THE RHETORICAL USE OF RANDOM SAMPLING: CRAFTING AND COMMUNICATING THE PUBLIC IMAGE OF POLLS AS A SCIENCE (1935–1948)

The scientific pollsters (Archibald Crossley, George H. Gallup, and Elmo Roper) emerged onto the American news media scene in 1935. Much of what they did in the following years (1935–1948) was to promote both the political and scientific legitimacy of their enterprise. They sought to be recognized as the sole legitimate producers of public opinion. In this essay I examine the, mostly overlooked, rhetorical work deployed by the pollsters to publicize the scientific credentials of their polling activities, and the central role the concept of sampling has had in that pursuit. First, they distanced themselves from the failed straw poll by claiming that their sampling methodology based on quotas was informed by science. Second, although in practice they did not use random sampling, they relied on it rhetorically to derive the symbolic benefits of being associated with the “laws of probability.”     

Policy Frames, Metaphorical Reasoning, and Support for Public Policies

This article evaluates the predictive value of a new theory for understanding public support for alternative solutions to policy problems, which we call policy metaphors. A policy metaphor represents a particular form of cognitive framing that makes use of commonly understood social institutions and judgments about their effectiveness to form "archetypes" against which proposed solutions to new policy problems are compared. We test the extent to which both understanding of and preference for particular policy frames predicts the nature and strength of policy choices by a representative sample of the American public. After controlling for factors that past research has shown to be important in understanding public opinion, including general partisan and ideological attitudes, self-interest, political values, and emotions, the cognitive frames specified by the general theory of policy metaphors are shown to strongly predict public support for hypothetical solutions to three different policy problems. These frames also predict support for President Clinton's 1993–94 health care reforms after controlling for those same conventional predictors. Most importantly, we demonstrate that these cognitive frames help constrain the beliefs of even the least politically aware members of the general public. Discussion centers on the implications of this new approach for understanding public opinion.     

"仁"与"未仁"的两难选择--孔、孟、荀评管仲解读

自孔子称管仲“如其仁”,之后的孟、荀却给出了不同的评价,后代儒者就面临诠释管仲之仁与未仁的两难选择。本文即联系诠释中所显现的问题,考察孔、孟、荀何以会给出各自不同的评价,试图还原先秦儒家面对现实管仲时所体现出的评价原则,梳理孔、孟、荀由此而展开的思维理路,并为理解先秦儒家的核心理念及运用原则提供补益。     

Minority influence: The effect of majority reactionaries and defectors,and minority and majority compromisers,upon majority opinion and attraction

The effects of shifting opinions within a group upon majority opinion, communication between members and perceived attractiveness of other members were studied. Each subject perceived himself to be a member of the majority in a group whose opinion was divided 6–2 on an important issue. But later one to three group members changed their vote. Six conditions of change were established: Control, majority reactionary, majority compromise, majority defection (5-3), minority compromise, minority compromise plus majority reactionary. Only majority compromise or defection affected majority opinion (private and public). Majority members were disliked when they deviated from majority opinion, but particularly so when they shifted toward minority opinion. Minority members were liked most when they induced a majority member to compromise (but not defect). Majority communication to minority occurred most when the minority was compromising, but most disagreement with minority opinion was expressed when a majority member had either compromised or defected.     

The "nation's conscience:" assessing bioethics commissions as public forums

As the fifth national bioethics commission has concluded its work and a sixth is currently underway, it is time to step back and consider appropriate measures of success. This paper argues that standard measures of commissions' influence fail to fully assess their role as public forums. From the perspective of democratic theory, a critical dimension of this role is public engagement: the ability of a commission to address the concerns of the general public, to learn how average citizens resolve moral issues in healthcare, and to monitor public opinion on the topics addressed in the commission. Such a public forum role is supported by the critical literature within bioethics, which has deemed some commissions successful, supported more generally by the history of bioethics as a reform discourse that has brought socially important values into the medical domain, and supported more generally still by the example of the great social issues commissions of the 1960s.     

