Why and when peer prediction is superior to self-prediction: the weight given to future aspiration versus past achievement

Peer predictions of future behavior and achievement are often more accurate than those furnished by the self. Although both self- and peer predictions correlate equally with future outcomes, peers tend to avoid the degree of overoptimism so often seen in self-predictions. In 3 studies, the authors tested whether this differential accuracy arises because people give more weight to past behavior when predicting others, but emphasize agentic information, in particular data about their aspiration level, when predicting the self. Studies 1 and 3 showed that the exact same participants rated past behavior more diagnostic of future performance when predicting another person but viewed aspiration-level data as more valuable when someone else was trying to predict them. In Studies 2 and 3 (predicting an upcoming exam score and performance in a lab task, respectively), participants gave greater weight in self-predictions to aspiration-level data than did a yoked peer, who instead gave greater weight to evidence of past achievement. This differential weighting explained why peer predictions tended to be less optimistic and, thus, more accurate. Discussion centers on strategies for predicting future behavior and why people may remain ignorant of their own incompetence despite feedback.     

Suicide Among Health Care Practitioners and Technicians in Colorado: An Epidemiological Study

Suicide is a public health concern with risks that vary between occupation groups. Many suicide victims with a health care occupation die by poisoning, but few studies have epidemiologically studied this association. The objective of this study was to quantify the increased risk of suicide death by poisoning among health care professionals in Colorado. Eleven years (2004–2014, N = 8,753) of suicide deaths in Colorado were compiled from the Colorado Violent Death Reporting System. A retrospective cohort study using multivariate logistic regression was conducted to examine the risk associated with having a health care occupation and eventual suicide death by poisoning, compared independently to firearm and hanging methods. Suicide victims with a health care occupation were more likely to die by poisoning rather than by hanging (RR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.41–1.68) or firearm (RR 1.79, 95% CI: 1.60–2.01), when compared to suicide victims without a health care occupation. The association between health care occupation and suicide method was significantly (p = .032) modified by gender. The results show that health care workers who die by suicide have an increased risk of eventual suicide death by poisoning rather than by firearm or hanging. These results can be used to inform tailored suicide prevention efforts in health care professionals.     

Suicide Risk Assessment and Risk Formulation Part I: A Focus on Suicide Ideation in Assessing Suicide Risk

The main procedure used by clinicians to determine whether an individual may be at risk of suicidal behaviors is the suicide risk assessment (SRA). The purpose of the SRA is to identify risk and protective factors that then provide the data for the formulation of suicide risk. The suicide risk formulation (SRF) assigns a level of suicide risk that ideally leads to triage and treatment deemed appropriate for that level of risk. Some of the problems with the SRA are explored here, with an emphasis on addressing the over reliance on communicated suicide ideation, and recommendations are made for improvements. Part II of this article (Berman & Silverman, 2013, also appears in this issue of STLB) examines the process of an SRF and, similarly, makes recommendations to improve clinical practice toward the desired end of saving lives.     

Suicide intervention trainees' knowledge of myths about suicide

The responses of 70 trainees in suicide intervention to 10 Suicide Opinion Questionnaire items were evaluated for accuracy of their knowledge about suicide myths. Participants were Canadian adults (62 women, 8 men, M (age) = 35 yr.) representing a wide variety of occupations and educational backgrounds. Analysis indicated knowledge for most items was high but less accurate for items concerning the most common method of suicide and suicide risk across the lifespan. Those trained in suicide intervention were more knowledgeable on four items than those awaiting training; they more frequently knew that most suicides are not triggered by an argument with a spouse, people who are depressed are more likely to commit suicide, a person whose parent has committed suicide is at greater risk for suicide, and that shooting is the most common method of suicide in Canada.     

Counselor Confidence and Accuracy of Prognoses of Success or Failure

This study assessed the accuracy of predictions of freshman and overall college scholastic performance made by groups of high school counselors, college advisors, and counseling psychologists from a university counseling center in relation to the confidence of these judges that their prognoses were accurate. Predictions were made from three sets of case information. The results revealed that: (1) the degree of confidence counselors indicated in their freshman and overall college “pass” predictions was appropriately related to accuracy; (2) counselor confidence in freshman “fail” predictions was not related to accuracy although the “fail” judgments tended to be more accurate than the “pass” prognoses; (3) counselor confidence in their overall “fail” predictions was not significantly related to accuracy and, unlike the results for the freshman judgments, the overall “fail” predictions were not more accurate than the “pass” predictions; (4) the amount of case data available was not related to counselor predictive accuracy.     

