On Separating Predictability and Determinism

There has been a long-standing debate about the relationshipof predictability and determinism. Some have maintained that determinism impliespredictability while others have maintained that predictability implies determinism. Manyhave maintained that there are no implication relations between determinism andpredictability. This summary is, of course, somewhat oversimplified and quick at least in thesense that there are various notions of determinism and predictability at work in thephilosophical literature. In this essay I will focus on what I take to be the Laplacean visionfor determinism and predictability. While many forms of predictability areinconsistent with this vision, I argue that a suitably restricted notion of predictability,consistent with the practice of physicists, is implied by the Laplacean notion of determinism.It is argued that limitations on predictability are of an in principle nature in the Appendix.     

A framework for reproductive memory tasks

The present papers present a framework for reproductive memory tasks. It is proposed that the notion of predictability of presentation is of prime importance to performance in reproductive tasks and that this notion may be decomposed into three critical dimensions, viz. the item expectancy, the type-of-recall and recall expectancy dimensions. The first dimension refers to the manipulation of inter-item intervals; the second to backward, forward or free recall and the third to when recall is prompted. Moreover, a study was conducted, wherein these three dimension were combined. The main results demonstrated superior performance for prerecency items (the first four items) with fast inter-item intervals in the beginning of list presentation and also reliable effects for recency items (the last four items). Precueing and postcueing (recall expectancy) interacted with the item expectancy dimension and also with the type of recall expectancy dimension in systematic ways. The data obtained could not be accouted for a traditional encoding, storage, retrieval or rehearsal terms, whereas the predictability notion seemed more viable. Finally, implications for a general interactionistic theory were also discussed, where the interplay between cognitive skills and predictability characteristics of the task constitute the basic factors.     

Frequency and predictability effects in the Dundee Corpus: An eye movement analysis

Analyses carried out on a large corpus of eye movement data were used to comment on four contentious theoretical issues. The results provide no evidence that word frequency and word predictability have early interactive effects on inspection time. Contrary to some earlier studies, in these data there is little evidence that properties of a prior word generally spill over and influence current processing. In contrast, there is evidence that both the frequency and the predictability of a word in parafoveal vision influence foveal processing. In the case of predictability, the direction of the effect suggests that more predictable parafoveal words produce longer foveal fixations. Finally, there is evidence that information about word class modulates processing over a span greater than a single word. The results support the notion of distributed parallel processing.     

What Is the Model of Trust for Multi-agent Systems? Whether or Not E-Trust Applies to Autonomous Agents

A socio-cognitive approach to trust can help us envisage a notion of networked trust for multi-agent systems (MAS) based on different interacting agents. In this framework, the issue is to evaluate whether or not a socio-cognitive analysis of trust can apply to the interactions between human and autonomous agents. Two main arguments support two alternative hypothesis; one suggests that only reliance applies to artificial agents, because predictability of agents’ digital interaction is viewed as an absolute value and human relation is judged to be a necessary requirement for trust. The other suggests that trust may apply to autonomous agents because predictability of agents’ interaction is viewed only as a relative value since the digital normativity that grows out of the communication process between interacting agents in MAS has always deal with some unpredictable outcomes (reduction of uncertainty). Furthermore, human touch is not judged to be a necessary requirement for trust. In this perspective, a diverse notion of trust is elaborated, as trust is no longer conceived only as a relation between interacting agents but, rather, as a relation between cognitive states of control and lack of control (double bind).     

Evidence for a time constant in rate of speech under delayed auditory feedback

This experiment investigates an apparent discrepancy in experimental measurements of the effect of texture predictability upon reading disruption under delayed auditory feedback (DAF). By measuring relative DAF decrement in three different ways, it is shown that the previous findings can be related; Fillenbaum's hypothesis of increased disruption by DAF with an increase in predictability of the material is rejected, less disruption being obtained after practice on a particular passage. Almost identical ratios of DAF rate divided by normal rate are found irrespective of the type of reading material and stage in practice. This has not been reported previously and suggests that behaviour under DAF may be related to behaviour under normal conditions by a multiplicative constant. These results are also consistent with the notion of limited channel capacity and the partitioning of attention between two sources of information.     

预期性、词频和笔画数对中文词汇识别影响的眼动研究

本研究采用眼动追踪技术,通过对预期性和词频、预期性和笔画数在词汇识别过程中是否存在交互作用进行考察,以探讨预期性效应对词汇识别产生影响的加工阶段。结果显示,预期性和词频、预期性和笔画数之间均不存在交互作用。由此表明,预期性、词频和笔画数均独立地对中文文本阅读中的词汇识别产生显著的影响,该结果符合E-Z读者模型的研究假设。     

词汇预测性对中文高、低阅读技能儿童眼动行为的影响

操纵目标词的预测性、词频和阅读技能水平,考察句子阅读中词汇预测性对高、低阅读技能儿童眼动行为的影响,揭示其在儿童阅读发展中的作用。结果显示：儿童对高预测词的跳读率更高、注视时间更短,且预测性与词频交互影响跳读率和注视时间;预测性对高阅读技能儿童早期的跳读率影响更大,而对低阅读技能儿童晚期的再阅读时间具有更大影响。结果表明：词汇预测性影响儿童阅读的眼动行为和词汇加工,且作用大小和发生时程受阅读技能调节。     

