Hypothesis generation,probability judgment,and individual differences in working memory capacity

This research examined the role of working memory (WM) in probability judgment and hypothesis generation using a simulated task that involved estimating the likelihood that particular menu items would be ordered by customers at a dinner. Five main findings were observed. First, judgments of the likelihood of individual items were made relative to alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Second, the number of alternatives retrieved was positively correlated with a measure of WM-capacity (the operation-span task). Third, participants' probability judgments were subadditive (summing to well over 100%). Fourth, the degree to which participants' judgments were subadditive was affected by the number and strength of the alternatives retrieved from long-term memory. Fifth, the degree to which participants were subadditive was negatively correlated with WM-capacity. The results suggest that individual differences in WM-capacity are fundamental to hypothesis generation and probability judgment.     

MINERVA‐DM and subadditive frequency judgments

There is considerable evidence that frequency (and probability) judgments are often subadditive. That is, the frequency judgment assigned to an event is often less than the sum of the frequency judgments assigned to the mutually exclusive component events that together form it. Explanations for subadditive judgments have typically relied on relatively high‐level cognitive constructs such as the availability and representativeness heuristics. A lower‐level explanation of subadditivity is presented in this paper through a model of memory and judgment processes, MINERVA‐DM. Under MINERVA‐DM, subadditivity is influenced by the similarity of the representations of the judged component events in memory to one another and by the placement of decision criteria. Results from two experiments support the model predictions. The first examines the effects of component event similarity on subadditivity. The second replicates the first and also provides support for the model's prediction of the effects of payoffs on similarity criteria. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contrasting stochastic and support theory accounts of subadditivity

Numerous studies have found that likelihood judgment typically exhibits subadditivity in which judged probabilities of events are less than the sum of judged probabilities of constituent events. Whereas traditional accounts of subadditivity attribute this phenomenon to deterministic sources, this paper demonstrates both formally and empirically that subadditivity is systematically influenced by the stochastic variability of judged probabilities. First, making rather weak assumptions, we prove that regressive error (or variability) in mapping covert probability judgments to overt responses is sufficient to produce subadditive judgments. Experiments follow in which participants provided repeated probability estimates. The results support our model assumption that stochastic variability is regressive in probability estimation tasks and show the contribution of such variability to subadditivity. The theorems and the experiments focus on within-respondent variability, but most studies use between-respondent designs. Numerical simulations extend the work to contrast within- and between-respondent measures of subadditivity. Methodological implications of all the results are discussed, emphasizing the importance of taking stochastic variability into account when estimating the role of other factors (such as the availability bias) in producing subadditive judgments.     

Probability judgment in three-category classification learning

People give subadditive probability judgments--in violation of probability theory--when asked to assess each in a set of 3 or more mutually exclusive hypotheses, as indicated by their sum exceeding 1. Three potential evidential influences on subadditivity--cue conflict, cue frequency, and cue redundancy--are distinguished and tested in 5 experiments using a classification-learning task. Results indicate that (a) judgments of probability and of frequency are systematically subadditive even when the judgments are based on cues learned within the experimental context, (b) cue conflict has a reliable influence on the degree of subadditivity, and (c) judgments in this context are well described by a linear-discounting model within the framework of support theory.     

Differences between probability and frequency judgments: The role of individual differences in working memory capacity

Most theories of probability judgment assume that judgments are made by comparing the strength of a focal hypothesis relative to the strength of alternative hypotheses. In contrast, research suggests that frequency judgments are assessed using a non-comparative process; the strength of the focal hypothesis is assessed without comparing it to the strength of alternative hypotheses. We tested this distinction between probability and frequency judgments using the alternative outcomes paradigm (Windschitl, Young, & Jenson, 2002). Assuming that judgments of probability (but not judgments of frequency) entail comparing the focal hypothesis with alternative hypotheses, we hypothesized that probability judgments would be sensitive to the distribution of the alternative hypotheses and would be negatively correlated with individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity. In contrast, frequency judgments should be unrelated to the distribution of the alternatives and uncorrelated with WM-capacity. Results supported the hypotheses.     

