A Fuzzy Topsis Method for Prioritized Aggregation in Multi‐Criteria Decision Making Problems

Aggregation in a decision making environment requires the fusion of opinions of a group of decision makers. The group of decision makers are required to analyse a set of interrelated criteria that are usually measured on a linguistic scale. This process requires, in many instances, to capture experts experience, intuition and thinking that are traditionally expressed in a linguistic fashion rather than a numerical fashion. Furthermore, the necessity of considering the relationship between the criteria to the overall decision must be considered by the group of decision makers. This paper extends the application of fuzzy numbers, fuzzy relative importance scores (FRIS), fuzzy relative weights (FRW) and the fuzzy technique of order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) in prioritized aggregation. This extension provides a mean to systematically aggregate a group of decision makers' views for a set of interrelated criteria that are measured on a linguistic scale. First, an overview of the application of fuzzy numbers and the characteristics of aggregating fuzzy numbers in multi‐criteria decision making problems are presented. Then, the application of TOPSIS in fuzzy environments is presented. Next, past research is highlighted to present prioritized aggregation and the different aggregation operators' classes. Subsequently, a new prioritized aggregation method is presented. This method utilizes fuzzy TOPSIS with prioritized aggregation in fuzzy environments. Finally, the fuzzy prioritized aggregation method presented in this paper is applied on an actual case study. According to the results, the method presented in this paper provides a systematic approach to capture the uncertainty and imprecision associated with quantifying linguistic measurements in multi‐criteria decision making problems. Furthermore, it considers the relationship between the set of linguistically measured criteria undergoing prioritized aggregation in a fuzzy environment. Lastly, findings, conclusions and future work are presented. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reluctant to change: Self-enhancing responses to diverging performance measures

Although there is extensive evidence that past performance influences the propensity to make changes, research on how decision makers respond to diverging performance measures has been sparse. This paper addresses this gap in an experimental and a field study in which we examine how decision makers respond to the ambiguity introduced by two diverging performance indicators of unequal importance. Both studies suggest that decision makers respond to diverging performance indicators in a self-enhancing manner. Decision makers gave importance to a secondary performance indicator only when it helped them maintain a sense of positive performance, that is, when a secondary performance measure was high and a primary performance measure was low. The results suggest that, in contexts in which decision makers are likely to experience diverging performance indicators, perceptions of success and the associated reluctance to make changes might be more pervasive than is often thought.     

To change or not to change: A matter of decision maker’s role

The status quo effect derived from loss aversion is common in decision making. However, we propose that advisors (vs. personal decision makers) are less susceptible to such an effect because they are less loss-averse. The difference in loss aversion between personal decision makers and advisors is reflected in both the query order and content. Compared to advisors, personal decision makers produce more queries favoring the status quo, at an earlier time, than those favoring the new option. As hypothesized, the status quo effect was observed among personal decision makers, but not among advisors (Studies 1 and 2). Query order and content were found to mediate the impact of decision maker’s role on the status quo effect (Study 2). When personal decision makers and advisors made queries in the same order (Study 3) or of the same content (Studies 4a and 4b), the difference between self–other decision making disappeared.     

Model and interactive algorithm of bi‐level multi‐objective decision‐making with multiple interconnected decision makers

Furthering a prior research on two‐person bi‐level multi‐objective decision‐making problems of the leader‐follower Stackelberg game, we present an extended model of bi‐level multi‐objective decision‐making with multiple interconnected decision makers at the lower level. In the model, the upper level decision maker acts as a leader and the lower level decision makers behave as the followers, and inter‐connections and interactions exist among these followers in decision‐making scenarios. Following the rules of leader‐follower Stackelberg game, we develop an interactive algorithm of the model for solving multi‐objective decision‐making problems and reflecting the interactive natures among the decision makers. Finally, the authors exemplify the model and algorithm, and draw a conclusion on points of contributions and the significance of this study in decision‐making and support. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When adolescents "mismanage" their chronic medical conditions: an ethical exploration

Many adolescent patients with chronic medical conditions do not manage their illnesses very closely and often put themselves at risk for serious health complications. Setting aside cases of nonadherence that are due to practical difficulties involving the implementation of a management plan, a deeply problematic question remains. How should health care providers respond to adolescent patients who express a conscious and value-driven decision to pursue other goals and interests that are incompatible with their doctors' recommended directives? Using two guiding ethical principles, the "relevant difference principle" and the "principle of noninterference," as well as available empirical data on adolescent decision making and risk perception, the paper concludes that most adolescents ages 14 and older should be allowed to make self-determining decisions regarding the management of their chronic medical conditions.     

