Levels of theory‐of‐mind reasoning in competitive games

The literature on recursive theory of mind (TOM) reasoning in interactive decision making (reasoning of the type “I think that you think that I think…”) has been pessimistic, suggesting that adults attribute to others levels of reasoning that are low and slow to increase with learning. In four experiments with college‐age adults playing sequential games, we examined whether choices and predictions were consistent with believing that others pursue their immediate self‐interest, or with believing that others reason through their own decision making, with fixed‐sum games that were simpler and more competitive. This manipulation led to higher‐level default TOM reasoning; indeed, reasoning against a lower‐level opponent was frequently consistent with assuming the opponent's reasoning to be higher‐level, leading to sub‐optimal choices. We conclude that TOM reasoning is not of a low level in all game settings; rather, individuals may display effective TOM reasoning, reflecting realistic assumptions about their opponents, in competitive and relatively simple games. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time‐of‐day variation of visuo‐spatial attention

Time‐of‐day variation of visuo‐spatial attention in relation to body temperature and subjective arousal was assessed. At five different times of day, alertness, covert, and overt orienting of attention were assessed in fifteen healthy subjects. Based on previous studies reporting a tight coupling of alerting and orienting the present study investigates potential attentional asymmetries induced by diurnal variations of arousal. Both covert and overt orienting of attention improved in the course of the day. However, no asymmetries between left and right visual hemifields could be detected. Covert orienting additionally covaried with body temperature, indicating a quite close relation between the attentional arousal and orienting system. Conversely, overt orienting only improved due to repeated testing but did not correlate with body temperature suggesting a partial independence of both modes of attentional orienting. It can be assumed that due to limited diurnal variations of arousal in the participants and practice effects caused by repeated testing, no attentional asymmetries could be provoked.     

Computational Evidence That Frequency Trajectory Theory Does Not Oppose But Emerges From Age‐of‐Acquisition Theory

According to the age‐of‐acquisition hypothesis, words acquired early in life are processed faster and more accurately than words acquired later. Connectionist models have begun to explore the influence of the age/order of acquisition of items (and also their frequency of encounter). This study attempts to reconcile two different methodological and theoretical approaches (proposed by Lambon Ralph & Ehsan, 2006 and Zevin & Seidenberg, 2002 ) to age‐limited learning effects. The current simulations extend the findings reported by Zevin and Seidenberg (2002) that have shown that frequency trajectories (FTs) have limited and specific effects on word‐reading tasks. Using the methodological framework proposed by Lambon Ralph and Ehsan (2006) , which makes it possible to compare word‐reading and picture‐naming tasks in connectionist networks, we were able to show that FT has a considerable influence on age‐limited learning effects in a picture naming task. The findings show that when the input–output mappings are arbitrary (simulating picture naming tasks), the links formed by the network become entrenched as a result of early experience and that subsequent variations in frequency of exposure of the items have only a minor impact. In contrast, when the mappings between input‐output are quasi‐systematic or systematic (simulating word‐reading tasks), the training of new items was generalized and resulted in the suppression of age‐limited learning effects. At a theoretical level, we suggest that FT, which simultaneously takes account of time and the level of exposure across time, represents a more precise and modulated measure compared with the order of introduction of the items and may lead to innovative hypotheses in the field of age‐limited learning effects.     

Compensatory knowledge signaling in consumer word‐of‐mouth

This paper extends prior research on consumer knowledge beliefs and word-of-mouth transmission. Findings from four studies suggest that people compensate for unfavorable discrepancies between their actual and ideal consumer knowledge with heightened efforts to signal knowledgeability through the content and volume of their word-of-mouth transmissions. This compensatory knowledge signaling effect is moderated by the self-concept relevance (psychological closeness) of the word-of-mouth target and lay beliefs in the self-enhancement benefits of transmitting product knowledge. Content analysis of participants' product communications further supports our knowledge signaling account. The relationship between actual:ideal knowledge discrepancies and heightened word-of-mouth intentions is mediated by the specific negative emotion associated with actual:ideal self-discrepancies. Overall, the findings suggest that the relationship between consumer knowledge and word-of-mouth transmission depends not only on what you think you know, but also on what you wish you knew.     

Word‐of‐mouth and the forecasting of consumption enjoyment

The digital era has permitted rapid transfer of peer knowledge regarding products and services. In the present research, we explore the value of specific types of word-of-mouth information (numeric ratings and text commentary) for improving forecasts of consumption enjoyment. We present an anchoring-and-adjustment model in which the relative forecasting error associated with ratings and commentary depends on the extent to which consumer and reviewer have similar product-level preferences. To test our model, we present four experiments using a range of hedonic stimuli. Implications for the provision of consumer WOM are discussed.     