基于客体工作记忆内容的保持对时间判断的影响

本研究通过操作工作记忆内容的有效性,探讨了记忆内容的保持对时间判断的影响。采用不规则的客体作为实验材料,使时间任务中的刺激与工作记忆内容匹配或不匹配。实验1采用工作记忆和时间判断的双任务范式,要求被试首先记忆一个客体,然后在每个试次的最后判断测试刺激是否与记忆项相同。在延迟阶段,被试判断连续出现的两个刺激的时距哪个更长（或更短）。实验2中,要求被试忽略第一个刺激,仅完成时间判断任务。结果发现,相比单任务的计时,双任务条件下,工作记忆内容的保持延长了时间判断的时间。而且,在记忆匹配和知觉匹配条件下,匹配刺激呈现的时间越长,正确率越低,反应时越长。这说明记忆内容的保持增加了决策的难度,工作记忆内容对时间判断的可能是由记忆内容引起的注意定向造成的。     

决策与判断中的分解效应

分解效应是人类主观判断中的一种较稳固的行为偏差,并且判断结果会对随后的决策产生重要影响,因此,对该领域研究成果的全面梳理具有重要的理论意义和实际价值。本文主要介绍了支持理论中的分解效应,总结梳理了概率判断与时间判断中分解效应的研究,综述了其他社会判断中的分解效应研究成果,展望了决策与判断中的分解效应的未来研究方向。通过上述内容的阐述,希望能为该领域研究者提供新的思路,推动国内相关领域研究的发展。     

Subadditivity in Memory for Personal Events

Abstract—People's subjective probability judgments of external events are often subadditive (i.e., the probability estimates of component parts of a single event sum to greater than one)—a clear violation of the extensional nature of probability theory. We show that people's frequency judgments of personal events can also be subadditive. We found subadditivity even when component events made up a proper subset of a wider composite event. Our findings imply that the somewhat arbitrary choice of the specificity with which questions are asked can produce widely different reports for the same composite events.     

长时联结表征对工作记忆的抑制效应

本研究通过两个实验探讨了长时记忆联结表征如何影响当下工作记忆任务的加工。长时记忆联结表征采用无语义联系、无视觉相似性的Emoji图片对, 提前一天让被试完成联结表征的建立, 正式工作记忆任务采用独立探测的变化觉察范式。实验1控制呈现时间(500 ms / 1000 ms)与呈现方式(联结/独立), 发现两种呈现时间均显示出联结条件的正确率与记忆容量显著低于独立条件, 说明长时记忆联结表征抑制了当前工作记忆的加工。实验2设置了记忆项目数(2/4/6项)与呈现方式(联结/独立), 采用alpha震荡作为脑电指标, 考察长时联结表征在工作记忆维持阶段的作用。结果发现在维持阶段, 独立条件的alpha震荡随着记忆项目数量的增加而增大(2项 < 4项 < 6项), 而联结条件在4项已经到达顶点(2项 < 4项 = 6项)。实验2进一步说明长时联结表征在维持阶段降低了当前工作记忆容量。本研究的两个实验结果表明, 长时记忆联结表征对当前的工作记忆任务有一定的抑制作用, 这种抑制作用产生的机制可能来自于联结表征干扰了维持阶段的注意分配。     

A processing approach to the working memory/long-term memory distinction: evidence from the levels-of-processing span task

Recent theories suggest that performance on working memory (WM) tasks involves retrieval from long-term memory (LTM). To examine whether WM and LTM tests have common principles, Craik and Tulving's (1975) levels-of-processing paradigm, which is known to affect LTM, was administered as a WM task: Participants made uppercase, rhyme, or category-membership judgments about words, and immediate recall of the words was required after every 3 or 8 processing judgments. In Experiment 1, immediate recall did not demonstrate a levels-of-processing effect, but a subsequent LTM test (delayed recognition) of the same words did show a benefit of deeper processing. Experiment 2 showed that surprise immediate recall of 8-item lists did demonstrate a levels-of-processing effect, however. A processing account of the conditions in which levels-of-processing effects are and are not found in WM tasks was advanced, suggesting that the extent to which levels-of-processing effects are similar between WM and LTM tests largely depends on the amount of disruption to active maintenance processes.     

