On fairness and learning agents in a bargaining model with uncertainty

The emergence of fair divisions in a repeated bargaining game is investigated in a computational model. Individuals of human societies often appeal to some norm of fairness in situations where an agreement over the division of a surplus is required. The employed framework consists of players alternating offers that describe possible ways to share a certain commodity. The players are allowed a limited number of offers to reach an agreement; if they fail to agree, the player who made the first offer, the lucky player, wins the whole lot at stake. Uncertainty is introduced in the process by randomly choosing the lucky player at the beginning of each iteration. In the experiments, the players acquired strategies by employing a variant of Q-learning, a reinforcement learning algorithm. Experiments were performed with different configurations of utility functions on the players’ preferences in taking actions in risky situations. Analysis of the results shows that the game theoretical model of a single shot of the bargaining game used in the experiments closely matches the outcomes obtained in the simulated framework, despite the differences in the quality of the players, who are assumed to be fully rational in the theoretical model. Learning agents that are timid toward risky situations manage to acquire strategies that lead to fair outcomes when playing against each other, but find themselves in a disadvantageous position when confronting bolder types.     

What individuals believe they can and cannot do: explorations of realistic and unrealistic control beliefs

We examined construct validity and implications of scales that assess perceived control over controllable events (realistic control belief) and perceived control over uncontrollable events (unrealistic control belief). We found that people high in unrealistic control belief are less likely to discriminate between controllable and uncontrollable situations and to distort task outcomes so as to make them appear more favorable (more under control). We also found that people high in realistic control belief are more likely to assume responsibility for past mistakes. In additional studies on coping and health risk behavior, higher realistic control belief was related to direct engagement with the stressor and to less risky sexual behavior; higher unrealistic control belief was related to less emotional processing and to more risky sexual behavior. The results demonstrate a need to discriminate between the two types of control beliefs.     

The effects of mood on managerial risk perceptions: exploring affect and the dimensions of risk.

The effects of managerial mood on situational risk perceptions were tested among 85 managers from a variety of organizations, industries, and positions in Singapore. A risk-assessment scenario was developed that systematically varied the risk dimensions of outcome uncertainty, potential gains and losses, situational framing, and personal expectations. Negative, neutral, and positive moods were induced by having managers recall and describe work events. As affective state became more positive, managers perceived situational framing as more positive, and their beliefs that they could influence risky outcomes increased. Additionally, positive affect increased the likelihood that people who perceived situations as risky would select riskier courses of action.     

任务框架、损益值大小对自恋者风险偏好的影响

以234名大学生为被试,探讨了任务框架、损益值大小对显性/隐性自恋者风险偏好的影响。结果表明：(1)框架效应较稳定的出现在中等风险水平情境下,且在大损益值条件下更易出现。(2)在获益框架下,被试为小金额决策更冒险,在损失框架下,则为大金额决策更冒险。(3)在损失框架下,高显性自恋者比低显性自恋者更为冒险,在获益框架下,高隐性自恋者比低隐性自恋者更为保守;高隐性自恋者的风险偏好受到任务框架和损益值大小的共同影响。     

The Effects of Mood on Managerial Risk Perceptions: Exploring Affect and the Dimensions of Risk

Abstract

The effects of managerial mood on situational risk perceptions were tested among 85 managers from a variety of organizations, industries, and positions in Singapore. A risk-assessment scenario was developed that systematically varied the risk dimensions of outcome uncertainty, potential gains and losses, situational framing, and personal expectations. Negative, neutral, and positive moods were induced by having managers recall and describe work events. As affective state became more positive, managers perceived situational framing as more positive, and their beliefs that they could influence risky outcomes increased. Additionally, positive affect increased the likelihood that people who perceived situations as risky would select riskier courses of action.     

Contingent application of the cancellation editing operation: the role of semantic relatedness between risky outcomes

This article presents findings on the restructuring component of the decision process. Two experiments are described employing hypothetical vacation choice dilemmas. The aim was to explore the conditions under which outcomes common to two risky prospects with the same probabilities of occurrence are or are not cancelled and how consequent decisions are influenced. The design of the options presented to participants was based on pilot work to establish appropriate contexts. The key independent variable was the semantic relatedness between outcomes of the same risky prospect. The main finding was that the participants did not cancel the outcome shared by two prospects when it was semantically related to another outcome within the same prospect. In this case, the prospect with greater risk was chosen significantly more frequently in comparison to when the common outcome was unrelated to other outcomes. An interpretation of the findings is presented in terms of contingent editing processes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The "Big Win" and Resistance to Extinction When Gambling

