Two Faces of Representativeness: The Effects of Response Format on Beliefs about Random Sampling

Two beliefs that act in concert have been proposed as the basis for the representativeness heuristic in general, and judgments about random sampling in particular: samples resemble their parent populations (resemblance), and random sampling is a self-correcting process (balancing). Based on the results of a preliminary experiment, we proposed the ‘rule-cuing’ hypothesis, which is that different aspects of sampling problems can invoke these two beliefs separately. We found that when response formats required subjects to estimate themean of a sample, subjects’ responses reflected resemblance beliefs, whereas when subjects estimated the total score in a sample, balancing beliefs were elicited. In additional experiments we eliminated two rival hypotheses: theproblem difficulty hypothesis, and thearithmetic inconsistency hypothesis. Results suggest that beliefs, as well as preferences, may be constructed on-line in response to task characteristics.     

Beliefs about how to reduce anger.

To learn more about people's beliefs about how to reduce anger, 416 college students were asked what they thought would be the effects of various responses to feeling angry. In general, they thought that behaving aggressively would make them feel worse and that distracting themselves and doing something nice for another would make them feel better. However, males, younger subjects, and those who had behaved more aggressively in the past were more likely to feel that behaving aggressively would elevate their mood. These observations are consistent with theories emphasizing the importance of cognitive variables in the experiences of anger and aggression.     

Evolution and Providence: A Response to Thomas Tracy

The role of chance in evolutionary process need not negate belief in the purposes of the Creator. The nature of causality is not determined by science alone, for it requires also acts of metaphysical decision. Moreover, science's accounts of physical reality are notably patchy, with relationships between different regimes often ill-understood An honest science cannot exclude the exercise of agency, either human or divine. Evolutionary insight can offer some help with the problems of theodicy.     

Beliefs about personality change and continuity

Lay conceptions of personality change and continuity were examined in a sample of 112 undergraduates. Participants rated their personal change over 5 years (past or future), the change they perceived to be normative over 10-year age spans between 15 and 65, their beliefs about whether personality is fixed or malleable (“lay theories”) and their beliefs about the causes of personality change and continuity. Beliefs about normative personality change generally corresponded to research evidence on adult trajectories of the Big Five factors, with some age bias, whereas recalled and anticipated personal change tended to be more positive than these norms. Participants tended to endorse environmental causes more for personality change than for continuity. Lay theories were not consistently associated with these causal beliefs, or with beliefs about personal and normative change.     

Application of a Temporal Persistence Model to Community Residents' L]ong-Term Beliefs about the Three Mile island Nuclear Accident1

Little is known about the conditions under which beliefs and attitudes about an issue or event will persist over time. The present research took advantage of a “natural experiment”, namely, the Three Mile Island (TMI) nuclear accident, in order (a) better to understand the nature of individuals' b]eliefs about a major event to which they were exposed and (b) to evaluate a conceptual formulation developed from laboratory-based experimental literature concerning when beliefs and attitudes are likely to be temporally persistent. Data were collected over a 3-year period following the accident from two samples of community residents: mothers of young children who lived within a 10-mile radius of TMI and TMI nuclear power plant employees. Samples of mothers and workers from a western Pennsylvania comparison site were also included in the study design. Results supported the persistence model in several respects. First, TMI subjects' b]eliefs, although more extreme than comparison subjects' v]iews, showed virtually no change during the study period. Second, the factors that the model suggests should account for the observed persistence were indeed consistently important predictors of TMI subjects' b]eliefs over time. Implications of the results for future applied work on long-term reactions to major events are discussed.     

Response Expectancies and Irrational Beliefs Predict Exam-Related Distress

Individual differences in cognitive factors such as response expectancies and irrational beliefs (IBs) have been shown to contribute to variability in distress associated with stressful situations. However, their independent influence on distress when examined within the same study has not been established, nor has the potential of mediational relationships. The purpose of this study was to investigate the contribution of response expectancies and IBs (both general and exam-specific) to exam-related distress in a prospective study. Results revealed that both response expectancies and general IBs separately predicted exam-related distress (p’s<.05; N=105). Observed effects of general IBs were perfectly mediated by, and observed effects of exam-specific IBs were partially mediated by, response expectancies using the Baron and Kenny approach. These data support the view that cognitive factors contribute to psychological distress and are consistent with response expectancy and rational emotive behavior theories. The results suggest that interventions focused on response expectancies and IBs might be an effective means to reduce psychological distress associated with real life stressors such as exams. Future research is needed to determine whether this effect generalizes to other stressful situations. Dr. Montgomery is Director of the Integrative Behavioral Medicine Program at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine. Dr. David is an associate professor at Babes-Bolyai University, in Romania. Dr. DiLorenzo is an assistant professor in the Psychology Department of Stern College. Dr. Schnur is a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Oncological Sciences at Mount Sinai School of Medicine. This work was supported by the National Cancer Institute (CA81137) and the American Cancer Society (PF-05-098-01-CPPB).     

Parent Beliefs about Treatment Credibility and Effectiveness: Assessment and Relation to Subsequent Treatment Participation

We assessed parents’ beliefs about treatment credibility and effectiveness and examined the influence of these beliefs on subsequent treatment participation. Seventy-six parents completed the Credibility/Expectancies Questionnaire—Parent Version (CEQ-P), and subsequently participated in treatment for their child's clinically referred conduct problems. The key findings were that: (a) the CEQ-P is composed of two components that measure parents’ treatment credibility and expectancies; (b) the total scale and each component are internally consistent and have strong test-retest reliability; (c) scores on the CEQ-P are significantly associated with scores on a measure of parent motivation for treatment, supporting the construct validity of this measure; and (d) scores on the CEQ-P at the first clinic visit significantly predict subsequent adherence to treatment procedures above and beyond demographic variables and parent motivation for treatment. This study provides an efficient and psychometrically sound measure of parent beliefs about treatment and demonstrates the importance of such beliefs for subsequent treatment adherence.     

