Examining Spirituality Over Time: Latent Growth Curve and Individual Growth Curve Analyses

SUMMARY

Research on spirituality and religiousness has gained growing attention in recent years; however, most studies have used cross-sectional designs. As research on this topic evolves, there has been increasing recognition of the need to examine these constructs and their effects through the use of longitudinal designs. Beyond repeated-measures ANOVA and OLS regression models, what tools are available to examine these constructs over time? The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of two cutting-edge statistical techniques that will facilitate longitudinal investigations of spirituality and religiousness: latent growth curve analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM) and individual growth curve models. The SEM growth curve approach examines change at the group level, with change over time expressed as a single latent growth factor. In contrast, individual growth curve models consider longitudinal change at the level of the person. While similar results may be obtained using either method, researchers may opt for one over the other due to the strengths and weaknesses associated with these methods. Examples of applications of both approaches to longitudinal studies of spirituality and religiousness are presented and discussed, along with design and data considerations when employing these modeling techniques.     

Doubly Robust-Type Estimation for Covariate Adjustment in Latent Variable Modeling

Due to the difficulty in achieving a random assignment, a quasi-experimental or observational study design is frequently used in the behavioral and social sciences. If a nonrandom assignment depends on the covariates, multiple group structural equation modeling, that includes the regression function of the dependent variables on the covariates that determine the assignment, can provide reasonable estimates under the condition of correct specification of the regression function. However, it is usually difficult to specify the correct regression function because the dimensions of the dependent variables and covariates are typically large. Therefore, the propensity score adjustment methods have been proposed, since they do not require the specification of the regression function and have been applied to several applied studies. However, these methods produce biased estimates if the assignment mechanism is incorrectly specified. In order to make a more robust inference, it would be more useful to develop an estimation method that integrates the regression approach with the propensity score methodology. In this study we propose a doubly robust-type estimation method for marginal multiple group structural equation modeling. This method provides a consistent estimator if either the regression function or the assignment mechanism is correctly specified. A simulation study indicates that the proposed estimation method is more robust than the existing methods. This research was partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), 187-30406.     

A Latent Block Distance-Association Model for Profile by Profile Cross-Classified Categorical Data

Abstract

Distance association models constitute a useful tool for the analysis and graphical representation of cross-classified data in which distances between points inversely describe the association between two categorical variables. When the number of cells is large and the data counts result in sparse tables, the combination of clustering and representation reduces the number of parameters to be estimated and facilitates interpretation. In this article, a latent block distance-association model is proposed to apply block clustering to the outcomes of two categorical variables while the cluster centers are represented in a low dimensional space in terms of a distance-association model. This model is particularly useful for contingency tables in which both the rows and the columns are characterized as profiles of sets of response variables. The parameters are estimated under a Poisson sampling scheme using a generalized EM algorithm. The performance of the model is tested in a Monte Carlo experiment, and an empirical data set is analyzed to illustrate the model.     

Estimating Age-Based Developmental Trajectories Using Latent Change Score Models Based on Measurement Occasion

Abstract

Accelerated longitudinal designs (ALDs) are designs in which participants from different cohorts provide repeated measures covering a fraction of the time range of the study. ALDs allow researchers to study developmental processes spanning long periods within a relatively shorter time framework. The common trajectory is studied by aggregating the information provided by the different cohorts. Latent change score (LCS) models provide a powerful analytical framework to analyze data from ALDs. With developmental data, LCS models can be specified using measurement occasion as the time metric. This provides a number of benefits, but has an important limitation: It makes it not possible to characterize the longitudinal changes as a function of a developmental process such as age or biological maturation. To overcome this limitation, we propose an extension of an occasion-based LCS model that includes age differences at the first measurement occasion. We conducted a Monte Carlo study and compared the results of including different transformations of the age variable. Our results indicate that some of the proposed transformations resulted in accurate expectations for the studied process across all the ages in the study, and excellent model fit. We discuss these results and provide the R code for our analysis.     

