The Influence of Confirmation Bias on Memory and Source Monitoring

Two experiments were conducted to examine whether recognition memory for information and/or its source are influenced by confirmation bias. During Phase 1, subjects were shown a summary about the issue of gun control and asked to indicate a position on the issue. During Phase 2, 12 abstracts (Experiment 1) or social media posts (Experiment 2) were shown, one at a time. Posts in Experiment 2 were associated with either friends or strangers. Participants indicated whether they wanted to read a more extensive version of each abstract (Experiment 1) or post (Experiment 2). Phase 3 was the memory phase. Thirty-two abstract titles (Experiment 1) or posts (Experiment 2) were shown one at a time. Participants indicated yes or no, and whether they recognized the titles/posts from the last phase. Recognition memory for information that supported the participants' viewpoint was higher than that for opposing information.     

任务类线索对学习难易度判断及其准确性影响的实验研究

摘要：通过两个实验考察任务类线索（词频、关联性、学习次数）对学习难易度判断及其准确性的影响。结果表明：（1）词频和关联性对学习难易度判断均有显著影响,高频词对、有关联词对的预测成绩显著高于低频词对和无关联词对的预测成绩;（2）高频词对和低频词对的预测成绩均出现高估,但低频词对的估计更准确;有无关联词对相比,无关联词对预测成绩偏差更大,有关联词对的难易度判断更准确;（3）词频高低只影响成绩的预测,不影响实际回忆成绩;关联性既影响对成绩的预测,也影响实际回忆成绩。（4）学习次数对难易度判断没有显著影响,但随学习次数增加,判断准确性降低,出现低估现象。结论：材料因素对学习难易度判断等级具有较稳定的影响;不同材料因素（词频、关联性）对难易度判断准确性的影响方式不同;学习次数对学习难易度判断没有显著影响;学习难易度判断中存在练习伴随低估效应。     

Age differences in moral judgment: Older adults are more deontological than younger adults

In 2 studies, an older and a younger age group morally evaluated dilemmas contrasting a deontological judgment (do not harm others) against a utilitarian judgment (do what is best for the majority). Previous research suggests that deontological moral judgments are often underpinned by affective reactions and utilitarian moral judgments by deliberative thinking. Separately, research on the psychology of aging has shown that affect plays a more prominent role in the judgments and decision making of older (vs. younger) adults. Yet age remains a largely overlooked factor in moral judgment research. Here, we therefore investigated whether older adults would make more deontological judgments on the basis of experiencing different affective reactions to moral dilemmas as compared with younger adults. Results from 2 experiments indicated that older adults made significantly more deontological moral judgments. Mediation analyses revealed that the relationship between age and making more deontological moral judgments is partly explained by older adults exhibiting significantly more negative affective reactions and having more morally idealistic beliefs as compared with younger adults.     

决策中个体差异研究现状述评

决策中个体差异的研究有助于进一步检验和深化传统决策理论。文章回顾了近十年决策个体差异研究的主要变量（人格、认知能力、认知风格和年龄）和研究结果,并简要总结了该类研究的背景、研究范式和理论意义。这些研究一致发现个体差异变量对决策过程、决策表现等具有影响作用,说明个体差异与决策加工中复杂的人-情境间联系有关。文章提出,未来研究应该综合考虑决策情境、情绪和决策主体的理论模型,以期对个体差异在决策中的作用做出更好解释     

The role of impulses in shaping decisions

This paper explores the extent to which decision behavior is shaped by short‐lived reactions to the outcome of the most recent decision. We inspected repeated decision‐making behavior in two versions of each of two decision‐making tasks, an individual task and a strategic one. By regressing behavior onto the outcomes of recent decisions, we found that the upcoming decision was well predicted by the most recent outcome alone, with the tendency to repeat a previous action being affected both by its actual outcome and by the outcomes of actions not taken. Because the goodness of predictions based on the most recent outcome did not diminish as participants gained experience with the task, we conclude that repeated decisions are continuously affected by impulsive reactions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of Group Priorities and Value of Information

In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to model uncertainty about a group's priorities in a multicriteria evaluation problem and develop a methodology to quantify amount of information provided by a sample of priorities. In so doing, we discuss how the quantification of the information content can be used to decide to elicit additional priorities from the group. We illustrate the implementation of our approach and discuss additional insights that it provides using real‐life data from an academic department's priority analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and Validation of the Scientific Reasoning Scale

Scientific findings and innovations play an important role in a range of decisions faced by nonscientists, yet little is known about the skills that nonscientists need in order to read and evaluate scientific evidence. Drawing on research in public understanding of science, cognitive developmental psychology, and behavioral decision research, we develop an individual difference measure of scientific reasoning skills, defined as the skills needed to evaluate scientific findings in terms of the factors that determine their quality. We present the results of three studies assessing its psychometric validity. Our results indicate that the Scientific Reasoning Scale (SRS) is internally consistent and distinct from extant measures of scientific literacy. Participants with higher SRS scores are more likely to have beliefs consistent with the scientific consensus on potentially contentious issues, above and beyond education, political and religious beliefs, and scores on two widely used measures of scientific literacy. Participants with higher SRS scores also had better performance on a task requiring them to analyze scientific information. Our results suggest that the SRS provides a theoretically informed contribution to decoding lay responses to scientific results and controversies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

