时距估计中的锚定效应

采用两种时距估计方法,检验时距锚定值对时距估计的影响,并探讨了时距信息的心理表征方式。63名在校大学生参加了本次实验。实验1采用口头报告法,表明较大的时距锚定值（5s,5000ms）条件下,被试估对时距的估计值较大,而较小时距锚定值（1s,1000ms）条件下被试估计的时距值较小;语义相同但表述方式不同的锚定值（1s与1000ms,5s与5000ms）条件下的时距估计值没有显著差异。实验2采用产生法,进一步表明时距表述方式对产生时距没有显著影响。以上结果表明,时距估计受时距锚定值的影响,时距信息可能以语义形式进行表征,而不是简单的数字加单位的表层表征形式     

ANCHORS AWAY–THE STABILITY OF MEANING OF ANCHORS WHEN THEIR LOCATION IS CHANGED

This study addresses three questions. (1) Does the meaning of the neutral anchor shift when its position is moved away from the middle of the series? The location of (psychological) zero in rating scales is crucial if they are to be used as multipliers (e.g., as weights or in functional equations). (2) Does moving the neutral anchor from a central position increase sensitivity (variance) of ratings? Such displacement has been used frequently without investigation of its effects. (3) Are any of the above effects general across types of anchors? Displacement had significant effects (N= 210) on meaning of the neutral anchor and on sensitivity. Stability of meaning of anchors, however, was greater when anchors were words rather than faces. Therefore verbal anchors should be used, with the neutral anchor located centrally, to establish zero; but displaced to increase sensitivity at one end of the scale.     

锚定效应的产生前提及作用机制

为了探讨锚定效应的产生前提以及基础锚定效应的理论解释,设计了两个实验。实验一选取高、低、无三种锚值,设置了15ms、45ms、75ms、1000ms四种呈现时间,结果发现只有15ms条件下未出现锚定效应,随着呈现时间增加,锚定效应不断增大,低锚下的锚定效应高于高锚下的锚定效应。实验二设置了语意相同但表述形式不同的两种水平的锚值,结果发现两者引发的锚定效应不同。锚定效应的产生前提是注意,数字启动假说可以更好地解释基础锚定效应。     

The More You Ask For,the More You Get: Anchoring in Personal Injury Verdicts

The ‘anchoring and adjustment’ bias was demonstrated in a personal injury case using mock jurors. In Experiment 1, the ad damnum, or requested compensation, was manipulated across participants. In Experiment 2, anchors were operationalized as the strength of the legal evidence. Both monetary and causal anchors systematically influenced judgments of the probability that the defendant caused the plaintiff's injuries, compensation awarded, and perceptions of the litigants. These results indicate that anchoring occurs in legal applications, and that plaintiffs would do well to request large compensation awards. In addition, anchors expressed on one scale affected judgments expressed on another scale. This cross-modality anchoring stands in contrast to previous studies. Finally, these anchoring effects are unlikely to be explained by either demand effects or perceived relevance of the anchor.     

Hindsight bias as a function of anchor distance and anchor plausibility

This study explored the influence of anchor distance on hindsight bias and how the subjective plausibility of different anchors moderates this relation. In addition to the standard memory design used in hindsight bias research, participants were asked to indicate the range of values for possible answers to difficult almanac questions. Varying anchor distance on the basis of each participant's individual range of possible answers showed (1) that anchor plausibility decreased with increasing anchor distance following a non-linear monotone function, (2) that size of hindsight bias initially increased with increasing anchor distance but, from a certain distance, started to decrease, and (3) that hindsight bias was found to be always higher for plausible than for implausible anchors.     

How many migrants are people willing to welcome into their country? The effect of numerical anchoring on migrants’ acceptance

How many migrants are people willing to welcome into their country? Relying on a classical anchoring paradigm, we investigated the effect of numerical anchors reported in communication media echoing political positions regarding how many migrants should be accepted in one country. Four studies (N = 601) tested the effect of a numerical anchor within a politician’s statement on the number of migrants that people think should be accepted in their home country. Across studies, we found a strong anchor effect (average Cohen’s d = 1.40, 95% CI [1.18, 1.63]): participants were willing to accept a higher (vs. lower) number of migrants following a high (vs. low) anchor. Importantly, the effect occurred among both left wing‐ and right wing‐oriented participants, although being slightly smaller among the latter (Study 3). Moreover, it was independent from the political party serving as the source for the anchors as well as participants’ attitude toward these political parties (Study 4). Relevance of the present findings for persuasion and political decision‐making literature is discussed.     