The time course of predictability effects in reading: Evidence from a survival analysis of fixation durations

To investigate the time course of predictability effects in reading, the present study examined distributions of first-fixation durations on target words in a low predictability versus a high predictability prior context. In a replication of Staub (2011), ex-Gaussian fitting demonstrated that the low predictability distribution was significantly shifted to the right of the high predictability distribution in the absence of any contextual differences in the degree of skew. Extending this finding, the present study used a survival analysis technique to demonstrate a significant influence of predictability on fixation duration as early as 140 ms from the start of fixation, which is similar to prior results obtained with the word frequency variable. These results provide convergent evidence that lexical variables have a fast acting influence on fixation durations during reading. Implications for models of eye-movement control are discussed.     

Implicit expectations influence target detection in children and adults

When a sound occurs at a predictable time, it gets processed more efficiently. Predictability of the temporal structure of acoustic inflow has been found to influence the P3b of event‐related potentials in young adults, such that highly predictable compared to less predictable input leads to earlier P3b peak latencies. In our study, we wanted to investigate the influence of predictability on target processing indexed by the P3b in children (10–12 years old) and young adults. To do that, we used an oddball paradigm with two conditions of predictability (high and low). In the High‐predictability condition, a high‐pitched target tone occurred most of the time in the fifth position of a five‐tone pattern (after four low‐pitched non‐target sounds), whereas in the Low‐predictability condition, no such rule was implemented. The target tone occurred randomly following 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 non‐target tones. In both age groups, reaction time to predictable targets was faster than to non‐predictable targets. Remarkably, this effect was largest in children. Consistent with the behavioral responses, the onset latency of the P3b response elicited by targets in both groups was earlier in the predictable than the unpredictable conditions. However, only the children had significantly earlier peak latency responses for predictable targets. Our results demonstrate that target stimulus predictability increases processing speed in children and adults even when predictability was only implicitly derived by the stimulus statistics. Children did have larger effects of predictability, seeming to benefit more from predictability for target detection.     

Effects of contextual predictability and transitional probability on eye movements during reading

In 2 eye-movement experiments, the authors tested whether transitional probability (the statistical likelihood that a word precedes or follows another word) affects reading times and whether this occurs independently from contextual predictability effects. Experiment 1 showed early effects of predictability, replicating S. A. McDonald and R. C. Shillcock's (2003a) finding that words with a high transitional probability (defeat following accept) are read faster than words with a low transitional probability (losses following accept). However, further analyses suggested that the transitional probability effect was likely due to differences in predictability rather than transitional probability. Experiment 2, using a better controlled set of items, again showed an effect of predictability, but no effect of transitional probability. The authors conclude that effects of transitional probability are part of regular predictability effects. Their data also show that predictability effects are detectable very early in the eye-movement record and between contexts that are weakly constraining.     

Studying Individual Differences in Predictability With Gamma Regression and Nonlinear Multilevel Models

Statistical prediction remains an important tool for decisions in a variety of disciplines. An equally important issue is identifying factors that contribute to more or less accurate predictions. The time series literature includes well developed methods for studying predictability and volatility over time. This article develops distribution-appropriate methods for studying individual differences in predictability for settings in psychological research. Specifically, 3 different approaches are discussed for modeling predictability. The 1st is a bivariate measure of predictability discussed previously in the psychology literature, the squared or absolute valued difference between criterion and predictor, which is shown to follow the gamma distribution. The 2nd method extended limitations of previous research and involved understanding predictability in regression models. The 3rd method used nonlinear multilevel models to study predictability in settings where participants are nested within clusters. An application was presented using SAS NLMIXED to understand the predictability of college grade point average by student demographic characteristics. The findings from the application suggest that the 1st-year college performance of English as a second language students were, on average, less predictable whereas females and Whites tended to demonstrate more predictable academic performance than their male or racial/ethnic minority counterparts.     

Policy conflict and policy change as a function of task characteristics II. The effect of task predictability

Brehmer, B. Policy conflict and policy change as a function of task characteristics. II. The effect of task predictability. Scand. J. Psychol., 1973, 14, 220–227.-The hypothesis, derived from experimental studies on policy formation, that the level of agreement reached in a policy conflict situation is positively related to the predictability of the policy task was tested in an experiment conducted in the "lens model" interpersonal conflict paradigm. The results supported the hypothesis, and showed the lower level of agreement in the low task predictability condition was due to the fact that the subjects' policies were less consistent in that condition. The similarity of the systematic aspects of the subjects' policies, on the other hand, was not affected by task predictability.     

