The Prospects for Prospect Theory: An Empirical Evaluation of International Relations Applications of Framing and Loss Aversion

International relations theorists have tried to adapt prospect theory to make it relevant to the study of real-world decision-making and testable beyond the constraints of the laboratory. Three experiments with undergraduate samples were conducted in an effort to clarify the advantages and limitations of prospect theory as adapted to explain political behavior. The first experiment tested hypotheses regarding the impact of prospect framing on group polarization, but these were only weakly supported. The second and third experiments examined alternative adaptations of the concept of framing; the results suggest that the political science expansion of the concept of framing may, under certain conditions, produce clear and robust preference reversals.     

行为经济学中的损失规避

损失规避是指,人们总是强烈倾向于规避损失：一定数额的损失所引起的心理感受,其强烈程度约相当于两倍数额的获益感受。这种强烈的心理与行为倾向广泛存在于风险与非风险领域,在该两个领域中损失规避的研究范式也不同。损失规避常见于经济和消费等领域,可用于解释行为决策中有悖于规范化理论的诸多现象,如禀赋效应、现状偏差、股权溢价之迷和赢者的诅咒等。然而,损失规避的机制研究还存在许多尚未解决的问题,如损失规避的本质以及适用条件。今后的研究不仅要注重认知角度和情感依恋,还要结合认知过程来研究损失规避的性质和内在机制,以期帮助人们认识、预测及干预由损失规避造成的经济损失和非理性决策。     

Losses Induce Consistency in Risk Taking Even Without Loss Aversion

It is posited that because of the attentional effect of losses, individuals would show more behavioral consistency in risk‐taking tasks with losses, even in the absence of loss aversion. In two studies, the consistency of risky choices across different experience‐based tasks was evaluated for gain, loss, and mixed (gain loss) tasks. In both studies, losses facilitated the consistency across tasks: the correlation between risk‐taking choices in different tasks increased when the tasks involved frequent losses. Study 2 also showed a positive effect of losses on temporal consistency. Losses increased the correlation between risk‐taking levels across two sessions that were 45 days apart. Also in Study 2, losses induced consistency between experiential risk‐taking choices and self‐reported ratings of risky behavior. In both studies, the positive effect of losses on consistency was observed even when the average participant did not exhibit loss aversion. Taken together, the results indicate that losses increase the consistency of risk‐taking behavior and suggest that this is due to the effect of losses on attention. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Culture on Loss Aversion

Based on the literature on the relationship between culture, emotion, and loss aversion, we derive that culture can influence the degree of loss aversion. To test our hypotheses, we conduct a standardized survey in 53 countries worldwide that includes the questions from the Hofstede survey on cultural dimensions as well as lottery questions on loss aversion. The results show that individualism, power distance, and masculinity increase loss aversion as predicted, whereas the impact of uncertainty avoidance is less significant. Moreover, we also find a relation between the distribution of major religions in a country and loss aversion. In comparison, the connection of loss aversion to macroeconomic variables seems to be much smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Need for Cognition and Choice Framing Effects

Two experiments tested the hypothesis that framing biases in decision making would affect more strongly individuals with relatively low levels of need for cognition (NC). Participants were classified as high or low NC based on responses to a standard scale and subsequently were exposed to one of two framings of a choice problem. Different choice problems were used in each experiment, modeled after those developed by Kahneman and Tversky. Experiment 1 employed a monetary task and Experiment 2 a medical decision-making task. Consistent with expectations, framing effects on choice were observed in both experiments, but only for low NC participants. High NC participants were unaffected by problem framing, showing that they were less susceptible to attempts to alter their frame of reference.     

决策的加工过程及个体差异:模糊痕迹理论视角

模糊痕迹理论是行为决策领域的重要解释理论,它认为个体在加工信息时存在字面加工和要义加工两种方式,在决策时个体更倾向于使用要义加工,而且这两种加工存在个体差异。决策的加工模型依据模糊痕迹理论提出,以框架效应和风险知觉为例对该模型进行解释。模糊痕迹理论通过分析加工方式的个体差异来解释决策的个体差异。未来研究应进一步比较模糊痕迹理论与其他理论,完善根据模糊痕迹理论提出的决策加工模型,并深入探索决策的个体差异。     

Individual Differences Associated with Emotional and Behavioral Responses to Ambiguous Social Situations in which Rejection Might be Inferred

This study sought to examine the extent to which undergraduates' experiences with and attitudes relevant to rejection may be associated with their emotional and behavioral responses to ambiguous social situations in which rejection might be inferred. Undergraduate students completed questionnaires that assessed their experiences with and attitudes relevant to being rejected. Next, each participant read six hypothetical scenarios that described various situations that could be interpreted as interpersonal rejection. Following each scenario, participants completed questionnaires that assessed their emotional and behavioral responses to the hypothetical situation. Analyses revealed that the participants' experiences with rejection (and, to a lesser extent, their rejection-relevant attitudes) were associated with a negative emotional response and some negative behavioral responses. In sum, when another individual's interpersonal behavior has an uncertain intent, undergraduates' prior experiences with rejection may be especially important in determining the extent to which they feel and act as if they have been rejected.     

