Predicting Presidential Performance in the United States: Equation Replication on Recent Survey Results

Abstract

For more than 2 decades, researchers have tried to identify the variables that predict the overall performance of U.S. presidents. In 1986, there emerged a 6-variable prediction equation (D. K. Simonton, 1986c, 1987b) that has been replicated repeatedly. The predictors are years in office, war years, scandal, assassination, heroism in war, and intellectual brilliance. The author again replicated the equation on recent rankings of all presidents from George Washington through William Jefferson Clinton according to a survey of 719 experts (W. R. Ridings, Jr., & S. B. Mclver, 1997). The original 6-variable equation successfully predicted both the overall rankings as well as the 5 core components of the rankings (leadership qualities, accomplishment, political skill, appointments, character and integrity). The predictive value of the equation was illustrated for the presidencies of Ronald W. Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Clinton.     

Predicting the evolution of counseling psychology in the United States: results from a Delphi poll of academic training directors

What might the field of counseling psychology in the United States of America look like 10 years from now? In a Delphi Poll, an expert panel, consisting of 28 training directors from APA-accredited counseling psychology programs, made predictions regarding the future of counseling psychology 10 years from now in relation to three domains (core features, research and training, and professional training) and 32 specific areas within those domains. The strongest core feature of counseling psychology was viewed as a continuing commitment to issues of diversity (M = 4.64, SD = .63); the research and training theme predicted to attract the most attention in the next 10 years was a commitment to evidence-based practice (M = 4.71, SD = 1.20); and the professional training theme predicted to gain the greatest focus was attention to professional competence (M = 4.43, SD = .65). Results were compared with a previous Delphi Poll conducted in 2001, and recommendations are outlined for future research designed to contribute to the ongoing development of the field of counseling psychology.     

Predicting electoral activism among gays and lesbians in the United States

Although battles over gay and lesbian rights have appeared prominently in political arenas, scholars have created few empirical studies on gay and lesbian activism. To address this absence, this quantitative study identified factors that inspired greater electoral engagement among gays and lesbians in the United States (n = 285). After integrating “resource,” “mobilizing,” and “framing” variables into regressions, this study found that electoral activism was inspired by many sorts of motivators. In sum, activist tendencies were swayed by educational levels, perceptions of political potency, a desire to conceal sexual orientations, surviving hate crimes, and joining certain political groups. Interestingly, this study supported “new social movement” theories that downplay economic factors as predictors of involvement in gay and lesbian rights campaigns.     

A more recent look at the prevalence of stuttering in the United States

Data was requested from 50 states and 5 protectorate-trusteeships on: (1) the total school enrollment and (2) the number of stutterers identified each year between 1964–1973. The data are interpreted with reference to past prevalence figures. Trends within the 1964–1973 period are discussed. The study lends support to Van Riper's predicted declining prevalence of stuttering, yet there was no significant changes in incidence over the 10 year period.     

A survey of some recent results on Spectrum Exchangeability in Polyadic Inductive Logic

The discussion presents a framework of concepts that is intended to account for the rationality of semantic change and variation, suggesting that each scientific concept consists of three components of content: (1) reference, (2) inferential role, and (3) the epistemic goal pursued with the concept’s use. I argue that in the course of history a concept can change in any of these components, and that change in the concept’s inferential role and reference can be accounted for as being rational relative to the third component, the concept’s epistemic goal. This framework is illustrated and defended by application to the history of the gene concept. It is explained how the molecular gene concept grew rationally out of the classical gene concept despite a change in reference, and why the use and reference of the contemporary molecular gene concept may legitimately vary from context to context.     