The richness of our tradition: replies to Preston,Gomez-Torrente,and Hanks

Philosophical Studies -     

Beliefs about stories: Parents' and therapists' explanations of childhood difficulties

Therapists and parents were given vignettes describing the behavioural and emotional difficulties of two nine-year-old children and were asked to rate the importance of a number of possible explanations for such difficulties. Broad agreement was found between parents and therapists, but also there were a number of significant differences. Parents endorsed more child centered explanations and put greater emphasis on physical and developmental factors, while therapists endorsed relationships factors and saw the beliefs of other family members as important. Therapists who were parents showed a pattern of responses that lay between those of parents and non-parent therapists.     

Beliefs about female and male nonverbal communication

Participants (N= 441) rated from 1 to 10 how frequently or well they believed hypothetical women and men performed each of twenty nonverbal behaviors or skills. Women were believed to use more expressive and involved nonverbal behaviors than men, and to be more skilled at sending and receiving nonverbal messages. Men were believed to be louder and more interruptive, and to display more nervous, dysfluent behaviors. Ratings given to females by females were higher than were ratings in the other gender combinations for over half the variables, which may accurately describe female—female interaction. Perceived gender differences correlated positively with differences reported in observational studies, indicating that beliefs about nonverbal gender differences were generally accurate. The authors wish to thank Tom Leahy for his assistance in data collection.     

Beliefs about birth control: a consistency theory analysis

201 lower income women aged 20-40 were interviewed in a large midwestern city in December 1967 and January 1968 to determine attitudes towards, beliefs about, and use of birth control. Those who approved of birth control had more positive beliefs about the consequences of birth control than those with less favorable attitudes. Users of reliable methods also held more positive attitudes about birth control consequences than nonusers or users of nonreliable methods although this relationship was weak. Strategies for improving family planning behavioral predictions are suggested as well as implications of this for family planning communication programs.     

Beliefs about rape and women's social roles: A Turkish replication

Various researchers on feminist issues have argued that rape against women is supported by beliefs encouraging socioeconomic domination of women and that acceptance of ‘rape myths’ foster those beliefs. If this is true, acceptance of such myths should be correlated with restrictive beliefs about women's social roles. Two previous studies, carried out in England, Israel, United States, and West Germany, confirmed that hypothesis (Costin, 1985; Costin and Schwarz, 1987). The replication of those investigations in Turkey adds further support for the hypothesis.     

Beliefs about Memory as a Mediator of Relations between Metacognitive Beliefs and Actual Memory Performance

The goal of the present study was to investigate relationships between personal beliefs about memory, metacognitive beliefs, and actual memory performance. One hundred thirty-seven participants' (aged 20 to 60 years) metacognitive beliefs were measured using the Metacognition Questionnaire (MCQ-30), memory beliefs were measured using the Personal Beliefs about Memory Instrument (PBMI), and an episodic memory task was used to measure actual memory performance, memory predictions, and postdictions. Younger adults had lower scores on the positive beliefs subfactor of the MCQ-30, higher scores on retrospective change and control subfactors of the PBMI, and outperformed middle-aged adults on recall and recall postdiction. Path analysis showed that individuals' beliefs about memory mediate the relationship between metacognitive beliefs and actual memory performance. Specifically, low lack of confidence (or less worry) in one's own memory and attentional capabilities was related to higher memory performance and positive personal beliefs regarding specific memory ability mediated relationship.     

Beliefs about aggression among male and female prisoners

This study investigated instrumental and expressive beliefs about aggression, and their association with self-reported aggression, among male (N = 62) and female (N = 47) prisoners serving sentences in closed prisons in the North of England. Instrumental but not expressive beliefs were strongly correlated with measures of aggression. Expressive beliefs were significantly higher among females than males, but unlike previous findings, there were no significant sex differences in instrumental beliefs or in physical aggression. However, age was significantly negatively correlated with instrumental beliefs, physical aggression, anger and hostility. Those convicted for violent offences showed significantly higher scores for physical aggression and anger, but lower scores for expressive beliefs. The results provide both similarities and contrasts with previous findings for student samples. Aggr. Behav. 23:405–415, 1997. © 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Self-Doubt Effects Depend on Beliefs about Ability: Experimental Evidence

Past research has shown negative effects of chronic self-doubt on psychological and performance outcomes. Recent correlational evidence suggests that incremental beliefs about ability ameliorate certain self-doubt effects. The current research examines whether these correlational findings are robust when subjected to experimental testing. In Experiment 1, we manipulated beliefs about ability (incremental vs. entity) and demonstrated that changing beliefs about ability altered responses to self-doubt. For individuals primed with entity beliefs, higher self-doubt was associated with greater nervousness and poorer anagram performance; for individuals primed with incremental beliefs, self-doubt had no significant effects. Experiment 2 was a 2 (manipulated belief: incremental vs. entity) × 2 (self-doubt: doubt induction vs. control) factorial design. The result showed that self-doubt induction lowered self-esteem relative to control when people were primed with entity beliefs but did not affect self-esteem when incremental beliefs were primed. However, Experiment 1 results on affect and performance were not replicated in Experiment 2. Thus, although we provide some causal evidence that inducing individuals to adopt an ability-is-malleable mindset reduces the negative effects of self-doubt, further experimental work is required to study the moderating role of mindsets for self-doubt effects.