Time and decision making in humans

Decision making requires evaluating alternatives that differ on a number of attributes. During this evaluation process, selection of options depends on the duration of the options, the duration of the expected delay for realizing the options, and the time available to reach a decision. This article reviews the relationship between time and decision making in humans with respect to this evaluation process. Moreover, the role of psychological time, as compared with physical time, is accentuated. Five topics have been selected that illustrate how time and mental representations of time affect decision making. These are (1) the duration of options, (2) temporal decision making, (3) the time between having made a decision and experiencing the consequences of that decision, (4) the temporal perspective of decision makers, and (5) the duration of the decision process. The discussion of each topic is supplemented by suggestions for further research. It is shown that psychological time is often neglected in human decision making but seems to play an important role in the making of choices.     

Justification pressure in risky decision making: search for risk defusing operators

Under justification pressure, the decision maker knows in advance that the decision has to be justified to somebody afterwards. The effect of justification pressure on the search for risk defusing operators (RDOs) and the role of RDOs in the justification texts were investigated. An RDO is an action intended by the decision maker to be performed in addition to an otherwise attractive alternative to decrease the risk. As predicted, in Experiment 1 participants (60 non-students) under justification pressure searched more RDOs. Additionally, in Experiment 2 (80 non-students) RDO search success was varied. Under justification pressure, persistence of RDO search was higher when no RDO could be detected. In the justification texts, the existence or non-existence of RDOs played a prominent role. Searching for RDOs supports people in their goal to make a good decision and in their attempt to convince the addressee of their justification that the decision was good.     

Individual differences in need for cognition and decision making in the Iowa Gambling Task

Differences in decision making between individuals differing in Need for Cognition (NFC) are examined using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Previous work using normative one time decisions suggests that individual low in NFC process gains and losses differently than those high in NFC and are more susceptible to decision biases. The IGT is a popular laboratory task that involves making risky decisions from experience involving both gains and losses. In the first experiment, low NFC participants performed significantly worse than the high NFC participants. A second experiment designed to examine the nature of these differences provides evidence that low NFC participants place more importance on gains as opposed to losses when performing the IGT. Results are discussed in light of previous work suggesting that low NFC participants place more importance on losses in mixed outcome decisions.     

Implicit emotional biases in decision making: the case of the Iowa Gambling Task

Many authors have endorsed the hypothesis that previous emotional experiences may exert a covert influence on behavior, but some findings and replications of the original studies challenged this view. We investigated this topic by carrying out an experiment with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), where a dissociation procedure was adopted to successfully isolate possible implicit components. After a typical interaction with the IGT, participants performed a "blind" card selection phase without receiving any feedback. Half of them were instructed to continue choosing as they did before, the other half was told that good card decks turned bad, and vice versa, so that explicit knowledge was necessary to overcome the previously learned deck-outcome associations. The results confirmed the existence of early acquired implicit biases, confirming that previously experienced emotional events may covertly affect subsequent behavior.     

The difference between punishments and rewards in fostering moral concerns in social decision making

In social decision making, punishing non-cooperation and rewarding cooperation may not only affect cooperation because of instrumental reasons. They may also evoke moral concerns regarding cooperation as they signal that cooperation is socially approved of and non-cooperation socially disapproved of. I argue that punishments do this to a greater extent than rewards as punishments communicate an obligatory rule and rewards communicate a voluntary rule. Indeed, the first experiment shows that, in a social dilemma, the concept of punishment increased cooperation and the concept of a reward did not. The second experiment showed that participants showed more disapproval towards an offender when there was a punishment for non-compliance than when there was a reward for compliance. These findings suggest that punishing non-cooperation more strongly foster moral concerns regarding cooperation than rewarding cooperation. Possible implications for internalizations are discussed.     