Fuzzy MCDM based on the concept of α‐cut

In a fuzzy multiple criteria decision‐making (MCDM) problem, with a hierarchical structure of more than two levels and involving multiple decision‐makers (DMs), to find the exact membership functions of the final aggregation ratings of all feasible alternatives is almost impossible. Thus, ranking methods based on exact membership functions cannot be utilized to rank the feasible alternatives and complete the optimal selection. To resolve the above‐mentioned complexity and to incorporate assessments of all DMs' viewpoints, in this paper a fuzzy MCDM method with multiple DMs, based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory and α‐cut, is developed. This method incorporates a number of perspectives on how to approach the fuzzy MCDM problem with multiple DMs, as follows: (1) combining quantitative and qualitative criteria as well as negative and positive ones; (2) using the generalized means to develop the aggregation method of multiple DMs' opinions; (3) incorporating the risk attitude index β to convey the total risk attitude of all DMs by using the estimation data obtained at the data input stage; (4) employing the algebraic operations of fuzzy numbers based on the concept of α‐cut to calculate the final aggregation ratings and develop a matching ranking method for proposed fuzzy MCDM method with multiple DMs. Furthermore, we use this method to survey the site selection for free port zone (FPZ) in Taiwan as an empirical study to demonstrate the proposed fuzzy MCDM algorithm. The result of this empirical investigation shows that the port of Kaohsiung, the largest international port of Taiwan as well as the sixth container port in the world in 2004, is optimal for the Taiwan government in enacting the plan of FPZ. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Iowa Gambling Task Modified for Military Domain

One key component of optimal military decision making is that the decision maker demonstrates reinforcement learning. The modification of psychological tasks gives insight into understanding how to effectively train military decision makers and how experienced decision makers arrive at optimal or near optimal decisions. We developed a task modeled after the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) to measure military decision making performance. This new task focuses on high stakes and uncertain environments particular to military decision making conditions. Thirty-four U.S. military officers from all branches of service completed the tasks yielding decision data for validation. The new task retains essential characteristics of the foundational task and gives insight into reinforcement learning of military decision makers. Results indicate that the additional metric of regret defines higher performance at a trial-by-trial level, and clustering by multiple metrics defines high performance groups.     

Health-related quality of life in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and proliferative lupus nephritis

This study investigated the influence of two different treatments for a kidney inflammation (i.e. proliferative lupus nephritis) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with the chronic auto-immune disease systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). One treatment protocol, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) protocol, was characterized by a high dose of cyclophosphamide (CYC, an immunosuppressive drug), and the second treatment, the Euro-Lupus protocol, involved a low-dose CYC. Thirty-two SLE patients were included based on the received treatment for an episode of proliferative lupus nephritis, according to either the Euro-Lupus or the NIH protocol. The two groups were compared on HRQoL as measured by the SF-36 and the SLE Symptom Checklist (SSC). The Euro-Lupus group (N?=?16) tended to show a higher HRQoL than the NIH group (N?=?16) on four of seven scales of the SF-36. In addition, the Euro-Lupus group experienced less burden from nausea or vomiting than the NIH group as assessed by the SSC. Fatigue was the most disturbing symptom in both groups. The most burdensome aspects of treatment were related to chemotherapy (55.2%) and use of prednisone (34.5%). Patients with a low HRQoL and high levels of fatigue were more likely to have low levels of serum complement C4 (i.e. elevated immune activity). In conclusion, patients who are treated according to the Euro-Lupus protocol may experience a higher HRQoL than patients who receive the NIH treatment. However, chemotherapy remains burdensome in the low-dose treatment regimen. Potential interventions to further enhance the HRQoL in SLE patients with proliferative lupus nephritis are discussed.     

An outcomes model of medical decision making

In the traditional fix-it model of medical decision making, the identified problem is typically characterized by a diagnosis that indicates a deviation from normalcy. When a medical problem is multifaceted and the available interventions are only partially effective, a broader vision of the health care endeavor is needed. What matters to the patient, and what should matter to the practitioner, is the patient's future possibilities. More specifically, what is important is the character of the alternative futures that the patient could have and choosing among them so as to achieve the best future possible, with the ranking of outcomes determined by the patient's preferences. This paper describes the fix-it model, presents and defends the outcomes-based model, and demonstrates that the latter is useful in developing normative conceptions of informed consent and decision making and in establishing a basis for societal involvement in the decision making process. Finally, several shortcomings of the model will be acknowledged.     

Impact of health beliefs, quality of life, and the physician-patient relationship on the treatment intentions of inflammatory bowel disease patients.

