Graphical Data Analysis on the Circle: Wrap-Around Time Series Plots for (Interrupted) Time Series Designs

Many data structures, particularly time series data, are naturally seasonal, cyclical, or otherwise circular. Past graphical methods for time series have focused on linear plots. In this article, we move graphical analysis onto the circle. We focus on 2 particular methods, one old and one new. Rose diagrams are circular histograms and can be produced in several different forms using the RRose software system. In addition, we propose, develop, illustrate, and provide software support for a new circular graphical method, called Wrap-Around Time Series Plots (WATS Plots), which is a graphical method useful to support time series analyses in general but in particular in relation to interrupted time series designs. We illustrate the use of WATS Plots with an interrupted time series design evaluating the effect of the Oklahoma City bombing on birthrates in Oklahoma County during the 10 years surrounding the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. We compare WATS Plots with linear time series representations and overlay them with smoothing and error bands. Each method is shown to have advantages in relation to the other; in our example, the WATS Plots more clearly show the existence and effect size of the fertility differential.     

When women evaluate women,nothing succeeds like success: The differential effects of status upon evaluations of male and female professional ability

Male and female subjects evaluated articles supposedly written by either a male or a female author of high or low professional status. Although evaluations by the male subjects appeared to be only slightly affected by the status variable, female subjects exhibited a complex reaction to the status variable and gave their most favorable evaluations to the high status woman and their least favorable evaluations to the low status woman. An evaluation-attribution hypothesis is presented to explain this response pattern. The significance of this response pattern for women who are attempting professional success and for the perception of female professional role models is discussed.The author wishes to thank Brian Peck for his help with data analysis and his insightful comments.     

Use of statistical techniques in studies of suicide seasonality, 1970 to 1997

The effect of seasons on suicides has been suggested repeatedly. In order to reveal a true seasonal pattern, an appropriate statistical technique, which is sensitive to a specific type of cyclic variation in the data, must be chosen. This study is a review of the use of statistical techniques for seasonality and of some important characteristics of study samples that were evaluated from 46 original suicide seasonality articles published in major psychiatric journals. The results showed that statistical techniques were applied in a majority of articles, but they were commonly lacking regarding analyses, which compared seasonal patterns among subgroups of a population. In recent studies more sophisticated statistical techniques were utilized for seasonality, like spectral analyses, as compared with earlier studies, in which the emphasis was on chi-square tests. Lack of reporting essential features of the data, such as the sample size and monthly values of suicides, were frequent. The calendar effect was adjusted only in 11 studies. Some recommendations concerning the methodological and reporting issues are summarized for future articles on the seasonal affect on suicides.     

A statistical model which combines features of factor analytic and analysis of variance techniques

This paper describes a method of matrix decomposition which retains the ability of factor analytic techniques to summarize data in terms of a relatively low number of coordinates; but at the same time, does not sacrifice the useful analysis of variance heuristic of partitioning data matrices into independent sources of variation which are relatively simple to interpret. The basic model is essentially a two-way analysis of variance model which requires that the matrix of interaction parameters be decomposed by using factor analytic techniques. Problems of judging statistical significance are discussed; and an illustrative example is presented.Much of the work on this paper was completed while the author held a U.S.P.H.S. Postdoctoral Fellowship at Yale University (1964–65). Many of the ideas in this paper have been discussed in the author's doctoral dissertation which was submitted to Yale University in 1965.Special thanks are due to Robert P. Abelson for his encouragement and for many helpful and stimulating discussions about problems which arose in the preparation of this paper. I would also like to thank Francis J. Anscombe and Alan T. James for their valuable suggestions and constructive criticism of an earlier draft of this article.     

STALIN AND MARXISM: A RESEARCH NOTE

This article concerns the research done by the author in Stalin's private library. The notes made in the works of Marx, Engels and Lenin suggest that until the end of his life Stalin felt himself in general agreement with these "classics." The choice of books and the notes support the thesis that, despite his historical interest and his identification with some of the tsars as powerful rulers, Stalin always continued to consider himself a Marxist, and that he was uninterested in other systems of thought, including those of traditional Russia.     

Multidimensional successive categories scaling: A maximum likelihood method

A single-step maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed for multidimensional scaling of dissimilarity data measured on rating scales. The procedure can fit the euclidian distance model to the data under various assumptions about category widths and under two distributional assumptions. The scoring algorithm for parameter estimation has been developed and implemented in the form of a computer program. Practical uses of the method are demonstrated with an emphasis on various advantages of the method as a statistical procedure.The research reported here was partly supported by Grant A6394 to the author by Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Portions of this research were presented at the Psychometric Society meeting in Uppsala, Sweden, in June, 1978. MAXSCAL-2.1, a program to perform the computations discussed in this paper may be obtained from the author. Thanks are due to Jim Ramsay for his helpful comments.     