Response inhibition during perceptual decision making in humans and macaques

Response inhibition in stop signal tasks has been explained as the outcome of a race between GO and STOP processes (e.g., Logan, 1981). Response choice in two-alternative perceptual categorization tasks has been explained as the outcome of an accumulation of evidence for the alternative responses. To begin unifying these two powerful investigation frameworks, we obtained data from humans and macaque monkeys performing a stop signal task with responses guided by perceptual categorization and variable degrees of difficulty, ranging from low to high accuracy. Comparable results across species reinforced the validity of this animal model. Response times and errors increased with categorization difficulty. The probability of failing to inhibit responses on stop signal trials increased with stop signal delay, and the response times for failed stop signal trials were shorter than those for trials with no stop signal. Thus, the Logan race model could be applied to estimate the duration of the stopping process. We found that the duration of the STOP process did not vary across a wide range of discrimination accuracies. This is consistent with the functional, and possibly mechanistic, independence of choice and inhibition mechanisms.     

Corporate foreign exchange risk management: A study in decision making under uncertainty

This paper examines the management of foreign exchange risk in multinational corporations in light of the conclusions of previous empirical and theoretical investigations into decision making under uncertainty. Cognitive perceptions of risk and uncertainty are shown to underlie the hedging decisions made by corporate treasury managers, which are often demonstrably sub-optimal in a Bayesian expected utility framework. The findings suggest that simple principal-agent approaches to explaining seemingly sub-optimal corporate risk management preferences are inadequate inasmuch as they fail to account for the markedly different perspectives on risk and uncertainty taken by financial economists (qua economists) and corporate financial risk managers.     

Adolescents' performance on the Iowa Gambling Task: implications for the development of decision making and ventromedial prefrontal cortex

Healthy adolescents (79 girls, 66 boys), ages 9-17, completed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; A. Bechara, A. R. Damasio, H. Damasio, & S. W. Anderson, 1994) as well as working memory (digit span) and behavioral inhibition (go/no-go) tasks. Cross-sectional age-related changes were seen on all 3 tasks. Gender differences were seen in IGT deck preference and attentional variables (i.e., go/no-go hit rate and forward digit span). After age, gender, and general intellectual abilities were controlled for, IGT performance was not predicted by working memory or behavioral inhibition scores. Findings suggest that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex or its connections are functionally maturing during adolescence in a manner that can be distinguished from maturation of other prefrontal regions. Development of these functions may continue into young adulthood.     

Self-control in adult humans: variation in positive reinforcer amount and delay.

In five experiments, choice responding of female human adults was examined, as a function of variations in reinforcer amount and reinforcer delay. Experiment 1 used a discrete-trials procedure, and Experiments 2, 3, 4, and 5 used a concurrent variable-interval variable-interval schedule. Reinforcer amount and reinforcer delay were varied both separately and together. In contrast to results previously reported with pigeons, the subjects in the present experiments usually chose the larger reinforcers even when those reinforcers were delayed. Together, the results from all the experiments suggest that the subjects followed a maximization strategy in choosing reinforcers. Such behavior makes it easy to observe self-control and difficult to observe impulsiveness in traditional laboratory experiments that use adult human subjects.     

Neural correlates of Traditional Chinese Medicine induced advantageous risk-taking decision making

This fMRI study examined the neural correlates of the observed improvement in advantageous risk-taking behavior, as measured by the number of adjusted pumps in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), following a 60-day course of a Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) recipe, specifically designed to regulate impulsiveness in order to modulate risk-taking behavior. The 14 participants recruited for this study were randomly assigned to the experimental and control groups and the TCM recipe (Panax, 520 mg; Astragalus membranaceous Bunge, 520 mg; Masnetitum, 840 mg; Ostrea gigas Thumb, 470 mg; Thinleaf Milkwort Root Radix Polygalae, 450 mg; and Os Draconis, 470 mg) was administered, as a diet supplement, to the seven participants in the experimental group. The neural activity of the two groups was monitored by a 3T MRI scanner, before and after the 60-day treatment. Associated with the improved advantageous risk-taking behavior seen in the experimental group, significantly stronger blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) responses were observed in the bilateral dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), left putamen, left thalamus, right insula, and right anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), regions which have previously been reported as being involved in risk-taking decision making. The effect of the TCM in improving advantageous risk-taking decision making appears to have been related to the enhanced efficiency of the cognitive affective system, the PFC–ACC–insula–striatum network, which functions to inhibit impulsiveness, to sensitize reward-related information, and to allow the opportunity, during risk estimation, to evaluate potential gains and losses. The findings of this study suggest that interventions acting on factors modulating risk-taking decision making could have a beneficial effect in terms of optimizing risk-taking behavior.     

