Experience and inference: how far will science carry us?

This paper begins with a view of the remarkable understanding of infant and child development that has evolved from research and observation. The limitations of this contribution from science to the multi-dimensional context-based individuality of each human in his or her intersubjective realm are then considered. For a contemporary view we must recognize the influence of the variability of experiences and the inferences drawn from them. Inferences involve symbolization and culturally derived archetypes as illustrated in a clinical example.     

阅读理解推断策略教学研究

研究30位不同语文能力的小学五年级男女学生,透过外显的计算机学习软件,学习7个词语、7个句子和6个段落的理解推断策略。词语和句子的推断策略有:主题、何人、何事、相关知识、词语前后关系、语法;段落的推断策略有:前段主题、前段细节、前段段旨、相关知识、篇章结构。研究发现不同语文能力和性别的学生的整体学习成效都十分显著,其中段落推断的学习成绩女生明显高于男生。     

3—7岁儿童不同类型的传递性推理的发展研究

本研究从发展的角度研究了3-7岁儿童在解决三类传递性推理问题时能力发展和策略发展状况,真传递性推理指推理的传递性是确定的,个体根据前提关系可以做出确定的传递性推理结论,不确定性传递性推理指该类推理的传递性是不确定的,关系是否传递需要根据实际的情况和社会经验来确定,否定性传递性推理指根据前提关系得出不能进行传递性的必然结论。结果表明：（1）三类传递性推理的解题能力随年龄的增长而不断增强,在7岁左右初步形成。（2）三类传递性推理,能力发展有不同的起始点、快速发展期以及初步形成期。真传递性推理发展最早最快,不确定传递性推理最晚最慢。（3）3-7岁儿童解决三类传递性推理问题时使用了猜测、视觉判断、定向反应、经验推测和逻辑推理等策略,然而随着年龄的增大,主导策略由准策略向真策略转换。     

模态系统的推理规则的强弱虚实

模态系统的推理规则可以用强弱虚实这四种性质进行分类。在一个系统中这几种性质无论在语形上还是语义上都有一定的联系和区别,有些性质在一个系统的变种或扩充中并不一定保持。     

语篇阅读中高级目标推理的机制

建构主义理论和最小假设模型是有关推理研究的两个比较系统的理论。建构主义理论认为在自然阅读过程中,读者会即时产生高级目标推理,而最小假设模型认为在自然阅读过程中,高级目标推理不会即时产生。该研究采用词汇判断和命名的方法,250ms和500ms两种延时程序,以较连贯的自然语篇为实验材料,对语篇阅读中的高级目标推理机制进行了研究。实验结果发现,被试在阅读过程中即时产生了高级目标推理,这与建构主义理论的预测相一致。     

论述理解中逻辑有效与逻辑无效条件推理的研究

句法理论和心理模型理论是解释论述理解中逻辑有效 (如MP)与逻辑无效 (如AC)条件推理机制的两种不同观点。本研究通过两项实验旨在对这两种理论加以检测。实验要求被试阅读遵循MP或AC形式的故事后对故事结论的正确性做出判断。结果表明 ,在论述理解中 ,条件前提的语义联系强度影响MP推理 ;深思熟虑对MP和AC推理均产生影响。研究结果支持心理模型理论。     

文本阅读中信息精确化推理的初步研究

采用动窗技术对文本阅读中信息精确化推理进行了初步研究。实验1研究在工作记忆范围内,信息精确化推理是即时发生的还是当局部信息不连贯时再重新追溯才发生。实验2探究信息精确化推理在长时记忆中是否也会发生。结果表明,文本阅读中的信息精确化推理,不管需要进行精确化推理的句子与包含推理所需信息的句子是处于同一工作记忆范围内,还是处于长时记忆中,推理都是即时发生的。     

中文故事阅读中预期与前后向推理的关系

通过3项实验,考察了中文故事阅读中前后向推理的差异及其与预期的关系。采用3×2独立设计,以反应时为指标,以较长的语篇为实验材料,分别利用核证法与命名法进行了实验一和二。实验三在实验二的基础上,用2×2独立设计,并根据实验目的修改了实验材料。实验一的结果显示,前向推理和后向推理差异显著;实验二的结果则是前向推理和后向推理无显著差异,而且预期的3个水平在前后向推理上均无显著差异;实验三的结果表明,在预期与前后向推理间距离近和预期句详述的情况下,预期与前后向推理产生了交互作用     

Pseudocontingencies in Consumer Choice: Preference for Prevalent Product Categories Decreases with Decreasing Set Quality