The research tested a model of treatment decision making in chronic illness that includes health beliefs, quality of life, and relationship with the physician (shared or not). Inflammatory bowel disease patients (N = 218) reported on their physician-patient relationship, general and disease-specific quality of life, and intentions to take a drug, for which perceived benefits and costs were manipulated. For more symptomatic patients, both costs and benefits predicted intentions; however, for less symptomatic patients, costs played a more important role. Physician recommendation predicted intention primarily among those who shared a decision-making relationship with their physician. Overall, the model accounted for 57.8% of the variance in medication-taking intention. Findings suggest that an integrative consideration of relationship factors, health beliefs, and health status may help explain treatment intentions among the chronically ill.     

The Effects of Alternative Labels on Decision Behavior: The Case of Corporate Site Selection Decisions

The influence of alternative labels on decision processes and outcomes were examined in a multidimensional decision task with realistic decision information and experienced decision makers. Based on prior research, it was predicted that labels would influence selection and ratings of decision alternatives, as well as the extent of information search and the information search strategies. Subjects (n = 26) experienced in making and/or aiding business relocation decisions completed two computer controlled site selection tasks: one with labeled locations and one with unlabeled locations. Results indicated that labeling influenced both decision processes and location ratings. An interaction between order of task completion and labeling suggested that labeling effects on decision making may be minimized if an unlabeled task is completed prior to a labeled task. Implications and limitations are discussed in terms of labeling effects and decision quality.     

Consequences of Regret Aversion 2: Additional Evidence for Effects of Feedback on Decision Making

We discuss the effects of anticipated and experienced regret on decision making under uncertainty. In previous research, using the standard, context-free, gamble paradigm, we found that decision makers anticipate the regret they can experience as a result of post-decisional feedback on forgone outcomes (Zeelenberg, Beattie, van der Pligt, & de Vries, 1996). In the present research we move away from the gamble paradigm, on to richer contexts. In Experiments 1 and 2, involving investment decision making and decision making in the ultimatum game, it is shown that the expectation of feedback on forgone outcomes influences decision making and can promote more risk seeking behavior. Experiment 3 focused on effects of retrospective regret and shows that actual feedback on foregone outcomes influences the experience of regret and subsequent decision making. The results of these studies support our earlier work on regret aversion.     

An exploratory study of the health decision-making variables of New York and Montana ninth-graders

The health decision-making dynamics of adolescents in New York and Montana are assessed. Ninth-grade students were asked to make a decision on a hypothetical dilemma scenario. From their choice they were classified as either health-promoting decision makers (HPDM) or health-risky decision makers (HRDM). They were subsequently asked a series of questions dealing with future health choices, degree of reflection, the effect of stress upon choice selection, and type of cognition during decision. Results indicate that HPDM intended not to engage in future, risky sexual behavior or drinking and driving behavior(s). Health-risky decision makers were, however, more reflective in making their initial choice. The variable of stress was not definitive for either group, and significant regional differences were not evident. Implications for the design of school health education program curricula are presented along with suggestions for future investigation.     

The Influence of Decision Makers' Goals on Their Concerns About Procedural Justice1

Two studies examine how decision makers' goals of enhancing organizational effectiveness and promoting positive interpersonal relations shape their decision making when they are allocating scarce resources among group members. Past research has conceptualized this problem as one of balancing between the use of two distributive justice principles: equity and equality. The studies reported examine the degree to which authorities are also concerned about issues of procedural justice. The results suggest that experienced decision makers—both managerial and administrative—believe that when trying to maintain positive interpersonal relations it is as important to use decision-making procedures that will be regarded as fair (procedural justice) as it is to allocate outcomes in ways which will be regarded as fair (distributive justice). Decision makers' definitions of procedural justice are also examined.     

On avoiding framing effects in experienced decision makers

The present study aimed to (a) demonstrate the effect of positive–negative framing on experienced criminal justice decision makers, (b) examine the debiasing effect of visually structured risk messages, and (c) investigate whether risk perceptions mediate the debiasing effect of visual aids on decision making. In two phases, 60 senior police officers estimated the accuracy of a counterterrorism technique in identifying whether a known terror suspect poses an imminent danger and decided whether they would recommend the technique to policy makers. Officers also rated their confidence in this recommendation. When information about the effectiveness of the counterterrorism technique was presented in a numerical format, officers' perceptions of accuracy and recommendation decisions were susceptible to the framing effect: The technique was perceived to be more accurate and was more likely to be recommended when its effectiveness was presented in a positive than in a negative frame. However, when the information was represented visually using icon arrays, there were no such framing effects. Finally, perceptions of accuracy mediated the debiasing effect of visual aids on recommendation decisions. We offer potential explanations for the debiasing effect of visual aids and implications for communicating risk to experienced, professional decision makers.     