The Sexual Harassment–Suicide Connection in the U.S. Military: Contextual Effects of Hostile Work Environment and Trusted Unit Leaders

Sexual harassment has been associated with suicidal behaviors, and with the rise in suicides in the U.S. military, sexual harassment's role in suicide has been of growing interest. Lacking are studies that examine group‐ or unit‐level variables in the relationship of sexual harassment to suicidal behaviors (thoughts, plans, and attempts). In this study, survey data from soldiers (12,567 soldiers in 180 company‐sized units) who completed the Unit Risk Inventory administered during calendar year 2010 were analyzed using hierarchical linear modeling. At the individual level, sexual harassment was associated with a fivefold increase for risk of suicide. Reporting that leaders could be trusted was associated with a decreased suicide risk by about one‐third. There was no statistically significant interaction between sexual harassment and trusted leaders in predicting the suicidal behaviors. At the group level, units or companies having higher levels of sexual harassment also had soldiers three times more at risk for suicide. A cross‐leveling effect was also observed: Among units having higher levels of sexual harassment, the negative correlation (buffering effect of unit leaders on suicidal behaviors) was diminished. Implications of findings for preventing sexual harassment and suicide risk are discussed.     

The Validity of a Brief Risk Assessment Tool for Predicting Suicidal Behavior in Veterans Utilizing VHA Mental Health Care

Suicide risk among military veterans is an important and ongoing concern. The Veterans Administration (VA) mandates suicide risk screening of all veterans seen for mental health issues, but little is known about the effectiveness of this screening. A retrospective chart review to examine all suicide risk screens at VA San Diego between October and December 2012 (n = 3,365) was conducted to assess whether results were associated with suicidal behavior over the subsequent 12 months. Patients judged to be at increased risk for suicide were 3 to 16 times more likely to attempt suicide and 7 to 25 times more likely to engage in self‐directed violence over the next 12 months compared with others. The screening tool may be a useful addition to clinical practice.     

Investigating Correlates of Suicide Among Male Youth: Questioning the Close Affinity Between Suicide Attempts and Deaths

This study was based on a sample of male high school students who completed National Longitudinal Adolescent Health Surveys in 1994, 1995, and 2001. We studied these students prospectively, comparing those who later died by suicide (n = 21) with those who were still living (n = 10,101). We employed chi‐square and analysis of variance tests for statistical significance between suicide decedents and living respondents. Results showed suicide decedents were more likely to have experienced the suicide loss of another family member, to have been expelled from school, to have engaged in more delinquent actions including fighting, and to have greater involvement with the criminal justice system. Although one might have expected suicide casualties to have exhibited a greater amount of suicidal thoughts, attempts, and higher incidences of suicidality among their friends, our analyses did not find that these factors were associated with actual suicides. Should these findings be replicated, this would point to a need to refine youth suicide risk assessments. Collecting life histories, as well as identifying patterns of delinquency and fighting, may serve as more potentially fruitful means for assessing genuine suicide risk than some traditional risk assessment methods.z     

Assessing Legal Strains and Risk of Suicide Using Archived Court Data

Relatively little is known about legal entanglements and suicide risk. This matched case–control study estimated the risk of suicide associated with legal strains using online court archives, a novel source of exposure data. Court records linked to suicide deaths (N = 315), controls (N = 630), and unintentional injury and poisoning deaths (N = 630) for an urban county from 2000 to 2005 revealed that nearly a third of suicide victims had recent court involvement, twice the proportion among controls. Misdemeanors, car accidents, and foreclosures were each associated with a threefold risk of suicide. Implications for suicide prevention and research are discussed.     

Body Mass Index Is an Important Predictor for Suicide: Results from a Systematic Review and Meta‐Analysis

Public health concerns for the independent management of obesity and suicidal behavior are rising. Emerging evidence suggests body weight plays an important role in quantifying the risk of suicide. In light of these findings, we aimed to clarify the association between body mass index (BMI) and suicidal behavior by systematically reviewing and evaluating the literature. Studies were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and CINAHL from inception to January 2015, supplemented by hand and grey literature searches. Study screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were conducted in duplicate. We included 38 observational studies. Meta‐analyses supported an inverse association between BMI and completed suicide. Pooled summary estimates demonstrated that underweight was significantly associated with an increased risk of completed suicide (HR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.36, p = .002), and obesity (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.89, p = .003) and overweight (HR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.82, p < .0001) were significantly associated with a decreased risk of completed suicide relative to normal weight. A qualitative summary of the literature demonstrated conflicting evidence regarding the association between BMI and attempted suicide and revealed no association between BMI and suicidal ideation. BMI may be used to aid the assessment of suicide risk, especially that of completed suicide. However, unmeasured confounders and systematic biases of individual studies limit the quality of evidence.     

