调节定向和调节匹配对情感预测中影响偏差的影响

现实生活中,人们在决策前需要对决策可能带来的结果进行预测。人们往往会高估未来事件对其情绪的影响,这被称为影响偏差。本研究从自我调节理论的视角出发,考察了调节定向和调节匹配对情感预测中影响偏差的影响。实验1和实验2分别在积极和消极情景中考察了调节定向对情感预测偏差的影响;实验3和实验4分别在消极和积极情景中考察了调节匹配对情感预测偏差的影响。结果发现:(1)在对积极情感的预测中,促进定向个体比防御定向个体出现更大的影响偏差;在对消极情感的预测中,防御定向个体比促进定向个体出现更大的影响偏差。(2)调节匹配比调节不匹配条件下,个体会出现更大的影响偏差。因此,情感预测中的影响偏差是个体实现目标的一种自我调节策略,会受到调节定向和调节匹配的影响。     

情感预测的影响偏差——聚焦错觉还是适应忽视?

为了考察情感预测影响偏差中聚焦错觉和适应忽视的作用,本研究通过两个实验,先让大学生被试对考研(实验1a)、骨折手术(实验1b)、搬到新校区(实验2)进行情感预测,然后将其与情感体验进行比较,并比较了去焦点化训练、适应训练和控制组对影响偏差的干预效果。结果发现:去焦点化训练显著地降低了情感预测的影响偏差,而适应训练和控制组则没有显著降低影响偏差。因此,本研究认为,当情境线索清楚的时候,聚焦错觉是导致情感预测影响偏差的主要原因。     

最后通牒博弈中提议者情绪预测偏差对公平决策的影响:公平感知的作用

为探讨提议者情绪预测偏差对公平决策的影响以及其中介机制,采用了两轮最后通牒博弈提议者实验任务,第一轮测量分配方案被接受和拒绝的情绪预测偏差,第二轮测量提议者的分配方案。研究结果表明:(1)提议者情绪预测偏差影响公平决策;(2)公平感知在提议者情绪预测偏差与公平决策间起部分中介作用。研究认为,提议者对积极结果的情绪预测偏差,会降低其公平感知,进而降低其分配方案公平性; 提议者对消极结果的情绪预测偏差,会提高其公平感知,进而增加其分配方案公平性。     

学习能动性信念对初中生学习行为中情感预测偏差的影响

为考察初中生学习中是否存在情感预测偏差及学习能动性信念对情感预测偏差的影响,实验一首先考察初中生学习行为中是否存在情感预测偏差,实验二和实验三分别在实验室和真实情景中考察学习能动性信念对初中生学习行为情感预测偏差的影响。结果表明：（1）初中生学习行为中存在影响偏差,高估了积极和消极学习结果对情绪的影响。（2）学习能动性信念强的学生比学习能动性信念弱的学生对积极学习结果的情感预测偏差更小,对消极学习结果的情感预测偏差更大。     

健康目标启动降低高热量食物消费

高热量食物摄入导致的能量正平衡是导致肥胖的原因之一。本研究通过3个实验考察了健康目标启动能否以及如何降低高热量食物的消费, 提高低热量食物的消费。结果发现：(1)健康目标启动能够显著减少人们对高热量食物的消费, 增加对低热量食物的消费。(2)对食物的情感预测分别在健康目标启动减少高热量食物消费、增加低热量食物消费中起中介作用。因此, 健康目标启动可以通过降低(增加)对高(低)热量食物的情感预测来帮助人们减少(增加)高(低)热量食物的选择和消费。     

时间距离对于验证性信息加工的影响

研究基于解释水平理论考察时间距离对于验证性信息加工的影响, 即在个体和组织决策情境中, 人们倾向于偏好选择和高估与自身观点和决策相一致的信息, 而不是非一致性信息。通过4个情境决策实验, 研究结果一致表明近期决策会提高信息搜寻和评估中的验证偏差, 而远期决策会降低它们的验证偏差, 知觉到的决策确定性在其中起到部分中介作用(实验1b)。解释水平(实验2)和期许性/可行性表征(实验3)分别在时间距离对验证性信息加工的影响中起到调节作用, 结果依次表明在低解释水平(高可行性-低期许性特征)条件下, 时间距离与验证性信息加工的负相关关系会得到显著增强, 而在高解释水平(高期许性-低可行性特征)条件下, 时间距离与验证性信息加工的负相关关系会得到显著降低。     