Analytic Confidence and Political Decision‐Making: Theoretical Principles and Experimental Evidence From National Security Professionals

When making decisions under uncertainty, it is important to distinguish between the probability that a judgment is true and the confidence analysts possess in drawing their conclusions. Yet analysts and decision‐makers often struggle to define “confidence” in this context, and many ways that scholars use this term do not necessarily facilitate decision‐making under uncertainty. To help resolve this confusion, we argue for disaggregating analytic confidence along three dimensions: reliability of available evidence, range of reasonable opinion, and responsiveness to new information. After explaining how these attributes hold different implications for decision‐making in principle, we present survey experiments examining how analysts and decision‐makers employ these ideas in practice. Our first experiment found that each conception of confidence distinctively influenced national security professionals' evaluations of high‐stakes decisions. Our second experiment showed that inexperienced assessors of uncertainty could consistently discriminate among our conceptions of confidence when making political forecasts. We focus on national security, where debates about defining “confidence levels” have clear practical implications. But our theoretical framework generalizes to nearly any area of political decision‐making, and our empirical results provide encouraging evidence that analysts and decision‐makers can grasp these abstract elements of uncertainty.     

A new fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for group site selection in GIS

Multiple criteria group site selection problems involve a group of individuals evaluating a set of alternative sites on the basis of multiple criteria. This paper presents an application of a new fuzzy algorithm for finding and exploring potential solutions to these problems in a raster Geographical Information System (GIS) environment. Linguistic assessments from decision‐makers are represented as triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN's), which are adjusted for uncertainty in the source data and their relationship to suitability by using an approach based on type‐2 fuzzy sets. The first aggregation of inputs is a compensatory one based on fuzzy multiattribute decision‐making (MADM) theory. An adjusted aggregation then factors in conflicts, risks and uncertainties to enable a variety of compensatory and non‐compensatory outcomes to be generated based on decision‐maker preferences. The algorithm was implemented in ArcView GIS as part of an ongoing collaborative project with Brisbane Airport. This paper outlines the fuzzy algorithm and its use in site selection for a recycling facility on the Brisbane Airport site. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Escalation research: providing new frontiers for applying behavior analysis to organizational behavior

Decision fiascoes such as escalation of commitment, the tendency of decision makers to "throw good money after bad," can have serious consequences for organizations and are therefore of great interest in applied research. This paper discusses the use of behavior analysis in organizational behavior research on escalation. Among the most significant aspects of behavior-analytic research on escalation is that it has indicated that both the patterns of outcomes that decision makers have experienced for past decisions and the patterns of responses that they make are critical for understanding escalation. This research has also stimulated the refinement of methods by researchers to better assess decision making and the role reinforcement plays in it. Finally, behavior-analytic escalation research has not only indicated the utility of reinforcement principles for predicting more complex human behavior but has also suggested some additional areas for future exploration of decision making using behavior analysis.     

“Either a medal or a corporal”: The effects of success and failure on the evaluation of decision making and decision makers

This paper is concerned with judgment by outcomes—justifying decisions and rewarding decision makers in case of success, and condemning both in case of failure. Officers in the Israel Defense Forces evaluated four versions of the same case of decision making in a military setting. In two versions the decision maker obeys his orders, in two he disobeys them to take a normatively appropriate action; one of each decision is successful, one of each fails. Though the cases are identical except for the above differences, successful decisions are considered more justified and to follow from superior decision making processes; decision making processes are perceived as more satisfactory when they lead to success, and successful decision makers are perceived more favorably than their unsuccessful counterparts. Role expectations regarding appropriate action influenced the justification of decisions and perceived favorability of decision makers and interacted with outcome valence in determining the allocation of reward and punishment and the evaluation of the decision making process. The paper discusses implications of the findings to Behavioral Decision Theory, Attribution Theory, and Organizational Learning.     

自我—他人危机决策信息加工过程的差异:来自眼动的证据

本研究采用iView X-RED眼动仪,分两个实验来考察自我-他人危机决策的信息加工过程的差异。实验一采用单因素实验设计探讨自我-他人危机决策的信息加工过程,结果表明：为自我决策组的平均阅读时间、平均注视时间、平均注视次数、平均凝视时间、平均回视次数都显著高于为他人决策组。实验二采用2（任务框架：积极,消极）x2（决策者角色：为自我、为他人）混合实验设计,结果表明：在积极框架下,为自我决策组平均阅读时间、平均注视时间、平均注视次数、平均凝视时间、平均回视次数显著高于为他人决策组;在消极框架下,两个组没有显著差异。总体表现为,自我-他人危机决策的信息加工过程存在差异,且受任务框架的影响。