Common and distinct factors in decision making under ambiguity and risk: A psychometric study of individual differences

The relation between decision making under ambiguity and risky decision making was examined. In Studies 1 and 2, choices under ambiguity were measured for a large sample receiving an Ellsberg-type Ambiguity-Probability Tradeoff Task. Participants with extreme scores were recruited for Part 2 of each study which consisted of a risky decision making task (Study 1) or a series of decisions under ambiguity in “real life” scenarios (Study 2). Despite a time gap of up to 2 months, individual differences in scores on Part 1 predicted scores on Part 2. In Study 3 participants received in a single session several risky decision making tasks, several measures of decision making under ambiguity, and several personality scales related to uncertainty and decision making style. Taken together, the findings support the existence of a stable dispositional trait to reduce uncertainty in decision making but also task-specific differences related to gains and losses.     

Prototype matching: a strategy for social decision making

College students responded to a series of questionnaires while they were in the process of selecting housing from a choice of seven available options for the coming fall. Questionnaires concerned their self-concepts, their housing prototypes, their preferences in housing, and their goals in housing selection. Overall analyses of the self-to-prototype matching strategy suggest that most students indeed prefer the type of housing for which their prototype of the "representative" resident most closely matches their self-perceptions. More important, we obtained individual differences in attention to self-fit in situations. Of individuals who reported that they had interpersonal goals in the housing selection task, those who reported that many personality characteristics (both positive and negative) were untrue of self were more systematic in their use of the self-to-prototype matching rule, this was also true of low self-monitors. Neither pattern of individual differences obtained for students with practical goals in the housing decision.     

Group decision making in hidden profile situations: dissent as a facilitator for decision quality

The effect of diversity in individual prediscussion preferences on group decision quality was examined in an experiment in which 135 three-person groups worked on a personnel selection case with 4 alternatives. The information distribution among group members constituted a hidden profile (i.e., the correct solution was not identifiable on the basis of the members' individual information and could be detected only by pooling and integrating the members' unique information). Whereas groups with homogeneous suboptimal prediscussion preferences (no dissent) hardly ever solved the hidden profile, solution rates were significantly higher in groups with prediscussion dissent, even if none of these individual prediscussion preferences were correct. If dissent came from a proponent of the correct solution, solution rates were even higher than in dissent groups without such a proponent. The magnitude of dissent (i.e., minority dissent or full diversity of individual preferences) did not affect decision quality. The beneficial effect of dissent on group decision quality was mediated primarily by greater discussion intensity and to some extent also by less discussion bias in dissent groups.     

Gambling primates: reactions to a modified Iowa Gambling Task in humans,chimpanzees and capuchin monkeys

Humans will, at times, act against their own economic self-interest, for example, in gambling situations. To explore the evolutionary roots of this behavior, we modified a traditional human gambling task, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), for use with chimpanzees, capuchin monkeys and humans. We expanded the traditional task to include two additional payoff structures to fully elucidate the ways in which these primate species respond to differing reward distributions versus overall quantities of rewards, a component often missing in the existing literature. We found that while all three species respond as typical humans do in the standard IGT payoff structure, species and individual differences emerge in our new payoff structures. Specifically, when variance avoidance and reward maximization conflicted, roughly equivalent numbers of apes maximized their rewards and avoided variance, indicating that the traditional payoff structure of the IGT is insufficient to disentangle these competing strategies. Capuchin monkeys showed little consistency in their choices. To determine whether this was a true species difference or an effect of task presentation, we replicated the experiment but increased the intertrial interval. In this case, several capuchin monkeys followed a reward maximization strategy, while chimpanzees retained the same strategy they had used previously. This suggests that individual differences in strategies for interacting with variance and reward maximization are present in apes, but not in capuchin monkeys. The primate gambling task presented here is a useful methodology for disentangling strategies of variance avoidance and reward maximization.     