个体采纳与群体采纳：决策过程中的两类建议采纳行为

决策者借助外界的建议通常能够获得更好的决策结果, 但是个体和群体对待建议的态度和行为却不尽相同。基于已有研究, 阐述了个体和群体在建议采纳过程中的特点并分析了造成二者差异的因素, 主要包括二者在面对决策任务和外界建议时的不同表现。此外, 根据群体动力理论, 未来研究可以从群体的动力源因素(凝聚力, 驱动力, 耗散力)来解释和预测群体的建议采纳及其与个体建议采纳的差异, 以期为不同决策情景下决策人员的合理安排和配置提供参考。     

Exploiting the Wisdom of Others to Make Better Decisions: Suspending Judgment Reduces Egocentrism and Increases Accuracy

Although decision makers often consult other people's opinions to improve their decisions, they fail to do so optimally. One main obstacle to incorporating others' opinions efficiently is one's own opinion. We theorize that decision makers could improve their performance by suspending their own judgment. In three studies, participants used others' opinions to estimate uncertain quantities (the caloric value of foods). In the full‐view condition, participants could form independent estimates prior to receiving others' opinions, whereas participants in the blindfold condition could not form prior opinions. We obtained an intriguing blindfold effect. In all studies, the blindfolded participants provided more accurate estimates than did the full‐view participants. Several policy‐capturing measures indicated that the advantage of the blindfolded participants was due to their unbiased weighting of others' opinions. The full‐view participants, in contrast, adhered to their prior opinion and thus failed to exploit the information contained in others' opinions. Moreover, in all three studies, the blindfolded participants were not cognizant of their advantage and expressed less confidence in their estimates than did the full‐view participants. The results are discussed in relation to theories of opinion revision and group decision making. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Group moral discount: Diffusing blame when judging group members

People lie more when they work as a group rather than alone. However, do people suspect and morally evaluate groups and individuals differently when they are suspiciously successful? In four experiments, we examine whether (a) suspiciously successful individuals and groups are judged and punished differently and (b) individual group members are judged differently from the group as one unit. Results suggest that people suspect successful groups and individuals to the same extent. However, group members are less likely to be suspected, judged negatively, punished, and reported on, when they are judged as separate individuals compared with as a group. The findings demonstrate a bias in judgment of group members, stemming from the method of evaluation—holistic or separate. We suggest that in order to minimize bias when judging misconduct by a group, the moral evaluation and punishment of all group members should be considered simultaneously.     

An effort based analysis of the paradoxical effects of incentives on decision‐aided performance

This study examines the effect of incentives on decision‐aided performance. In particular, the study provides further insight into whether, when, and how incentives affect task performance in the presence of decision aids by (1) replicating previous research showing the negative effects of incentives on performance; (2) investigating whether this effect generalizes to a more realistic scenario in which decision makers have access to additional contextual information not captured by the decision aid; and (3) applying an effort‐based framework to explain the link between incentives and performance. In contrast to the findings of prior research, our study shows that incentives do not necessarily decrease performance in the presence of decision aids. Rather, we demonstrate that the effect of incentives on decision‐aided performance depends on other contextual factors such as the absence or presence of additional contextual information. By further specifying the conditions under which incentives result in increases or decreases to decision‐aided task performance, our results have implications for both future research and the design of incentive systems in practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Numeracy and Intelligence in Health‐Risk Estimation and Medical Data Interpretation

Despite ample evidence that numeracy is an important influence on patient understanding and use of health‐related information, there is a dearth of studies examining the concept's relationship to other individual differences measures that may underlie complex judgments in the health domain. In this study, we compared the relative contributions of selected extant numeracy measures and general intelligence and other measures to varied judgment and decision‐making outcomes. Two hundred participants completed numeracy items, subscales of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scales, the need for cognition scale, and four relevant outcome measures including risk estimation and medical data interpretation. A numeracy scale constructed using item response and confirmatory factor analyses was consistently the strongest predictor across all outcome measures and accounted for unique variance over and above general intelligence. The results support the concept of numeracy as an independent construct that merits consideration in patient communication. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Development of Judgment and Decision Making During Childhood and Adolescence

Research on adult judgment and decision making has focused on deviations from normative models, demonstrating biases and reliance on heuristic shortcuts, thus presenting a very different picture than developmental theories that describe a unidirectional progression toward greater logic and efficiency. Recent research related to this apparent contradiction indicates that children develop competencies to reason effectively and make normative decisions, but also develop biased judgment strategies that are used inappropriately in some situations. We suggest potential explanations for the findings, highlighting the need to consider models that incorporate development in both experiential and analytic information processing systems.     