Guaranteed not to shrink: Spiritual direction in pastoral care

Interest in spiritual direction flourishes in all parts of the Christian tradition. The author notes several reactions of Protestants to this development before describing a biblical view of spirituality. He then sets out essential guidelines for spirituality and spiritual direction which are consistent with the Reformed tradition for churches wishing to include prayer and spiritual direction as a dimension of pastoral care.His article was presented initially as one of a series of convocation lectures marking the formal commencement of the Center's work and his installation as Director on February 4, 1982.     

What's in an author's name? Differential evaluations of performance as a function of author's name

Three hundred college students (150 female, 150 male) were asked to evaluate an academic article in the field of politics, psychology of women, or education (judged masculine, feminine, and neutral, respectively) that was written by either a male, a female, or an author with a sexually ambiguous name. The results indicated that ratings of the articles were differentially perceived and evaluated according to the name of the author. An article written by a male was valued more positively than if the author was not male. Furthermore, subjects' bias against women was stronger when they believed that sexually neutral authors were female.We thank Brad Waite for his help in data collection.     

Non-directive moments in a directive world

This article considers how a counselor can best serve his clients in the world as it is, where each human being is exposed to an enormous amount of data he must process. The author has, for some years, struggled with this problem and suggests here an answer that seems most comfortable for him and most useful to his clients. Non-directive moments are recommended for the very reason that the world is predominantly directive.     

Bayesian item selection criteria for adaptive testing

Owen (1975) proposed an approximate empirical Bayes procedure for item selection in computerized adaptive testing (CAT). The procedure replaces the true posterior by a normal approximation with closed-form expressions for its first two moments. This approximation was necessary to minimize the computational complexity involved in a fully Bayesian approach but is no longer necessary given the computational power currently available for adaptive testing. This paper suggests several item selection criteria for adaptive testing which are all based on the use of the true posterior. Some of the statistical properties of the ability estimator produced by these criteria are discussed and empirically characterized.Portions of this paper were presented at the 60th annual meeting of the Psychometric Society, Minneapolis, Minnesota, June, 1995. The author is indebted to Wim M. M. Tielen for his computational support.     

改变“低挫折容忍度”的心理干预及效果评估 —— 一位奥运银牌运动员的个案研究

研究目的是描述对一名奥运选手L在奥运会前一年中进行的心理干预,以改变其“低挫折容忍度”的过程,以及评价这一理性情绪行为疗法与心理技能训练相结合的心理干预的效果。在不同的时间点采用各种评估方法对干预效果进行评估,主要的评估方法包括采用目标获得评价表进行的运动员L自我评估和教练员评估,运动员L、教练员、及搭档的“阶段性总结”评价,以及对L比赛行为的录像资料分析。通过各种评估方法所获得的结果的一致性证明了该干预方法在改变运动员的问题行为方面是有效的。通过对运动员L的问题行为的改变,提升了他在比赛中的运动表现,该运动员与其搭档在2004年雅典奥运会乒乓球男子双打项目上获得了银牌     

The escape-to-Israel syndrome: Variations on the geographic cure

The author conceptualizes a pattern of thought and behavior that can be called the escape-to-Israel syndrome. This pattern is a contemporary variety, appearing primarily in the Jewish population, of the geographic cure: that is, one can solve one's personal dilemmas by moving from one place to another. The syndrome is characterized by a tendency to idealize life in Israel. This idealization, and the viewers' fantasy of their own future in Israel, deflect solid confrontation with genuine personal problems. If, in fact, they do move to Israel, they may experience shock and trauma at the gap between expected reality and the discovered one. This may only compound their emotional difficulties.The author wishes to express his gratitude to Professor Shamai Davidson, Clinical Director of the Shalvata Mental Health Center, Hod HaSharon, Israel, for his critical comments during the preparation of this article.     

Arnold Gesell and the Maturation Controversy

This article examines the work of Arnold Lucius Gesell and argues that he not only paved the way for contemporary research in motor development, but that he and colleagues anticipated fundamental issues about growth that must be addressed by psychologists and neuroscientists who are committed to the advancement of developmental science. Arnold Lucius Gesell was a pioneer in developmental psychology when the field was in its infancy. He worked diligently for the rights of physically and mentally handicapped children to receive special education that would enable them to find gainful employment. Gesell's writings in books and popular magazines increased public awareness of and support for preschool education and better foster care for orphans. Despite these achievements, many of his successors have questioned his views about infant development. Developmental psychologists have criticized Gesell for proposing a stage theory of infant growth that has fallen into disfavor among contemporary researchers. His conception of development as a maturational process has been challenged for allegedly reducing complex behavioral, perceptual, and learning processes to genetic factors. The author rejects this overly simplistic interpretation and contends that Gesell's work continues to stand the test of time.     

