概率大小、损益结果和认知闭合需要对模糊规避的影响

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会力图规避从主观上判断具有模糊概率的事件而偏好具有相同精确概率的事件。本研究探讨了概率大小、损益结果和认知闭合需要对模糊规避的影响。研究发现,在小概率受益的情况下,个体倾向于模糊寻求;在中概率受益的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在高概率受益的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在小概率损失的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在中概率损失的情况下,个体倾向于模糊规避;在高概率损失的情况下,个体倾向于模糊寻求。但是,研究并未发现认知闭合需要对模糊规避有预测作用。     

行为决策中模糊规避研究的回顾与展望

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会偏好有精确概率的事件而不是从主观上判断具有相同模糊概率的事件。自从Ellsberg提出模糊规避的概念以来,模糊规避已在行为决策研究的多个领域得到广泛验证。本文梳理了近五十年来关于模糊规避的研究文献,系统分析了模糊规避的研究范式、心理机制和影响因素,同时提出了未来的研究展望。     

模糊规避的形成机制：基于可评价性假设的视角

模糊规避是指在相同奖赏的情况下,决策者会力图规避从主观上判断具有模糊概率的事件而偏好具有相同精确概率的事件。本研究使用同时评价、单独评价的研究范式从随机事件和自然事件两个领域来探讨模糊规避的形成机制。研究结果表明,当风险事件和模糊事件同时评价时,个体倾向于模糊规避;当风险事件和模糊事件单独评价时,模糊规避会消失。     

自尊与模糊决策中的决策偏好

从自尊的角度出发,与是否需要承担决策结果的责任相结合,探讨了低自尊、中等自尊和高自尊水平下的被试在模糊决策中的决策偏好。结果发现：角色差异对决策偏好没有影响;自尊水平的高低对决策偏好有影响,高自尊被试与中等、低自尊被试相比,更容易模糊规避。支持了高自尊个体比低自尊个体更具有防御反应的理论。     

不同模糊程度下模糊决策的决策偏好

该研究采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的变式,选取二择一的迫选任务,旨在探讨不同球数和不同模糊程度下模糊决策的决策偏好。结果发现,球数的不同对决策的偏好基本上没有影响;而模糊程度的不同,对决策的偏好有影响。具体表现为：模糊程度较高时,被试倾向于模糊厌恶,模糊程度较低时倾向于模糊寻求。     

模糊决策的情境依赖性

实验1采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的研究范式,探究被试对模糊的厌恶倾向以及在决策过程中所采用的决策策略。结果发现：被试对确定选项和模糊选项的选择存在差异;在肯定形式下倾向于确定选项,而在否定形式下则倾向于模糊选项,采用了利益最大化策略。实验2采用艾尔斯伯格悖论的变式,通过操纵概率和任务类型,发现：模糊决策具有情境依赖性,并非任何情况下个体都厌恶模糊。当风险选项不能满足自己的需要,即获胜机率比较小时,人们会偏向模糊选项。     

不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响及其情景依赖性*

研究以Ellsberg选瓶任务为决策材料,探讨了不同任务特征下个体不确定性容忍度对模糊决策中决策偏好的影响。结果发现,获益情景下:高概率时高、低容忍度个体对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均偏好模糊规避;中概率时低容忍度个体比高容忍度个体表现出更低程度的模糊规避,前者倾向于模糊中立,后者倾向于模糊规避;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊中立。损失情景下:高概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊寻求;中概率时低容忍度比高容忍度个体更偏好模糊寻求,前者倾向于模糊寻求,后者倾向于模糊中立;低概率时两者对模糊选项的选择无显著差异,均倾向于模糊规避。这表明,不确定性容忍度对模糊决策偏好产生作用,但这种作用会受到损益概率和损益结果的影响,具有情景依赖性。     