Instance‐based learning in dynamic decision making

This paper presents a learning theory pertinent to dynamic decision making (DDM) called instancebased learning theory (IBLT). IBLT proposes five learning mechanisms in the context of a decision‐making process: instance‐based knowledge, recognition‐based retrieval, adaptive strategies, necessity‐based choice, and feedback updates. IBLT suggests in DDM people learn with the accumulation and refinement of instances, containing the decision‐making situation, action, and utility of decisions. As decision makers interact with a dynamic task, they recognize a situation according to its similarity to past instances, adapt their judgment strategies from heuristic‐based to instance‐based, and refine the accumulated knowledge according to feedback on the result of their actions. The IBLT's learning mechanisms have been implemented in an ACT‐R cognitive model. Through a series of experiments, this paper shows how the IBLT's learning mechanisms closely approximate the relative trend magnitude and performance of human data. Although the cognitive model is bounded within the context of a dynamic task, the IBLT is a general theory of decision making applicable to other dynamic environments.     

Testing Serial Crime Events for Randomness in Day‐of‐Week Patterns with Small Samples

This paper discusses exact tests for evaluating whether a series of offences are randomly distributed across days of the week for small sample sizes. The context is if an analyst has identified a series of related events, can the analyst determine if those events are randomly distributed with respect to the day‐of‐week given only a few offences? This paper develops exact reference distributions because the number of potential permutations is small, and this research finds that the likelihood ratio G‐test under realistic circumstances is quite powerful. Only three crimes need to occur on the same day of the week to reject the null. Several examples of using the test under realistic circumstances are illustrated; a series of thefts of catalytic converters where the exact dates are unknown, gang shootings, and arsons over a year. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chinese college students' general and relationship‐specific representations of adult attachment: Variable‐centred and person‐centred analysis

Formerly, researchers often treated adult attachment as a trait‐like construct with consistency across relationship contexts. However, recent studies have shown that people possess multiple relationship‐specific attachment representations, and inter‐correlations among them are only in a small‐to‐medium range. The aim of this study is to test whether these variable‐centred results could be replicated in China and further supplement them with a person‐centred analysis focusing on identifying prototypical patterns of multiple working models across relationships. We administrated measurements of general and four relationship‐specific (mother/father/best friend/romantic partner) working models and indicators of psychological adjustment upon 302 Chinese college students. Results from variable‐centred analysis demonstrated the cross‐relationship variability in working models. Furthermore, global indicators of psychological adjustment were better predicted by general models, while relationship‐specific indicators were better predicted by corresponding relationship‐specific models. These results largely replicate previous Western studies, supporting the existence of multiple attachment representations in China. In person‐centred analysis, a latent profile analysis identified four typical classes of working model profiles: all‐average, all‐secure, romantic‐insecure and peer‐secure. These classes differed not only in the cross‐relationship variability of their working models, but also in their levels of psychological adjustment. These interesting patterns may have theoretical implications and are worthy of further examination.     

Properties of bootstrap tests for N‐of‐1 studies

N‐of‐1 study designs involve the collection and analysis of repeated measures data from an individual not using an intervention and using an intervention. This study explores the use of semi‐parametric and parametric bootstrap tests in the analysis of N‐of‐1 studies under a single time series framework in the presence of autocorrelation. When the Type I error rates of bootstrap tests are compared to Wald tests, our results show that the bootstrap tests have more desirable properties. We compare the results for normally distributed errors with those for contaminated normally distributed errors and find that, except when there is relatively large autocorrelation, there is little difference between the power of the parametric and semi‐parametric bootstrap tests. We also experiment with two intervention designs: ABAB and AB, and show the ABAB design has more power. The results provide guidelines for designing N‐of‐1 studies, in the sense of how many observations and how many intervention changes are needed to achieve a certain level of power and which test should be performed.     