运动决策中的无意识思维研究

本研究以81名篮球专业的大学生为被试,通过决策篮球视频,考察运动决策中的无意识思维效应。实验1探讨了不同运动决策信息下的无意识思维决策差异,发现呈现直觉性决策信息时,无意识思维组的决策效果好于意识思维组。实验2在无意识思维阶段通过启动被试的加工方式,考察直觉性决策信息下,启动不同的加工方式对运动决策的无意识思维效应的影响,发现整体加工组的无意识思维决策效果最佳。研究结果表明,直觉性决策信息下,启动被试的整体加工方式,其无意识思维的决策效果会有所提升。     

安全依恋对人际信任的影响:依恋焦虑的调节效应

采用两个实验探讨了安全依恋启动对人际信任的影响,并考察了特质依恋风格的调节效应。实验1采用回忆书写任务启动安全依恋,采用3(启动分组:安全依恋启动,积极情绪启动,中性启动)×3(目标词类型:信任相关词,信任无关词,非词)混合实验设计考察了不同启动分组对信任词汇反应时的影响。结果发现,与积极情绪启动组和中性启动组相比,安全依恋启动能显著提高信任的词汇决策反应时,特质依恋焦虑起调节效应。实验2采用被试间设计,考察安全依恋启动对信任博弈任务中信任决策的影响,结果发现,安全依恋启动组被试在信任决策中分配的金额显著高于中性组被试,特质依恋焦虑起调节效应。研究结果验证了安全依恋对人际信任的"拓延–建构环"效应,对于促进社会信任的提升具有积极的现实意义。     

移动购物更快吗?决策场景与思维模式的相容性

既有文献对消费者延迟选择影响因素的研究, 主要集中于决策复杂度、决策者特质或情绪, 少有对决策场景进行深入探讨。互联网购物时代, PC端与手机端已成为重要的消费场景。针对手机端是否会加快消费者决策过程的问题目前也存在不一致的结论。本文引入决策双系统理论, 力图解释以往看似冲突的结论。消费者的购买决策模式, 不仅会受到决策任务(产品价格)的影响, 还会受到决策场景(购买终端)影响。当场景与决策任务使消费者启动的思维模式相一致时, 会提升决策流畅度, 降低延迟选择。本文发现, 移动端(PC端)与低(高)价格产品更容易激发相容的经验性(理性)思维, 降低延迟选择倾向。反之, 则会同时启动两种相左的决策思维, 增加延迟选择倾向。本文从场景启动与价格启动视角, 将以往消费者单一的决策思维模式, 拓展到多因素启动的思维模式相容性问题; 同时本文通过探究延迟选择问题, 对价格策略与场景化营销带来启示。     

竞争情境下社会比较认知偏差实验研究

本文以在校大学生为被试,考察社会比较的一个重要领域—学业竞争中的比较偏差。通过操纵竞争双方的实力(强VS.弱)以及竞争对手的信息清晰度(清晰VS.模糊)来考察不同的任务类型与信息清晰度对竞争中认知偏差的影响,以及探讨认知偏差对决策者决策意图的影响。结果发现,在社会比较中,面对不同类型的问题,会出现不同的认知偏差;竞争双方信息清晰时优于常人效应会减弱;认知偏差会影响个体的决策意图和决策行为。     

Associations Between Social Anxiety and Affective and Empathic Forecasts: A Replication and Extension in a Mechanical Turk Sample

People often overestimate the intensity and duration of their future emotions, referred to as an impact bias. Impact biases have been documented in predictions people make about their own emotions, as well as the others’ emotions (i.e., affective and empathic forecasting, respectively). Recent studies have shown that negative impact biases may be stronger, and positive impact biases may be attenuated, in individuals with symptoms of social anxiety. The current study sought to replicate and extend these findings in a Mechanical Turk (MTurk) sample. MTurk is a particularly interesting online platform for such research because of the unusually high prevalence of social anxiety among MTurk users. Within a computer-based survey, 93 MTurk users read vignettes in which a second-person narrator elicited either disgust, anger, or happiness from another person. After each vignette, participants predicted how the narrator (i.e., affective forecasts) and the other person (i.e., empathic forecasts) would feel. Overall, results confirmed the existence of associations between social anxiety symptoms and negative affective and empathic forecasting biases, though no significant relations were found between social anxiety symptoms and positive forecasting biases. Negative affective and empathic forecasting biases were significantly correlated. Age and gender were also examined as potential predictors and moderators of hypothesized effects. Though younger age and female gender were associated with specific forecast ratings, controlling for these variables did not alter the associations between social anxiety and affective or empathic forecasts and no moderation effects were found. Overall, results provide additional support for the relevance of impact biases to social anxiety and suggest that they may be useful targets of intervention.     

