The Smith-Walley Interpretation of Subjective Probability: An Appreciation

The right interpretation of subjective probability is implicit in the theories of upper and lower odds, and upper and lower previsions, developed, respectively, by Cedric Smith (1961) and Peter Walley (1991). On this interpretation you are free to assign contingent events the probability 1 (and thus to employ conditionalization as a method of probability revision) without becoming vulnerable to a weak Dutch book. Special Issue Formal Epistemology I. Edited by Branden Fitelson     

The Effect of Construal Level on Subjective Probability Estimates

ABSTRACT— In a series of studies, we examined novel predictions drawn from a conceptualization of probability as psychological distance. Manipulating construal level in a number of different ways and examining a variety of probability judgments, we found that participants led to adopt a high-level-construal mind-set made lower probability assessments than did those led to adopt a low-level-construal mind-set. Moreover, this occurred even when construal level was manipulated in a context separate from the judgment task and the manipulation was unrelated in content to the events being judged. These findings suggest that broad processing variables can exert a widespread influence on probability judgment.     

主观概率判断的支持理论

支持理论是一个关于主观概率判断的非外延性理论,它有以下几个主要观点：1.主观概率判断受到描述的影响,具有描述的依赖性;2.主观概率判断的结果是判断者对中心假设的相对支持的反映;3.主观概率在二元判断中表现出二元互补性,在多元判断中表现出次可加性;4.主观概率判断存在分解效应和促进效应     

The Effect of Perceived Challenges and Skills on the Quality of Subjective Experience

ABSTRACT This article investigates the effects that perceived challenges and skills in activities have on the quality of everyday life experience. Based on flow theory it was predicted that quality of daily experience would depend on the challenge experienced and skill required in specific situations, as well as on the balance between challenge and skill. The Experience Sampling Method (ESM) was used on a sample of 208 talented adolescents to measure daily variations in four dimensions of experience (concentration, wish to do the activity, involvement, and happiness) in four contexts (in school, with relatives, with friends, and in solitude). The four dimensions of experience were regressed on the predictors challenges, skills, and their absolute difference expressing the balance/imbalance of challenges and skills. Hierarchical linear modeling, explained in detail herein, was conducted on a 1-week sample of experiences. Findings confirm the prediction of flow theory that the balance of challenges and skills has a positive and independent effect on the quality of experience. Yet some differences of parameter estimates were found between dimensions of experience and between social contexts. These heterogeneities call for a further improvement of the flow model.     

Calibration of Subjective Probability Judgments in a Naturalistic Setting

Results of previous calibration studies are used to identify features of the decision maker and the decision environment which might be expected to result in good calibration. Racetrack bettors and, in particular, the UK parimutuel betting market are identified as possessing such characteristics. In order to explore calibration in this setting, an analysis is undertaken of bets placed on 19,396 horses. A close correlation is observed between the subjective probability judgments of horses' success, implicit in the bettors' wagering activities, and the objective probability of success of the horses concerned. Explanations for the results are offered in terms of characteristics of racetrack bettors and the naturalistic setting, with particular reference to the operation of the betting market. The results contribute to an emergent school of thought which advocates naturalistic enquiry as a complement to laboratory-based experiments in further developing the understanding of decision making.     

主观概率判断中次可加性的三因素实验研究

采用三因素完全随机实验探究主观概率判断是否满足次可加性规律,结果表明:(1)分解方式、分解数量和分解事例的典型性等三个因素对主观概率判断均有显著的影响。(2)次可加性不是一种普遍现象,主观概率判断中也会出现可加性和超可加性:把事件隐分为非典型事例时会出现超可加性,把事件隐分为典型或者典型加非典型性的事例时会出现可加性,而把事件显分时会一致出现次可加性。     

The Relationship Between Perceived Probability of Personal Harm and Distressful Reactions During the Gulf War

This study investigated the relationship between threat appraisal, distressful reactions, and coping strategies of Israeli civilians under missile attack during the Gulf War. During the war, 66 subjects were asked about their perceived probability of being hurt by the missiles. Additionally, they completed a questionnaire that measured their fears and symptoms during the war, the State Anxiety scale of the Endler Multidimensional Anxiety Scales, and the Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations (CISS, Endler & Parker, 1990). The results showed an inverted U-shaped relationship between perceived probability of being hurt and the anxiety measures. A similar curvilinear relationship was found between perceived probability of being hurt and emotion coping strategy. Furthermore, it was found that those who appraised the possibility of being hurt as very high, more often used avoidance coping. The results are discussed within the framework of stress theories and are related to other inverted U-shape relationships found between threat appraisal and stressful reactions.     