Misspecification in Latent Change Score Models: Consequences for Parameter Estimation,Model Evaluation,and Predicting Change

Latent change score models (LCS) are conceptually powerful tools for analyzing longitudinal data (McArdle & Hamagami, 2001). However, applications of these models typically include constraints on key parameters over time. Although practically useful, strict invariance over time in these parameters is unlikely in real data. This study investigates the robustness of LCS when invariance over time is incorrectly imposed on key change-related parameters. Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to explore the impact of misspecification on parameter estimation, predicted trajectories of change, and model fit in the dual change score model, the foundational LCS. When constraints were incorrectly applied, several parameters, most notably the slope (i.e., constant change) factor mean and autoproportion coefficient, were severely and consistently biased, as were regression paths to the slope factor when external predictors of change were included. Standard fit indices indicated that the misspecified models fit well, partly because mean level trajectories over time were accurately captured. Loosening constraint improved the accuracy of parameter estimates, but estimates were more unstable, and models frequently failed to converge. Results suggest that potentially common sources of misspecification in LCS can produce distorted impressions of developmental processes, and that identifying and rectifying the situation is a challenge.     

Estimation of Controlled Direct Effects in Longitudinal Mediation Analyses with Latent Variables in Randomized Studies

Abstract

In a randomized study with longitudinal data on a mediator and outcome, estimating the direct effect of treatment on the outcome at a particular time requires adjusting for confounding of the association between the outcome and all preceding instances of the mediator. When the confounders are themselves affected by treatment, standard regression adjustment is prone to severe bias. In contrast, G-estimation requires less stringent assumptions than path analysis using SEM to unbiasedly estimate the direct effect even in linear settings. In this article, we propose a G-estimation method to estimate the controlled direct effect of treatment on the outcome, by adapting existing G-estimation methods for time-varying treatments without mediators. The proposed method can accommodate continuous and noncontinuous mediators, and requires no models for the confounders. Unbiased estimation only requires correctly specifying a mean model for either the mediator or the outcome. The method is further extended to settings where the mediator or outcome, or both, are latent, and generalizes existing methods for single measurement occasions of the mediator and outcome to longitudinal data on the mediator and outcome. The methods are utilized to assess the effects of an intervention on physical activity that is possibly mediated by motivation to exercise in a randomized study.     

童年中晚期孤独感的发展轨迹：一项潜变量增长模型分析

使用问卷法和同伴提名法对884名小学二年级学生进行历时三年的四次追踪测试, 采用潜变量增长模型建模, 检验小学2~5年级学生孤独感的变化趋势, 并考察不同性别儿童孤独感变化的差异性以及同伴接纳对孤独感变化的影响。结果发现：(1) 2~5年级小学生孤独感呈曲线递减趋势, 递减速度逐渐减缓, 起始水平及发展速度均存在显著的个体差异; (2)女孩起始的孤独感水平显著低于男孩, 而发展速度、加速度则不存在显著的性别差异; (3)较高的同伴接纳对当时儿童孤独感的降低具有显著的促进作用。研究采用孤独感发展的情境观, 并结合儿童认知、自我发展的特点对结果进行了分析。     

初中生积极适应的发展轨迹:基于潜变量增长模型的分析

采用问卷法对290名初中生在初中三年间积极适应的发展状况进行四次追踪测试,利用潜变量增长模型检验个体积极适应的变化趋势,同时考察了随时间稳定变量(学校转换)和随时间变化变量(压力知觉)对积极适应的影响。结果发现:1、从初一到初三,个体积极适应的自我肯定和行事效率维度呈曲线上升趋势,且上升速度逐年下降;亲社会倾向呈线性上升趋势;积极应对呈线性下降趋势;2、学校转变对初中生积极适应发展的影响较小;3、压力知觉可显著抑制当时初中生的积极适应。     

基于增长模型的非随机缺失数据处理:选择模型和极大似然方法

对含有非随机缺失数据的潜变量增长模型,为了考察基于不同假设的缺失数据处理方法:极大似然(ML)方法与DiggleKenward选择模型的优劣,通过Monte Carlo模拟研究,比较两种方法对模型中增长参数估计精度及其标准误估计的差异,并考虑样本量、非随机缺失比例和随机缺失比例的影响。结果表明,符合前提假设的Diggle-Kenward选择模型的参数估计精度普遍高于ML方法;对于标准误估计值,ML方法存在一定程度的低估,得到的置信区间覆盖比率也明显低于Diggle-Kenward选择模型。     

Specifying Ability Growth Models Using a Multidimensional Item Response Model for Repeated Measures Categorical Ordinal Item Response Data

When categorical ordinal item response data are collected over multiple timepoints from a repeated measures design, an item response theory (IRT) modeling approach whose unit of analysis is an item response is suitable. This study proposes a few longitudinal IRT models and illustrates how a popular compensatory multidimensional IRT model can be utilized to formulate such longitudinal IRT models, which permits an investigation of ability growth at both individual and population levels. The equivalence of an existing multidimensional IRT model and those longitudinal IRT models is also elaborated so that one can make use of an existing multidimensional IRT model to implement the longitudinal IRT models.     