语境预测性对阅读中字词加工过程的影响：眼动证据

研究包含3项实验, 通过观察语境预测性与目标词汇的整词词频、词内汉字字频间交互作用, 以探讨阅读中语境预测性如何影响中文词汇加工问题。研究以双字词为例, 实验1操控目标词汇的语境预测性与整词词频, 结果发现, 语境预测性与整词词频交互作用不显著。实验2操控目标词汇的语境预测性与首字字频, 结果发现, 语境预测性与首字字频交互作用不显著。实验1和实验2的贝叶斯分析都倾向于支持交互作用不存在假设。实验3操控目标词汇的语境预测性与尾字字频, 结果发现, 语境预测性与尾字字频交互影响首次注视时间、凝视时间、总注视时间和再注视概率。由此可知, 语境预测性与整词词频、首字字频变量相对独立地影响词汇加工; 语境预测性直接影响词内汉字(尾字)的加工过程。     

语境预测性对中文高低阅读技能儿童预视加工的影响

采用呈现随注视变化的边界范式(boundary paradigm),操作目标词的语境预测性和预视类型,考察高、低阅读技能儿童在词汇预视加工中语境预测效应的差异。结果发现,高、低阅读技能儿童对语境预测性的使用在发生时程上存在差异,高阅读技能儿童从词汇副中央凹预视加工阶段开始利用语境预测性信息,而低阅读技能儿童则在加工晚期更加依赖语境预测性信息,符合预测编码框架理论对儿童语境预测性效应差异的解释。     

The effects of frequency and predictability on eye fixations in reading: implications for the E-Z Reader model

Readers read sentences containing target words varying in frequency and predictability. The observed pattern of data for fixation durations only mildly departed from additivity, with predictability effects that were slightly larger for low-frequency than for high-frequency words. The pattern of data for skipping was different as predictability affected only the probability of skipping for high-frequency target words. Simulations of these data using the E-Z Reader model indicated that a single-process model was unlikely to provide a good fit for both measures. A version of the model that assumes that (a) word-encoding time is additively affected by frequency and predictability and (b) difficulty with postlexical processing of the target word causes a double take accounted for the data while indicating that the relationship between the duration of hypothesized word-encoding stages and observed fixation durations is not likely to be transparent.     

Predictability and the dynamics of position processing in the flash-lag effect

Several models have been proposed to account for the flash-lag effect. One criterion for evaluating alternative models is to consider the separate effects of motion predictability and flash predictability. We first established that flash predictability has an impact on the size of the perceived spatial offset in the flash-lag illusion. We then examined motion predictability by varying the consistency of the motion trajectory. Both manipulations affected the magnitude of the flash-lag illusion. These outcomes suggest that the perception of position is a dynamic process that can be modulated by explicit cues in advance of the flash and by the temporal integration of position information over a consistent motion trajectory. A complete explanation of the flash-lag effect must specify how flash predictability and motion predictability modulate position-processing mechanisms.     

The influence of parafoveal word length and contextual constraint on fixation durations and word skipping in reading

The present study examined the relationship between the predictability of words within a sentence and the availability of parafoveal word length information, on when and where the eyes move in reading. Predictability influenced first-pass reading times when parafoveal word length preview information was correct, but not when it was incorrect. Similarly, for saccades launched from near the target word (wordn), predictability influenced the probability with which it was skipped only when the word length preview was correct. By contrast, for saccades launched farther away from wordn, predictability influenced word skipping regardless of the parafoveal word length preview. Taken together, the data suggest that parafoveal word length preview and predictability can act as a joint constraint on the decision of when and where to move the eyes.     

Saccade launch site as a predictor of fixation durations in reading: comments on Hand, Miellet, O'Donnell, and Sereno (2010)

An important question in research on eye movements in reading is whether word frequency and word predictability have additive or interactive effects on fixation durations. A fair number of studies have reported only additive effects of the frequency and predictability of a target word on reading times on that word, failing to show significant interactions. Recently, however, Hand, Miellet, O'Donnell, and Sereno (see record 2010-19099-001) reported interactive effects in a study that included the distance of the prior fixation from the target word (launch site). They reported that when the saccade into the target word was launched from very near to the word (within 3 characters), the predictability effect was larger for low frequency words, but when the saccade was launched from a medium distance (4-6 characters from the word) the predictability effect was larger for high frequency words. Hand et al. argued for the importance of including launch site in analyses of target word fixation durations. Here we describe several problems with Hand et al.'s use of analyses of variance in which launch site is divided into distinct ordinal levels. We describe a more appropriate way to analyze such data-linear mixed-effect models-and we use this method to show that launch site does not modulate the interaction between frequency and predictability in two other data sets.     

Prospective Evaluation of Perceived Control, Predictability, and Anxiety Sensitivity in the Pathogenesis of Panic

Increasing evidence suggests that anxiety sensitivity (AS) may be a premorbid risk factor for the development of anxiety pathology. Perceived control and predictability have also been implicated as factors relevant to the genesis of anxiety. The principal aim of this study was to extend this work to examine independent and interactive effects of perceived control, predictability, and AS in the pathogenesis of panic. A large nonclinical sample of young adults (N = 1296) was prospectively followed over a 5- week highly stressful period of time (i.e., military basic training). Perceived control and predictability did not independently predict panic. However, there was evidence suggesting that AS interacted with perceived control such that high perceived control regarding basic training was protective against panic for individuals with high AS. Similarly, high perceived predictability during basic training reduced anxiety symptoms for individuals with high AS.