Generalized Structured Component Analysis with Latent Interactions

Generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) is a component-based approach to structural equation modeling. In practice, researchers may often be interested in examining the interaction effects of latent variables. However, GSCA has been geared only for the specification and testing of the main effects of variables. Thus, an extension of GSCA is proposed to effectively deal with various types of interactions among latent variables. In the proposed method, a latent interaction is defined as a product of interacting latent variables. As a result, this method does not require the construction of additional indicators for latent interactions. Moreover, it can easily accommodate both exogenous and endogenous latent interactions. An alternating least-squares algorithm is developed to minimize a single optimization criterion for parameter estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to investigate the parameter recovery capability of the proposed method. An application is also presented to demonstrate the empirical usefulness of the proposed method.     

Generalized latent trait models

In this paper we discuss a general model framework within which manifest variables with different distributions in the exponential family can be analyzed with a latent trait model. A unified maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the generalized latent trait model will be presented. We discuss in addition the scoring of individuals on the latent dimensions. The general framework presented allows, not only the analysis of manifest variables all of one type but also the simultaneous analysis of a collection of variables with different distributions. The approach used analyzes the data as they are by making assumptions about the distribution of the manifest variables directly.     

A Bayesian approach to nonlinear latent variable models using the Gibbs sampler and the metropolis-hastings algorithm

Nonlinear latent variable models are specified that include quadratic forms and interactions of latent regressor variables as special cases. To estimate the parameters, the models are put in a Bayesian framework with conjugate priors for the parameters. The posterior distributions of the parameters and the latent variables are estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods such as the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The proposed estimation methods are illustrated by two simulation studies and by the estimation of a non-linear model for the dependence of performance on task complexity and goal specificity using empirical data.     

Dynamic GSCA (Generalized Structured Component Analysis) with Applications to the Analysis of Effective Connectivity in Functional Neuroimaging Data

We propose a new method of structural equation modeling (SEM) for longitudinal and time series data, named Dynamic GSCA (Generalized Structured Component Analysis). The proposed method extends the original GSCA by incorporating a multivariate autoregressive model to account for the dynamic nature of data taken over time. Dynamic GSCA also incorporates direct and modulating effects of input variables on specific latent variables and on connections between latent variables, respectively. An alternating least square (ALS) algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. An improved bootstrap method called a modified moving block bootstrap method is used to assess reliability of parameter estimates, which deals with time dependence between consecutive observations effectively. We analyze synthetic and real data to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.     

Bayesian PTSD-Trajectory Analysis with Informed Priors Based on a Systematic Literature Search and Expert Elicitation

There is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. However, little effort has been made thus far to directly incorporate background knowledge via the prior distribution into the analyses. This process might be especially useful in the context of latent growth mixture modeling when one or more of the latent groups are expected to be relatively small due to what we refer to as limited data. We argue that the use of Bayesian statistics has great advantages in limited data situations, but only if background knowledge can be incorporated into the analysis via prior distributions. We highlight these advantages through a data set including patients with burn injuries and analyze trajectories of posttraumatic stress symptoms using the Bayesian framework following the steps of the WAMBS-checklist. In the included example, we illustrate how to obtain background information using previous literature based on a systematic literature search and by using expert knowledge. Finally, we show how to translate this knowledge into prior distributions and we illustrate the importance of conducting a prior sensitivity analysis. Although our example is from the trauma field, the techniques we illustrate can be applied to any field.     

Multilevel Dynamic Generalized Structured Component Analysis for Brain Connectivity Analysis in Functional Neuroimaging Data

We extend dynamic generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) to enhance its data-analytic capability in structural equation modeling of multi-subject time series data. Time series data of multiple subjects are typically hierarchically structured, where time points are nested within subjects who are in turn nested within a group. The proposed approach, named multilevel dynamic GSCA, accommodates the nested structure in time series data. Explicitly taking the nested structure into account, the proposed method allows investigating subject-wise variability of the loadings and path coefficients by looking at the variance estimates of the corresponding random effects, as well as fixed loadings between observed and latent variables and fixed path coefficients between latent variables. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by applying the method to the multi-subject functional neuroimaging data for brain connectivity analysis, where time series data-level measurements are nested within subjects.     

Bayesian estimation of a multilevel IRT model using gibbs sampling

In this article, a two-level regression model is imposed on the ability parameters in an item response theory (IRT) model. The advantage of using latent rather than observed scores as dependent variables of a multilevel model is that it offers the possibility of separating the influence of item difficulty and ability level and modeling response variation and measurement error. Another advantage is that, contrary to observed scores, latent scores are test-independent, which offers the possibility of using results from different tests in one analysis where the parameters of the IRT model and the multilevel model can be concurrently estimated. The two-parameter normal ogive model is used for the IRT measurement model. It will be shown that the parameters of the two-parameter normal ogive model and the multilevel model can be estimated in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling. Examples using simulated and real data are given.     