"Scared stiff": catatonia as an evolutionary-based fear response

Catatonia, long viewed as a motor disorder, may be better understood as a fear response, akin to the animal defense strategy tonic immobility (after G. G. Gallup & J. D. Maser, 1977). This proposal, consistent with K. L. Kahlbaum's (1874/1973) original conception, is based on similarities between catatonia and tonic immobility ("death feint") as well as evidence that catatonia is associated with anxiety and agitated depression and responds dramatically to benzodiazepines. It is argued that catatonia originally derived from ancestral encounters with carnivores whose predatory instincts were triggered by movement but is now inappropriately expressed in very different modern threat situations. Found in a wide range of psychiatric and serious medical conditions, catatonia may represent a common "end state" response to feelings of imminent doom and can serve as a template to understand other psychiatric disorders.     

Secular humanism and "scientific psychiatry"

The Council for Secular Humanism identifies Secular Humanism as a "way of thinking and living" committed to rejecting authoritarian beliefs and embracing "individual freedom and responsibility ... and cooperation." The paradigmatic practices of psychiatry are civil commitment and insanity defense, that is, depriving innocent persons of liberty and excusing guilty persons of their crimes: the consequences of both are confinement in institutions ostensibly devoted to the treatment of mental diseases. Black's Law Dictionary states: "Every confinement of the person is an 'imprisonment,' whether it be in a common prison, or in private house, or in the stocks, or even by forcibly detaining one in the public streets." Accordingly, I maintain that Secular Humanism is incompatible with the principles and practices of psychiatry.     

MONKEYS,MIRRORS, AND ME: GORDON GALLUP AND THE STUDY OF SELF‐RECOGNITION

This article explores the work of psychologist Gordon Gallup, Jr., during the 1960s and 1970s on mirror self‐recognition in animals. It shows how Gallup tried to integrate the mental “self‐concept” into an otherwise strictly behaviorist paradigm. By making an argument from material culture, the article demonstrates how Gallup's adoption of a self‐concept is best understood as a product of his sustained analysis of the workings of the mirror as a piece of experimental apparatus. In certain situations, the stimulus properties of the mirror changed dramatically, a shift that Gallup thought legitimated the positing of a self‐concept. For this reason, Gallup supposed he could use a mirror to provide an operationalized concept of the self, that is, produce a definition that was compatible with behaviorist experimental norms. The article argues that behaviorism was more supple and productive than is often assumed, and contained resources that could align it with the “cognitive revolution” to which it is most often opposed.     

ANONYMITY,STRENGTH OF ATTITUDE,AND THE INFLUENCE OF PUBLIC OPINION POLLS

Subjects were given questionnaires asking their responses to six statements on public issues. On some of the issues subjects were highly committed to their own views, while other issues were selected for the subjects' lack of knowledge and commitment. Some subjects were asked to respond anonymously, and others were led to believe that their responses would be made public. Each questionnaire contained a bogus distribution of responses from students at the subjects’ university. Each statement of interest was supported by the bogus majority in one questionnaire form and rejected by it in the other form. Several types of conformity were considered. For the low-commitment issues, subjects were influenced in the direction of the bogus consensus. For the high-commitment issues, the bogus consensus had no significant effect. Implications for understanding the effect of polls on public opinion are discussed.     

Progressive taxation and the subjective well-being of nations

Using data from the Gallup World Poll, we examined whether progressive taxation is associated with increased levels of subjective well-being. Consistent with Rawls's theory of justice, our results showed that progressive taxation was positively associated with the subjective well-being of nations. However, the overall tax rate and government spending were not associated with the subjective well-being of nations. Furthermore, controlling for the wealth of nations and income inequality, we found that respondents living in a nation with more-progressive taxation evaluated their lives as closer to the best possible life and reported having more positive and less negative daily experiences than did respondents living in a nation with less-progressive taxation. Finally, we found that the association between more-progressive taxation and higher levels of subjective well-being was mediated by citizens' satisfaction with public goods, such as education and public transportation.     

