Rationality and bounded information in repeated games, with application to the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma

Actions in a repeated game can in principle depend on all previous outcomes. Given this vast policy space, human players may often be forced to use heuristics that base actions on incomplete information, such as the outcomes of only the most recent trials. Here it is proven that such bounded rationality is often fully rational, in that the optimal policy based on some limited information about the game's history will be universally optimal (i.e., within the full policy space), provided that one's opponents are restricted to using this same information. It is then shown how this result allows explicit calculation of subgame-perfect equilibria (SPEs) for any repeated or stochastic game. The technique is applied to the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma for the case of 1-back memory. Two classes of SPEs are derived, which exhibit varying degrees of (individually rational) cooperation as a result of repeated interaction.     

合作指数与描述方式对儿童囚徒困境博弈中合作行为的影响

本研究采用囚徒困境任务,考察了91名10~12岁儿童和101名成人在博弈决策中合作行为的特点。并分别考察合作指数和描述方式这两个变量对个体合作性的影响。结果表明:(1)描述方式对儿童的合作行为有显著影响,表现为"回避"描述中较之"趋向"描述有更多合作行为,而描述方式对成人则无影响。(2)儿童对合作指数不敏感,平均合作率显著高于成人,表现出合作倾向;成人平均合作率随合作指数的升高而升高,但始终处于几率水平之下,表现出竞争倾向。     

Leaders' Perceptions and Nuclear Proliferation: A Political Psychology Approach to Proliferation

Contributing to an emerging scholarship emphasizing ideational approaches for understanding nuclear proliferation, this work offers a new analytical framework focusing on leaders' perceptions about the international system and how their “perceived strategic context” may influence the decision of “going nuclear.” Rather than being an inevitable occurrence driven by abstract systemic factors, like the security dilemma, this actor‐specific, ideational approach offers a narrative depicting the fundamental role played by policy makers' perceptions about the international environment in which their proliferation decisions are made. Utilizing operational code analysis, leaders' unique perceived strategic contexts are identified and expectant strategies for self and other analyzed by using the theory of moves sequential game construct. Initial testing of the framework is performed by examining the debated nuclear proliferation cases of South Africa and India. The results highlight the important role of individuals' views concerning the strategic environment they inhabit when weighing proliferation decisions.     

Solving Wollheim's Dilemma: A Fix for the Institutional Definition of Art

Richard Wollheim threatened George Dickie's institutional definition of art with a dilemma which entailed that the theory is either redundant or incomprehensible and useless. This article modifies the definition to avoid such criticism. First, it shows that the definition's concept of the artworld is not vague when understood as a conventional system of beliefs and practices. Then, based on Gaut's cluster theory, it provides an account of reasons artworld members have to confer the status of a candidate for appreciation. An authorised member of an artworld has a good reason to confer the status on an object if it satisfies a subset of criteria respected as sufficient within this artworld. The first horn of the dilemma is averted because explaining the reasons behind conferral cannot eliminate references to the institution, and the second loses its sharpness, as accepting partial arbitrariness of the conferral does not deprive the theory of its explanatory power.     

Clarifying Amateurism: A Logical Approach to Resolving the Exploitation of College Athletes Dilemma

In this paper we investigate the logical consequences of the common understanding of amateurism in the context of big-time US college athletics, and in so doing, illustrate a method based on linguistic analysis and logic. The initial thrust of the paper centres on the term ‘amateur’ as presupposed by the late Professor Brand in his attempt to justify the ‘business’ of NCAA-sponsored Division I sports by decoupling the ‘participants from the enterprise’. Next, we examine a more rigorous definition of the term ‘amateur’ in order to show more clearly the difficulties posed by the current situation in college athletics. Additionally, our use of linguistic analysis exposes a flaw in the NCAA's recent move to amend by-law 12.02 in an attempt to avoid the charge of exploitation. Lastly, we put forth a new proposal for better dealing with the central issues swirling around the NCAA as it strives to formulate sound policy at this ‘tectonic’ juncture of players, fans, college programmes and academic integrity.     

A Grounded Approach to the Study of Complex Systems

The complex and dynamic nature of systems pose a particular challenge to researchers and require the use of a research methodology designed to deal with such systems. The properties of fit, relevance, understandability, generality, control, workability, generalizability, and modifiability make Glaserian grounded theory and grounded action particularly well suited for studying systems. These methods are innovative, systemic, and sophisticated enough to reveal the underlying complexities of systems and plan actions that address their complex, dynamic nature while remaining grounded in what is occurring within the systems as they change over time.     