Building on theorizing about contingency inferences, the present research deals with the impact of product category prevalence on consumer choice. We argue that a category's prevalence in the choice set can signal high quality, but the validity depends on the aggregate quality of the choice set. With ever more low‐quality products in the set, high prevalence should increasingly signal poor rather than high quality. When choosing from a poor‐quality set, choices should thus favor products from the rare category. In four experiments, we show that poor‐quality sets increase the proportion of consumers choosing products from a rare category. Furthermore, we show that these effects increase when base rates of a category and quality become more extreme. Finally, Experiment 4 shows that contingency inferences partly mediate the effect of set quality on choice. The results extend previous research on contingency inferences, indicating the adaptive use of base‐rate information in consumer decision making. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关键词对精加工推理的影响作用初探

本实验研究在文本中突出关键词对精加工推理的产生水平和产生阶段的影响。研究采用了让被试阅读后做测试题的方法,通过分析测试题的成绩得出的结果表明：在文章中突出关键词有助于产生近推理和内涵推理,且使这两类推理更有可能在阅读过程中产生。本研究补充了McDaniel和Donnelly 1996年的研究结果。     

An essay on inequalities and order-restricted inference

This essay was prompted by a concern on the part of many senior members of the Society for Mathematical Psychology that the training of contemporary cognitive scientists exhibits a trend away from quantitative sophistication. Such a trend, if it goes unchallenged, can only serve to further marginalize mathematical psychology. There are several ways to combat this disturbing situation. Members of the Society might involve themselves more vigorously with scientific problems that are widely viewed as substantively or methodologically important, problems that require technical skill for their resolution; one example, discussed here, concerns order-restricted inference. We can also do more to encourage graduate students to develop and explore sophisticated theoretical models by giving them the tools to do so; that last battle must take place in the classroom.     

心理研究中引入贝叶斯统计推断的必要性、应用思路与领域

本文从科学范式演变和概率统计推断特征分析出发,就贝叶斯统计推断引入心理学的必要性、怎么应用、在哪些领域应用集中进行了论述。首先在分析科学范式演进各阶段统计推断任务需要、经典的频率概率统计推断不足基础上,得出科学范式处于危机和革命阶段时需要对相关理论做可信度检验。然后,在介绍贝叶斯定理及其统计推断的基础上,进一步分析了贝叶斯推断能解决理论可信度的多种假设检验情景。最后本文还就贝叶斯统计推断在心理学理论争鸣与建构、心理技术产品开发与评估具体领域应用做了分析。     

Familiarity-Matching: An Ecologically Rational Heuristic for the Relationships-Comparison Task

Previous studies have shown that people often use heuristics in making inferences and that subjective memory experiences, such as recognition or familiarity of objects, can be valid cues for inferences. So far, many researchers have used the binary choice task in which two objects are presented as alternatives (e.g., “Which city has the larger population, city A or city B?”). However, objects can be presented not only as alternatives but also in a question (e.g., “Which country is city X in, country A or country B?”). In such a situation, people can make inferences based on the relationship between the object in the question and each object given as an alternative. In the present study, we call this type of task a “relationships-comparison task.” We modeled the three inference strategies that people could apply to solve it (familiarity-matching [FM; a new heuristic we propose in this study], familiarity heuristic [FH], and knowledge-based inference [KI]) to examine people's inference processes. Through Studies 1, 2, and 3, we found that (a) people tended to rely on heuristics, and that FM (inferences based on similarity in familiarity between objects) well explained participants' inference patterns; (b) FM could work as an ecologically rational strategy for the relationships–comparison task since it could effectively reflect environmental structures, and that the use of FM could be highly replicable and robust; and (c) people could sometimes use a decision strategy like FM, even in their daily lives (consumer behaviors). The nature of the relationships–comparison task and human cognitive processes is discussed.     

Children's imitation of causal action sequences is influenced by statistical and pedagogical evidence

Children are ubiquitous imitators, but how do they decide which actions to imitate? One possibility is that children rationally combine multiple sources of information about which actions are necessary to cause a particular outcome. For instance, children might learn from contingencies between action sequences and outcomes across repeated demonstrations, and they might also use information about the actor’s knowledge state and pedagogical intentions. We define a Bayesian model that predicts children will decide whether to imitate part or all of an action sequence based on both the pattern of statistical evidence and the demonstrator’s pedagogical stance. To test this prediction, we conducted an experiment in which preschool children watched an experimenter repeatedly perform sequences of varying actions followed by an outcome. Children’s imitation of sequences that produced the outcome increased, in some cases resulting in production of shorter sequences of actions that the children had never seen performed in isolation. A second experiment established that children interpret the same statistical evidence differently when it comes from a knowledgeable teacher versus a naïve demonstrator. In particular, in the pedagogical case children are more likely to “overimitate” by reproducing the entire demonstrated sequence. This behavior is consistent with our model’s predictions, and suggests that children attend to both statistical and pedagogical evidence in deciding which actions to imitate, rather than obligately imitating successful action sequences.     