“All‐or‐None” Versus “Most‐or‐Some” Options in Risky Choice: Effects of Domain and Handedness

Two methodological variants of Kahneman and Tversky's Asian disease scenario were investigated. One variant involved replacing the “all‐or‐none” outcome scenarios of the risky choice with “most‐or‐some” scenario outcomes, and the second variant involved replacing the negative domain of lives lost with a positive domain of jobs created. In addition, the effects of strength of handedness, a variable related to individual differences in risk perception, were examined. Results indicated that standard framing effects were obtained across both domains, with a decrease in risky choice under the gain domain. Scenario type also interacted with handedness, such that the all‐or‐none scenario yielded framing effects for consistent (strong)‐handers only, whereas the most‐or‐some scenario yielded framing effects for inconsistent (mixed)‐handers only (consistent‐handers are those who use the same hand exclusively for almost all activities). These results demonstrate that framing effects are strongly influenced by the presence versus absence of extreme/absolute outcomes and that individuals (in this case, decision makers with varying degrees of handedness strength) are differentially sensitive to different pieces of information. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

注意瞬脱效应的个体差异

注意瞬脱是指个体在对同一位置出现的多个刺激进行识别时, 如果第二个目标刺激出现在第一个目标刺激之后200~500 ms之间, 那么个体对第二个目标刺激的识别会显著降低的现象。研究表明, 注意瞬脱效应在健康人群中存在显著的个体差异, 主要表现在工作记忆、对分心刺激的抑制能力、意向聚焦、情绪状态和人格等方面。近年来, 注意瞬脱的个体差异也在多种神经疾病的临床研究中得到重视。未来的研究应更多关注注意瞬脱效应个体差异背后的神经机制以及应用研究。     

繁殖感的个体差异及其影响因素

繁殖感是成年中期心理社会发展的主要任务,表现在生产能力、养育后代、人际和社会关怀以及领导能力等方面,包含关注、承诺、行动等维度,并以多种形式存在于生命周期的多个阶段。近来研究表明,繁殖感强调个体积极的存在和发展模式,对人际关系与社会和谐也具有促进作用。繁殖感的个体差异可表现在状态水平、年龄、性别角色等方面,主要受社会文化、个体内在期望以及父母教养方式等因素的影响。未来研究将从测量方法的整合,繁殖感与主观幸福感的关系等方面展开。     

参照依赖和损失规避对个体收入分配公平判断的影响

收入分配公平判断是人们对自己收入所得公平与否的主观评价。通过对参照点和收入金额的控制,探讨参照依赖和损失规避对收入分配公平判断的共同影响。结果发现,(1)民众的收入公平判断受参照点的影响,在有参照点的情景下比无参照点情景下更感觉不公平;(2)不同工资水平下,民众的公平判断具有显著差异,而且民众对低于平均工资的“受损”比高于平均工资同等金额的“受益”赋予的公平感的权重更大,即存在得失感受的不对称;(3)不同的工资参照点、多得和少得的分配结果共同影响民众的公平判断,即损失规避在参照依赖对公平判断的影响中起调节作用。     

决策中个体差异研究现状述评

决策中个体差异的研究有助于进一步检验和深化传统决策理论。文章回顾了近十年决策个体差异研究的主要变量（人格、认知能力、认知风格和年龄）和研究结果,并简要总结了该类研究的背景、研究范式和理论意义。这些研究一致发现个体差异变量对决策过程、决策表现等具有影响作用,说明个体差异与决策加工中复杂的人-情境间联系有关。文章提出,未来研究应该综合考虑决策情境、情绪和决策主体的理论模型,以期对个体差异在决策中的作用做出更好解释     

与笑有关的三种个体差异：被笑恐惧、被笑愉悦与笑他愉悦

被笑恐惧、被笑愉悦和笑他愉悦是三种不同的个体差异。被笑恐惧指个体在害怕被嘲笑而产生的恐惧上的差异,被笑愉悦指个体由于被别人嘲笑而产生的愉悦上的差异,笑他愉悦指个体因嘲笑他人而产生的愉悦上的差异。文章阐释了被笑恐惧的概念及相关研究,同时介绍了被笑愉悦和笑他愉悦概念的构建和测量。对三者的研究尚处于初始阶段,但三个概念中所包含的社会文化差异则值得深思。     

Pavlovian Disgust Conditioning and Generalization: Specificity and Associations With Individual Differences