Why the Liar Does not Matter

This paper develops a classical model for our ordinary use of the truth predicate (1) that is able to address the liar's paradox and (2) that satisfies a very strong version of deflationism. Since the model is a classical in the sense that it has no truth value gaps, the model is able to address Tarski's indictment of our ordinary use of the predicate as inconsistent. Moreover, since it is able to address the liar's paradox, it responds to arguments against deflationism based upon that paradox alone. The model is based upon a notion of the complexity of propositions that a fixed set of speakers might express. A context-sensitive definition of the truth predicate is then provided based upon a class of possible worlds defined in terms of these speakers. Reasonable constraints on the memories and lifetimes of ordinary speakers are used to limit the set of propositions that they might express so that deflationist requirements are satisfied.     

当代农民工感知社会支持、自尊和主观幸福感的关系

本研究以600名农民工为被试,采用自编的农民工感知社会支持情景问卷以及修订的自尊量表、农民工主观幸福感问卷,以探讨农民工感知社会支持、自尊与主观幸福感的关系,并考查农民工自尊在其感知社会支持与主观幸福感之间的中介作用。结果表明：（1）高自尊水平农民工的主观幸福感及其各维度、感知社会支持都极其显著地高于低自尊农民工;（2）自尊水平与主观幸福感及各维度、感知社会支持水平之间存在极其显著的正相关关系;（3）感知社会支持、自尊与主观幸福感显著两两正相关;（4）自尊在感知社会支持基础上对主观幸福感及两个维度回归效应显著,为二者之间重要的中介变量。     

Retrospective Predictors of Successful Career Change Among Older Workers: Perceived Objective Success Versus Perceived Subjective Success

An increasing number of older workers are attempting career changes; however, little is known about the antecedents or outcomes of these changes. Results indicate that perceived objective and perceived subjective career‐change success are predicted by different combinations of variables. Implications for both future research and practice are discussed.     

Perceived Cognitive Efficiency and Subjective Well-Being in Late Adulthood: The Impact of Developmental Factors

The current literature shows cross-cultural differences related to implicit theories of ageing. Specifically, in the Western individualistic cultural context, elderly people are perceived as obsolete, weak and unable to contribute usefully to society, whereas in collectivistic cultures, older people are venerated as a source of knowledge and cultural traditions (e.g. Yoon et al. in Psychol Aging 15:694–704, 2000). The focus of the current study was to investigate the effect of age-related factors affecting self-referent well-being in the Italian population. One hundred and thirty-nine healthy adults (20–99 years) were recruited in Northern Italian (i.e. individualistic context) and Sardinian (i.e. collectivist context) contexts and were, respectively, assigned to the following groups: Young (20–30 years old), Old (65–74 years old) and Very Old (>75 years old). Participants were administered a battery of tests, including self-referent cognitive efficiency scales, subjective psychological well-being, depression and psychological distress scales. Participants from Sardinia showed greater levels of well-being and lower levels of psychological distress than adults from Northern Italy. Moreover, participants from the Old group reported more coping strategies, emotional competencies and personal satisfaction, as well as fewer depressive symptoms, than the Very Old group. One possible explanation is that sociocultural contexts emphasising the positive social role of the elderly like that prevailing in Sardinia promote psychological well-being in late adulthood.     

Untangling the Relationship Between Income and Subjective Well-Being: The Role of Perceived Income Adequacy and Borrowing Constraints

This paper aims to untangle the relationship between income and subjective well-being. To accomplish this, we investigate how subjective well-being is affected by two financially-related determinants that have not been investigated before or scarcely so. Specifically, we research the impact on subjective well-being of how people are coping with their present income as well as of their borrowing constraints. The results indicate that both variables determine subjective well-being and that they mediate the effects of other variables, namely income, which is not directly related to well-being. Additionally, they signal that income matters to the extent to which it contributes to meeting the desired consumption needs and eases borrowing constraints. Such mediating effects thus contribute to explain how income affects subjective well-being. We also inspect differences in life satisfaction responsiveness to perceived income adequacy and borrowing constraints in certain groups of individuals, and find that the subjective well-being of individuals in a more fragile financial position is particularly responsive to the alleviation of borrowing constraints.     

歧视知觉对城市流动儿童幸福感的影响：中介机制及归属需要的调节作用

采用整群取样法对选自北京市的1551名流动儿童进行测查, 探讨歧视知觉对城市流动儿童的个体和群体幸福感的影响机制, 即内群体认同和群体地位感在其中的中介作用, 以及不同归属需要下内群体认同和群体地位感的中介作用差异。结果表明：(1)公立学校小学流动儿童的个体和群体幸福感相对较高; 流动男生比流动女生具有较高的生活满意度, 流动女生比流动男生具有较高的群体幸福感。(2)歧视知觉对城市流动儿童的个体和群体幸福感存在直接显著的负向预测作用, 并通过内群体情感认同和群体地位感的中介作用负向预测群体幸福感。(3)不同归属需要下歧视知觉对个体和群体幸福感的作用机制存在差异。在高归属需要组, 歧视知觉对个体幸福感存在直接显著的负向预测作用, 并通过群体地位感和群体幸福感的双重中介消极地影响个体幸福感; 歧视知觉完全通过群体地位感的中介消极地影响群体幸福感。在低归属需要组, 歧视知觉对个体幸福感既存在直接的负向预测作用, 也通过内群体情感认同和群体地位感的中介发挥间接性的积极作用; 歧视知觉对群体幸福感只存在间接的消极影响, 内群体情感认同和群体地位感在其中发挥完全中介作用。这表明, 内群体情感认同和群体地位感在流动儿童歧视知觉与幸福感之间的中介效应受到归属需要的调节影响。     