Entailment with Near Surety of Scaled Assertions of High Conditional Probability

An assertion of high conditional probability or, more briefly, an HCP assertion is a statement of the type: The conditional probability of B given A is close to one. The goal of this paper is to construct logics of HCP assertions whose conclusions are highly likely to be correct rather than certain to be correct. Such logics would allow useful conclusions to be drawn when the premises are not strong enough to allow conclusions to be reached with certainty. This goal is achieved by taking Adams" (1966) logic, changing its intended application from conditionals to HCP assertions, and then weakening its criterion for entailment. According to the weakened entailment criterion, called the Criterion of Near Surety and which may be loosely interpreted as a Bayesian criterion, a conclusion is entailed if and only if nearly every model of the premises is a model of the conclusion. The resulting logic, called NSL, is nonmonotonic. Entailment in this logic, although not as strict as entailment in Adams" logic, is more strict than entailment in the propositional logic of material conditionals. Next, NSL was modified by requiring that each HCP assertion be scaled; this means that to each HCP assertion was associated a bound on the deviation from 1 of the conditional probability that is the subject of the assertion. Scaling of HCP assertions is useful for breaking entailment deadlocks. For example, it it is known that the conditional probabilities of C given A and of ¬ C given B are both close to one but the bound on the former"s deviation from 1 is much smaller than the latter"s, then it may be concluded that in all likelihood the conditional probability of C given A B is close to one. The resulting logic, called NSL-S, is also nonmonotonic. Despite great differences in their definitions of entailment, entailment in NSL is equivalent to Lehmann and Magidor"s rational closure and, disregarding minor differences concerning which premise sets are considered consistent, entailment in NSL-S is equivalent to entailment in Goldszmidt and Pearl"s System-Z ⁺. Bacchus, Grove, Halpern, and Koller proposed two methods of developing a predicate calculus based on the Criterion of Near Surety. In their random-structures method, which assumed a prior distribution similar to that of NSL, it appears possible to define an entailment relation equivalent to that of NSL. In their random-worlds method, which assumed a prior distribution dramatically different from that of NSL, it is known that the entailment relation is different from that of NSL.     

Subjects' inferential performance and the interaction of data and hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks

In a recent paper, Knez (1991) showed an interaction of data and hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks. The results illustrated two, earlier not obtained, significant main effects on subjects' hypothesis sampling , viz. the effect of different forms of data presentation and subjects' execution of cognitive control over their hypothesis pool throughout the series of trials. The present paper followed up these results in that the subjects' hypothesis testing , in Knez (1991) was subjected to an analysis. Hence, to see if the effects mentioned above significantly influenced the subjects' hypothesis testing, as they did for subjects' hypothesis sampling. The results showed a consistency with Knez (1991), i.e. the results emphasize the interaction of data and hypothesis in probabilistic inference tasks, as well as the subjects' execution of cognitive control over their hypothesis pool concerning both the subjects' hypothesis sampling and testing.     

Fifteen-month-old infants attend to shape over other perceptual properties in an induction task

This study examined whether infants privilege shape over other perceptual properties when making inferences about the shared properties of novel objects. Forty-six 15-month-olds were presented with novel target objects that possessed a nonobvious property, followed by test objects that varied in shape, color, or texture relative to the target. Infants generalized the nonobvious property to test objects that were highly similar in shape, but not to objects that shared the same color or texture. These results demonstrate that infants’ attention to shape is not specific to lexical contexts and is present at the early stages of productive language development. The implications of these findings for debates about children's shape bias, in particular, and the nature of infants’ categories more generally, are discussed.     

Interaction of data and hypotheses in probabilistic inference tasks: Rejection of the hypothesis sampling model?

The problem of whether or not data influence subjects' sampling of hypotheses about functional relations in the probabilistic inference tasks was examined. The results of the experiment show first, a considerable impact of data on subjects' hypothesis selection and second, that the subjects significantly modify their hypothesis selection from one part of the experiment to the other. Thus, there is an interaction of data and hypotheses in cue probability learning (CPL) tasks regarding the hypothesis sampling process and an execution of cognitive control over the subjects' hypothesis pool.     

Culture and visual perception: Does perceptual inference depend on culture?1,2

Abstract: Some perceptual cues carry information about the overall pattern of an object (holistic cues), whereas others carry information about the distinct parts of an object (part cues). Drawing on recent work on culture and cognition, the authors predicted that people with European‐American cultural backgrounds would be more capable of using part cues in perceptual inference than those with Asian backgrounds. No such cross‐cultural difference was expected for the ability to use holistic cues. In two studies, participants were presented with either one of the two types of cues and asked to infer the identity of the original objects. As predicted, in the part‐cue condition European‐American participants performed better than did Japanese (Study 1) and Asian‐American participants (Study 2). Also as predicted, there was no cultural difference in the holistic‐cue condition. The results were interpreted with reference to other related studies documenting reliable cross‐cultural differences in cognition.