Ambiguity attitudes in qualitative contexts: The role of prior beliefs

Most studies of ambiguity aversion rely on experimental paradigms involving monetary bets. Thus, the extent to which ambiguity aversion occurs outside of such contexts is much less understood, particularly when the situation cannot easily be reduced to numerical terms. The present work seeks to understand whether people prefer to avoid ambiguous decisions in a variety of different qualitative domains (e.g., work, family, love, friendship, exercise, study, and health), and, if so, to determine the role played by prior beliefs in those domains. Across three studies, we presented participants with 24 vignettes and measured the degree to which they preferred risk to ambiguity in each. We also asked them for their prior probability estimates about the likely outcomes in the ambiguous events. Ambiguity aversion was observed in the vast majority of vignettes, but at different magnitudes. It was predicted by whether the vignette involved gain or loss as well as by people's prior beliefs; however, the heterogeneity between people meant that the role of prior beliefs was only evident in an individual-level analysis (i.e., not at the group level). Our results suggest that the desire to avoid ambiguity occurs in a wide variety of qualitative contexts but to different degrees for different people and may be partially driven by unfavorable prior estimates of the likely outcomes of the ambiguous events.     

行为经济学中的损失规避

损失规避是指,人们总是强烈倾向于规避损失：一定数额的损失所引起的心理感受,其强烈程度约相当于两倍数额的获益感受。这种强烈的心理与行为倾向广泛存在于风险与非风险领域,在该两个领域中损失规避的研究范式也不同。损失规避常见于经济和消费等领域,可用于解释行为决策中有悖于规范化理论的诸多现象,如禀赋效应、现状偏差、股权溢价之迷和赢者的诅咒等。然而,损失规避的机制研究还存在许多尚未解决的问题,如损失规避的本质以及适用条件。今后的研究不仅要注重认知角度和情感依恋,还要结合认知过程来研究损失规避的性质和内在机制,以期帮助人们认识、预测及干预由损失规避造成的经济损失和非理性决策。     

汉语歧义句的消解过程

实验以汉语同形且切分层次相同的歧义句为实验材料,采用句子验证任务,着重探讨前语境或后语境在歧义句歧义消解过程中的作用及其时间进程,被试为48名大学生。结果发现：(1)抑制机制受语境位置的制约,前语境的抑制作用优于后语境;(2)ISI为300毫秒时,对歧义句不适当意义的抑制已经发生,但尚未完成;ISI延长到1000毫秒时,对歧义句不适当意义的抑制进一步加强。     

日常经验研究：一种独具特色的研究方法

日常经验研究是一种通过研究日常生活中各种事件发生时人们的瞬时感受而在自发、自然的情景中对人的心理现象、过程进行探索的方法。其目的是通过获得关于个人日常生活中某些特定事件或特定时刻的详细描述,来提取有关思维、情绪、行为的持久性、周期性、变化以及时间结构等方面的信息,并确定上述因素之间的情境性以及倾向性相关。日常经验研究的价值和意义在于在方法论三角互证原则的指导下,与其他各种方法结合起来,帮助研究者从不同角度理解心理现象及其过程,从而达到最大限度地探索、了解人类心理世界的目的     

不同自尊者在赌博情境下的风险规避行为

为了考察不同自尊水平的个体在赌博情境下的风险规避行为,263名大学生被试同时完成外显Rosenberg量表、内隐联想测验和21点赌博游戏。实验结果发现,(1)随着风险的增加,所有被试都表现出风险规避;(2)在高外显自尊水平的个体中,低内隐自尊水平个体比高内隐自尊水平个体表现出更多的风险规避行为;在低内隐自尊的个体中,高外显自尊个体比低外显自尊个体表现出更多的风险规避行为。风险规避行为间接地反映出个体的防御倾向,结果提示,在风险情境中,高外显低内隐自尊个体表现出较高的自我防御倾向。     

损失规避的产生根源

损失规避是指由损失引发的负效用大于由等量收益引发的正效用的现象, 其产生根源能够从神经经济学和进化心理学两个方向进行解释。损失规避的脑机制分为两个系统：主观价值评价系统主要包括纹状体和前额皮层, 与主观价值的评估有关; 情绪唤醒系统主要包括杏仁核和脑岛, 与厌恶等消极情绪有关。在进化心理学的视角下, 通过回顾有关动物决策行为的研究来探索损失规避行为的进化历史, 并结合相关进化理论总结该行为产生的进化原因。未来可探索与行为损失规避相关的神经递质, 进一步研究损失规避的产生根源。     