One hypothesis for the reason a person might become a pathological gambler is that the individual initially experiences a big win, which creates a fallacious expectation of winning, which may then lead to persistent gambling despite suffering large losses. Although this hypothesis has been around for several decades, only one controlled empirical study has addressed it, and that study reported null results. In the present experiment, the authors tested the "big win" hypothesis by having 4 groups of participants with little to no experience gambling play a computer-simulated slot machine for credits that were exchangeable for cash. One group experienced a large win on the very 1st play. Another experienced a large win on the 5th play. A 3rd group experienced 2 small wins on the 2nd and 5th plays. No other winning outcomes were programmed. The 4th group never experienced a win. The authors observed a significant effect of group. Participants who experienced a large win on the 1st play quit playing the simulation earlier than participants who experienced a large win on the 5th play. These results appear to question the "big win" as an explanation for pathological gambling. They are more consistent with a behavioral theory of gambling behavior. The present study should also promote the use of laboratory-based research to test long-standing hypotheses in the gambling literature.     

Disentangling Psychological Sources of Overpricing in Anticommons Dilemmas: Strategic Incentives,Endowment Effects,and Interdependence of Outcomes

Anticommons are a special kind of mixed‐motive dilemma in which negative effects for society are caused by the excessive use of exclusion rights. In two fully incentivized experiments on trading goods with risky prospects, we disentangle three psychological sources that have been suggested to contribute to increased pricing in anticommons dilemmas: the effects of strategic incentives for overpricing, endowment effects, and interdependence of outcomes. Our results show that pricing of risky prospects in the anticommons is only marginally influenced by endowment status, whereas participants readily respond to incentives to overprice and to the interdependence of outcomes. Endowment effects are reduced both when strategic incentives to overprice are provided and when outcomes of subjects become interdependent. As a result, endowment effects for risky prospects are strongly reduced or even disappear completely in anticommons dilemmas. Our results render support for an interaction model instead of an additive effect model in which both incentives and endowment effects would drive up pricing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The "big win" and resistance to extinction when gambling

One hypothesis for the reason a person might become a pathological gambler is that the individual initially experiences a big win, which creates a fallacious expectation of winning, which may then lead to persistent gambling despite suffering large losses. Although this hypothesis has been around for several decades, only one controlled empirical study has addressed it, and that study reported null results. In the present experiment, the authors tested the "big win" hypothesis by having 4 groups of participants with little to no experience gambling play a computer-simulated slot machine for credits that were exchangeable for cash. One group experienced a large win on the very 1st play. Another experienced a large win on the 5th play. A 3rd group experienced 2 small wins on the 2nd and 5th plays. No other winning outcomes were programmed. The 4th group never experienced a win. The authors observed a significant effect of group. Participants who experienced a large win on the 1st play quit playing the simulation earlier than participants who experienced a large win on the 5th play. These results appear to question the "big win" as an explanation for pathological gambling. They are more consistent with a behavioral theory of gambling behavior. The present study should also promote the use of laboratory-based research to test long-standing hypotheses in the gambling literature.     

Why do they do it? Affective motivators in adolescents' decisions to participate in risk behaviours

Affective motivators have been targeted in many theories as playing a critical role in adolescents' decisions to participate in a variety of risky behaviours that may have life-altering consequences. In this study, we examined the role of several of these affective motivators across low and high experience groups to determine their perceived influence on the desire to participate in each of five risky behaviours (drinking alcohol, using drugs, having sex, smoking cigarettes, and skipping school). The affective motivators included those that: (a) promote risky behaviours by enhancing pleasant affective states (sensation seeking, social/emotional), (b) promote risky behaviours by reducing or avoiding negative affective states (negative emotions, tension reduction), and (c) deter risky behaviours by avoiding anticipated regret (e.g. of harming future). Results showed that the perceived motivational strength of the affective goals differed substantially between low and high experience groups and across the different risky behaviours. Adolescents with less experience were much more focused on avoiding the negative affective consequences associated with regretting unfavourable future outcomes. In contrast, adolescents with more experience participating in a risky behaviour held stronger beliefs that participation in the behaviour could both enhance positive and reduce negative affective states. We describe how the perceived importance of these motives varies across the risky behaviours, and offer insights into the likely motivational changes that occur as an adolescent moves from no experience to chronic experience engaging in risky behaviours.     

