Maximizing,choice freedom,and duration judgments in choice making

This paper examines (a) whether people are less accurate in judging choice time as choice tasks involve more choice options, more choice information, or a combination of both and (b) whether people with a higher tendency to look for the best option in choice making (maximizers) have less accurate duration judgments of choice time as compared to people who are more easily settling for a choice outcome that is satisfactory (satisficers). A multilevel analysis is used to explore the relationships of interest using data collected through a series of choice tasks. In general, the results suggest that people seem to misjudge time durations when making choices. Moreover, empirical evidence demonstrates that people with an outspoken tendency to maximize in choice making do not differ significantly in estimating choice time accurately as compared to people who experience almost no need to maximize.     

Some probabilistic models of best, worst, and best-worst choices

Over the past decade or so, a choice design in which a person is asked to select both the best and the worst option in an available set of options has been gaining favor over more traditional designs, such as where the person is asked, for instance, to: select the best option; select the worst option; rank the options; or rate the options. In this paper, we develop theoretical results for three overlapping classes of probabilistic models for best, worst, and best-worst choices, with the models in each class proposing specific ways in which such choices might be related. The models in these three classes are called random ranking and random utility, joint and sequential, and ratio scale. We include some models that belong to more than one class, with the best known being the maximum-difference (maxdiff) model, summarize estimation issues related to the models, and formulate a number of open theoretical problems.     

Data, model, conclusion, doing it again

This paper explores the robustness of conclusions from a statistical model against variations in model choice (rather than variations in random sampling and random assignment to treatments, which are the usual variations covered by inferential statistics). After the problem formulation in section 1, section 2 presents an example from Box and Tiao in which variation in parent distribution is modeled for a one sample location problem. An adaptive Bayesian procedure permits to use a weighted mixture of parent distributions rather than choosing just one, such as a normal or a uniform distribution.In section 3 similar considerations are applied to an event history model for the influence of education and gender on age at first marriage, but here the conclusions are hardly influenced by the choice of the duration distribution. In section 4 a brief discussion of model choice in factor analysis and structural equation models is followed by a more elaborate treatment of the choice of integer valued slopes for item response functions in the OPLM model which is an extension of the Rasch model. A modest simulation study suggests that Adaptive Bayesian Modeling with a mixture of sets of slopes works better than fixing one set of postulated slopes.The paper concludes with some remarks on the roles and sources of prior distributions followed by a short epilogue which argues that simultaneous consideration of a class of models for the same data is sometimes superior to exclusively analyzing the data under one specific model chosen from such a class.This article is based on the Presidential Address Ivo W. Molenaar gave on June 20, 1998 at the 1998 Annual Meeting of the Psychometric Society held at the University of Illinois in Champaign, Illinois. Thanks is given to John Wiley & Sons and George C. Tiao for granting permission to reprint three figures from the book George C. Tiao wrote with George E. P. Box titled Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis.—EditorThanks are due to Anne Boomsma, Jeffrey Hoogland, Mark Huisman, Tom Snijders, Marijtje Van Duijn, and Norman Verhelst for suggesting improvements and/or assisting with data analyses.     

Differences in delay, not ratios, control choice in concurrent chains

In two experiments, pigeons were trained with concurrent-chains schedules, wherein responding to equal initial links measured preference between variable-interval terminal links. Absolute terminal-link duration was varied by keeping constant the difference between the terminal-link delays and forcing their ratio to change. Delay-reduction theory scales value relative to a common temporal context and requires that delay differences control choice. Thus, preference should remain invariant. Most competing accounts, including the matching law and a strong form of Weber's law, require that preference vary with the delay ratio. Experiment 1 employed standard concurrent chains, in which terminal-link position and color were confounded. Although average preference remained constant, individual preferences were highly variable and inconsistent, possibly due to carryover of position biases across conditions. In an attempt to reduce variability, Experiment 2 used a modified concurrent-chains procedure. Preference at different terminal-link durations was assessed simultaneously to prevent order effects, and terminal-link position was alternated randomly across trials to minimize the impact of position biases. In Experiment 2, both individual and mean preferences showed the constant-difference invariance. Overall, choice was controlled by terminal-link differences, not ratios.     

Personal,Interpersonal, and Situational Influences on Behavioral Self-Handicapping

ABSTRACT

This study explored the combined effects of personal factors (participant sex), interpersonal factors (experimenter sex), and situational factors (performance feedback) on two forms of behavioral self-handicapping. Participants received non-contingent success or failure feedback concerning their performance on a novel ability and were given the opportunity to self-handicap before performing again. Behavioral self-handicapping took the form of (a) exerting less practice effort (practice) or (b) choosing a performance-debilitating tape (choice). Men practiced least after failure feedback and chose a debilitating tape if they were interacting with a female experimenter. Generally, across all participants in both choice and practice conditions, high performance concern and the presence of a male experimenter led to the most self-handicapping. Results are interpreted in terms of self-presentational concerns that emphasize a desire to impress or an awareness of the female or male experimenter's acceptance of self-handicappers.     