Emotional intelligence and health‐related quality of life in institutionalised Spanish older adults

This study explores the relationship between emotional intelligence (EI) and health‐related quality of life (HRQoL) in a sample of Spanish older adults who are institutionalised in long‐term care (LTC) facilities. One hundred fifteen institutionalised individuals (47.82% women; 88.3 ± 7.9 years) from southern Spain completed a set of questionnaires that included measures of EI, health and personality. Data were analysed via hierarchical regression. After controlling for personality and sociodemographic variables, the EI dimensions, emotional comprehension and emotional facilitation, accounted for part of the variance in several HRQoL facets. These dimensions could have an important role in the HRQoL of residents in LTC. Moreover, the use of a performance measure addresses the limitations of previous studies that have relied on self‐report measures. These aspects underscore the importance of the results of this study.     

Robustness of Decision‐Making Competence: Evidence from Two Measures and an 11‐Year Longitudinal Study

Decision‐making competence (DMC) is the ability to follow normative principles when making decisions. In a longitudinal analysis, we examine the robustness of DMC over time, as measured by two batteries of paper‐and‐pencil tasks. Participants completed the youth version (Y‐DMC) at age 19 and/or the adult version (A‐DMC) 11 years later at age 30, as part of a larger longitudinal study. Both measures are composed of tasks adapted from ones used in experimental studies of decision‐making skills. Results supported the robustness of these measures and the usefulness of the construct. Response patterns for Y‐DMC were similar to those observed with a smaller initial sample drawn from the same population. Response patterns for A‐DMC were similar to those observed with an earlier community sample. Y‐DMC and A‐DMC were significantly correlated, for participants who completed both measures, 11 years apart, even after controlling for measures of cognitive ability. Nomological validity was observed in correlations of scores on both tests with measures of cognitive ability, cognitive style, and environmental factors with predicted relationships to DMC, including household socioeconomic status, neighborhood disadvantage, and paternal substance abuse. Higher Y‐DMC and A‐DMC scores were also associated with lower rates of potentially risky and antisocial behaviors, including adolescent delinquency, cannabis use, and early sexual behavior. Thus, the Y‐DMC and A‐DMC measures appear to capture a relatively stable, measurable construct that increases with supportive environmental factors and is associated with constructive behaviors. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theory‐of‐Mind development and early sibling relationships after the birth of a sibling: Parental discipline matters

This study investigated relations among children's Theory‐of‐Mind (ToM) development, early sibling interactions, and parental discipline strategies during the transition to siblinghood. Using a sample of firstborn children and their parents (N = 208), we assessed children's ToM before the birth of a sibling and 12 months after the birth, and sibling interactions (i.e., positive engagement and antagonism) and parental discipline strategies (i.e., child‐centred and parent‐centred discipline) at 4 and 8 months in the first year of siblinghood. Structural equation modelling analyses revealed that children's ToM before the birth of the sibling predicted children's positive engagement with the infant sibling, whereas children's antagonistic behaviours towards the infant sibling negatively predicted children's ToM at 12 months, but only when mothers used low levels of child‐centred discipline. These findings emphasize the role of parents in the development of young children's social‐cognitive understanding in the context of early sibling interactions.

Highlights

• This study investigated relations among firstborns' Theory‐of‐Mind (ToM), early sibling relationships, and parental discipline during the first year of siblinghood.
• Multigroup analyses showed that ToM predicted higher sibling positive engagement, and early sibling antagonism predicted poorer ToM when mothers used low child‐centred discipline.
• Parental discipline plays an important role in the development of young children's social understanding and sibling relationships as early as the first year of siblinghood.

     

Creating coherence in real‐life decision processes: Reasons,differentiation and consolidation

Svenson, O. & Jakobsson, M. (2009). Creating coherence in real‐life decision processes: Reasons, differentiation and consolidation. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 51, 93–102. Differentiation and Consolidation Theory describes human decision making as a process in which attractiveness values are restructured in order to reach a decision and support the decision made. Here, the theory was developed to include reasons pro and con alternatives and tested on students making decisions between two university psychotherapy training programs (cognitive‐behavioral and psychodynamic therapy). Before and also after the decision, the attractiveness of the chosen alternative was upgraded and the non‐chosen alternative downgraded. Different measures of evaluations of an alternative, such as “best” or “worse” converged over time until shortly after the decision. The number of reasons pro and con alternatives give a more complete picture than attractiveness and increased from the first to the last session. The reasons supporting the chosen alternative increased in strength, but reasons against the non‐chosen alternative decreased. In informal comments participants reported that the study also served as a decision aid.     