殊化信任与泛化信任在人际信任行为路径模型中的作用

该研究探讨不同社会情景下,泛化信任、殊化信任以及可信任性知觉等对信任行为起作用的理论模型。223名工人被试平均年龄24岁。用结构方程模型中的路径分析验证该模型,结果表明,各种拟合指标十分理想。三种交往情景下的人际信任路径模型之间的异同主要表现在：（1）殊化信任在所有情景下对信任行为都有直接而显著的作用;（2）泛化信任则只在与熟人和陌生人交往时才起作用;（3）与目标人物的关系越疏远,对他们作出信任行为时所需要的心理资源也越多。     

Someone to blame: When identifying a victim decreases helping

People's willingness to contribute (WTC) more resources to save the lives of identified victims than to save anonymous or statistical victims is known as the identifiable victim effect. Previous research suggested that the emotional arousal (empathy and distress) toward a single identified victim is a major source of the effect. However, identification of a single target may also strengthen negative perceptions (like blame) in situations where the target is perceived as responsible for his/her plight. In five studies (collecting real contributions and hypothetical WTC) we show that identifying a person in need may increase or decrease helping depending on the perceived responsibility of the victim for his/her own plight. Our results suggest that in cases when it is possible to blame the victim, identification of a single target enhances negative perceptions of the victim and decreases helping, especially when the perceiver holds strong beliefs in a just world for others.     

Worth the risk? Fear of being single and willingness to make risky health decisions in sex and dating contexts

Does fear of being single (FOBS) predict risky health behaviors when such behavior could promote pursuit of a romantic connection? Study 1 tested general tendencies toward taking health risks associated with FOBS. Study 2 tested how those with stronger FOBS navigated romantic versus non-romantic risk behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. Study 3 extended the test of risky behavior beyond the pandemic to test whether FOBS was associated with willingness to engage in risky sexual behavior. Despite nonsignificant associations with taking health risks more generally, FOBS was associated with greater willingness to engage in risky behaviors in dating contexts, particularly when considering their willingness to settle for less in relationships. This research provides novel insight into dating choices associated with stronger FOBS and how willingness to settle predicts risky health behavior when it could appeal to romantic prospects.     

The Effects of Decision Outcome Dispersion Upon Organizational Decision Making

The effects of varying decision outcome dispersion on organizational decision making were investigated under individual and group decision making conditions. Thirty-six female and pg]36 male subjects made decisions for organizational decision scenarios in which outcomes affected primarily the decision maker, people other than the decision maker, or a group of which the decision maker was a member. Subjects rated their levels of perceived risk and confidence in their decisions and made decisions within a simulated context of either a small or a large organization. Results indicated that subjects perceived significantly less risk and more confidence in their decisions when outcomes affected primarily themselves rather than others regardless of whether the decisions were made individually or by a group. Males perceived their decisions as significantly more risky than females. Induced organizational size did not significantly influence decision making.

     

Affective components in training to ride safely using a moped simulator

The aim of the present research was to compare different methods of training for safe moped use, especially focusing on physiological reactions during risky experiences. By recording skin conductance response (SCR), we investigated whether training that requires active riding behavior in different risky situations through the use of the Honda Riding Training (HRT) simulator leads to different physiological reactivity, which, in turn, might lead to better learning outcomes. Results indicated that participants who rode actively through the HRT showed higher percentages of SCRs than participants who simply observed risky road scenes to spot hazards. SCR percentage was higher in scenes with no accident. Overall, SCR amplitude was greater when accidents occurred than in scenes with no accidents. Implications for the effectiveness of inexperienced riders training with riding simulators were also discussed.     

Neural correlates of social perception on response bias

Accurate person perception is crucial in social decision-making. One of the central elements in successful social perception is the ability to understand another’s response bias; this is because the same behavior can represent different inner states depending on whether other people are yea-sayers or naysayers. In the present study, we have tried to investigate how the internal biases of others are perceived. Using a multi-trial learning paradigm, perceivers made predictions about a target’s responses to various suggested activities and then received feedback for each prediction trial-by-trial. Our hypotheses were that (1) the internal decision criterion of the targets would be realized through repeated experiences, and (2) due to positive–negative asymmetry, yea-sayers would be recognized more gradually than naysayers through the probabilistic integration of repeated experiences. To find neural evidence that tracks probabilistic integration when forming person knowledge on response biases, we employed a model-based fMRI with a State-Space Model. We discovered that person knowledge about yea-sayers modulated several brain regions, including caudate nucleus, DLPFC, hippocampus, etc. Moreover, when person knowledge was updated with incorrect performance feedback, brain regions including the caudate nucleus, DLPFC, dmPFC, and TPJ were also involved. There were overlapping regions for both processes, caudate nucleus and DLPFC, suggesting that these regions take crucial roles in forming person knowledge with repeated feedback, while reflecting acquired information up to the current prediction.     

心理账户的非替代性及其运算规则

心理账户理论(Mental accounting Theory)由萨勒(Thaler)教授提出,他认为：小到个体、家庭,大到企业集团,都有或明确或潜在的心理账户系统。心理账户有两个最本质的特征：一是非替代性;二是具有不同于经济学的特定运算规则。本文分析了心理帐户非替代性的三种表现,从值函数,得与失的编码规则和参照点效应探讨了心理帐户的特定运算规则。这对解释人的非理性经济行为有重要价值。