多水平随机中介效应估计及其比较

本文在综述各类多水平中介模型的基础上, 聚焦于自变量、中介变量、因变量都来自多水平结构中较低水平的多水平随机中介效应模型, 通过蒙特卡洛模拟研究比较该模型与简化的多水平固定中介效应模型、传统中介效应模型的差别, 并考察了目前用于多水平随机中介效应的三种参数估计方法：限制性极大似然、极大似然、最小方差二次无偏估计在不同情况下对随机中介效应估计的优劣。研究结果显示：当数据符合多水平随机中介效应模型时, 使用简化模型将错误估计中介效应及其标准误, 得到不正确的统计检验结果; 使用多水平随机中介效应模型能够实现对中介效应的正确估计和检验, 其中限制性极大似然或极大似然估计方法优于最小方差二次无偏估计方法。     

The Impact of Item Misspecification and Dichotomization on Class and Parameter Recovery in LCA of Count Data

Mixture analysis of count data has become increasingly popular among researchers of substance use, behavioral analysis, and program evaluation. However, this increase in popularity seems to have occurred along with adoption of some conventions in model specification based on arbitrary heuristics that may impact the validity of results. Findings from a systematic review of recent drug and alcohol publications suggested count variables are often dichotomized or misspecified as continuous normal indicators in mixture analysis. Prior research suggests that misspecifying skewed distributions of continuous indicators in mixture analysis introduces bias, though the consequences of this practice when applied to count indicators has not been studied. The present work describes results from a simulation study examining bias in mixture recovery when count indicators are dichotomized (median split; presence vs. absence), ordinalized, or the distribution is misspecified (continuous normal; incorrect count distribution). All distributional misspecifications and methods of categorizing resulted in greater bias in parameter estimates and recovery of class membership relative to specifying the true distribution, though dichotomization appeared to improve class enumeration accuracy relative to all other specifications. Overall, results demonstrate the importance of accurately modeling count indicators in mixture analysis, as misspecification and categorizing data can distort study outcomes.     

A Method of Correcting Estimation Failure in Latent Differential Equations with Comparisons to Kalman Filtering

Abstract

Studies have used the latent differential equation (LDE) model to estimate the parameters of damped oscillation in various phenomena, but it has been shown that correct, non-zero parameter estimates are only obtained when the latent series exhibits little or no process noise. Consequently, LDEs are limited to modeling deterministic processes with measurement error rather than those with random behavior in the true latent state. The reasons for these limitations are considered, and a piecewise deterministic approximation (PDA) algorithm is proposed to treat process noise outliers as functional discontinuities and obtain correct estimates of the damping parameter. Comprehensive, random-effects simulations were used to compare results with those obtained using a state-space model (SSM) based on the Kalman filter. The LDE with the PDA algorithm (LDEPDA) successfully recovered the simulated damping parameter under a variety of conditions when process noise was present in the latent state. The LDEPDA had greater precision and accuracy than the SSM when estimating parameters from data with sparse jump discontinuities, but worse performance for diffusion processes overall. All three methods were applied to a sample of postural sway data. The basic LDE estimated zero damping, while the LDEPDA and SSM estimated moderate to high damping. The SSM estimated the smallest standard errors for both frequency and damping parameter estimates.     

Regularized Finite Mixture Models for Probability Trajectories

Finite mixture models are widely used in the analysis of growth trajectory data to discover subgroups of individuals exhibiting similar patterns of behavior over time. In practice, trajectories are usually modeled as polynomials, which may fail to capture important features of the longitudinal pattern. Focusing on dichotomous response measures, we propose a likelihood penalization approach for parameter estimation that is able to capture a variety of nonlinear class mean trajectory shapes with higher precision than maximum likelihood estimates. We show how parameter estimation and inference for whether trajectories are time-invariant, linear time-varying, or nonlinear time-varying can be carried out for such models. To illustrate the method, we use simulation studies and data from a long-term longitudinal study of children at high risk for substance abuse. This work was supported in part by NIAAA grants R37 AA07065 and R01 AA12217 to RAZ.     