A Bayesian analysis of finite mixtures in the LISREL model

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework for estimating finite mixtures of the LISREL model. The basic idea in our analysis is to augment the observed data of the manifest variables with the latent variables and the allocation variables. The Gibbs sampler is implemented to obtain the Bayesian solution. Other associated statistical inferences, such as the direct estimation of the latent variables, establishment of a goodness-of-fit assessment for a posited model, Bayesian classification, residual and outlier analyses, are discussed. The methodology is illustrated with a simulation study and a real example.This research was supported by a Hong Kong UGC Earmarked grant CUHK 4026/97H. The authors are indebted to the Editor, the Associate Editor, and three anonymous reviewers for constructive comments in improving the paper, and also to ICPSR and the relevant funding agency for allowing the use of the data. The assistance of Michael K.H. Leung and Esther L.S. Tam is gratefully acknowledged.     

Bayesian Inference for Growth Mixture Models with Latent Class Dependent Missing Data

Growth mixture models (GMMs) with nonignorable missing data have drawn increasing attention in research communities but have not been fully studied. The goal of this article is to propose and to evaluate a Bayesian method to estimate the GMMs with latent class dependent missing data. An extended GMM is first presented in which class probabilities depend on some observed explanatory variables and data missingness depends on both the explanatory variables and a latent class variable. A full Bayesian method is then proposed to estimate the model. Through the data augmentation method, conditional posterior distributions for all model parameters and missing data are obtained. A Gibbs sampling procedure is then used to generate Markov chains of model parameters for statistical inference. The application of the model and the method is first demonstrated through the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, 1997). A simulation study considering 3 main factors (the sample size, the class probability, and the missing data mechanism) is then conducted and the results show that the proposed Bayesian estimation approach performs very well under the studied conditions. Finally, some implications of this study, including the misspecified missingness mechanism, the sample size, the sensitivity of the model, the number of latent classes, the model comparison, and the future directions of the approach, are discussed.     

Bayesian analysis of structural equation models with mixed exponential family and ordered categorical data

Structural equation models are very popular for studying relationships among observed and latent variables. However, the existing theory and computer packages are developed mainly under the assumption of normality, and hence cannot be satisfactorily applied to non‐normal and ordered categorical data that are common in behavioural, social and psychological research. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to the analysis of structural equation models in which the manifest variables are ordered categorical and/or from an exponential family. In this framework, models with a mixture of binomial, ordered categorical and normal variables can be analysed. Bayesian estimates of the unknown parameters are obtained by a computational procedure that combines the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Some goodness‐of‐fit statistics are proposed to evaluate the fit of the posited model. The methodology is illustrated by results obtained from a simulation study and analysis of a real data set about non‐adherence of hypertension patients in a medical treatment scheme.     

Regularized Generalized Structured Component Analysis

Generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) has been proposed as a component-based approach to structural equation modeling. In practice, GSCA may suffer from multi-collinearity, i.e., high correlations among exogenous variables. GSCA has yet no remedy for this problem. Thus, a regularized extension of GSCA is proposed that integrates a ridge type of regularization into GSCA in a unified framework, thereby enabling to handle multi-collinearity problems effectively. An alternating regularized least squares algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed method as compared to its non-regularized counterpart. An application is also presented to demonstrate the empirical usefulness of the proposed method.     

Semiparametric Thurstonian Models for Recurrent Choices: A Bayesian Analysis

We develop semiparametric Bayesian Thurstonian models for analyzing repeated choice decisions involving multinomial, multivariate binary or multivariate ordinal data. Our modeling framework has multiple components that together yield considerable flexibility in modeling preference utilities, cross-sectional heterogeneity and parameter-driven dynamics. Each component of our model is specified semiparametrically using Dirichlet process (DP) priors. The utility (latent variable) component of our model allows the alternative-specific utility errors to semiparametrically deviate from a normal distribution. This generates a robust alternative to popular Thurstonian specifications that are based on underlying normally distributed latent variables. Our second component focuses on flexibly modeling cross-sectional heterogeneity. The semiparametric specification allows the heterogeneity distribution to mimic either a finite mixture distribution or a continuous distribution such as the normal, whichever is supported by the data. Thus, special features such as multimodality can be readily incorporated without the need to overtly search for the best heterogeneity specification across a series of models. Finally, we allow for parameter-driven dynamics using a semiparametric state-space approach. This specification adds to the literature on robust Kalman filters. The resulting framework is very general and integrates divergent strands of the literatures on flexible choice models, Bayesian nonparametrics and robust time series specifications. Given this generality, we show how several existing Thurstonian models can be obtained as special forms of our model. We describe Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for the inference of model parameters, report results from two simulation studies and apply the model to consumer choice data from a frequently purchased product category. The results from our simulations and application highlight the benefits of using our semiparametric approach.     