Religion and Suicide: Buddhism,Native American and African Religions,Atheism, and Agnosticism

Research has repeatedly demonstrated that religiosity can potentially serve as a protective factor against suicidal behavior. A clear understanding of the influence of religion on suicidality is required to more fully assess for the risk of suicide. The databases PsycINFO and MEDLINE were used to search peer-reviewed journals prior to 2008 focusing on religion and suicide. Articles focusing on suicidality across Buddhism, Native American and African religions, as well as on the relationship among Atheism, Agnosticism, and suicide were utilized for this review. Practice recommendations are offered for conducting accurate assessment of religiosity as it relates to suicidality in these populations. Given the influence of religious beliefs on suicide, it is important to examine each major religious group for its unique conceptualization and position on suicide to accurately identify a client’s suicide risk.     

Association between obesity and suicide in woman,but not in man: a population-based study of young adults

The relationship between obesity and suicide risk is still unclear with controversial research results. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between obesity and suicide risk for men and women in a population-based study of young adults. This is a cross-sectional population-based study that identified young adults between 18 and 35 years of age. Suicide risk was investigated through the structured clinical interview Mini. Weight and height were assessed, and participants were classified as normal-weight body mass index (BMI < 30) or obese (BMI > 30). The prevalence of obesity was of 19.9% of the total sample (n = 1953). Obesity was more prevalent among women and participants between 27 and 35 years of age. Suicide risk was present in 13.0% of the sample and more prevalent among women. In our study we found an association between obesity and suicide risk for women, but not for men. Obesity was associated with a higher prevalence of suicide risk in women. Given the strength of the relationship between BMI and suicide, identifying the mechanisms associated with obesity, especially for women, can lead to new insights into the prevention of suicide risk     

Coping Card Usage can Further Reduce Suicide Reattempt in Suicide Attempter Case Management Within 3‐Month Intervention

This randomized controlled trial was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of using crisis coping cards (n = 32) in the case management of suicide prevention compared with case management without the use of coping cards (n = 32) over a 3‐month intervention period. The generalized estimating equation was used to examine the interaction effect between treatments and time on suicide risk, depression, anxiety, and hopelessness. Results indicated that subsequent suicidal behaviors, severity of suicide risk, depression, anxiety, and hopelessness were reduced more in the coping card intervention group compared to the case management only group. Moreover, for the survival curves of time to suicide reattempt, the coping card group showed a significantly longer time to reattempt than the case management only group at 2‐month and 3‐month intervention periods.     

Long‐Term Effects of the Family Check‐Up in Early Adolescence on Risk of Suicide in Early Adulthood

The impact of the Family Check‐Up (FCU), a school‐based prevention program, as delivered in public secondary schools on suicide risk across adolescence, was examined. Students were randomly assigned to a family‐centered intervention (N = 998) in the sixth grade and offered a multilevel intervention that included (1) a universal classroom‐based intervention, (2) the FCU (Dishion, Stormshak, & Kavanagh, 2011), and (3) family management treatment. Engagement with the FCU predicted significant reductions in suicide risk across adolescence and early adulthood.     

Attempted Suicide in a Xhosa Schizophrenia and Schizoaffective Disorder Population

Suicide risk behavior is a significant contributor to the mortality and morbidity of schizophrenia. We previously reported affected sibship status in a Xhosa schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder sample to be protective in nature; given the counterintuitive nature of this finding, we expanded the sample size to seek further clarification. Subjects were assessed with the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies and then stratified into two groups: with (n = 137) or without (n = 837) a previous suicide attempt. The presence of lifetime bizarre behavior (OR 1.5; 95%CI 1.12–1.87) or cannabis use or abuse (OR 1.2; 95%CI 10.01–1.47) was a significant predictor of suicide attempts, while a higher global alogia score (OR 0.84; 95%CI 0.74–0.96) was a protective factor. Our data seem to support that in this population, encouraging family members to report bizarre behavior and implementing dual diagnosis interventions for cannabis use or abuse could be an appropriate starting point toward developing a targeted suicide prevention program for further research.     