纳入式分类分析法在潜在剖面模型的后续多元回归中的应用

纳入式分类分析法能克服传统的分类分析法对后续一元回归模型参数的低估,发挥潜在类别模型的后续分析简化变量间交互作用的功能。本文进一步将纳入式分类分析法拓展至潜在剖面模型后续的多元统计分析中。通过蒙特卡洛模拟实验,比较各种纳入变量的方法思路与后续分析模型在四种常见的多元回归模型中参数估计的表现。结果发现,纳入式分类分析法所需纳入的变量取决于后续分析中与因变量、潜类别变量的关系,且后续分析使用含交互作用的模型更为稳健。     

An Examination of a Functional Mixed-Effects Modeling Approach to the Analysis of Longitudinal Data

Growth curve modeling is one of the main analytical approaches to study change over time. Growth curve models are commonly estimated in the linear and nonlinear mixed-effects modeling framework in which both the mean and person-specific curves are modeled parametrically with functions of time such as the linear, quadratic, and exponential. However, when more complex nonlinear trajectories need to be estimated and researchers do not have a priori knowledge of an appropriate functional form of growth, parametric models may be too restrictive. This paper reviews functional mixed-effects models, a nonparametric extension of mixed-effects models that permit both the mean and person-specific curves to be estimated without assuming a prespecified functional form of growth. Details of the model are presented along with results from a simulation study and an empirical example. The simulation study showed functional mixed-effects models performed reasonably well under various conditions commonly associated with longitudinal panel data, such as few time points per person, irregularly spaced time points across persons, missingness, and nonlinear trajectories. The usefulness of functional mixed-effects models is illustrated by analyzing empirical data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study – Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999.     

Bayesian inference for finite mixtures of generalized linear models with random effects

We present an hierarchical Bayes approach to modeling parameter heterogeneity in generalized linear models. The model assumes that there are relevant subpopulations and that within each subpopulation the individual-level regression coefficients have a multivariate normal distribution. However, class membership is not known a priori, so the heterogeneity in the regression coefficients becomes a finite mixture of normal distributions. This approach combines the flexibility of semiparametric, latent class models that assume common parameters for each sub-population and the parsimony of random effects models that assume normal distributions for the regression parameters. The number of subpopulations is selected to maximize the posterior probability of the model being true. Simulations are presented which document the performance of the methodology for synthetic data with known heterogeneity and number of sub-populations. An application is presented concerning preferences for various aspects of personal computers.     

Selecting the number of classes under latent class regression: a factor analytic analogue

Recently, the regression extension of latent class analysis (RLCA) model has received much attention in the field of medical research. The basic RLCA model summarizes shared features of measured multiple indicators as an underlying categorical variable and incorporates the covariate information in modeling both latent class membership and multiple indicators themselves. To reduce complexity and enhance interpretability, one usually fixes the number of classes in a given RLCA. Often, goodness of fit methods comparing various estimated models are used as a criterion to select the number of classes. In this paper, we propose a new method that is based on an analogous method used in factor analysis and does not require repeated fitting. Two ideas with application to many settings other than ours are synthesized in deriving the method: a connection between latent class models and factor analysis, and techniques of covariate marginalization and elimination. A Monte Carlo simulation study is presented to evaluate the behavior of the selection procedure and compare to alternative approaches. Data from a study of how measured visual impairments affect older persons’ functioning are used for illustration.This work was supported by National Institute on Aging (NIA) Program Project P01-AG-10184-03. The author wishes to thank Dr. Karen Bandeen-Roche for her stimulating comments and helpful discussions, and Drs. Gary Rubin and Sheila West for kindly making the Salisbury Eye Evaluation data available.     

On structural models for analyzing change

The recommendation to base the analysis of multi-wave data upon explicit models for change is advocated. Several univariate and multivariate models are described, which emerge from an interaction between the classical test theory and the structural equation modeling approach. The resulting structural models for analyzing change reflect in some of their parameters substantively interesting aspects of intra- and interindividual change in follow-up studies. The models are viewed as an alternative to an ANOVA-based analysis of longitudinal data, and are illustrated on data from a cognitive intervention study of old adults (Bakes et al , 1986). The approach presents a useful means of analyzing change over time, and is applicable for purposes of (latent) growth curve analysis when analysis of variance assumptions are violated (e.g., Schaie & Hertzog, 1982; Morrison, 1976).