Can we measure out a life in coffee spoons?

Public policy decisions in medicine and other fields necessitate careful weighing of choices and consequences. Cost-benefit analyses have been offered as one way to facilitate such decisions. In "Quantifying the value of human life," L. Eugene Arnold asserts that mathematical models such as his offer greater clarity in making public policy decisions than is possible with the "intuitive" or "emotional" approach. In our opinion, problems associated with this quantitative analysis demonstrate a need for caution in applying such mathematical models to public policy decisions....     

Assessing the "evolving standards of decency:" perceptions of capital punishment for juveniles

This study examines whether public opinion parallels recent judicial and statutory changes limiting the applicability of capital sentences to offenders younger than 18 years old. Two hundred and thirty-five undergraduate students were administered a vignette of a capital case and asked to render a sentence of death or life in prison without parole. Results revealed that age of the defendant was not a significant predictor of sentence type; participants sentenced 16- and 17-year-old defendants similarly to 18- and 25-year-old defendants. Therefore, public opinion appears inconsistent with legal and legislative changes to abandon the practice of executing juveniles. Findings also suggested that perceived level of the defendant's responsibility and general opinion about capital sentences significantly predicted sentence type; perceptions of greater responsibility were associated with an increased likelihood of a death sentence. However, participants did not perceive differences in responsibility between juvenile and adult defendants. In addition, participants were more comfortable sentencing defendants to death compared with life in prison.     

Extensions of the lost letter technique to divisive issues of creationism,darwinism, sex education,and gay and lesbian affiliations

Two field studies using 1,004 "lost letters" were designed to test the hypotheses that returned responses would be greater in small towns than from a city, that addressees' affiliation with a group either (1) opposed to physical education in schools, (2) supporting gay and lesbian teachers, or (3) advocating Creationism or Darwinism would reduce the return rate. Of 504 letters "lost" in Study A, 163 (32.3%) were returned in the mail from residents of southeast Louisiana and indicated across 3 addressees and 2 sizes of community, addressees' affiLiations were not associated with returned responses. Community size and addressees' affiliations were associated with significantly different rates of return in the city. Return rates from sites within a city were lower when letters were addressed to an organization which opposed (teaching) health education in the schools than to one supporting daily health education. Of 500 letters "lost" in Study B, 95 (19.0%) were returned from residents of northwest Florida and indicated across 5 addressees and 2 sizes of community, addressees' affiliations were significantly associated with returned responses overall (5 addressees) and in small towns (control, Creationism, Darwinism addressees), but not with community size. Community size and addressees' affiliations were associated with significantly different rates of return in small towns, with returns greater than or equal to those in the city (except for the addressee advocating teaching Darwinism in public schools). The present findings appear to show that applications of the lost letter technique to other divisive social issues are useful in assessing public opinion.     

"Lesbians, gay men, and their parents": a critique of LaSala and the prevailing clinical "wisdom"

This article challenges the popular assumption that coming out to family of origin is important for lesbians and gay men's mental health and couple relationships. First, I present theory emphasizing the unique position of lesbians/gays in families of origin and the significance of "families of choice." Second, I review the quantitative research on social support received by lesbians/gays from family of origin, friends, and other social network sources. Third, I demonstrate how the dominant clinical opinion about coming out to family is based on an unwarranted use of theory developed for heterosexuals and on overgeneralization of findings from studies of white, upper-middle-class, North American lesbians/gays. Fourth, I propose five determinants of lesbian/gay persons' decisions to come out to family-of-origin members. Fifth, I argue that such decisions are constrained by "realistic" costs/benefits in various sociocultural niches rather than being a simple function of individuals' levels of differentiation. Lastly, I offer an expanded contextual stance for the family therapist working with lesbian/gay clients.     

