The illusion of knowledge: When more information reduces accuracy and increases confidence

Intuition suggests that having more information can increase prediction accuracy of uncertain outcomes. In four experiments, we show that more knowledge can decrease accuracy and simultaneously increase prediction confidence. Participants were asked to predict basketball games sampled from a National Basketball Association season. All participants were provided with statistics (win record, halftime score), while half were additionally given the team names. Knowledge of names increased the confidence of basketball fans consistent with their belief that this knowledge improved their predictions. Contrary to this belief, it decreased the participants’ accuracy by reducing their reliance on statistical cues. One of the factors contributing to this underweighting of statistical cues was a bias to bet on more familiar teams against the statistical odds. Finally, in a real betting experiment, fans earned less money if they knew the team names while persisting in their belief that this knowledge improved their predictions.     

Biological knowledge is more tentative than physics knowledge: Taiwan high school adolescents' views about the nature of biology and physics

Many educational psychologists believe that students' beliefs about the nature of knowledge, called epistemological beliefs, play an essential role in their learning process. Educators also stress the importance of helping students develop a better understanding of the nature of knowledge. The tentative and creative nature of science is often highlighted by contemporary science educators. However, few previous studies have investigated students' views of more specific knowledge domains, such as biology and physics. Consequently, this study developed a questionnaire to assess students' views specifically about the tentative and creative nature of biology and physics. From a survey of 428 Taiwanese high school adolescents, this study found that although students showed an understanding of the tentative and creative nature of biology and physics, they expressed stronger agreement as to the tentativeness of biology than that of physics. In addition, male students tended to agree more than did females that physics had tentative and creative features and that biology had tentative features. Also, students with more years of science education tended to show more agreement regarding the creative nature of physics and biology than those with fewer years.     

The self-consistency model of subjective confidence

How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen answer is supported across representations. Confidence is modeled by analogy to the calculation of statistical level of confidence (SLC) in testing hypotheses about a population and represents the participant's assessment of the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same choice. Assuming that participants draw representations from a commonly shared item-specific population of representations, predictions were derived regarding the function relating confidence to inter-participant consensus and intra-participant consistency for the more preferred (majority) and the less preferred (minority) choices. The predicted pattern was confirmed for several different tasks. The confidence-accuracy relationship was shown to be a by-product of the consistency-correctness relationship: It is positive because the answers that are consistently chosen are generally correct, but negative when the wrong answers tend to be favored. The overconfidence bias stems from the reliability-validity discrepancy: Confidence monitors reliability (or self-consistency), but its accuracy is evaluated in calibration studies against correctness. Simulation and empirical results suggest that response speed is a frugal cue for self-consistency, and its validity depends on the validity of self-consistency in predicting performance. Another mnemonic cue-accessibility, which is the overall amount of information that comes to mind-makes an added, independent contribution. Self-consistency and accessibility may correspond to the 2 parameters that affect SLC: sample variance and sample size.     

Safety is more than the antonym of risk

abstract   Even though much research has been devoted to studies of safety, the concept of safety is in itself under-theorised, especially concerning its relation to epistemic uncertainty. In this paper we propose a conceptual analysis of safety. The paper explores the distinc-tion between absolute and relative safety, as well as that between objective and subjective safety. Four potential dimensions of safety are discussed, viz. harm, probability, epistemic uncertainty, and control. The first three of these are used in the proposed definition of safety, whereas it is argued that control should not be included in a reasonable definition of safety. It is shown that strictly speaking, an objective safety concept is not attainable. Instead, an intersubjective concept is proposed that brings us as close as possible to an objective concept.     

Methodology is more than research design and technology

The Society for Computers in Psychology has been at the forefront of disseminating information about advances in computer technology and their applications for psychologists. Although technological advances, as well as clean research designs, are key contributors to progress in psychological research, the justification of methodological rules for interpreting data and making theory choices is at least as important. Historically, methodological beliefs and practices have been justified through intuition and logic, an approach known asfoundationism. However,naturalism, a modern approach in the philosophy of science inspired by the work of Thomas S. Kuhn, indicates that all aspects of scientific practice, including its methodology, should be evaluated empirically. This article examines implications of the naturalistic approach for psychological research methods in general and for the current debate that is often framed as one of qualitative versus quantitative methods.     

