Heart attack risk perception biases among hypertension patients: the role of educational level and worry

Risk biases such as comparative optimism (thinking one is better off than similar others) and risk inaccuracy (misestimating one's risk compared to one's calculated risk) for health outcomes are common. Little research has investigated racial or socioeconomic differences in these risk biases. Results from a survey of individuals with poorly controlled hypertension (N=813) indicated that participants showed (1) comparative optimism for heart attack risk by underestimating their heart attack risk compared to similar others, and (2) risk inaccuracy by overestimating their heart attack risk compared to their calculated heart attack risk. More highly educated participants were more comparatively optimistic because they rated their personal risk as lower; education was not related to risk inaccuracy. Neither race nor the federal poverty level was related to risk biases. Worry partially mediated the relationship between education and personal risk. Results are discussed as they relate to the existing literature on risk perception.     

累积情境风险与流动儿童主观幸福感的关系:个体保护因子的补偿效应和保护效应

对511名初二年级的流动儿童（平均年龄：14.37±0.78岁）及其家长进行问卷调查,考察累积情境风险与流动儿童主观幸福感的关系,及自尊、心理弹性和情绪调节等个体保护因子的作用方式差异及累积效应。结果发现：（1）累积情境风险负向预测流动儿童主观幸福感,各领域风险预测作用由大到小依次是家庭关系风险、同伴风险和学校风险,家庭社会经济地位风险预测作用不显著;（2）自尊在各领域风险与主观幸福感的关系中均发挥补偿效应;心理弹性在同伴、学校领域风险中发挥补偿效应,在家庭关系领域风险中发挥保护效应;情绪调节仅在同伴领域风险中发挥保护效应;（3）个体面临的风险数越多,具备的保护因子数越少,流动儿童主观幸福感越低。     

Predicting risk sensitivity in humans and lower animals: risk as variance or coefficient of variation

This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk preference, the superiority of the CV over variance in predicting risk taking is not as strong. Two experiments show that people's risk sensitivity becomes strongly proportional to the CV when they learn about choice alternatives like other animals, by experiential sampling over time. Experience-based choices differ from choices when outcomes and probabilities are numerically described. Zipf's law as an ecological regularity and Weber's law as a psychological regularity may give rise to the CV as a measure of risk.     

Risk perception in Taiwan

In a questionnaire study, 51 Taiwanese college students were asked to judge 48 natural and human-made hazards on nine risk characteristics. Another group of 61 students were asked to rate the magnitude of 80 hazards and their attitudes toward these hazards. To evaluate the dimensionality of risk perception, participants' ratings for the nine risk characteristics were analyzed using Profile Analysis via Multidimensional Scaling approach. Two dimensions of risk perception were identified: (i) Involuntary versus Immediate Effect; and (ii) Delayed Effect versus Known to Science and Chronic. The relationships of risk perceptions and perceived public and private responsibilities in risk management were examined. Catastrophic, certain-to-be-fatal, dreaded, and uncontrollable risks were perceived as more deserving of public risk management, while controllable risks that were known to science, known to those exposed, and chronic were perceived as more deserving of private management. In particular, diseases are perceived as most deserving of private risk management and least deserving of public risk management; and technologies are perceived as most deserving of public risk management and least deserving of private risk management.     

小学儿童入学准备的类型及其与学校适应关系的研究

对北京市389名儿童入学准备的类型进行研究,探讨不同入学准备类型儿童的特点,并通过追踪数据考察儿童入学准备类型对其一学期后学校适应的影响。结果表明:(1)入学准备可以分为入学准备良好、身体健康和动作技能准备不足、身体健康和动作技能突出/其他领域准备不足和入学准备综合不足四种类型;(2)女生入学准备良好型的比例显著高于男生,而身体健康和动作技能准备不足型、入学准备综合不足型的比例显著低于男生;(3)城区儿童入学准备良好型的比例显著高于郊区,而入学准备综合不足型的比例显著低于郊区;(4)入学准备良好型儿童的学校适应好于身体健康和动作技能准备不足型和入学准备综合不足型,入学准备综合不足型的学校适应最差。     

Valuing risk: the ethical review of clinical trial safety

Despite its mandate on minimizing harms in clinical trials, the Common Rule provides little guidance as to how IRBs should evaluate risk. The Common Rule and derivative commentaries tend to conceptualize risk review as an expert-based endeavor aimed at an objective and universal evaluation of possible harm; they also have tended to locate risk in the research activity itself rather than in the context of research. These views of risk conflict with scholarship showing that risk evaluations are socially determined even among experts, that the context of harms can influence how persons evaluate risks, and that forums that approach risk assessment as a technical endeavor bracket from discussion the numerous values that ground risk judgments. Possible reforms are proposed for clinical trial risk review that would render it more inclusive of the different types of risk encountered and more attuned to the priorities of trial subjects.     

