up studies. The models are viewed as an alternative to an ANOVA-based analysis of longitudinal data, and are illustrated on data from a cognitive intervention study of old adults (Bakes et al , 1986). The approach presents a useful means of analyzing change over time, and is applicable for purposes of (latent) growth curve analysis when analysis of variance assumptions are violated (e.g., Schaie & Hertzog, 1982; Morrison, 1976).