The importance of choice in therapy: From the perspective of a,hopefully flexible,CBT practitioner

The main purpose of this paper is to present a personal account of my therapeutic journey and to show how my practice of CBT is informed not only by orientation-specific variables (e.g. emphases on 1) attitude; 2) perpetuation of disturbance as opposed to its acquisition; 3) specificity; 4) the development of client self-help skills; and 5) homework), but by more general, trans-theoretical variables (e.g. rooting therapy in the bonds, views, goals and tasks domains of the working alliance and dealing effectively with threats to this alliance). In doing so, I hope to show that when practised well CBT draws upon general principles that span different therapeutic approaches as well as on ideas specific to CBT.     

自我框架、风险认知和风险选择

对行为决策中“框架效应”(Framing Effect)的研究进行了拓展：探讨了自我框架对风险决策的影响及其机制。面对运用图示方法表示的管理,健康,及投资方面的风险决策问题,参与者自主地选择对方案的描述（自我框架）。研究有四个主要发现：1）自我框架对风险选择的效应部分显著,而且对风险选择的影响方向因情境的不同而不同;2）机会威胁认知是自我框架效应的一个中介变量;3）自我框架在情绪语气上的差异对风险决策有显著影响：决策者对一个备选方案（确定性或风险性方案）相对于另一个备选方案的自我描述的情绪语气越积极正面,这个方案被选择的可能性越大;4）决策者的机会-威胁认知是这一自我框架效应的部分中介变量。也就是说,对备选方案的自我描述语气作为一种对决策信息的编码影响了风险（机会和威胁）认知,进而影响决策者的风险偏好和选择     

A Longitudinal Study of the Relationships Among Job Search Self-Efficacy, Job Interviews, and Employment Outcomes

This study investigates the relationships among job search self-efficacy beliefs, number of job interviews participated in, and job search outcomes using data collected from graduating college job seekers at multiple points in their respective job searches. Results indicate that job search self-efficacy is positively related to number of total offers and number of offers from a preferred employer. Consistent with our hypothesis, job search self-efficacy beliefs moderate the relationship between number of interviews and number of offers, indicating that highly confident job seekers were more efficient in converting interviews into job offers.     

Matching, undermatching, and overmatching in studies of choice

Almost all of 103 sets of data from 23 different studies of choice conformed closely to the equation: log (B(1)/B(2)) = a log (r(1)/r(2)) + log b, where B(1) and B(2) are either numbers of responses or times spent at Alternatives 1 and 2, r(1) and r(2) are the rates of reinforcement obtained from Alternatives 1 and 2, and a and b are empirical constants. Although the matching relation requires the slope a to equal 1.0, the best-fitting values of a frequently deviated from this. For B(1) and B(2) measured as numbers of responses, a tended to fall short of 1.0 (undermatching). For B(1) and B(2) measured as times, a fell to both sides of 1.0, with the largest mode at about 1.0. Those experiments that produced values of a for both responses and time revealed only a rough correspondence between the two values; a was often noticeably larger for time. Statistical techniques for assessing significance of a deviation of a from 1.0 suggested that values of a between .90 and 1.11 can be considered good approximations to matching. Of the two experimenters who contributed the most data, one generally found undermatching, while the other generally found matching. The difference in results probably arises from differences in procedure. The procedural variations that lead to undermatching appear to be those that produce (a) asymmetrical pausing that favors the poorer alternative; (b) systematic temporal variation in preference that favors the poorer alternative; and (c) patterns of responding that involve changing over between alternatives or brief bouts at the alternatives.     

Choice,Rating, and Ranking: Framing Effects with Different Response Modes

In a typical risky choice framing task, people have to choose among two options, which are either positively or negatively framed. Choices in the two framing conditions are then compared. However, different preferences between the conditions can be due to changes in the evaluation of the single constituent options or due to specific processes triggered by the choice task. In order to clarify the source of the framing effect, we investigate the effect with different response modes: choice, rating, and ranking. The rating and ranking findings indicate that what is commonly called a risky choice framing effect is actually a framing effect that changes the evaluation of only the riskless option, although there is little or no effect on the risky option. According to these findings, risky choice framing might be construed as a process of attribute framing, which is independent of risk preference in choice contexts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variation, repetition, and choice

