Generating and evaluating options for decision making: the impact of sequentially presented evidence

We examined how decision makers generate and evaluate hypotheses when data are presented sequentially. In the first 2 experiments, participants learned the relationship between data and possible causes of the data in a virtual environment. Data were then presented iteratively, and participants either generated hypotheses they thought caused the data or rated the probability of possible causes of the data. In a 3rd experiment, participants generated hypotheses and made probability judgments on the basis of previously stored general knowledge. Findings suggest that both the hypotheses one generates and the judged probability of those hypotheses are heavily influenced by the most recent evidence observed and by the diagnosticity of the evidence. Specifically, participants generated a narrow set of possible explanations when the presented evidence was diagnostic compared with when it was nondiagnostic, suggesting that nondiagnostic evidence entices participants to cast a wider net when generating hypotheses.     

Testing the degree of cross-sectional and longitudinal dependence between two discrete dynamic processes

Developmental research often involves studying change across 2 or more processes or constructs simultaneously. A natural question in this work is whether change in these 2 processes is related or independent. Associative latent transition analysis (ALTA) was designed to test hypotheses about the degree to which change in 2 discrete latent variables is related. The ALTA model is a type of latent class model, which is a categorical latent variable model based on categorical indicators. In the ALTA approach, level and change on 1 variable is predicted by level and change in another. Two types of hypotheses are discussed: (a) broad hypotheses of dependence between the 2 discrete latent variables and (b) targeted hypotheses comparing specific patterns of change between levels of the discrete variables. Both types of hypotheses are tested via nested model comparisons. Analyses of relations between psychological state and substance use illustrate the model. Recent psychological state and recent substance use were found to be associated cross-sectionally and longitudinally, implying that change in recent substance use was related to change in recent psychological state.     

Evaluation of evidence for sufficiency, for necessity, and for necessity-and-sufficiency

We report two experiments with 120 undergraduate subjects. The tasks presented clearly articulated hypotheses concerning necessity, sufficiency, and necessity-and-sufficiency, together with possible combinations of treatment conditions, and required subjects to judge whether, according to the hypotheses, the relevant outcomes will occur, will not occur, or might occur. The patterns of responses reveal how subjects understand the extensions of the concepts, i.e. what each hypothesis permits, requires, and excludes. Only necessity-and-sufficiency hypotheses generally led to logically adequate responses, and the most typical error for both necessity hypotheses and sufficiency hypotheses was to treat them as extensionally equivalent to necessity-and-sufficiency. This error tendency was more evident for necessity than for sufficiency hypotheses. Further, although responses to both necessity hypotheses and sufficiency hypotheses were affected by the complexity of the hypothesized conditions, responses to necessity-and-sufficiency hypotheses were not. We argue that the results are not a function of a response bias but reflect differences in the way the hypotheses are understood. Implications for the causal attribution literature are discussed.     

Evidence of construct validity of the interest scales on the Campbell Interest and Skill Survey

This study explored evidence of the construct validity of the interest scales on the Campbell Interest and Skill Survey (CISS; Campbell, Hyne, & Nilsen, 1992) by testing evidence for convergent validity with the Strong Interest Inventory (SII; Hansen & Campbell, 1985). Two hypotheses were formulated. First, matching CISS and SII scales were expected to be more positively correlated compared to non-matching scales. Second, Holland's hexagonal calculus assumption (Holland, 1973) was expected to emerge in the pattern of intercorrelations among CISS and SII scales. These hypotheses were tested using correlational and factor analyses. Results supported the hypotheses and demonstrated evidence of good convergent and construct validity for scores on the CISS interest scales. Implications for the use of the CISS in counseling and for research on Holland's theory are discussed, and directions for future research are presented.     