A cross-cultural study of infant temperament: Predicting preschool effortful control in the United States of America and Russia

Effortful control (EC) has been conceptualized as a dimension of temperament related to self-regulation and associated with the development of executive attention skills. Research has focused on documenting the development of EC, but there has been little systematic study of its precursors. The present study was designed to examine infant temperament characteristics as potential predictors of EC in the toddler/preschool period across two countries: Russia and the USA. Specifically, contributions of negative emotionality (NE), positive affectivity/surgency (PAS), and regulatory capacity/orienting (RCO) measured in the first year of life were expected to explain EC in the preschool period. For the US sample, toddler NE, infant PAS and RCO explained significant amounts of EC variance, whereas infant RCO was the single significant predictor of later EC in the Russian sample. Analyses with the combined sample provided an opportunity to evaluate temperament-by-culture interactions, one of which (PAS×Culture) reached statistical significance. Follow-up analyses indicated that higher levels of infant PAS were related to higher EC scores for US children only, whereas for the Russian youth preschool EC did not vary as a function of infant PAS. Results of this study support the importance of early appearing regulation in contributing to the development of EC and illustrate the value of cross-cultural longitudinal research.     

Testing the status-legitimacy hypothesis: Predicting system justification using objective and subjective socioeconomic status in China and the United States

The status-legitimacy hypothesis proposes that those who are most disadvantaged by unequal social systems are even more likely than members of more advantaged groups to provide ideological support for the very social system that is responsible for their disadvantages. Li, Yang, Wu, and Kou (2020, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin) sought to expand the generalizability of this hypothesis by testing it in China, addressing inconsistencies surrounding the empirical support for this hypothesis by postulating that the construct of status should be separated into an objective and subjective status marker. They reported that objective socioeconomic status (SES; income and education) negatively predicted system justification, while subjective SES positively predicted system justification. In the present study we attempt to replicate and extend the work of Li et al. in a cross-cultural comparison of demographic stratified quota online samples in China and the United States. We test the status-legitimacy hypothesis using objective and subjective SES to predict system justification using cross-sectional and cross-lagged regression analyses. We received partial support for Li et al.'s findings. Specifically, subjective SES positively predicted system justification for both societies during cross-sectional and cross-lagged longitudinal analyses. However, we failed to replicate Li et al.'s findings surrounding objective SES in China during cross-sectional and cross-lagged analyses.     

A pilot investigation of the effects of stress on neuropsychological performance in Asian-Indians in the United States

The present study evaluated the effects of stress and the ethnicity of the examiner on neuropsychological performance in a sample of Asian-Indian males in the United States. Participants were 60 Asian-Indian college students randomly assigned to one of four conditions in a 2 x 2 factorial design. The first factor was level of stress induction and the second was ethnicity of examiners. Results suggested that both stress inducing instructions and examiner ethnicity impacted highly demanding tasks, while moderately difficult tasks were less sensitive to ethnicity of the examiner. Results also indicate that examiners should recognize the potential impact of ethnicity and heightened level of stress when administering and interpreting neuropsychological measures.     

State of the States: A survey of statutory law,regulations and court rules pertaining to guilty pleas across the United States

A psycholegal research agenda on guilty pleas is in its nascent stage. Multijurisdictional surveys of related law and policy may advance this research agenda by focusing investigators on the specifics of existing policies and motivating cross‐jurisdictional comparisons of diverse policies. We thus conducted a systematic, national survey of statutes, regulations and court rules across the United States pertaining to nine aspects of the guilty plea process, including sentencing differentials, collateral consequences and waiver of rights, which have been identified in existing legal and psycholegal research and commentary. Following a discussion of these issues, including legal concerns and existing research findings, we present the results of our systematic survey. We supplement this review with a non‐systematic sampling of appellate case law. Broadly, there was notable diversity in whether and how jurisdictions approached these issues. We discuss general and specific implications of our findings for future research, emphasizing the importance of data on actual policies and procedures to the design of studies that may contribute to evidence‐based criminal justice policy.     

Assessment Centers: Current Practices in the United States

Purpose  

The goals of this investigation were to review current AC practices in the United States by evaluating whether they follow the Guidelines and Ethical Considerations for Assessment Center Operations (International Task Force on Assessment Centers, 2000). We both expanded upon and compared our results to a prior benchmarking study (Spychalski et al. in Personnel Psychol, 50:71–90, 1997), and investigated practices regarding job analysis, AC development, dimensions (i.e., job requirements), exercises, assessor characteristics and training, behavior recording, data integration, organizational policy, assessee rights, AC evaluation and AC technology. Data were collected via an online survey completed by individuals from human resource departments of organizations (N = 54) across the U.S; organizations to whom the survey was sent were selected by sampling Fortune 500 organizations based on economic sector.     