Anchor effects using numerical estimates of simple dot patterns

Shifts due to anchor stimuli using absolute judgments have been ascribed to “semantic” and “scale modulus” changes. To test this explanation, random dot patterns of 10, 12, 14, 16 and 18 dots were exposed for 0.30 sec with anchors of 4, 13 or 32 dots preceding each of the stimuli. In the control only the series of stimuli were judged. It was found that numerical estimates of the number of dots increased with small anchor, decreased with large anchor, and were not significantly changed with anchor in the vicinity of AL. These results exactly parallel those found using methods of absolute and comparative ratings and hence cannot be ascribed to semantic shifts especially in view of the fact that independent groups of Ss served in the four anchor and control conditions. Since the anchor effects were significant but not so large that they can be ascribed to change of scale modulus this theory must also be rejected. The AL model seems to offer the simplest and most unitary explanation of these as well as many other results obtained with different types of stimuli and different methods of judging.     

Anchors distort estimates of expected duration

This research explored the effect of presenting participants an anchor, which is a salient standard of comparison, before asking them to estimate the amount of time they believe they will need to complete a task (expected duration estimation). Such anchors can be assumed to be common in real-life situations, e.g., duration suggestions made by work colleagues. Participants were 32 students (M age = 23.1 yr., SD = 3.2; 28 women) who received course credit for participating. In the presence or absence of one of two anchors they had to estimate how much time they would need to work on a catalogue task. Actual time needed for the task was also measured. As predicted, analysis showed that estimates of expected duration were distorted in the direction of the anchors, i.e., estimations were assimilated into the presented anchor value. The implications for time management are discussed.     

The dimensionality of judgments of heaviness

Two groups of Ss judged differences in heaviness between all pairs of stimuli in three series of five weights each. One group judged differences in the 100-300 g range, the other group judged differences in the 700–900 g range. The three series of weights in the two ranges consisted of one series of constant size varying in both weight and density, one series varying only in weight, and one series varying only in density. Multidimensional scaling analysis revealed at least two dimensions, and indicated that where both weight and density are allowed to vary, both will affect judgment of the magnitude of differences in heaviness. With heavier weights, density appears to exert an increasingly important influence on judgments of heaviness. Predictions from Ross and Di Lollo’s vector theory were confirmed.     

Precision of the anchor influences the amount of adjustment

The anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic has been used to account for a wide variety of numerical judgments. Five studies show that adjustment away from a numerical anchor is smaller if the anchor is precise than if it is rounded. Evidence suggests that precise anchors, compared with rounded anchors, are represented on a subjective scale with a finer resolution. If adjustment consists of a series of iterative mental movements along a subjective scale, then an adjustment from a precise anchor should result in a smaller overall correction than an adjustment from a rounded anchor.     

Effects of practice and distribution of auditory signals on absolute identification

In absolute identification of intensity, signals near the edges of the range being used are usually identified more accurately than those in the midrange. In one account, the extreme signals serve as anchors, and judgments are postulated to deteriorate as the distance from the signal to the nearest anchor increases. Our data suggest that, provided one corrects for the inherent asymmetry of errors for end and interior signals, the edge effect is rather smaller than it might first appear and is largely confined to the more intense edge. Moreover, anchors are not necessarily located at the edges of the range, but rather at the edges of the largest subset among which difficult discriminations are required. Further, this subset is not defined wholly by the signals used in a particular run, but by these together with those previously encountered in that day’s session. Neither practice nor payoffs appear to influence the location of the anchor so long as the discrimination requirements are maintained. Finally, the role of anchors is interpreted in terms of the differential location of an attention band which controls the sample size upon which the representation of the signal is based.     

问题性网络游戏使用青少年未来取向的助推研究

摘要：以问题性网络游戏使用青少年为研究对象,基于锚定效应助推国民身心健康的理论前提和态度改变理论视角,通过实验1和实验2分别建立未来取向内部锚和未来取向外部锚,检验未来取向内部锚和外部锚对减少问题性网络游戏使用青少年游戏时间的有效性。结果表明,未来取向内部和外部的助推方式,均能够有效促进问题性网络游戏使用青少年游戏时间的减少,提高了决策效用。     

Intramodal and crossmodal pairing and anchoring in comparisons of successive stimuli

Two experiments were conducted to study effects of modality, temporal position, and their interaction on comparisons of successive stimuli. In Experiment 1, intramodal (tone–tone and line–line) and crossmodal (tone–line and line–tone) stimulus pairs, with two interstimulus intervals (ISIs), 400 and 2,000 ms, were presented. Participants indicated which stimulus was the “stronger.” Time-order errors (TOEs) were assessed using the D% measure and were found in all types of pairs. Variation in TOEs across conditions was well accounted for by changes in parameters (stimulus weights, reference levels) in an extended version of Hellström’s sensation weighting (SW) model. With an ISI of 2,000 ms, the first stimulus had a lower weight (less impact on the response) than did the second stimulus. More negative TOEs were found with the longer ISI in all pair types except tone–line. In Experiment 2, participants indicated which of two lines was the longer or which of two tones was the louder. An intra- or crossmodal anchor, or no anchor, was interpolated between the stimuli. Anchoring tended to reduce the weight of the first stimulus, suggesting interference with memory, and to yield negative TOEs. Intramodal anchors yielded reduced weights of both stimuli, most dramatically for tones, suggesting an additional effect of stimulus interference. Response times decreased with crossmodal anchors. For line–line pairs, strong negative TOEs were found. In both experiments, the variation in TOE across conditions was well accounted for by the SW model.     