The correction for attenuation due to measurement error: clarifying concepts and creating confidence sets

The correction for attenuation due to measurement error (CAME) has received many historical criticisms, most of which can be traced to the limited ability to use CAME inferentially. Past attempts to determine confidence intervals for CAME are summarized and their limitations discussed. The author suggests that inference requires confidence sets that demarcate those population parameters likely to have produced an obtained value--rather than indicating the samples likely to be produced by a given population--and that most researchers tend to confuse these 2 types of confidence sets. Three different Monte-Carlo methods are presented, each offering a different way of examining confidence sets under the new conceptualization. Exploring the implications of these approaches for CAME suggests potential consequences for other statistics.     

There is more to life stories than memories

Current theories focus on the role of specific memories in organising the life story. However, temporally extended structures of autobiographical memory, like lifetime periods and mini-narratives (here termed chapters), may also play a central role in the organisation of the life story. Here, 30 elderly participants were asked to tell their life story in a free format. The life stories were divided into components and coded as chapters, specific memories, categoric memories, facts, chapters about other people, and autobiographical reasoning categories, i.e., reflections, evaluations, life lessons, and inferences about personality. The results show that chapters were much more common than specific memories in the life stories, indicating that chapters may play a role in the structuring of life stories. The number of chapters and specific memories in the life stories were unrelated, suggesting that the recounting of chapters versus specific memories does not reflect a preferred recall style.     

谁更为有福

经文:徒20:35 元朝时,福音传到华夏,宫中民间,高官贵胄平民百姓多有信主的,他们被称为"也里可温",意思是"有福之人"。信主的人是有福的人,福成为基督徒的身份标志,每个人信主以后,成了基督徒,都希望自己是个有福的人,在属灵生活上与其他弟兄姊妹共同追求新生命长进的过程,互相激励,彼此推动,更巴不得自己是一个福上加福、更为有福的人。 谁更为有福呢?在使徒行传里,保罗牢牢地记得主耶稣的一句话,那是关于基督徒更为有福的教训。主耶稣说"施比受更为有福"。给予的人是有福的,他的福比先前更多,为什么给予会让人更为有福呢?     

The role of prior knowledge in error correction for younger and older adults

Previous work has demonstrated that, when given feedback, younger adults are more likely to correct high-confidence errors compared with low-confidence errors, a finding termed the hypercorrection effect. Research examining the hypercorrection effect in both older and younger adults has demonstrated that the relationship between confidence and error correction was stronger for younger adults compared with older adults. However, recent work suggests that error correction is largely related to prior knowledge, while confidence may primarily serve as a proxy for prior knowledge. Prior knowledge generally remains stable or increases with age; thus, the current experiment explored how both confidence and prior knowledge contributed to error correction in younger and older adults. Participants answered general knowledge questions, rated how confident they were that their response was correct, received correct answer feedback, and rated their prior knowledge of the correct response. Overall, confidence was related to error correction for younger adults, but this relationship was much smaller for older adults. However, prior knowledge was strongly related to error correction for both younger and older adults. Confidence alone played little unique role in error correction after controlling for the role of prior knowledge. These data demonstrate that prior knowledge largely predicts error correction and suggests that both older and younger adults can use their prior knowledge to effectively correct errors in memory.     

The predictive validity of self-efficacy in training performance: little more than past performance

Past research on the influence of self-efficacy in training has provided mixed results. Key differences between studies pertain to whether past performance is operationalized as a residual variable or as an unadjusted variable and to the type of task used. In this study, the authors conducted and performed a reanalysis to examine the influence of self-efficacy using both operationalizations of past performance in 2 experimental tasks. Results indicate that, regardless of task version or type, self-efficacy predicted performance only when a residual measure of past performance was used, but not when past performance was unadjusted. However, when past performance was adjusted, the findings for self-efficacy were likely a statistical artifact. These results suggest that self-efficacy is a consequence rather than a cause of performance in training.     