The error of accepting the "theoretical" null hypothesis: the rise, fall, and resurrection of commonsense hypotheses in psychology

When psychologists test a commonsense (CS) hypothesis and obtain no support, they tend to erroneously conclude that the CS belief is wrong. In many such cases it appears, after many years, that the CS hypothesis was valid after all. It is argued that this error of accepting the "theoretical" null hypothesis reflects confusion between the operationalized hypothesis and the theory or generalization that it is designed to test. That is, on the basis of reliable null data one can accept the operationalized null hypothesis (e.g., "A measure of attitude x is not correlated with a measure of behavior y"). In contrast, one cannot generalize from the findings and accept the abstract or theoretical null (e.g., "We know that attitudes do not predict behavior"). The practice of accepting the theoretical null hypothesis hampers research and reduces the trust of the public in psychological research.     

"A Christian, Holy People" Martin Luther on Salvation and the Church

Starting from recent uneasiness with Protestant individualism, this article asks whether Luther's theological insights might help address the unintended cultural consequences of the Reformation. Luther's mature thought defines the church as a tangible "Christian, holy people" within history, constituted by distinctive public practices. This church is necessarily institutionalized: the "universal priesthood" is corporate rather than individual, and cannot be fully realized without ministers acting in persona ecclesiae. Ordered ministry and common priesthood are interdependent and mutually constitutive. Finally, following his central principle that God gives spiritual gifts only through public, bodily means, Luther allows no separation of justifying faith from bodily adherence to the Christian people.     

Most Admired Women and Men: Gallup,Good Housekeeping,and gender

In order to understand how gender roles influence the selection of people who are admired, we analyzed the results of the Most Admired Men and Women polls conducted annually by Gallup and Good Housekeeping. Most Admired Men were more likely than women to have achieved their fame without sponsorship of a well-known family or spouse. However, the proportion of Autonomous women was higher in the 1980s and 1990s than previously. Men were more likely to be admired for their service in the military, politics, religion, and economics; women were more likely to be admired because they belonged to a royal or political family, or because of their work as activists and reformers or in the area of entertainment and culture. A small percentage of both men and women had been the victim of personal tragedy. The great majority of the admired individuals were White Americans. No Hispanics or Native Americans made the lists, and all but one of the Asians were women. In short, both gender and ethnic stereotypes seem to have influenced the choice of Most Admired Men and Women.     

Gay marriage affiliation and location in return of lost letters: reply to Waugh, Plake, and Rienzi (2000)

Reinspection of Waugh, Plake, and Rienzi's 2000 data allowed for several additional analyses. Statistical confirmation was found for no more negative attitudes toward gay marriage as measured by returned responses among churchgoers than among the general public. Confirmation was also found for their previous conclusion that the putative gay marriage controversy among Christian church attendees would be greater than among the general public, but for reasons different from those they proposed. Finally, it is argued that the limitations for the lost letter technique in "prohibiting fine distinctions" is not always correct because their analysis of one research question seemed not too subtle a distinction for the technique.     

Liberalism, legal moralism and moral disagreement

According to "legal moralism" it is part of law's proper role to "enforce morality as such". I explore the idea that legal moralism runs afoul of morality itself: there are good moral reasons not to require by law all that there is nevertheless good moral reason to do. I suggest that many such reasons have broad common-sense appeal and could be appreciated even in a society in which everyone completely agreed about what morality requires. But I also critique legal moralism from the special perspective of liberal political justice. Liberalism requires that citizens who disagree with one another on a number of morally significant matters nevertheless coexist and cooperate within a political framework of basic rights protections. When it comes to working out the most basic terms of their political association, citizens are expected to address one another within the limits of what Rawls has called "public reason". Critics of liberalism claim that this is an essentially a-moral (or expedient) attempt to evade substantive moral issues--such as the moral status of the fetus. I argue, on the contrary, that liberalism's emphasis on public reason is itself grounded in very deep--though (suitably) "non-comprehensive"--moral considerations.