Subjective decision making in medical school admissions: Potentials for discrimination

Medical schools place considerable emphasis on admissions interviews in the selection of students. Interviews, with unwritten performance criteria and subjective evaluation, contain the potential for unconscious discrimination against certain groups of applicants. This study investigates the contribution of interview scores to the total evaluation of male and female applicants for admission to one medical school in the United States. Findings reveal that interveiw scores are counted more heavily for females than males in arriving at a final ranking for admission. Further, females were rated lower in general than males on interview evaluations. While the magnitude of the associations is small, the combined effect points to a potential for discrimination, however unintended, against women applicants in the present case study.The authors appreciate the valuable criticisms of and comments on an earlier draft from Drs. Sidney Fleming, Dorothy Brinsfiled, Glenn Clark, Maurice Jurkiewicz, and Michael Kutner, some of whom may still take exception to parts of this article.     

Satisficing in financial decision making — a theoretical and experimental approach to bounded rationality

We apply the theoretical construct of bounded rationality to an investment game, allowing participants to invest their monetary endowment in riskless bonds and risky assets. In our experiment, we elicit aspiration levels from participants: one captures a subsistence threshold, the other a success threshold. Participants can be classified according to these aspirations and the corresponding investment behavior. We differentiate between potential and actual satisficing. By presupposing specific cardinal utility functions, we also relate the bounded rationality approach to the traditional rational choice model.     

Vocational choice: A decision making perspective

We propose a model of vocational choice that can be used for analyzing and guiding the decision processes underlying career and job choices. Our model is based on research in behavioral decision making (BDM), in particular the choice goals framework developed by Bettman, Luce, and Payne (1998). The basic model involves two major processes. First, the selection of a decision strategy according to four choice goals: maximizing decision accuracy, minimizing cognitive effort, minimizing negative emotion, and maximizing justifiability of the decision. Second, the construction of situation-specific preferences, which can reflect irrelevant task and context factors such as the evaluation mode. This basic model is extended to account for social influences and the long decision time typical of most career and job decisions. We review research on vocational choice in light of this model, discuss normative implications for counseling, and outline a research agenda for studying vocational choice from a behavioral decision making perspective.     

The current environment for medical decision making: Alternative efficiency concepts and decision motivation

Health services delivery is rapidly changing in the U.S. and along with it the incentives and motives for making decisions about the use of services. This paper discusses the economic criteria for making good decisions from both individual and social perspectives. The position is taken that individual criteria for decision-making efficiency in health services is quite different from social efficiency criteria but the two perspectives can be viewed as complementary. These criteria are used to examine current developments in health services, including aggressively competitive managed care. The analysis concludes that current directions may be in conflict with both social and individual efficiency. Alternative public policies are required to alter motives and incentives such that decisions better meet the complementary efficiency criteria.Originally prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Atlanta, Georgia, February 17, 1995, as part of the symposium Cognitive Interpersonal, and Societal Influences on Medical Decision Making (A. M. Isen and B. S. Moore, Chairs).     

Decision making styles and progress in occupational decision making

This study provides a reexamination of the role of different decisional strategies in facilitating progress in occupational decision making. Although the assumptions that a rational decision making style is the preferred mode of vocational functioning has been endorsed in a variety of career theories and interventions, there has been conflicting evidence about the validity of this assumption. To examine the role of different decisional approaches in the progress of making an occupational decision, the rational, intuitive, and dependent decision making style scores of 71 undergraduate students were used to predict progress in occupational decision making. The results of the regression analyses failed to provide support for the assumption that a rational style is the most effective in accomplishing this careerrelated task, but indicated strong support for the conclusion that the use of dependent decisional strategies is damaging, particularly in early stages of the decisional process.