Self‐report measures,facial feedback,and personality differences (BEES) in cooperative vs. noncooperative situations: Contribution of the mimic system to the sense of empathy

The present study integrated three different measures of emotional empathic behavior in a social context: verbal self‐report measures (empathic response, emotional involvement, emotional significance, and valence), facial mimicry (activity of corrugator and zygomaticus muscles), and personal response to the Balanced Emotional Empathy Scale (BEES). Participants were presented with different interpersonal scene types (cooperation, noncooperation, conflict, indifference). Firstly, self‐rating on empathy, emotional involvement, and valence varied as a function of interpersonal context. Secondly, corrugator activity increased in response to conflictual and noncooperative situations; zygomatic activity increased in response to cooperative situations. Third, high‐ and low‐BEES subjects showed different empathic behavior: High‐empathic subjects were more responsive to empathy‐related situations than low‐empathic subjects. The convergence and divergence of these multidimensional measures was discussed.     

Ease‐of‐retrieval effects on procedural justice judgements under conditions of informational and personal uncertainty

This study tests whether individuals' reliance on ease‐of‐retrieval processes when forming procedural justice judgements are moderated by informational and personal uncertainty. In Studies 1 and 2 we examined the predicted effects of informational uncertainty. Results indicated that participants in information‐uncertain conditions relied on ease‐of‐retrieval, whereas those in information‐certain conditions relied on content information to make procedural justice judgements. In Study 3 we examined the combined effects of informational uncertainty and personal uncertainty on reliance on ease‐of‐retrieval when forming procedural justice judgements. The findings of Study 3 indicated that personal uncertain participants who were in informational certain conditions based their procedural justice judgements on content information, whereas all other participants based their procedural justice judgements on ease‐of‐retrieval. This is the first paper to demonstrate that the joint effect of informational uncertainty and personal uncertainty on reliance on ease‐of‐retrieval is different from the two uncertainties acting alone.     

The illusion of courage in social predictions: Underestimating the impact of fear of embarrassment on other people

The results of two experiments support the thesis that emotional perspective taking entails two judgments: a prediction of one’s own preferences and decisions in a different emotional situation, and an adjustment of this prediction to accommodate perceived differences between self and others. Participants overestimated others’ willingness to engage in embarrassing public performances—miming (Experiment 1) and dancing (Experiment 2)—in exchange for money. Consistent with a dual judgment model, this overestimation was greater among participants facing a hypothetical rather than a real decision to perform. Further, participants’ predictions of others’ willingness to perform were more closely correlated with self-predictions than with participants’ estimates of others’ thoughts about the costs and benefits of performing.     

Limited‐information goodness‐of‐fit testing of diagnostic classification item response models

Despite the growing popularity of diagnostic classification models (e.g., Rupp et al., 2010, Diagnostic measurement: theory, methods, and applications, Guilford Press, New York, NY) in educational and psychological measurement, methods for testing their absolute goodness of fit to real data remain relatively underdeveloped. For tests of reasonable length and for realistic sample size, full‐information test statistics such as Pearson's X² and the likelihood ratio statistic G² suffer from sparseness in the underlying contingency table from which they are computed. Recently, limited‐information fit statistics such as Maydeu‐Olivares and Joe's (2006, Psychometrika, 71, 713) M₂ have been found to be quite useful in testing the overall goodness of fit of item response theory models. In this study, we applied Maydeu‐Olivares and Joe's (2006, Psychometrika, 71, 713) M₂ statistic to diagnostic classification models. Through a series of simulation studies, we found that M₂ is well calibrated across a wide range of diagnostic model structures and was sensitive to certain misspecifications of the item model (e.g., fitting disjunctive models to data generated according to a conjunctive model), errors in the Q‐matrix (adding or omitting paths, omitting a latent variable), and violations of local item independence due to unmodelled testlet effects. On the other hand, M₂ was largely insensitive to misspecifications in the distribution of higher‐order latent dimensions and to the specification of an extraneous attribute. To complement the analyses of the overall model goodness of fit using M₂, we investigated the utility of the Chen and Thissen (1997, J. Educ. Behav. Stat., 22, 265) local dependence statistic $X_{\mathrm{LD}}^2$ for characterizing sources of misfit, an important aspect of model appraisal often overlooked in favour of overall statements. The $X_{\mathrm{LD}}^2$ statistic was found to be slightly conservative (with Type I error rates consistently below the nominal level) but still useful in pinpointing the sources of misfit. Patterns of local dependence arising due to specific model misspecifications are illustrated. Finally, we used the M₂ and $X_{\mathrm{LD}}^2$ statistics to evaluate a diagnostic model fit to data from the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study, drawing upon analyses previously conducted by Lee et al., (2011, IJT, 11, 144).