特质正念对初中生学业情绪预测偏差的影响

基于真实考试和实验室模拟情境, 考察特质正念对初中生学业情绪预测偏差的影响及其机制。结果表明：(1)学业领域存在情绪预测偏差; (2)特质正念影响情绪预测偏差, 特质正念水平高的初中生情绪预测偏差相对更小, 反之则更大; (3)注意聚焦在特质正念影响情绪预测偏差中存在中介作用。本研究初步提出正念的“扩大-联结”解释模型, 推进了学业领域情绪预测的研究, 具有良好的生态学效度和切实的教育实践价值。     

The least likely of times: how remembering the past biases forecasts of the future

Atypical events are both memorable and unrepresentative of their class. We tested the hypotheses that (a) people tend to recall atypical instances of events, and (b) when they are unaware of this, they rely on these atypical instances in forecasting their affective reactions to future events. In three studies, participants who were asked to recall an instance of an event and participants who were asked to recall an atypical instance of an event recalled equally atypical instances. However, only the former participants made extreme forecasts about their reactions to future events. The results suggest that the impact bias (the tendency to overestimate the affective impact of future events) may be due in part to people's reliance on highly available but unrepresentative memories of the past.     

Self-affirmation and affective forecasting: Affirmation reduces the anticipated impact of negative events

When forecasting how they will feel in the future, people overestimate the impact that imagined negative events will have on their affective states, partly because they underestimate their own psychological resiliency. Because self-affirmation enhances resiliency, two studies examined whether self-affirmation prior to forecasting reduces the extremity of affective forecasts. Participants in self-affirmation conditions completed a values scale or wrote an essay asserting their most important value, whereas participants in the no-affirmation condition asserted a relatively unimportant value. Participants then predicted their affective reactions to a negative or positive imagined event. In both studies, self-affirmation reduced the unpleasant affect expected to result from a negative event, but had no impact on affective forecasts for a positive event. This pattern was mediated by participants’ cognitive appraisals of the imagined event, but not by differential focus on that event. Results are consistent with self-affirmation activating or enhancing psychological resiliency to counteract immune neglect during affective forecasting of a negative event.     

Enduring Positivity: Children Of Incarcerated Parents Report More Positive Than Negative Emotions When Thinking about Close Others

ABSTRACT

Millions of children in the United States experience parental incarceration, yet it is unclear how this experience might shape social cognition. We asked children of incarcerated parents (N = 24) and children whose parents were not incarcerated (N = 58) to describe their parents. Both groups of children also rated the extent to which they agree that they feel positive and, separately, negative emotions when thinking about their parent and best friend. This approach allowed us to test between two alternative hypotheses. On the one hand, cultural narratives in the United States convey negative messages about incarcerated people, and these messages could prompt children to report negativity when thinking about their incarcerated parents. On the other hand, children’s positivity toward close others is robust. Thus, when thinking about their incarcerated parents, children may report a great deal of positivity. Consistent with the latter possibility, children were more likely to describe their incarcerated parents using positive rather than negative terms. Moreover, children of incarcerated parents were more likely to agree that thinking about close others made them feel positive emotions than they were to agree that thinking about close others made them feel negative emotions. A similar pattern of results emerged among children whose parents were not incarcerated. These findings demonstrate the robustness of children’s positivity and can inform debates regarding contact between incarcerated parents and their children.     

青少年情绪预测偏差与决策的关系研究

在决策过程中人们通常选择那些使其感到快乐的行为,决策结果与所预测的高兴或悲伤、满意或不满意紧密相连,以往研究发现这类预测即情绪预测存在偏差。本研究以188名中小学生为被试,采用自编情绪评定表和最后通牒游戏范式,对情绪预测偏差与决策的关系进行探索。结果表明青少年在预测对未来事件的情绪反应时存在强度偏差和持续时间偏差,情绪预测的强度偏差和持续时间偏差影响青少年回避或趋向决策。     

On emotionally intelligent time travel: individual differences in affective forecasting ability

In two studies, the authors examined whether people who are high in emotional intelligence (EI) make more accurate forecasts about their own affective responses to future events. All participants completed a performance measure of EI (the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test) as well as a self-report measure of EI. Affective forecasting ability was assessed using a longitudinal design in which participants were asked to predict how they would feel and report their actual feelings following three events in three different domains: politics and academics (Study 1) and sports (Study 2). Across these events, individual differences in forecasting ability were predicted by participants' scores on the performance measure, but not the self-report measure, of EI; high-EI individuals exhibited greater affective forecasting accuracy. Emotion Management, a subcomponent of EI, emerged as the strongest predictor of forecasting ability.