Factor analysis with (mixed) observed and latent variables in the exponential family

We develop a general approach to factor analysis that involves observed and latent variables that are assumed to be distributed in the exponential family. This gives rise to a number of factor models not considered previously and enables the study of latent variables in an integrated methodological framework, rather than as a collection of seemingly unrelated special cases. The framework accommodates a great variety of different measurement scales and accommodates cases where different latent variables have different distributions. The models are estimated with the method of simulated likelihood, which allows for higher dimensional factor solutions to be estimated than heretofore. The models are illustrated on synthetic data. We investigate their performance when the distribution of the latent variables is mis-specified and when part of the observations are missing. We study the properties of the simulation estimators relative to maximum likelihood estimation with numerical integration. We provide an empirical application to the analysis of attitudes.     

Bayesian modeling of measurement error in predictor variables using item response theory

It is shown that measurement error in predictor variables can be modeled using item response theory (IRT). The predictor variables, that may be defined at any level of an hierarchical regression model, are treated as latent variables. The normal ogive model is used to describe the relation between the latent variables and dichotomous observed variables, which may be responses to tests or questionnaires. It will be shown that the multilevel model with measurement error in the observed predictor variables can be estimated in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling. In this article, handling measurement error via the normal ogive model is compared with alternative approaches using the classical true score model. Examples using real data are given.This paper is part of the dissertation by Fox (2001) that won the 2002 Psychometric Society Dissertation Award.     

Dynamic analysis of multivariate panel data with non-linear transformations

Many models for multivariate data analysis can be seen as special cases of the linear dynamic or state space model. Contrary to the classical approach to linear dynamic systems analysis, in which high-dimensional exact solutions are sought, the model presented here is developed from a social science framework where low-dimensional approximate solutions are preferred. Borrowing concepts from the theory on mixture distributions, the linear dynamic model can be viewed as a multi-layered regression model, in which the output variables are imprecise manifestations of an unobserved continuous process. An additional layer of mixing makes it possible to incorporate non-normal as well as ordinal variables.Using the EM-algorithm, we find estimates of the unknown model parameters, simultaneously providing stability estimates. The model is very general and cannot be well estimated by other estimation methods. We illustrate the applicability of the obtained procedure through an example with generated data.     

Multilevel IRT using dichotomous and polytomous response data

A structural multilevel model is presented where some of the variables cannot be observed directly but are measured using tests or questionnaires. Observed dichotomous or ordinal polytomous response data serve to measure the latent variables using an item response theory model. The latent variables can be defined at any level of the multilevel model. A Bayesian procedure Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to estimate all parameters simultaneously is presented. It is shown that certain model checks and model comparisons can be done using the MCMC output. The techniques are illustrated using a simulation study and an application involving students' achievements on a mathematics test and test results regarding management characteristics of teachers and principles.     

A hierarchical state space approach to affective dynamics

Linear dynamical system theory is a broad theoretical framework that has been applied in various research areas such as engineering, econometrics and recently in psychology. It quantifies the relations between observed inputs and outputs that are connected through a set of latent state variables. State space models are used to investigate the dynamical properties of these latent quantities. These models are especially of interest in the study of emotion dynamics, with the system representing the evolving emotion components of an individual. However, for simultaneous modeling of individual and population differences, a hierarchical extension of the basic state space model is necessary. Therefore, we introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model with random effects for the system parameters. Further, we apply our model to data that were collected using the Oregon adolescent interaction task: 66 normal and 67 depressed adolescents engaged in a conflict-oriented interaction with their parents and second-to-second physiological and behavioral measures were obtained. System parameters in normal and depressed adolescents were compared, which led to interesting discussions in the light of findings in recent literature on the links between cardiovascular processes, emotion dynamics and depression. We illustrate that our approach is flexible and general: The model can be applied to any time series for multiple systems (where a system can represent any entity) and moreover, one is free to focus on various components of this versatile model.     

Stochastic EM for estimating the parameters of a multilevel IRT model

An item response theory (IRT) model is used as a measurement error model for the dependent variable of a multilevel model. The dependent variable is latent but can be measured indirectly by using tests or questionnaires. The advantage of using latent scores as dependent variables of a multilevel model is that it offers the possibility of modelling response variation and measurement error and separating the influence of item difficulty and ability level. The two‐parameter normal ogive model is used for the IRT model. It is shown that the stochastic EM algorithm can be used to estimate the parameters which are close to the maximum likelihood estimates. This algorithm is easily implemented. The estimation procedure will be compared to an implementation of the Gibbs sampler in a Bayesian framework. Examples using real data are given.