Faith, hope, and love: nontraditional therapy in recovery from serious head injury, a personal account

The author, a clinical psychologist, sustained a serious head injury in 1977 when research on the rehabilitation of the head injured was in its early stages and advocacy/support organizations did not exist. Despite the total unavailability of formal rehabilitation and therapy, the author, with the help of his family, was eventually able to return to professional practice and attain a reasonable quality of life. In this account, the author describes his journey toward recovery and the ways in which, 12 years postinjury, he copes with the impairments that remain.     

On self-disclosure: The vulnerable therapist

The therapist may stimulate the family's growth by sharing his personal experiences directly with them. This helps by providing the family with a model of a real (versus symbolic) person and encouraging them to respond in new and competent ways. As a result, the emotional commitment of the therapeutic system may deepen, while unconscious conflicts that have been causing impasses may surface and be resolved. The therapist hopes that his self-disclosure will benefit the therapy, but understands that there are risks involved. Specific guidelines can help in deciding when not to share, what kinds of problems can be revealed, and what attitudes best strengthen this endeavor. Self-disclosure is discussed here in an experiential frame-work. The author illustrates the above points with examples from his own personal clinical and supervisory experiences.The author would like to thank his wife, Linda Barth Garfield, MSS, without whose sustaining support this paper could not have been written, and his partner, Ellen Berman, MD, for her valuable comments and encouragement. The masculine pronoun is used in this paper for convenience, and because the author is often referring to himself.     

建立儒家人文主义的学术传统:由文化“复建”到文化“复兴”

本文回顾了作者跟随杨国枢教授推动本土心理学的学术历程,并依据自己的切身体会,提出本土心理学运动必须以科学哲学作为基础。作者身体力行,在最近二三十年间,深入学习科学哲学的理论,逐步建立本土心理学的相关理论。其最终目标,是打算以儒家文化作为基底,吸纳西方近代文明的菁华,“中学为体,西学为用”,摆脱西方学术的宰制,建立“儒家人文主义”的自主学术传统。作者认为,唯有大力发展本土社会科学,建立华人“自主的社会科学传统”,华人学术社群才有可能走出“学术自我殖民”的心态。     

My Art by the Numbers

The author explains his affinity for numbers as it relates to his work as an artist spanning his long career. This affinity helped him invent one of the first systems for making four-color digital prints. Having been only recently introduced to the book Number and Time, by Marie-Louise von Franz, the author finds that he is in full agreement with her depth psychology theories on number. Recounting a synchronicity that he experienced while writing this paper helped the author to understand Jung’s concept of the unus mundus, as explained by von Franz in Number and Time. He speculates that number archetypes must have evolved in human consciousness over very long periods of time and writes about the number zero as a “recent” example. The author also describes his experience of a spontaneous mathematical vision that led him to create an algorithm, which in turn led him to realize that crystals having fivefold symmetry could exist in nature, which was considered impossible at the time. The author discusses his new inventions of quasi-periodic and random tile patterns, which were inspired by 15th-century Islamic tile patterns, as they related to the aperiodic patterns invented by Roger Penrose in the 20th century. He speculates about the ability of artificially intelligent computer software to be able to generate random quasi-periodic patterns. Lastly, the author recounts a synchronistic experience that occurred during the month of his 72nd birthday, in which his work with numbers is seemingly reciprocated by nature.     

A stochastic model for free recall

A statistical model for verbal learning is presented and tested against experimental data. The model describes a Markov process with a realizable absorbing state, allowing complete learning on some finite trial as well as imperfect retention prior to this trial.This work was carried out while the author was at Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Operated with support from the U. S. Army, Navy, and Air Force.     

On subjective back-referral and how long it takes to become conscious of a stimulus: a reinterpretation of Libet's data

The original data reported by Benjamin Libet and colleagues are reinterpreted, taking into account the facilitation which is experimentally demonstrated in the first of their series of articles. It is shown that the original data equally well or better support a quite different set of conclusions from those drawn by Libet. The new conclusions are that it takes only 80 ms (rather than 500 ms) for stimuli to come to consciousness and that "subjective back-referral of sensations in time" to the time of the stimulus does not occur (contrary to Libet's original interpretation of his results).     

a counselor and change: Reminiscences and Resolutions

Counselors are becoming more aware of the importance of working with large systems to bring about change that will influence individuals. Working as a school counselor, the author attempted to bring about change. His methods resulted in some dramatic occurrences and encouraged him to spend considerable time reflecting on his behavior and developing guidelines for wiser future action. In this article he relates some of his early experiences as a young school counselor and suggests guidelines for bringing about change.