工作记忆的存储时间及目标时距对时间知觉的影响

本研究操作记忆信息与计时开始之间的时间间隔（ISI）和目标时距,探讨工作记忆影响时间判断的灵活性。被试首先记忆一个客体,然后在每个trial的最后判断测试刺激是否与记忆项相同;在延迟阶段,被试完成时间判断任务,即判断相继出现的两个刺激的时距哪个更长（或更短）。时间任务中的一个刺激与记忆内容完全相同,相应的另一个刺激与记忆内容在形状和颜色上都不同。重复条件下,被试忽略第一个刺激,仅完成时间判断任务。结果发现,时间间隔（ISI）短时,记忆匹配条件下的准确率更高,匹配刺激延长了知觉的时间;但随着时间间隔的增加,工作记忆匹配对时间判断的影响降低甚至消失。并且,长或短ISI,记忆任务或重复条件下,目标时距长时,记忆匹配反而缩短了知觉的时间。研究说明工作记忆对时间判断的影响是灵活的,受到注意或工作记忆等高级认知系统的调控。     

Aging and conditional probability judgments: a global matching approach

Age differences in bias in conditional probability judgments were investigated based on predictions derived from the Minerva-Decision Making model (M. R. P. Dougherty, C. F. Gettys, & E. E. Ogden, 1999), a global matching model of likelihood judgment. In this study, 248 younger and older adults completed frequency judgment and conditional probability judgment tasks. Age differences in the frequency judgment task are interpreted as an age-related deficit in memory encoding. Older adults' stronger biases in the probability judgment task point to age differences in criterion setting. Age-related biases were eliminated when age groups were equated on memory encoding by means of study time manipulation. The authors conclude that older adults' stronger judgment biases are a function of memory impairment.     

The reaction-time task-rule congruency effect is not affected by working memory load: further support for the activated long-term memory hypothesis

Previous studies claimed that task representation is carried out by the activated long-term memory portion of working memory (WM; Meiran and Kessler in J Exp Psychol Human Percept Perform 34:137–157, 2008). The present study provides a more direct support for this hypothesis. We used the reaction-time task-rule congruency effect (RT-TRCE) in a task-switching setup, and tested the effects of loading WM with irrelevant task rules on RT-TRCE. Experiment 1 manipulated WM load in a between-subject design. WM participants performed a color/shape task switching, while having 0, 1 or 3 numerical task rules as WM load. Experiment 2 used a similar load manipulation (1 or 3 rules to load WM) in a within-subject design. Experiment 3 extended these results by loading WM with perceptual tasks that were more similar to the shape/color tasks. The results show that RT-TRCE was not affected by WM load supporting the activated long-term memory hypothesis.     

Working memory and counterexample retrieval for causal conditionals

The present study is part of recent attempts to specify the characteristics of the counterexample retrieval process during causal conditional reasoning. The study tried to pinpoint whether the retrieval of stored counterexamples (alternative causes and disabling conditions) for a causal conditional is completely automatic in nature or whether the search process also demands executive working memory (WM) resources. In Experiment 1, participants were presented with a counterexample generation task and a measure of WM capacity. We found a positive relation between search efficiency, as measured by the number of generated counterexamples in limited time, and WM capacity. Experiment 2 examined the effects of a secondary WM load on the retrieval performance. As predicted, burdening WM with an attention-demanding secondary task decreased the retrieval efficiency. Both low and high spans were affected by the WM load but load effects were less pronounced for the most strongly associated counterexamples. Findings established that in addition to an automatic search component, the counterexample retrieval draws on WM resources.     

Text cohesion and metacomprehension: Immediate and delayed judgments

In three experiments, we examined comprehension judgments made after a piece of text had been read. We propose that such metacognitive judgments are based on the content of working memory at the exact moment of assessment. Generally speaking, this working metacognition hypothesis is in agreement with Koriat's cue utilization approach, which implies that different elements of information will be available (and used) depending on the moment at which a judgment is made. More specifically, our hypothesis focuses on the management of working memory during reading as a cause for cue (un)availability. In support of these views, the results of Experiment 1 showed that a cohesion manipulation affecting the comprehension of specific paragraphs influences judgments only on these paragraphs, and not on judgments on the whole text. In Experiment 2, we showed that an interfering task that takes place just before this paragraph judgment is made wipes out this cohesion effect. Experiment 3 showed, on the other hand, that the whole-text judgment may, nevertheless, be affected by text cohesion, provided that the readers keep an access to the text when the judgment is made. These results support the idea that working memory management makes different cues available for metacognitive ratings at different delays.     