Happiness in Everyday Life: The Uses of Experience Sampling

This paper uses the Experience Sampling Method data drawn from a national sample of American youth. It examines the proximal environmental factors as well as behaviors and habits that correlate to personal happiness. Momentary-level scores show that reported happiness varies significantly both by day of week and time of day. Furthermore, particular activities are associated with varying degrees of happiness. School activities rate below average scores in happiness, while social, active and passive leisure activities are above average. Particular companions also correlate to differing level of happiness. Being alone rates the lowest levels of happiness, while being with friend corresponds to the highest. Person-level averages of happiness suggest that both higher social class and age correlate with lower levels of happiness, while gender and race do not. Paradoxically, youth who spend more time in school and social activities are happier than those who spend less. Unexpectedly, students who spend more time pleasure reading report lower levels of happiness. Finally, feeling good about the self, excited, proud, sociable, active as well as being in the conditions for flow experience are the strongest predictors of trait happiness.     

Ambiguity Attitudes over Time

Previous research demonstrates that individuals exhibit a stronger level of ambiguity aversion for high probabilities than for low probabilities. Given that risky and ambiguous prospects are often unresolved until a future date (e.g., investment decisions, new product launches, and medical interventions), this study examines the impact of time on ambiguity preferences at different probability levels. Our experimental results indicate that although ambiguity preferences for low‐probability events remain constant, a robust effect of time occurs for high‐probability events. More specifically, temporal distance mitigates ambiguity aversion. This effect is consistent for different elicitation methods (preference rating and probability–ambiguity trade‐off tasks). We propose a dual‐process model (affective versus cognitive processing styles) to explain our results. Affective processing for high‐probability lotteries resolved in the current period increases ambiguity aversion, while cognitive processing leads to less ambiguity‐averse choices for future lotteries. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Impact of Culture on Loss Aversion

Based on the literature on the relationship between culture, emotion, and loss aversion, we derive that culture can influence the degree of loss aversion. To test our hypotheses, we conduct a standardized survey in 53 countries worldwide that includes the questions from the Hofstede survey on cultural dimensions as well as lottery questions on loss aversion. The results show that individualism, power distance, and masculinity increase loss aversion as predicted, whereas the impact of uncertainty avoidance is less significant. Moreover, we also find a relation between the distribution of major religions in a country and loss aversion. In comparison, the connection of loss aversion to macroeconomic variables seems to be much smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

模糊容忍性量表的编制

在对以往相关理论和测量的分析基础上,为模糊容忍做出准确的定义,并参照MSTAT量表的“概括性的模糊定义”项目编制方法,编制模糊容忍性量表。对487名组织内勤员工的调查结果显示,模糊容忍性量表的17个项目聚合为3个维度,且有较好的内部一致性信度、结构效度和同时效度。结论：模糊容忍性量表具有可接受的心理测量学特征,可被用于测量中国人的模糊容忍性。     

词汇歧义消解的脑机制

词汇歧义是语言歧义的一种, 词汇歧义消解受到相对意义频率和语境的影响。半视野研究发现大脑两半球都能在词汇歧义消解过程中根据语境信息选择性地激活歧义词的恰当意义、抑制不恰当意义, 其中左半球的语义选择功能更强; 脑损伤研究发现大脑左、右半球损伤都会导致词汇歧义消解中语义选择障碍, 词汇歧义消解需要大脑两半球的联合作用; 神经成像研究进一步发现额叶与颞叶共同支持词汇歧义消解, 歧义词的恰当意义的选择是由额下回执行的, 语义整合加工是由颞叶负责的。     

经验决策：概念、研究和展望

传统风险决策研究范式中, 决策信息是事先限定的, 即在决策之前呈现各个决策选项的概率和收益, 被试基于这些信息进行决策。已有研究表明, 在传统风险决策任务中人们会高估小概率事件(rare event)。然而最近出现的一种基于不完整信息的决策形式, 即经验决策却对这一发现提出了挑战。研究发现, 人们在进行经验决策时会表现出对小概率事件的低估, 经验决策和传统决策形式之间存在差异。本文主要介绍经验决策的概念及其研究, 并从学习和不确定程度等角度对两种决策形式进行再认识, 以进一步理解经验决策并提出展望。