Capturing Context-Related Change in Emotional Dynamics via Fixed Moderated Time Series Analysis

Much of recent affect research relies on intensive longitudinal studies to assess daily emotional experiences. The resulting data are analyzed with dynamic models to capture regulatory processes involved in emotional functioning. Daily contexts, however, are commonly ignored. This may not only result in biased parameter estimates and wrong conclusions, but also ignores the opportunity to investigate contextual effects on emotional dynamics. With fixed moderated time series analysis, we present an approach that resolves this problem by estimating context-dependent change in dynamic parameters in single-subject time series models. The approach examines parameter changes of known shape and thus addresses the problem of observed intra-individual heterogeneity (e.g., changes in emotional dynamics due to observed changes in daily stress). In comparison to existing approaches to unobserved heterogeneity, model estimation is facilitated and different forms of change can readily be accommodated. We demonstrate the approach's viability given relatively short time series by means of a simulation study. In addition, we present an empirical application, targeting the joint dynamics of affect and stress and how these co-vary with daily events. We discuss potentials and limitations of the approach and close with an outlook on the broader implications for understanding emotional adaption and development.     

At the Frontiers of Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data: Dynamic Structural Equation Models for the Affective Measurements from the COGITO Study

With the growing popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques and software options for such data are also expanding rapidly. Here we use dynamic multilevel modeling, as it is incorporated in the new dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) toolbox in Mplus, to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of two samples of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We use composite scores of positive and negative affect and apply a multilevel vector autoregressive model to allow for individual differences in means, autoregressions, and cross-lagged effects. Then we extend the model to include random residual variances and covariance, and finally we investigate whether prior depression affects later depression scores through the random effects of the daily diary measures. We end with discussing several urgent—but mostly unresolved—issues in the area of dynamic multilevel modeling.     

Explained Variance and Intraclass Correlation in a Two-Level AR(1) Model

The total variance of a first-order autoregressive AR(1) time series is well known in time series literature. However, despite the increased use and interest in two-level AR(1) models, an equation for the total variance of these models does not exist. This paper presents an approximation of this total variance. It will be used to compute the unexplained and explained variance at each level of the model, the proportion of explained variance, and the intraclass correlation (ICC). The use of these variances and the ICC will be illustrated using an example concerning structured diary data about the positive affect of 96 married women.     

A Comparison of Inverse-Wishart Prior Specifications for Covariance Matrices in Multilevel Autoregressive Models

Multilevel autoregressive models are especially suited for modeling between-person differences in within-person processes. Fitting these models with Bayesian techniques requires the specification of prior distributions for all parameters. Often it is desirable to specify prior distributions that have negligible effects on the resulting parameter estimates. However, the conjugate prior distribution for covariance matrices—the Inverse-Wishart distribution—tends to be informative when variances are close to zero. This is problematic for multilevel autoregressive models, because autoregressive parameters are usually small for each individual, so that the variance of these parameters will be small. We performed a simulation study to compare the performance of three Inverse-Wishart prior specifications suggested in the literature, when one or more variances for the random effects in the multilevel autoregressive model are small. Our results show that the prior specification that uses plug-in ML estimates of the variances performs best. We advise to always include a sensitivity analysis for the prior specification for covariance matrices of random parameters, especially in autoregressive models, and to include a data-based prior specification in this analysis. We illustrate such an analysis by means of an empirical application on repeated measures data on worrying and positive affect.     

Model specification search using a genetic algorithm with factor reordering for a simple structure factor analysis model

Abstract:  Many techniques for automated model specification search based on numerical indices have been proposed, but no single decisive method has yet been determined. In the present article, the performance and features of the model specification search method using a genetic algorithm (GA) were verified. A GA is a robust and simple metaheuristic algorithm with great searching power. While there has already been some research applying metaheuristics to the model fitting task, we focus here on the search for a simple structure factor analysis model and propose a customized algorithm for dealing with certain problems specific to that situation. First, implementation of model specification search using a GA with factor reordering for a simple structure factor analysis is proposed. Then, through a simulation study using generated data with a known true structure and through example analysis using real data, the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method were demonstrated.