Experiment 1 investigated the controlling properties of variability contingencies on choice between repeated and variable responding. Pigeons were exposed to concurrent-chains schedules with two alternatives. In the REPEAT alternative, reinforcers in the terminal link depended on a single sequence of four responses. In the VARY alternative, a response sequence in the terminal link was reinforced only if it differed from the n previous sequences (lag criterion). The REPEAT contingency generated low, constant levels of sequence variation whereas the VARY contingency produced levels of sequence variation that increased with the lag criterion. Preference for the REPEAT alternative tended to increase directly with the degree of variation required for reinforcement. Experiment 2 examined the potential confounding effects in Experiment 1 of immediacy of reinforcement by yoking the interreinforcer intervals in the REPEAT alternative to those in the VARY alternative. Again, preference for REPEAT was a function of the lag criterion. Choice between varying and repeating behavior is discussed with respect to obtained behavioral variability, probability of reinforcement, delay of reinforcement, and switching within a sequence.     

The Spreading of Alternatives: Is it the Perceived Choice or Actual Choice that Changes our Preference?

After making a difficult choice, the preference rating of a chosen alternative tends to increase, and the rating of the rejected one tends to decrease. Such a change of preference is called spreading of alternatives. It is unclear whether it is the choice itself, or the choice one believes one has made that leads to preference change. Using a facial attractiveness task, we addressed this question by setting up an experiment to measure how the actual choice and perceived choice changed the preference. In the current study, participants first rated the attractiveness of female faces, and then made a choice between two faces that they had rated the same, after which, they re‐rated the female faces. Notably, in the re‐rating session, participants were given either veridical, false, or no feedback about their prior choice. This way, we were able to measure the functions of actual choice and perceived choice in rating changes. Results showed that both actual action and perceived action exert significant influence in shaping preference. The veridical feedback enhanced the spreading of alternatives effect whereas the false feedback weakened this effect, indicating that preference can be modulated by explicit manipulation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic models of set-dependent and attribute-level best-worst choice

We characterize a class of probabilistic choice models where the choice probabilities depend on two scales, one with a value for each available option and the other with a value for the set of available options. Then, we develop similar results for a task in which a person is presented with a profile of attributes, each at a pre-specified level, and chooses the best or the best and the worst of those attribute-levels. The latter design is an important variant on previous designs using best-worst choice to elicit preference information, and there is various evidence that it yields reliable interpretable data. Nonetheless, the data from a single such task cannot yield separate measures of the “importance” of an attribute and the “utility” of an attribute-level. We discuss various empirical designs, involving more than one task of the above general type, that may allow such separation of importance and utility.     

Pre-Entry Expectations,Attitudes, and Intentions to Join Predict Military Tenure

The objective of this study was to examine pre-entry expectations, attitudes, and intentions as predictors of tenure among military members. Data from nationally representative (U.S.) samples of youth on attitudes toward military service, expectations about the effect of joining the military on quality of life, and intentions to join the military were linked to tenure among those who later joined the military as adults. Results from survival analyses indicate that those who initially had no desire to join the military and did not expect military service to have positive effects on their quality of life, but ultimately joined the military nonetheless, tended to have shorter military careers. Explanations for these findings are offered along with implications for military staffing.     

关注降压药物的选择，促使更有效的降压达标

我国成人高血压患病率高达18.8%,全国有高血压患者约1.6亿。合理的药物治疗是降压达标的主要措施,如何进行正确选择成为摆在我们面前的难题。目前,降压药物主要包括利尿剂、β受体阻断剂、血管紧张素转换酶抑制剂、血管紧张素Ⅱ受体拮抗剂、钙拮抗剂和α受体阻断剂6类。因降压治疗的收益主要来自于降压本身,为了提高降压达标率及高血压患者的用药依从性,目前多主张低剂量联合治疗。     

Sex differences in 1-, 3-, and 5-year-olds' toy-choice in a structured play-session

This cross-sectional study investigated toy-choice in 38 one-year-old, 33 three-year-old, and 35 five-year-old children, who could choose between 10 different toys (four feminine, four masculine, and two neutral) in a structured play-session. The children played alone for 7 minutes and together with their accompanying parent for another 7 minutes (play-status). The results showed that girls and boys chose different toys from as early as the age of one year (Mdn = 12 months). These sex differences were found at all three ages. In contradiction to earlier studies, our results showed that feminine toys became less interesting for both girls and boys with increasing age. The present study showed no consistent effects of play-status. This study contributes to the knowledge of how early behavioral sex differences can be observed, how these differences develop, and it also raises questions concerning what sex differences stem from.     