风险认知的结构,因素及其研究方法

风险认知是心理学的热门研究领域之一。风险认知是人们对影响日常生活和工作的各种因素的心理感受和认识,是测量公众心理恐慌的指标。风险认知的研究方法包括:风险估计,风险认知的测量;风险认知结构具有复杂性。风险认知的影响因素有:个体因素,期望水平,风险沟通,风险的可控程度,风险的性质,知识结构,成就动机,事件风险度。     

Risk Perception and Affect

ABSTRACT— Humans perceive and act on risk in two fundamental ways. Risk as feelings refers to individuals' instinctive and intuitive reactions to danger. Risk as analysis brings logic, reason, and scientific deliberation to bear on risk management. Reliance on risk as feelings is described as "the affect heuristic." This article traces the development of this heuristic and discusses some of the important ways that it impacts how people perceive and evaluate risk.     

Suicide risk among persons with foreign background in Denmark

There is a dearth of knowledge about factors correlated with suicide risk among minority groups in Western societies. In the present study we compared suicide risk among persons with foreign background with that of the majority population to determine whether certain minority groups are at a particular risk for suicide, as well as to illuminate gender differences herein. Suicide risk was generally higher among persons with foreign background compared with the majority population and the risk was highest among Nordic-born persons. Overall, suicide risk was significantly lower among Asian-born persons; however, there were gender differences in correlations between ethnicity and suicide risk.     

Predictors of demand for risk mitigation in transport

The core aim of the present study is to examine the associations between risk awareness, risk perception, worry and risk tolerance on the one hand and priority of safety and demand for risk mitigation in transport on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey carried out in a randomly selected representative sample of the Norwegian public obtained from the Norwegian population registry during the autumn and winter 2004 (n = 510). The response rate was 51% and comparisons with general population statistics showed that the sample was adequately representative of the Norwegian population in regard of gender, age, education and previous injury experience. Three variables (risk awareness, worry and priority of safety) were significant predictors of demand for risk mitigation. There was also a negative association between worry and risk tolerance. Contrary to previous research on risk perception, the present study did not find support for the hypothesis that general risk perception was a significant predictor, neither of priority of safety, nor of demand for risk mitigation. However, as expected perceived risk was strongly associated with the respondents’ worry. Worry was a significant predictor of priority of safety as well as for demands for risk mitigation. Personal worry did not have the same effect on demand for risk mitigation as general worry.     

Motivation influences the underestimation of cumulative risk

Past research has shown that people typically underestimate the cumulative risk of events. This effect has mainly been interpreted as resulting from the use of cognitive heuristics and judgment strategies, such as availability or anchoring and adjustment. The authors suggest that motivational processes can be an additional force in the generation of cumulative risk estimates. Using an experimental design, Study 1 shows that people underestimate the cumulative risk of infection with sexually transmitted diseases of appealing prospective sexual partners by using risk-irrelevant information for their judgment. Using a correlational design, Study 2 demonstrates that people underestimate the cumulative risk of being infected with a sexually transmitted disease and that commitment to the present partner is directly related to a low cumulative risk estimate as well as indirectly through its effect on the perceived risk of the present partner. Together, the two studies demonstrate that motivation influences the underestimation of cumulative risk.     

Specifying factors in radiation risk perception

This is a study of risk perception and a test of a model of perceived risk. A scale measuring fear was factor analyzed and the resulting five fear factors were related to a large number of risk dimensions, both personal and general. Fear was only rather weakly related to perceived risk. Furthermore, perceived risk of two ionizing radiation hazards (nuclear power, X-rays) were investigated in more detail. These risk ratings were modelled on the basis of attitude, risk sensitivity, specific perceived risk of radiation, trust and an extended version of the traditional Psychometric Model, enhanced by the introduction of a factor of Tampering with Nature. It was found that risk perception could be well explained with this approach and the importance of Tampering with Nature, as well as specific perceived risk, were stressed.     

风险偏爱特征的实验研究

本研究采用等级排序的方法 ,60名被试分别在大、小两种恒定的期望值条件下 ,对不同风险来源和不同风险水平的抽彩方案进行偏爱排序 ,以此来检验组合理论有关风险偏爱模式的假设。结果发现 :( 1 )被试的风险偏爱模式以单峰模式为主 ;( 2 )期望值的大小和不同的风险来源对偏爱模式没有显著影响。通过与美国研究者的结果比较发现 ,中美被试对于固定收益、中等风险和高风险评为最不偏爱的数量上存在显著差异。     

Foundations of risk measurement. II. Effects of gains on risk

This paper presents the second part of a two-part study on axiomatizations of perceived risk. The first part (P. C. Fishburn, Foundations of risk measurement, I. Risk as probable loss. Mimeo., Bell Laboratories, 1981) focussed on risk as probable loss. The second part considers measures of risk that include effects of gains on perceived risk. It adopts the position that increased gains can reduce the risk of fixed probable losses without completely negating this risk. Moreover, every prospect that has no chance of yielding a loss is presumed to have no risk. Several numerical measures of risk are axiomatized. The more specialized are separable in gains and losses. Further specializations isolate the effects of loss and gain probabilities.     