Perception of timing is more context sensitive than sensorimotor synchronization

In three experiments, the effects of contextual temporal variation on the perception of timing and on sensorimotor synchronization were examined. Experiment 1 showed that exposure to a variably timed auditory precursor sequence reduces the detectability of deviations from isochrony in a musical test sequence. By contrast, in Experiment 2 there was only a small and transient effect of identical precursor sequences on the variability of finger taps that were synchronized with a similar test sequence. Moreover, the precursor did not impede phase error correction following deviations from isochrony in the test sequence. Experiment 3 employed a within-subjects design that required simultaneous detection of irregularities in and synchronization with nonmusical auditory sequences. Precursor variability impaired only detection, not synchronization performance. These results suggest that perception of deviations from regularity engages context-sensitive tining processes, probably related to conscious awareness, that are not involved in sensorimotor synchronization.     

Adults see vision to be more informative than it is

Humans gain a wide range of knowledge through interacting with the environment. Each aspect of our perceptual experiences offers a unique source of information about the world—colours are seen, sounds heard and textures felt. Understanding how perceptual input provides a basis for knowledge is thus central to understanding one's own and others' epistemic states. Developmental research suggests that 5-year-olds have an immature understanding of knowledge sources and that they overestimate the knowledge to be gained from looking. Without evidence from adults, it is not clear whether the mature reasoning system outgrows this overestimation. The current study is the first to investigate whether an overestimation of the knowledge to be gained from vision occurs in adults. Novel response time paradigms were adapted from developmental studies. In two experiments, participants judged whether an object or feature could be identified by performing a specific action. Adult participants found it disproportionately easy to accept looking as a proposed action when it was informative, and difficult to reject looking when it was not informative. This suggests that adults, like children, overestimate the informativeness of vision. The origin of this overestimation and the implications that the current findings bear on the interpretation of children's overestimation are discussed.     

Confidence via correction: The effect of judgment correction on consumer confidence

At times, consumers are motivated to reduce the influence of a product recommendation on their judgments. Based on previous research, it is unclear whether this correction process will increase or decrease consumers' confidence in their judgments. We find that source credibility moderates the effect of correction on confidence: correction decreases confidence when a product recommendation comes from a high credibility source but increases confidence when the same message comes from a low credibility source. As a result, correction increases the effectiveness of recommendations from low credibility sources on purchase intentions. Notably, this “confidence via correction” effect is further moderated by elaboration, such that the effect is attenuated for high elaboration consumers. Our results have implications for understanding consumers' reactions to persuasive messages and for both marketing practitioners and consumer protection agencies using correction cues to influence message persuasiveness.     

Converging evidence that visuospatial cognition is more age-sensitive than verbal cognition

In 3 separate experiments, the same samples of young and older adults were tested on verbal and visuospatial processing speed tasks, verbal and visuospatial working memory tasks, and verbal and visuospatial paired-associates learning tasks. In Experiment 1, older adults were generally slower than young adults on all speeded tasks, but age-related slowing was much more pronounced on visuospatial tasks than on verbal tasks. In Experiment 2, older adults showed smaller memory spans than young adults in general, but memory for locations showed a greater age difference than memory for letters. In Experiment 3, older adults had greater difficulty learning novel information than young adults overall, but older adults showed greater deficits learning visuospatial than verbal information. Taken together, the differential deficits observed on both speeded and unspeeded tasks strongly suggest that visuospatial cognition is generally more affected by aging than verbal cognition.     

Suboptimal choice by dogs: when less is better than more

The less is more effect, an example of an affect heuristic, can be shown in humans when they give greater value to a set of six baseball cards in perfect condition, than to the same set of six perfect cards together with three additional cards each with some value but in fair condition. A similar effect has been reported in monkeys which will eat both grapes and cucumbers but prefer grapes, when they prefer a single grape over a single grape plus a slice of cucumber. In the present experiment, we tested the less is more effect with a nonprimate but social species, dogs. We used dogs that would eat a slice of carrot and a slice of cheese but preferred the cheese. When we then gave them a choice between a slice of cheese and a slice of cheese plus a slice of carrot, most dogs preferred the single slice of cheese. Thus, the less is more effect appears to occur in several species.