确定、不确定及风险状态下选择反转:“齐当别”选择方式的解释

应用广义“弱优势”（weak dominance）模型检验确定、不确定及风险状态下的选择反转现象。该模型将人们的二择一选择行为描述为一种搜寻一备择方案在主观上优越于另一备择方案的过程。即：在甲方案在某一维度上优越于乙方案,而乙方案在另一维度上优越于甲方案的情况下,为了利用“弱优势”（weak dominance）原则达成决策,人们必须在一维度上将两者间较小的差异人为地“齐同”掉,而在另一维度上将“辨别”两者间较大的差异作为最终选择的依据。因此,在每次选择时,如果不认为最大的差异都是来自同一维度,就会导致选择反转。此项研究设计了一“匹配”任务,并借此检验,在不同的决策状态下,判断两备择方案在各维度上的差异是否能预测人们的重复选择变异。总的测试-再测试结果支持“齐当别”选择方式的解释。其发现表明：重复选择之所以可能是一致的,并不是因为每次都认定被选中的备择方案具有最大值,而是因为每次选择都认定最大的差异来自一固定的维度。     

Strategy Selection in Risky Choice: The Impact of Numeracy,Affect, and Cross‐Cultural Differences

Real‐world decisions often involve options with outcomes that are uncertain and trigger strong affect (e.g., side effects of a drug). Previous work suggests that when choosing among affect‐rich risky prospects, people are rather insensitive to probability information, potentially compromising decision quality. We modeled the strategies of less and more numerate participants in the United States and in Germany when choosing between affect‐rich prospects and between monetarily equivalent affect‐poor prospects. Using large probabilistic national samples (n = 1047 from the United States and Germany), Study 1 showed that compared with more numerate participants, less numerate participants chose the normatively better option (i.e., the one with the higher expected value) less often, guessed more often, and relied more on a simple risk‐minimizing strategy. U.S. participants—although less numerate—selected the normatively better option more frequently and were more consistent across affect‐rich and affect‐poor problems than the German participants. Using a targeted quota sample (n = 118 from Germany), Study 2 indicated that although both more and less numerate participants paid less attention to probability information in affect‐rich than in affect‐poor problems, the two numeracy groups relied on different outcome‐based heuristics: More numerate participants often followed the minimax heuristic, and less numerate participants the affect heuristic. The observed strategy differences suggest that attempts to improve decision‐making need to take into account individual differences in numeracy as well as cultural‐specific experiences in making trade‐offs. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Choice, changeover, and travel

Since foraging in nature can be viewed as instrumental behavior, choice between sources of food, known as “patches,” can be viewed as choice between instrumental response alternatives. Whereas the travel required to change alternatives deters changeover in nature, the changeover delay (COD) usually deters changeover in the laboratory. In this experiment, pigeons were exposed to laboratory choice situations, concurrent variable-interval schedules, that were standard except for the introduction of a travel requirement for changeover. As the travel requirement increased, rate of changeover decreased and preference for a favored alternative strengthened. When the travel requirement was small, the relations between choice and relative reinforcement revealed the usual tendencies toward matching and undermatching. When the travel requirement was large, strong overmatching occurred. These results, together with those from experiments in which changeover was deterred by punishment or a fixed-ratio requirement, deviate from the matching law, even when a correction is made for cost of changeover. If one accepted an argument that the COD is analogous to travel, the results suggest that the norm in choice relations would be overmatching. This overmatching, however, might only be the sign of an underlying strategy approximating optimization.     

IMPULSIVITY IN STUDENTS WITH SERIOUS EMOTIONAL DISTURBANCE: THE INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF REINFORCER RATE,DELAY, AND QUALITY

We conducted two studies extending basic matching research on self-control and impulsivity to the investigation of choices of students diagnosed as seriously emotionally disturbed. In Study 1 we examined the interaction between unequal rates of reinforcement and equal versus unequal delays to reinforcer access on performance of concurrently available sets of math problems. The results of a reversal design showed that when delays to reinforcer access were the same for both response alternatives, the time allocated to each was approximately proportional to obtained reinforcement. When the delays to reinforcer access differed between the response alternatives, there was a bias toward the response alternative and schedule with the lower delays, suggesting impulsivity (i.e., immediate reinforcer access overrode the effects of rate of reinforcement). In Study 2 we examined the interactive effects of reinforcer rate, quality, and delay. Conditions involving delayed access to the high-quality reinforcers on the rich schedule (with immediate access to low-quality reinforcers earned on the lean schedule) were alternated with immediate access to low-quality reinforcers on the rich schedule (with delayed access to high-quality reinforcers on the lean schedule) using a reversal design. With 1 student, reinforcer quality overrode the effects of both reinforcer rate and delay to reinforcer access. The other student tended to respond exclusively to the alternative associated with immediate access to reinforcers. The studies demonstrate a methodology based on matching theory for determining influential dimensions of reinforcers governing individuals' choices.