Effects of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance by United States Air Force pilots

This study examined the effects of 35 h of continuous sleep deprivation on performance in a variety of cognitive tasks as well as simulated flight. Ten United States Air Force pilots completed the Multi-Attribute Task Battery (MATB), Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT), and Operation Span Task (OSPAN), as well as simulated flight at 3 h intervals over a 35 h sleep deprivation period. Performance declined on all tests after about 18–20 h of continuous sleep deprivation, although the degree to which performance degraded varied. During the second half of the sleep deprivation period, performance on the simulated flight was predicted by PVT and OSPAN reasonably well but much less so by the MATB. Variance from optimal flight performance was predicted by both PVT and OSPAN but each measure added incremental validity to the prediction. The two measures together accounted for 58% of the variance in flight performance in the second half of the sleep deprivation period.     

Training preservice general education teachers in response to intervention: A survey of teacher educators throughout the United States

Response to intervention (RTI) is an evidence-based approach to educational service delivery that is being increasingly adopted by schools across the country. To effectively implement RTI models, teachers require specialized training. Little is currently known, however, about the extent to which this training is being provided at the preservice level. The purpose of this survey study was to learn more about RTI-related training provided to preservice general educators in undergraduate elementary education programs. Respondents included 95 program directors of accredited college/university teacher education programs across the United States. Participants reported providing varying levels of didactic and applied training related to each of the six core components of RTI (i.e., multitiered service delivery, universal screening, progress monitoring, data-based decision making, evidence-based interventions, and fidelity of implementation). Although most teacher educators were familiar with the overall concept of RTI, over a third of respondents were not familiar with the core component of fidelity of implementation, and reported providing limited training opportunities in this area. Respondents also indicated whether preservice teachers in their programs receive training related to specific progress monitoring tools and evidence-based interventions. Implications for school psychologists, who frequently collaborate with teachers to implement RTI models, are discussed.     

美国医师的职责

在此讨论的主要问题是,什么样的社会力量能使医师对诊治病人和技术操作的质量担负起责任？这种社会力量的来源之一是职业理念;另一种约束力来自于正规社会机构的直接管理,相关权限的依据是国家和地区规范医院和医师行为的法律。第三种规范的形式和政府司法部门紧密相关,它在很大程度上是一种间接性的约束力,涉及病人因医疗事故对医生及其投保的责任保险公司所进行的索赔和诉讼。强调了第三种力量,并突出了在医师和医疗行业圈之外的社会力量对医疗活动的指导作用。     

Women in the United States Army

This article addresses the recent increase in the utilization of women in the United States Army. It traces the history of women in the Army from the turn of the twentieth century to the present and recounts research (both published and unpublished) concerning (1) attitudes toward the use of women in the Army, (2) the impact the changing role of women has had on the Army's ability to perform its mission, and (3) the adjustment of women to the Army. Finally, the author speculates about the future of women in the Army.This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the meeting of the Southwest Regional Conference Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, Dallas, April 1978. This paper was written while the author was a Research Scientist at the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not reflect sponsorship or an institutional position of the U.S. Department of Defense or any agency of the U.S. government. The author would like to acknowledge the helpful comments of an anonymous referee.     

Counselling psychology in the United States

Counseling psychology (CP) emerged in the US as the result of the convergence of a number of trends in early applied psychology, a number of social factors, as well as changes in the organizational structure of the American Psychological Association. We offer an overview of the history of counseling psychology in the US, focusing on key events that have helped establish and shape the profession. Struggles over the definition of CP as a specialty and its relations with clinical psychology and professional counseling are discussed, as are matters related to the licensing of CP practitioners, and the profession’s relationships with counseling-related professional organizations. The educational and professional preparation of CPs, the profession’s core values that affect both training in and the practice of counseling psychology, and the settings in which CPs work are briefly described. We close with a discussion of several of the challenges facing CP as it is organized and institutionalized in the US.