Although studies have identified differences between fear and disgust conditioning, much less is known about the generalization of conditioned disgust. This is an important gap in the literature given that overgeneralization of conditioned disgust to neutral stimuli may have clinical implications. To address this knowledge gap, female participants (n = 80) completed a Pavlovian conditioning procedure in which one neutral food item (conditioned stimulus; CS+) was followed by disgusting videos of individuals vomiting (unconditioned stimulus; US) and another neutral food item (CS–) was not reinforced with the disgusting video. Following this acquisition phase, there was an extinction phase in which both CSs were presented unreinforced. Importantly, participants also evaluated generalization stimuli (GS+, GS?) that resembled, but were distinct from, the CS after each conditioning phase. As predicted, the CS+ was rated as significantly more disgusting and fear inducing than the CS? after acquisition and this pattern persisted after extinction. However, disgust ratings of the CS+ after acquisition were significantly larger than fear ratings. Participants also rated the GS+ as significantly more disgusting, but not fear inducing, than the GS? after acquisition. However, this effect was not observed after extinction. Disgust proneness did predict a greater increase in disgust and fear ratings of the CS+ relative to the CS? after acquisition and extinction. In contrast, trait anxiety predicted only higher fear ratings to the CS+ relative to the CS? after acquisition and extinction. Disgust proneness nor trait anxiety predicted the greater increase in disgust to the GS+ relative to the GS? after acquisition. These findings suggest that while conditioned disgust can generalize, individual difference variables that predict generalization remain unclear. The implications of these findings for disorders of disgust are discussed.     

Ratio Bias and Policy Preferences: How Equivalency Framing of Numbers Can Affect Attitudes

Numbers permeate modern political communication. While current scholarship on framing effects has focused on the persuasive effects of words and arguments, this article shows that framing of numbers can also substantially affect policy preferences. Such effects are caused by ratio bias, which is a general tendency to focus on numerators and pay insufficient attention to denominators in ratios. Using a population‐based survey experiment, I demonstrate how differently framed but logically equivalent representations of the exact same numerical value can have large effects on citizens' preferences regarding salient political issues such as education and taxes. Furthermore, the effects of numerical framing are found across most groups of the population, largely regardless of their political predisposition and their general ability to understand and use numerical information. These findings have significant implications for our understanding of framing effects and the role played by numbers in public opinion formation.     

Maternal Care and Individual Differences in Defensive Responses

Abstract— Familial transmission of mental illness is common. Recent studies in behavioral neuroscience and biological psychiatry reveal the importance of epigenetic mechanisms of transmission that center on the developmental consequences of variations in parental care. Studies with rats suggest that environmental adversity results in patterns of parent–offspring interactions that increase stress reactivity through sustained effects on gene expression in brain regions known to regulate behavioral, endocrine, and autonomic responses to stress. While such effects might be adaptive, the associated cost involves an increased risk for stress-related illness.     

Framing and Risky Choice as Influenced by Comparison of One's Achievements with Others: The Case of Investment in the Stock Exchange

Based on social comparison theory and equity theory, the first aim of this study was to examine the hypothesis that framing is affected not only by previous success or failure, but also by comparisons with relevant others' outcomes as well. The second aim of the study was to examine prospect theory propositions that people are risk aversive for gains and risk seeking for losses. A total of 220 students were administered scenarios that described outcomes of their stock investments (gains or losses). In addition, they were provided with information about their close friends' outcomes investing in similar stocks. Generally, the hypothesis regarding the influence of others' outcomes on framing was confirmed. However, results showed that, in contradiction to prospect theory, gain framing rather than loss framing was related to risk seeking behavior. Specifically, in the gain framing situation, the readiness to take risks was highest when the others' outcomes were equal to those of the participants. The limitations of prospect theory are discussed.     

How to Exploit Diversity for Scientific Gain: Using Individual Differences to Constrain Cognitive Theory

ABSTRACT— People often show considerable systematic variability in their ability to perform many different cognitive tasks. In this article, we argue that by combining an individual-differences approach with an experimental-cognitive-neuroscience approach one can often further constrain potential theories of the underlying cognitive mechanisms. In support of this proposal, we outline three basic benefits of using an individual-differences approach: validating neurophysiological measures, demonstrating associations among constructs, and demonstrating dissociations among apparently similar constructs. To illustrate these points, we describe recent work by us and other researchers that utilizes each of these techniques to address specific questions within the domain of visual working memory. It is our hope that some of these techniques for utilizing individual variability may be applied to other domains within cognitive neuroscience.     

音乐时间加工的影响因素

音乐的时间维度在音乐艺术中具有重要的作用。已有研究表明, 对音乐时间维度的加工受制于许多方面, 一方面, 音乐构成要素的特征影响着人们对音乐时间的加工; 另一方面, 听者的年龄、注意、工作记忆、音乐训练以及对音乐的熟悉性等因素也影响着他们对音乐时间加工的深度和广度。未来的研究应进一步确定音乐时间加工的影响因素及其相对重要性, 并对音乐时间加工中基因与环境的关系以及发展的敏感期等问题进行研究。