The Effectiveness of Alternative Preference Elicitation Methods in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

This study compares alternative preference elicitation methods that are currently available in software implementations of the analytic hierarchy process. For the simple problem used in this study, the elicitation methods may be sorted from least to most accurate as follows: (1) direct estimation, (2) graphical multiple bars, (3) graphical pairwise, (4) numeric pairwise and (5) verbal pairwise. However, the most accurate methods are not the easiest to use. Furthermore, actual accuracy differed substantially from users’ perceptions, indicating a need to assist the users in the selection of an appropriate elicitation method. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风险认知的结构,因素及其研究方法

风险认知是心理学的热门研究领域之一。风险认知是人们对影响日常生活和工作的各种因素的心理感受和认识,是测量公众心理恐慌的指标。风险认知的研究方法包括:风险估计,风险认知的测量;风险认知结构具有复杂性。风险认知的影响因素有:个体因素,期望水平,风险沟通,风险的可控程度,风险的性质,知识结构,成就动机,事件风险度。     

投资者风险感知与风险倾向对风险决策的影响——基于民间投资者的样本

采用模拟投资任务和问卷测查的方式,考察了投资者的风险感知、风险倾向对其风险决策的影响,并对风险感知与风险倾向的交互作用进行分析。结果发现：①投资者的风险感知对其风险决策有显著的负向作用;②投资者的风险倾向对其风险决策有显著的正向作用;③风险感知对风险决策的影响作用部分通过风险倾向这一中介完成。     

城市居民风险认知结构研究

尝试探索城市居民风险认知的结构。在深度访谈和文献整理的基础上,研究形成了23个项目的城市居民风险认知调查问卷。探索性因素分析表明城市居民的风险认知结构由5个因子构成,分别是:风险的可控性,风险的可见性,风险的可怕性,风险的可能性和风险的严重性,五个因子共解释了风险认知总变异的54.775%。信效度检验表明,各因子与总分的α系数在0.5799-0.8527之间,分半信度在0.5352-0.8420之间,各因子与总分的相关高于各因子间的相关,都达到了统计学的显著性,同时验证性因素分析也证实了该问卷的构想效度。     

环境中的风险认知特征

采用多维度的心理测量范式,研究公众在“影响程度”、“可控性”、“了解程度”、“影响的持续性”、“发生的可能性”、“结果的严重性”六个维度上对39个环境条目的风险认知特征。研究结果验证了“风险程度指标”,并将环境风险划分为“生态环境”“疾病与灾害”“生活环境”三个大类并探讨其风险认知特征。结果显示,由“客观认识”和“主动作用”两维度形成的认知地图可有效地指导风险沟通。     

Smoking cross-culturally: Risk perceptions among young adults in Denmark and the United States

Research examining smokers’ understanding of their smoking risk reveals that smokers acknowledge some risk but often deny or minimize personal risk. We examined risk perceptions of lung cancer among smokers and non-smokers in a smoking-lenient (Denmark) and a smoking-prohibitive (the United States) culture. Participants were 275 Danish students attending trade schools (mean age 22.6 years) and 297 US students attending community colleges in Florida (mean age 23.6 years). Results revealed cross-cultural differences suggesting that Danish smokers showed greater risk minimization than US smokers. In addition, in both countries the risk of a typical smoker was rated as lower by smokers than non-smokers, and smokers rated their personal risk as lower than they rated the risk of the typical smoker. Cross-cultural differences in moralization of smoking might be one explanation for these findings.     

Risk perception in Taiwan

In a questionnaire study, 51 Taiwanese college students were asked to judge 48 natural and human-made hazards on nine risk characteristics. Another group of 61 students were asked to rate the magnitude of 80 hazards and their attitudes toward these hazards. To evaluate the dimensionality of risk perception, participants' ratings for the nine risk characteristics were analyzed using Profile Analysis via Multidimensional Scaling approach. Two dimensions of risk perception were identified: (i) Involuntary versus Immediate Effect; and (ii) Delayed Effect versus Known to Science and Chronic. The relationships of risk perceptions and perceived public and private responsibilities in risk management were examined. Catastrophic, certain-to-be-fatal, dreaded, and uncontrollable risks were perceived as more deserving of public risk management, while controllable risks that were known to science, known to those exposed, and chronic were perceived as more deserving of private management. In particular, diseases are perceived as most deserving of private risk management and least deserving of public risk management; and technologies are perceived as most deserving of public risk management and least deserving of private risk management.     