决策者-建议者系统模型的回顾与前瞻

自从决策者-建议者系统于1995年被提出以来,在决策领域引起了广泛的关注。通过总结决策者-建议者系统的研究范式和过程模型,比较了其与群体决策和团队决策的异同。目前在该系统模型中的主要研究变量涉及信任、建议者信心、专门知识、报酬、任务难度和相似性,已有的理论解释主要包括心理契约理论、态度改变理论、信念修正理论和沉没成本理论。未来的研究应当从变量关系、信任机制、建议提出和任务类型的角度进行专题探讨,并应当开展跨文化研究。     

Exploring the rabbit hole of possibilities by myself or with my group: The benefits and liabilities of activating counterfactual mind‐sets for information sharing and group coordination

The current experiment explored the effect of activating a counterfactual mind‐set on the discussion of unique information and group judgment accuracy. Evidence suggests that a counterfactual mind‐set is characterized by a focused, analytic mental state and, when activated at the group level, improves group judgment accuracy in the murder mystery paradigm (a hidden profile task). We hypothesized that the beneficial effect of the counterfactual mind‐set would only help group problem‐solving tasks if the mind‐set had been activated at the group level, allowing the analytical mind‐set to play out in an atmosphere of synergistic coordination. In contrast, if this highly focused mental state is activated at the individual level, it could impair group judgment quality because inwardly focused analytical individuals may fail to coordinate their behavior with other group members. Consistent with our hypothesis, activating a counterfactual mind‐set at the individual level had a debilitating effect on the group judgment task, whereas activating a counterfactual mind‐set at the group level had a facilitative effect, increasing information sharing, synergistic coordination and judgment accuracy. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of affective information on the professional judgments of more experienced and less experienced auditors

This study examines whether the presence of realistic, yet irrelevant, affective information differentially influences the professional judgments of more experienced and less experienced auditors. In this study, auditors with different experience levels were either provided or not provided with information designed to elicit a negative interpersonal emotional reaction towards a manufacturing client when making an inventory obsolescence risk judgment. The results indicate that the inventory obsolescence risk assessments of less experienced auditors were significantly higher when they were provided with negative affective information on a client than when no such information was provided. No such differences were found for the more experienced auditors. This study suggests that professional experience is one factor that influences individuals' assessments of the informational value of affective reactions. This has implications for developing effective training programs to increase professionals' awareness of the influence that emotional reactions can have on their judgment. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fit between decision mode and processing style predicts subjective value of chosen alternatives

Intuition is associated with a global processing style, whereas deliberation is associated with a local processing style. Drawing on previous research on the effects of decisional fit on the subjective value attached to chosen alternatives, we examined the possibility that a fit between processing style and decision mode results in greater subjective value than a lack of fit. In three experiments employing various combinations of naturally occurring and experimentally manipulated processing styles and decision modes, we found that when congruence was high (i.e., global processing style and intuitive judgment, or local processing style and deliberative judgment), participants judged their chosen item to be more expensive than when congruence was low. These findings indicate that increased fit resulted in higher estimated value. We discuss implications for judgment and decision‐making.     

Group Ethical Decision Making Process in Chinese Business: Analysis From Social Decision Scheme and Cultural Perspectives

Literature concerning group ethical decision making in a business setting has traditionally focused on directly comparing group versus individual decisions and then investigating differences. Analysis of the interactive process of group ethical decision making appears sparse. This study addresses the gap by investigating group decision making from a social decision scheme (SDS) perspective in a Chinese cultural setting. A cohort of Chinese accountancy students evaluated ethical business scenarios individually and then in a group context. Group responses could be explained in terms of both the SDS and the Chinese cultural perspective (zhongyong). Specifically, groups did not select the most ethical choice but rather the most moderate of all choices advocated by the majority (zhongyong). These results show the application of SDS theory in a culturally specific (Chinese) environment and note the impact of culturally specific factors (zhongyong) on business decision making. The implications are significant for business. If ethical decisions are entrusted to groups, the impact of culturally specific factors must be fully appreciated in evaluating the final decision.     

Decision‐making competence: External validation through an individual‐differences approach

This study asks to what extent (a) individuals show consistent performance differences across typical behavioral decision‐making tasks, and (b) how those differences correlate with plausible real‐world correlates of good decision making. Seven tasks, chosen to span the domain of decision‐making skills, were administered to participants in an ongoing longitudinal study providing extensive social, psychological, and behavioral measures. Performance scores on individual tasks generally showed small, positive inter‐task correlations. An aggregate measure of decision‐making competence (DMC) was appropriately correlated with plausible sources, concomitants, and outcomes of good decision making, suggesting the underlying construct's external validity. Higher DMC scores were associated with more intact social environments, more constructive cognitive styles, and fewer ‘maladaptive’ risk behaviors. In each case, DMC adds to the predictive validity of general measures of cognitive ability. These results suggest that poor decision making on common laboratory tasks is related to real‐world antecedents and consequences of poor decision making. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.