Context-Dependent Pathways of the Transmission of Risk from Communities to Individuals

Research has consistently documented the role of environmental risk factors in the onset of delinquent behavior among youth. Less is known about the processes through which these contextual risks are translated to individual youth behavior. The aim of the current study is to examine the role of family risk factors in the transmission of community risk. Data was obtained from a nationally representative sample of over 30,000 middle school youth and community key informants (CKI). A multilevel, moderated mediation model was estimated with family risk as the moderator of the effect of CKI ratings of community risk on youth perceptions of risk. Results showed that when youth came from low risk families (measured by parental use of positive family management strategies), youth perceptions of risk mediated the effects of community risk on youth delinquency; however, there was no evidence of a significant mediated effect under conditions of high risk (measured by poor family management). This appears to be because youth from high-risk families perceived their neighborhoods as high-risk, regardless of actual levels of risk (as reported by CKI). This study finds that the relationship between communities and adolescent behavior is complex and interacts with the family environment.     

Risk and Prisoner's Dilemma: A Reinterpretation of Coombs' Re‐parameterization

We propose a model to measure risk in a prisoner's dilemma based on Coombs' (1973) re‐parameterization of the game as an individual risk decision‐making task that chooses between a gamble of cooperation and another gamble of defection. Specifically, we propose an index, r, to represent the risk associated with cooperation relative to defection. In conjunction with Rapoport's (1967) index of cooperation (K), our formulation of risk allows us to construct games that vary in risk (as indexed by r) while controlling for cooperativeness (as indexed by K). Following utility analysis that models risk seeking as a convex utility function and risk averse as a concave function, we predict that risk‐seeking people cooperate more in games that the cooperation choice is more risky, whereas risk‐averse people cooperate more in games that the cooperation choice is less risky. In the three studies that we varied game parameters, used different measures of risk orientation and prosocial orientation and used different experimental procedures, we found robust results supporting our predictions. Theoretical analysis of our formulation further suggests that risk and cooperativeness of a prisoner's dilemma game is not entirely independent. Games that have a higher cooperativeness index are necessarily more risky. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

怎样会让我们感觉更危险 ——风险沟通渠道分析

以实验设计与问卷测量相结合的方法,向被试提供真实的环境风险材料,探讨不同类型的（人为或自然）风险、形象性信息、不同感觉通道的信息输入（声音或文字）,以及不同沟通渠道对风险认知的影响。实验一采用实验室设计,发现人为风险比自然风险引起更高的风险认知,形象性信息的呈现增加了风险认知,但不同感觉通道的信息输入对风险认知没有影响。实验二模拟现实生活中电视和网页对风险信息的传递,比较两种沟通渠道对风险认知的影响,结果表明电视比网页唤起更高的风险认知     

Youth suicide risk and sexual orientation

Using a broad suicide risk assessment (suicidal ideation, hopelessness, hostility) with 100 youth ages 17 to 19, this study examined the relationship between sexual orientation and youth suicide risk. Participants were compared across sexual orientation, as well as level of perceived external support, which may be a mitigating variable in suicide risk. The suicide risk demonstrated by sexual minorities in this study was no greater than that of their heterosexual peers. Youth who reported more external support demonstrated lower overall suicide risk and, specifically, lower levels of hostility, hopelessness, and suicidal ideation. The results indicated that suicide risk is not determined by demographic criteria alone, and may be influenced by psychosocial variables, such as support.     

Risk Management Principles for Nanotechnology

Risk management of nanotechnology is challenged by the enormous uncertainties about the risks, benefits, properties, and future direction of nanotechnology applications. Because of these uncertainties, traditional risk management principles such as acceptable risk, cost–benefit analysis, and feasibility are unworkable, as is the newest risk management principle, the precautionary principle. Yet, simply waiting for these uncertainties to be resolved before undertaking risk management efforts would not be prudent, in part because of the growing public concerns about nanotechnology driven by risk perception heuristics such as affect and availability. A more reflexive, incremental, and cooperative risk management approach is required, which not only will help manage emerging risks from nanotechnology applications, but will also create a new risk management model for managing future emerging technologies.