原型表征对创造性问题解决过程中的启发效应的影响

以32个科学发明创造问题为实验材料, 采用“学习8个原型-测试8个问题”的两阶段实验范式, 通过操纵原型学习条件(是否有标识或插图)考察了原型的知识表征对创造性问题解决的启发效应的影响, 结果发现：1)标识对原型的激活率在无插图水平上有显著影响, 有标识比无标识原型的激活率更高, 在有插图水平上无显著影响; 插图对原型的激活率有显著影响, 有插图比无插图原型的激活率更高。2)标识和插图都对问题解决的正确率有显著影响, 有标识比无标识正确率更高, 有插图比无插图正确率更高。3)标识和插图在原型激活率和问题解决正确率上都存在显著交互作用, 反映出原型启发的思维过程是复杂的, 表现出灵活性、经济性的特点。     

Motives and Likelihood of Bribery: An Experimental Study of Managers in Taiwan

Many studies of bribery acknowledge the important role of bribe-givers, but their true motives remain unclear. We propose that the likelihood of bribery depends on the willingness of an organization to affiliate with local parties or to be successful in a host country, or to have power over local parties. We further argue that different opportunities, either pervasive or arbitrary, facilitate different types of motives that affect the likelihood of bribery. In addition, we investigate the effect of perceived fairness on the likelihood of bribery. We employ a 3 (motives: affiliation vs. achievement vs. power)?×?2 (opportunities: pervasiveness vs. arbitrariness)?×?2 (perceived fairness: high vs. low) factorial design in experimental settings among Executive MBA students in southern Taiwan. Our findings indicate that, when companies perceive a higher level of distributive fairness, high-achieving organizations are more likely to offer a bribe when the condition is pervasive. When they have a powerful motive, arbitrariness engenders a higher likelihood of bribery. When they perceive less distributive fairness, there are no significant differences between motive and opportunity.     

Risk perception and victim perception: The judgment of HIV cases

There is a vast literature confirming that reactions to different risks are strongly affected by characteristics other than scientific risk estimates; most of this research has concentrated on mapping people's representations of sets of widely varying dangers (e.g. diseases, natural disasters, accidents). This study explored a potentially vital component of risk that cannot be studied by eliciting general reactions to many hazards: the extent to which who is at risk contributes to perceptions and judgments of a risk. While it may be preferable to assume that misfortunes affect the population uniformly, of course the truth is not so egalitarian. Thus, for both theoretical and policy reasons, it is worth exploring psychometrically representations of a particular risk as it affects different people. Using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis, we constructed models of respondents' representations of a disease assumed to be particularly affected by victim perception: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Subjects rated the similarity of all possible pairs among 16 scenarios involving HIV infection; the scenarios contained information about both the victim and the method of contraction. A set of attribute scales as well as political/demographic information allowed us both to interpret the structures and to predict individual differences. The results confirmed that reactions to HIV infection are greatly affected by reactions to the victim. In particular, the perceived distastefulness and riskiness of the method of infection loomed larger than did either the overall likability of the victim or the general riskiness of the victim's behavior. Further, the salience of the most statistically influential dimension, ‘deservedness’, depended significantly on demographic and political characteristics of the respondents, suggesting that the relationship between personal values and risk perception is in part mediated by victim perception. Implications for risk perception work and public policy are discussed.     