Chaos Theology: A New Approach to the Science-Theology Dialogue

Comparison of the concepts of creation from chaos and creation out of nothing ( creatio ex nihilo ) leads me to reject the latter for several reasons: it is not the biblical concept, and it presents serious conceptual, scientific, and theological problems. Chaos theology is outlined under the headings creation from chaos; chaos and contingency; chaos, evil, and creativity; chaos and incarnation; chaos and eschatology. It is shown to be well suited for the science-theology dialogue by some examples of its application to aspects of cosmic and biological evolution: initial mystery, separation and ordering; chaos and entropy; contingency and fine-tuning of the universe; purpose and progressiveness in evolution; and complexity theory and chaos events.     

Anger,Exposure to Violence,and Intragroup Conflict: A “Lab in the Field” Experiment in Southern Israel

I examine how anger stemming from violence in the Israel‐Palestine conflict influences intragroup retaliation. In July 2010 I conducted a series of experiments in two cities in the Southern District of Israel affected to varying degrees (high and low) by rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. For each experiment, subjects were partnered anonymously with a member of their community. They were then exposed to one of two emotional manipulations: one that induced anger or one that did not. Finally, each subject was given an opportunity to keep an endowment or allocate it towards destroying a portion, or all, of their partner's income (“pay to punish”) in retaliation for their partner having taken money from them previously. This decision to “pay to punish” was designed to closely mimic the costly nature of conflict. The findings suggest that anger has a conditional effect on decisions to pay to punish: in Sderot (most affected by rocket fire), anger decreases punishment, while in Ofakim (less affected), it increases punishment. Additionally, higher exposure to violence made subjects more likely to engage in negative reciprocity.     

A Sensory Integrative Approach to the Psychotic Child

Current knowledge provides ample evidence of widespread neurological and developmental impairments underlying the behavior of psychotic youngsters. Occupational Therapy can now assess, treat, and make "sense" of the psychotic child's disturbed systems. A case study of a severely disturbed, self-abusing, childhood schizophrenic patient is presented. The treatment process and behavioral changes are discussed and augmented with statistical analysis.     

A (Post)Foundational Approach to the Philosophy of Science: Part II

Summary  This is a sequel to my paper, “Searching for a (Post)Foundational Approach to Philosophy of Science”, which appeared in an earlier issue of this Journal [Ginev 2001, Journal for General Philosophy of science 32, 27–37]. In the present paper I continue to scrutinize the possibility of a strong hermeneutics of scientific research. My aim is to defend the position of cognitive existentialism that combines the advocacy of science’s cognitive specificity and the rejection of any form of essentialism. A special attention will be paid to the notion of the thematizing project of scientific research.     

当代中国医患关系的合理重构——论我国社会转型期医患利益的调节与平衡

我国社会转型 ,为当代中国医患关系的合理重构提供了平台 ,但社会转型期中出现的诸多医患利益冲突也向人们提出了严峻的挑战 ,亟需对其加以调节和平衡。这种调节与平衡 ,不能完全甚至不能主要地交由市场这双“看不见的手”去运作 ,不能完全任凭甚至不能主要地任凭医患双方自由地去博弈 ;政府必须明确并履行自己的职责 ,为正确调节与平衡我国社会转型期的医患利益创立一个全方位的合理的框架 ,使医患之间在有控制的理性的双赢的利益博弈中合理地重构当代中国医患关系的基本格局。     

A Method for Introducing the Concepts of Chaos Theory to Medical Students

Chaos theory is beginning to find applications in the field of medicine. The theory of chaos should be introduced to students to help them as they make the transition from learning the scientific literature to actually applying this newly acquired knowledge in clinical situations. Chaos theory will give the students a powerful conceptual framework from which they can better understand the limits of predictability in clinical situations. Failure to understand the limits of predictability in chaotic natural systems will invariably lead to frustration in both patients and physicians.     

A child-centred exploration of the relevance of family and friends to theory of mind development

Theory of Mind (ToM) is said to develop at around 4 years old. But some studies suggest it develops considerably earlier than this, with others suggesting it develops much later. Although several recent studies have found that social factors (like gender, family size, number of siblings, and number of friends) can impact on ToM, other studies contradict those findings. We wondered whether addressing several procedural issues and ensuring the task concerns real protagonists in real time, would bear on the above issues. Here, 114 children of 3-6 years completed four ToM tasks incorporating controls from experimental psychology, including randomly varying the order of ToM and non-ToM questions across participants. Now, children passed ToM tasks from around 5 years old, rather than 4 years or earlier. Girls did not develop ToM any earlier than boys. There was clear correlational evidence for the older-sibling effect and effects of friends but no reliable effects of nuclear or extended family. However, when these factors were set in the context of one another, the sibling effect was driven by a negative influence from younger siblings (as opposed to older siblings) and the friends effect was driven by friends at school (as opposed to friends at home). Finally, "friends" was a stronger predictor than siblings but memory (a cognitive factor) and age (a maturational factor) were the strongest predictors of all.     