On splitting and merging categories: A regression account of subadditivity

Frequency judgments tend to be subadditive: A category’s frequency is judged to be lower than the summed frequency of its subcategories. Thus, by splitting or merging categories, subjective frequencies increase or decrease, respectively. We offer an account of this phenomenon that is based on the statistical principle of regression. Because empirical information is never noise-free, high frequencies are underestimated, and low frequencies are overestimated. The underlying regression principle explains available evidence on subadditivity and allows novel predictions. The findings from two experiments supported predictions derived from the regression account of frequency estimates for split and merged categories: Subadditivity varied systematically as a function of the two parameters determining regression (extremity and reliability). More extreme frequencies and reduced reliability led to increased regression effects. Theoretical implications for subadditive judgments (of frequency, probability, and/or value) are discussed. Although other factors may contribute to subadditivity, their influence needs to exceed the baseline expected from the regression model alone.     

The role of short-term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from limited task experience or from short-term memory limitations. As predicted by the naive sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), overconfidence with probability judgment is rapidly reduced by additional task experience, whereas overconfidence with intuitive confidence intervals is minimally affected even by extensive task experience. In contrast to the minor bias with probability judgment, the extreme overconfidence bias with intuitive confidence intervals is correlated with short-term memory capacity. The proposed interpretation is that increased task experience is not sufficient to cure the overconfidence with confidence intervals because it stems from short-term memory limitations.     

I see into your mind too well: working memory adjusts the probability judgment of others' mental states

Although an increasing number of studies on adults have indicated that working memory (WM) contributes to the ability to understand the mental states of others (i.e., theory of mind), the detailed mechanism by which WM contributes to successful reasoning has not previously been revealed. This study shows that WM modulates the degree of attribution of one's own knowledge to others' mental states. Participants were asked to read a story twice (Experiment 2) or as carefully as possible (Experiment 3) and to estimate the probability percentages of possible choices for a naive protagonist's behavior. The participants were then asked to maintain either a two- or seven-letter alphabet string (i.e., a light or heavy WM load, respectively) during the probability estimation but not during the story comprehension. The results showed that compared to the participants with a light WM load, those with a heavy WM load estimated a significantly higher probability of the choice indicating that the protagonist would behave on the basis of a fact that the participants knew but the protagonist did not. This result indicates that WM moderates the extent to which adults attribute their own knowledge to others' mental states. The role of WM in theory of mind and in heuristic strategy for making probability judgments was then discussed.     

Working memory affects false memory production for emotional events

Whereas a link between working memory (WM) and memory distortions has been demonstrated, its influence on emotional false memories is unclear. In two experiments, a verbal WM task and a false memory paradigm for negative, positive or neutral events were employed. In Experiment 1, we investigated individual differences in verbal WM and found that the interaction between valence and WM predicted false recognition, with negative and positive material protecting high WM individuals against false remembering; the beneficial effect of negative material disappeared in low WM participants. In Experiment 2, we lowered the WM capacity of half of the participants with a double task request, which led to an overall increase in false memories; furthermore, consistent with Experiment 1, the increase in negative false memories was larger than that of neutral or positive ones. It is concluded that WM plays a critical role in determining false memory production, specifically influencing the processing of negative material.     

工作记忆表征精度加工需求对注意引导的影响

采用注意捕获范式, 通过行为和事件相关脑电位(ERP)实验, 探讨工作记忆表征精度加工需求对注意引导的影响, 行为结果发现, 在低精度加工需求条件下, 只有一个工作记忆表征引导注意, 且处于高激活状态的工作记忆表征产生的注意捕获大于低激活状态; 而在高精度加工需求条件下, 有两个工作记忆表征引导注意, 且处于高、低激活状态的工作记忆表征产生的注意捕获没有差异。ERP结果显示, 高精度加工需求条件下诱发的NSW和LPC大于低精度加工需求条件; 在高精度加工需求条件下, 干扰项与记忆项匹配比不匹配时, 诱发更大的N2和更小的N2pc, 而在低精度加工需求条件下, 干扰项与记忆项匹配和不匹配时诱发的N2、N2pc没有差异。研究表明, 工作记忆表征精度加工需求影响注意引导的机制可能是高精度加工需求下, 工作记忆表征消耗的认知资源增加, 搜索目标获得的资源减少, 干扰项捕获的注意增加。