Model Selection of Nested and Non-Nested Item Response Models Using Vuong Tests

Abstract

In this paper, we apply Vuong’s general approach of model selection to the comparison of nested and non-nested unidimensional and multidimensional item response theory (IRT) models. Vuong’s approach of model selection is useful because it allows for formal statistical tests of both nested and non-nested models. However, only the test of non-nested models has been applied in the context of IRT models to date. After summarizing the statistical theory underlying the tests, we investigate the performance of all three distinct Vuong tests in the context of IRT models using simulation studies and real data. In the non-nested case we observed that the tests can reliably distinguish between the graded response model and the generalized partial credit model. In the nested case, we observed that the tests typically perform as well as or sometimes better than the traditional likelihood ratio test. Based on these results, we argue that Vuong’s approach provides a useful set of tools for researchers and practitioners to effectively compare competing nested and non-nested IRT models.     

字谜顿悟任务中限制解除和组块分解的机制及其原型启发效应

通过3个实验考察了汉字字谜任务中的限制解除和组块分解机制及其原型启发效应。实验1a表明,字谜的常规型语义比字谜型语义更容易激活,实验1b采用“学习-测试”范式,结果表明在学习阶段启动字谜语义比启动常规语义更有利于测试阶段的常规语义限制的解除。因此实验1表明常规语义和字谜语义的通达性差异是限制形成和限制解除的认知机制。实验2表明,涉及镶嵌或者笔画单元分解的紧组块比相应的松组块解答率更低,反应时更长,这表明组块分解是字谜顿悟的机制之一。实验3通过实验3a和实验3b分别揭示了在限制解除和组块分解上原型启发比非原型启发以及无启发有更大的促进作用。总之,本研究揭示,汉字字谜任务中存在限制解除和组块分解机制并且原型启发可以促进二者的发生。     

工作情景中员工风险认知研究

本研究是风险认知系列研究之一 ,目的是探讨和比较企业中员工及管理人员的风险认知状况 ,以及员工与管理人员认知上的异同。研究采用问卷设计的方法。结果表明 :1员工对 2 0个风险因素的风险程度认知均超过了中性水平 ,“企业效益”仍然被知觉为最高风险点 ;2风险因素空间结构分析 ,进一步证实了风险特征变量间稳定的关系 ,同时也说明本系列研究方法上的合理性 ;3各风险特征变量间的相关 ,反映了员工风险认知中的各种特征 ;4(本研究经过信度和效度检验均达到可接受水平。     

求偶动机对男性冒险行为倾向的影响

基于风险行为的性选择理论, 通过内隐启动的方法探讨了求偶线索与奖赏线索对两性风险行为报告的影响。研究结果显示, 男性接触求偶线索, 与接触奖赏线索相比, 更有可能进行娱乐领域、健康领域与社会领域的风险行为活动; 而女性接触奖赏线索后, 与求偶线索相比, 更有可能会从事社会领域的风险行为活动; 两性接触求偶线索与奖赏线索后都较少可能从事经济领域的风险行为活动。这些结果符合性选择理论, 说明与求偶有关的信息线索能够诱导男性进行高风险活动, 因为在进化过程中冒险行为可以作为好基因的标志增加男性获得配偶的机会。这些结果还揭示了, 求偶动机对男性冒险行为的诱发作用远胜于外部动机(如金钱奖赏), 因为求偶是人类在长期进化过程中形成的本能需求。     

风险容忍对飞行员驾驶安全行为的影响：风险知觉和危险态度的作用

采用问卷法调查了257名中国航线飞行教员、机长和副驾驶, 通过结构方程模型和层次回归分析探讨了风险容忍对飞行员驾驶安全行为的影响, 以及在这一影响过程中风险知觉和危险态度所发挥的作用。结果发现：(1)风险容忍对飞行员驾驶安全行为具有显著的负向影响, 高风险容忍飞行员的驾驶安全行为水平显著低于低风险容忍飞行员; (2)风险知觉在风险容忍对飞行员驾驶安全行为的影响过程中发挥了调节作用, 即高水平的风险知觉削弱了风险容忍对飞行员驾驶安全行为的负向影响。(3)危险态度在风险容忍对飞行员驾驶安全行为的影响过程中发挥了完全中介作用, 且这种中介作用的实现又受到风险知觉的调节, 即危险态度对飞行员驾驶安全行为的影响是有调节的中介效应。     