A Pragma-Dialectical Approach of the Analysis and Evaluation of Pragmatic Argumentation in a Legal Context

This paper answers the question how pragmatic argumentation which occurs in a legal context, can be analyzed and evaluated adequately. First, the author surveys various ideas taken from argumentation theory and legal theory on the analysis and evaluation of pragmatic argumentation. Then, on the basis of these ideas, she develops a pragma-dialectical instrument for analyzing and evaluating pragmatic argumentation in a legal context. Finally she demonstrates how this instrument can be used by giving an exemplary analysis and evaluation of pragmatic argumentation in a decision of the Dutch Supreme Court.     

A teacher‐centered exploration of the relevance of social factors to theory of mind development

Many accounts of children's Theory of Mind (ToM) development favor a cognitive explanation, for example, in terms of mental representational improvements at or before 4 years. Here, we investigated whether social factors as rated by a child's teacher, are related to ToM development. We tested 82 children of 3–6 years on each of four ToM tasks, and their class teacher completed a social questionnaire about each child's playing behavior, sharing, talkativeness, confidence, aggressiveness and outgoingness. A measure of task memory and the child's gender were also recorded. Here, children generally passed ToM tasks after 5 years‐old, but no one gender performed reliably better than the other. Teacher‐rated confidence and playing behavior were correlated to ToM. But in a regression analysis, these were replaced by teacher‐rated talkativeness; with age and memory given primacy in both sets of analyses. It is concluded that maturation and cognitive factors may well have primacy but social factors, facilitated during early primary education, must also be given a role in ToM development.     

A brief introduction to the work of Jean Laplanche

The author proposes an introduction to the work of Jean Laplanche, a well‐known figure of psychoanalysis who recently passed away. He foregrounds what he views as the three main axes of Laplanche's work: firstly, a critical reading method applied to Freud's texts; secondly, a model of psychic functioning based on translation; and, thirdly, a theory of general seduction. Far from being an abstract superstructure, the theory of general seduction is firmly rooted in the analytic situation, as the provocation of transference by the analyst best illustrates. The analytic situation indeed consists in a revival and a reopening of the ‘fundamental anthropological situation’ which, according to Laplanche, is the lot of every human baby born in a world where he or she is necessarily exposed to the enigmatic and ‘compromised’ messages of the adult other. Thanks to the process of analytic de‐translation, the analysand is therefore granted an opportunity to carry out new translations of the other's enigma – translations or symbolizations that might be more inclusive and less rigid than the pre‐existing ones. Incidentally, such a model brings together the purely psychoanalytic and the psychotherapeutic aspects of the treatment.     

A brief explanation of the Chu bamboo slips Hengxian

The discovery of Hengxian and the formation of the category of hengxian are an important recapitulation and creative integration of the theory of the ontological Dao (Tao) in the Pre-Qin period. The cosmology of “self-creating and self-functioning” in Hengxian and the theory of “self-creating and self-evolving” in Liezi and Zhuangzi can be mutually interpreted. It indicates that the theory of transformation of qi entered a quite mature state in the Warring States Period. __________ Translated from Qilu Xuekan 齐鲁学刊 (Qilu Academic Journal), 2005 (1) by Yan Xin     

关于帛书《易之义》解说坤卦卦爻辞之文义的辨正

用<说卦传>的八卦方位说或汉易卦气说去解说<周易>坤卦卦辞,都会遇到岁时和方位逆行的问题,这是违背八卦方位与卦气原理的.这表明有学者据帛书<易之义>中"岁之义"的说法推断<周易>本经中有卦气思想的看法是行不通的.细考帛书原文,其"岁之义,始于东北,成于西南"一句其实本非解说坤辞"西南得朋,东北丧朋"的,而是解说初六爻辞的.而就爻辞"履霜坚冰至"一语本身而言,我们无法从中看出什么方位问题,传本<易传>亦无此类解读,故帛书有关"岁之义"的说法只能视为帛书制作时代的观念.     

Early pathways to bullying: A prospective longitudinal study examining the influences of theory of mind and social preference on bullying behaviour during the first 3 years of school

Research has focused on the role of theory of mind (ToM) for positive social behaviour, while the association between ToM and negative social behaviours is less well understood. This longitudinal study compares two mediation models examining the role of ToM and peer-rated social preference at ages 5 and 6 for bullying at age 7. Participants were 114 children (58 boys, M_age = 67 months) at entry to primary school (T1). At Time 2 (T2), 106 children and, at Time 3 (T3), 96 children remained. Teacher-rated externalizing problems and children’s language ability were controlled at T1. Poor ToM was found to indirectly predict later bullying via poor social preference, while for boys only, greater earlier ToM directly predicted greater bullying 2 years later. These results suggest that there are different pathways to bullying via ToM and social preference , which has implications for interventions to prevent the development of bullying behaviour.