Hindsight bias as a function of anchor distance and anchor plausibility

This study explored the influence of anchor distance on hindsight bias and how the subjective plausibility of different anchors moderates this relation. In addition to the standard memory design used in hindsight bias research, participants were asked to indicate the range of values for possible answers to difficult almanac questions. Varying anchor distance on the basis of each participant's individual range of possible answers showed (1) that anchor plausibility decreased with increasing anchor distance following a non-linear monotone function, (2) that size of hindsight bias initially increased with increasing anchor distance but, from a certain distance, started to decrease, and (3) that hindsight bias was found to be always higher for plausible than for implausible anchors.     

Initiating Salary Discussions With an Extreme Request: Anchoring Effects on Initial Salary Offers1

Two studies were conducted to examine the effects of implausible anchors on initial salary offers. Participants provided a salary offer to a candidate after receiving a relevant anchor and an implausible anchor. The results of Study 1 indicated that a high implausible anchor influenced salary offers, even in the presence of the relevant anchor. Study 2 examined whether a more extreme implausible anchor would also affect salary offers. The results indicated that both the high anchor and the extremely high anchor led to higher salary offers than did the control condition.     

我国一大型考试等值的铆题参数漂移检验

设置铆题来链接不同测验形式是一种常用的等值设计。但受到曝光等因素影响,铆题功能在不同施测时间会发生改变。本研究采用MH检验和logistic回归考察我国一大型考试等值的铆题质量,结果发现,有22个铆题发生参数漂移,铆题的难度参数和区分度参数可能发生漂移;这些铆题中大部分在二次使用时无法通过模型拟合检验;若不删除参数发生漂移的铆题导致较大的系统等值误差,应将铆题参数漂移检验作为等值中的一步必要工作。     

Normativeness and individualism

Five experiments were conducted with a twofold aim: firstly, examine the normativeness of some important features of Western individualism, and secondly, determine what aspect of social value serves as the anchor for their potential normativeness. Five key constituents of individualism were studied. A questionnaire composed of five sub‐questionnaires was used, each one referring to an ‘individualistic’ constituent and to its opposing ‘collectivistic’ referent. Two main paradigms in the judgment‐norm approach were implemented, one implying self‐presentation strategies and the other implying social judgments. Together, the results revealed that only three constituents of individualism can be considered normative—self‐sufficiency, individual anchoring, and internality—and that one of the constituents—the primacy of individual goals—is not normative at all, and may be even counter‐normative. The results pointed out an individualistic pattern that is much less homogeneous than often assumed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anchoring in time estimation

In two experiments, an anchoring account of the misestimation of future task duration was tested. This account states that such misestimation occurs because previous task duration serves as an anchor for predictions, leading to underestimation when a longer task follows a shorter one and overestimation when a shorter task follows a longer one. Before estimating the duration of a focal task, participants selected a figure (anchor) of a longer or shorter duration produced by other participants in previous research on the same task (Experiment 1) or a different task (Experiment 2). In both experiments, misestimation differed according to the relative duration of the anchor to the focal task. Underestimation occurred with the shorter anchor and overestimation occurred with the longer one, suggesting that estimates were distorted in the direction of the anchors. This finding is discussed in relation to the role of prior task experience in moderating this anchoring effect.     

内在锚与外在锚对锚定效应及其双加工机制的影响

通过2（外在锚类型：高锚VS低锚）×2（内在锚类型：有VS无）被试间设计,考察不同锚定信息来源：由外部世界提供的外在锚与个体自身内部产生的内在锚信息对锚定效应及其加工机制的影响。结果发现：（1）当内在锚不存在时,外在高低锚组的估计值有显著差异,当内在锚存在时此种差异变得不显著;（2）当内在锚存在时,外在高低锚组被试的答题反应时有显著差异,内在锚与外在锚一致时反应时比不一致时更快,当内在锚不存在时,此种差异变得不显著。实验结果表明,当锚定调整机制与选择通达机制同时存在时,前者更占优势;锚定信息一致性会影响不同加工机制的启动,一致的信息会激活选择通达机制,不一致的信息则会激活锚定调整机制。     

Anchoring and relational judgments by young children and retardates

In five experiments using as dimensions brightness, texture, facial happiness, height, and weight, young children (ages 3.4 to 5.3 years) rendered bipolar judgments of stimuli intermediate in value between alternately given extreme anchors. Consistent relational shifts away from the anchors were found for all dimensions judged, and these effects proved virtually independent of children’s ages, the sequential orders of stimulus and anchor presentation, or the provision of overt visual memory props. Evidence of relational judgment within the narrower range of the test stimuli alone was also found. Essentially similar relational judgments were replicated with a sample of severe adult mental retardates.