Risk perception and the location of a repository for spent nuclear fuel

This study investigates lay people's reactions to a repository for nuclear waste. Risk perception is seen as a complex concept, comprising both affective and cognitive components. Attitude towards nuclear power and trust in experts and authorities had a substantial impact on risk perception, while personal knowledge about nuclear waste disposal had no effect. Thus, the more positive one's attitude towards nuclear power is and the more trust one has in experts and authorities, the lower one's risk perception is. Also, reactions were expected to vary with distance between the home district and the location of a repository. These variations differed in nature for people with alternative levels of risk judgement. The distance between the home and a repository affected approval of the proposed site. Distance between home and repository also had an effect on risk feelings and somewhat less on beliefs about consequences. Estimated total risk was directly mediated by beliefs about consequences, but even more so by risk feelings. With regard to risk, one can conclude that it is important to make a distinction between an emotional and a cognitive component of risk perception.     

四字谜问题解决中原型启发的时间抵消与位置效应

根据顿悟的原型启发理论,通过两个实验考察原型启发的时间抵消和位置效应。实验1采用2（字谜类型）×2（原型呈现时间）混合设计,结果发现：松组块字谜的正确率显著高于紧组块字谜;原型谜面消失的正确率显著大于谜面存在的正确率。实验2采用2（原型位置）×2（字谜类型）×2（原型呈现时间）混合设计,结果不仅证明了实验1,且原型位置、字谜类型、原型呈现时间的交互作用显著,原型在靶字谜之前时,紧组块字谜上谜面消失的正确率显著大于谜面存在的正确率;原型在靶字谜之后时,松组块字谜上谜面消失的正确率显著大于谜面存在的正确率。表明字谜顿悟问题解决中存在原型的时间抵消和位置效应,二者连同任务难度共同影响问题解决。     

自我损耗对科学发明问题解决中原型启发效应的影响

采用E-crossing任务和科学发明问题材料,探讨自我损耗对科学发明问题解决中原型启发效应的影响。结果发现：（1）自我损耗在原型激活率、关键启发信息激活率和问题解决正确率上的主效应显著,损耗组的原型激活率、关键启发信息激活率和问题解决正确率均低于控制组;（2）问题解决范式在原型激活率、关键启发信息激活率和问题解决正确率上的主效应显著,“一对一”范式下的原型激活率、关键启发信息激活率和问题解决正确率均高于“十对十”范式。结果表明,自我损耗导致的自我控制资源消耗不利于原型启发效应。     

Relational Risk and Its Personal Correlates in Strategic Alliances

In this study we focus on the perception of one particular type of risk in the context of strategic alliances—relational risk. Perceived relational risk refers to the degree to which decision makers are concerned with the partner's opportunistic behavior in cooperative efforts. We develop a measure of relational risk in strategic alliances, and empirically examine some of its personal correlates. Based on a survey of senior executives of corporations and MBA students, we found partial support for the principal hypothesis that the perception of relational risk for prospective strategic alliances is related to an individual's age and trust in people.     

Predicting Perceived Risk of Crime: a Multilevel Study

With a sample of Italians selected from 71 Italian counties (N = 1,868), we performed two multilevel analyses aimed at predicting the perceived risk of crime at local (i.e., in the participants' county of residence) and at societal (i.e., in the context of Italian society) levels. A significant proportion of the variation in local risk perception was at the county level. The following individual variables predicted higher levels of this variable: indirect victimization, the perception of social and physical disorder, being a woman, being poorly educated, and being an older person. Among the ecological predictors, the crime rate and unemployment rate predicted higher levels of local crime risk perception, while the immigrant rate did not. Perceived risk of crime at the societal level did not show significant variation at the county level. Education, being a man, trusting people, and adhesion to post‐materialistic values predicted lower levels of societal crime risk perception, while number of sons/daughters and exposure to television news increased it. The limitations and possible development of this study are discussed.