Reducing Suicide Potential Among High-Risk Youth: Tests of a School-Based Prevention Program

This study tested the efficacy of a school-based prevention program for reducing suicide potential among high-risk youth. A sample of 105 youth at suicide risk participated in a three-group, repeated-measures, intervention study. Participants in (1) an assessment plus 1-semester experimental program, (2) an assessment plus 2-semester experimental program, and (3) an assessment-only group were compared, using data from preintervention, 5-month, and 10-month follow-up assessments. All groups showed decreased suicide risk behaviors, depression, hopelessness, stress, and anger; all groups also reported increased self-esteem and network social support. Increased personal control was observed only in the experimental groups, and not in the assessment-only control group. The potential efficacy of the experimental school-based prevention program was demonstrated. The necessary and sufficient strategies for suicide prevention, however, need further study as the assessment-only group, who received limited prevention elements, showed improvements similar to those of the experimental groups.     

Suicide Risk across Latent Class Subgroups: A Test of the Generalizability of the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide

It remains unclear whether the Interpersonal Psychological Theory of Suicide (IPTS; Joiner, 2005 ) is generalizable to the population or holds more explanatory power for certain subgroups compared to others. The aim of this study was to (1) identify subgroups of individuals who endorsed suicide ideation in the past month based on a range of mental health and demographic variables, (2) compare levels of the IPTS constructs within these subgroups, and (3) test the IPTS predictions for suicide ideation and suicide attempt for each group. Latent class, negative binomial, linear, and logistic regression analyses were conducted on population‐based data obtained from 1,321 adults recruited from Facebook. Among participants reporting suicide ideation, four distinct patterns of risk factors emerged based on age and severity of mental health symptoms. Groups with highly elevated mental health symptoms reported the highest levels of thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness. Tests of the IPTS interactions provided partial support for the theory, primarily in young adults with elevated mental health symptoms. Lack of support found for the IPTS predictions across the subgroups and full sample in this study raise some questions around the broad applicability of the theory.     

Identifying the role of sociodemographic factors in major depressive disorder and suicidality among Spanish-speaking Latino patients in a federally qualified health center

Rates of suicide and major depressive disorder (MDD) are currently at the highest point in the history of the United States (US). However, these rates are not distributed evenly among the population and Latinos show disproportionately high rates of both suicide and MDD. Yet, past research has infrequently explored factors related to suicide and MDD in primary care settings that serve as the major community portal for mental health among the Latino population. Thus, the current study investigated sociodemographic variables (marital status, nativity, education, employment, primary language, age, and gender) in terms of their relations with suicidal ideation, suicide risk, MDD, and MDD symptom severity among Latino primary care patients in a Federally Qualified Health Center (N = 634, M _age = 39.46, SD = 11.46, 87.1% female). Results indicated that gender and Nativity were associated with suicidal ideation, older age was associated with suicide risk, and higher education and having a partner were negatively associated with MDD and depressive symptom severity. These results provide novel insight into the role of sociodemographic factors predicting suicide and MDD among Latinos in primary care, and suggest greater scientific and clinical attention can be focused on certain sociodemographic factors to offset mental health disparities among this group.     

Perceptions of Suicide Risk and the Helpfulness of Intervention Strategies: A Comparison of Students and Mothers

College students (n = 132) and mothers (n = 64) listened to simulated hotline calls and rated level of suicide risk and the helpfulness of interventions. Students also rated their intent to take action in a similar situation; mothers rated their child's intent to take action. Students, more than mothers, perceived emotional problems to be associated with risk; mothers, more than students, perceived changes in behavior to be associated with risk. Students and mothers generally agreed regarding the helpfulness of different interventions, rating talking as most helpful. However, students, more than mothers, perceived social distraction as helpful. Mothers were generally accurate in their perceptions of their children's intended actions. Results suggest the need for additional research on the skills adolescents bring to crisis situations.     

Benchmarking the “Question,Persuade, Refer” Program Against Evaluations of Established Suicide Prevention Gatekeeper Trainings

Gatekeeper training is a common approach for aiding suicidal youth. This study utilizes comparative effectiveness “benchmarks” from established programs to evaluate the Question, Persuade, Refer (QPR) program. The QPR program was implemented with adults (N = 2,389) working in youth‐serving community agencies. Questionnaires assessed suicide prevention knowledge, attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and behaviors. Consistent with benchmarked studies, participants in QPR demonstrated knowledge and suicide prevention behavior gains compared with control groups. Future research should utilize benchmarking methods as a measure of effectiveness, and more thoroughly assess mechanisms that promote behavior change.