Additivity of abrupt onset effects supports nonspatial distraction, not the capture of spatial attention

In a recent article, Schreij, Owens, and Theeuwes (2008) reported that abruptly onsetting distractors produce costs in performance even when spatial-cuing effects confirm the presence of a top-down set for color. The authors argued that these results show that abruptly onsetting new objects capture attention independent of a top-down set and, thus, provide conclusive evidence against the theory that attentional capture is contingent on top-down attentional control settings (Folk, Remington, & Johnston, 1992). In the following article, we argue that, contrary to the conclusion drawn by Schreij et al., their own data (1) disconfirm the claim that their abrupt onsets captured spatial attention and (2) are consistent with nonspatial interference accounts of singleton-distractor effects. In support of the nonspatial account, we show that in a paradigm similar to Schreij et al.’s, distractors that do not capture attention can nonetheless influence responses to a target. We conclude that the results of Schreij et al. do not represent a challenge to contingent capture theory.     

The Subjectivity of Certainty and the Subjectivity of Uncertainty

Based on the acknowledgment of what I have designated as cracks in our theoretical models, I have advanced some hypotheses that account for the constitution of social, familial, and individual subjectivity. I have attributed great significance to the concept of the unforeseeable. The unforeseeable is tied to uncertainty, which is related in turn to the flow of interpersonal relations. I have also discussed new forms of suffering that stem from conditions imposed by the social context, in this case, the expulsion from one's territory. I chose this phenomenon because of the importance I attach both to the feeling of social belonging and to subjects' need to create stable places in a world in constant flux. Some clinical vignettes illustrated these reflections.     

个体和群体歧视知觉对流动儿童主观幸福感的影响

采用整班联系、自愿参加的方式,通过匿名方式对北京市1552名流动儿童施测个体和群体歧视知觉问卷、积极/消极情感量表、生活满意度量表、内群体认同测验与群体地位感测验,探讨个体和群体歧视知觉对流动儿童主观幸福感的影响及内群体认同感和群体地位感在其中的中介作用。结果表明：（1）个体和群体歧视知觉与流动儿童的主观幸福感、内群体情感认同及群体地位感之间存在显著性相关,与内群体认知认同之间相关不显著。（2）个体歧视知觉对流动儿童的主观幸福感存在直接显著的负向预测作用,并通过降低流动儿童的群体地位感,进而间接地负向影响流动儿童的主观幸福感;（3）群体歧视知觉对流动儿童的主观幸福感也存在直接显著的消极影响,并同时借助于群体地位感的中介作用、以及内群体情感认同和群体地位感的双重中介作用间接地降低流动儿童的主观幸福感。     

老年人乐观、领悟社会支持与主观幸福感的关系—控制策略的中介作用

基于毕生控制理论，方便选取杭州市60~95岁的老年人320名，采用问卷法考察了老年人控制策略使用的现状和特点，并在控制了年龄、健康状况、日常活动数量后，探讨了老年人的乐观、领悟社会支持与主观幸福感的关系，以及控制策略的中介作用。结果发现：低龄的老年男性和女性更偏好选择初级和补偿初级策略，而高龄老年女性更偏好补偿初级策略；乐观和领悟社会支持不仅可以直接影响老年人的主观幸福感，还可以通过选择初级策略间接影响主观幸福感。初级控制在老年人中依然具有首要性地位，老年人的资源越丰富，越有可能采用积极的控制策略（选择初级），进而提高主观幸福感，实现成功老龄化。     

Losing the Certainty of Self

In his theory of trauma, Ferenczi points to the disbelief of adults of a child's account of an event as an actual traumatizing factor. Ferenczi also states that of all the consequences of the trauma, which include identification with the aggressor, psychic coma, departure from the possibility of dreams, and a fall to the hell of nightmares, the most important and fundamental is the lack of certainty of self. The disbelief of the adults destroys the certainty of what is perceived and experienced; it has the power of annihilating the child's belief in his own perceptions, his trust in his own senses. The loss of certainty of self appears to be a common characteristic in patients with distinct psychic dynamics. We will analyze the loss of certainty of self in cases of patients of the NEPECC (Núcleo de Estudos em Psicanálise e Clínica da Contemporaneidade) [Center of Studies in Psychoanalysis and Contemporarity Clinic] at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.