New aspects of the probabilistic evaluation of hypotheses and experience

The probabilistic corroboration of two or more hypotheses or series of observations may be performed additively or multiplicatively . For additive corroboration (e.g. by Laplace's rule of succession), stochastic independence is needed. Inferences, based on overwhelming numbers of observations without unexplained counterinstances permit hyperinduction , whereby extremely high probabilities, bordering on certainty for all practical purposes may be achieved. For multiplicative corroboration, the error probabilities (1 - Pr) of two (or more) hypotheses are multiplied. The probabilities, obtained by reconverting the product, are valid for both of the hypotheses and indicate the gain by corroboration.. This method is mathematically correct, no probabilities > 1 can result (as in some conventional methods) and high probabilities with fewer observations may be obtained, however, semantical independence is a prerequisite. The combined method consists of (1) the additive computation of the error probabilities (1 - Pr) of two or more single hypotheses, whereby arbitrariness is avoided or at least reduced and (2) the multiplicative procedure . The high reliability of Empirical Counterfactual Statements is explained by the possibility of multiplicative corroboration of “all-no” statements due to their strict semantical independence.     

Supervisor support in the work place: legitimacy and positive affectivity

The authors tested 3 hypotheses regarding supervisor support in the work place. The validation hypothesis predicts that when employees are supported by their coworkers and the larger organization, they also receive more support from their supervisors. The positive affectivity hypothesis predicts that employees with positive dispositions receive more supervisor support because they are more socially oriented and likable. The moderation hypothesis predicts a joint multiplicative effect between validation and positive affectivity. An assessment of the hypotheses among a sample of 1,882 hospital employees in Korea provided strong support for the validation and moderation hypotheses.     

Non-empirical and empirical components in the hypotheses of five social psychological experiments

Five studies published in the Journal of Experimental Social Psychology and selected without advance knowledge of their contents, were analyzed with respect to the epistemic and modal status of their hypotheses. It was found that the general hypotheses were a priori and noncontingent (necessarily true), whereas the local auxiliary hypotheses were empirical and contingent. Hence, the data were only relevant for the latter. It is conjectured that such pseudoempirical studies may abound in contemporary psychology. They remain undiscovered because researchers unreflectively believe that all propositions that can be related to data are empirical and that psychological terms need not be defined. Only when terms are defined and presuppositions (axioms) are stated, can one determine the epistemic and modal status of a given proposition, and, hence, whether or not a study is pseudoempirical.     

Under the skin: On the impartial treatment of genetic and environmental hypotheses of racial differences

Environmental and genetic explanations have been given for Black-White racial differences in intelligence and other traits. In science, viable, alternative hypotheses are ideally given equal Bayesian prior weights; but this has not been true in the study of racial differences. This article advocates testing environmental and genetic hypotheses of racial differences as competing hypotheses. Two methods are described: (a) fitting means within structural equation models and (b) predicting means of interracial children. These methods have limitations that call for improved research designs of racial differences. One improvement capitalizes on biotechnology. Genetic admixture estimates--the percentage of genes of European origin that a Black individual possesses (independent of genes related to skin coloration)--can represent genetic influences. The study of interracial children can be improved by increasing sample size and by choosing family members who are most informative for a research question. Eventually, individual-admixture estimates will be replaced by molecular genetic tests of alleles of those genes that influence traits.     

Hypothetico-nomological aspects of medical diagnosis Part I: General structure of the diagnostic process and its hypothesis-directed stage

In medical diagnostic examination three main stages may be distinguished: (a) initial exploration, (b) hypothesis-directed investigation, and (c) final diagnosis making. The purpose of this work is to study some methodological problems concerning the second of the above stages of the diagnosis and to prepare a background for a mathematical model [30] of this process. In diagnostic problem solving, the reasoning proceeds along the main lines traced by some initial suggestions and passes through various intermediate elements which are connected with one another forming ramifying chains and nets of inferences and hypotheses. Such a complex mental construction is based on laws which form medical knowledge and reflect various regularities and relations, causal, structural, functional, and others. The main components of diagnostic reasoning may be divided into several classes according to their function and content: leading hypotheses, working hypotheses, main diagnostic hypotheses, statements accepted as certain, intermediary and reserve hypotheses, therapeutic suggestions of immediate consequence. In an example of diagnostic problem solving these types of propositions are defined and analysed. In diagnostic reasoning, as in every other process of rational problem solving, explanation of the observed symptoms and signs and testing of the explaining hypotheses play a predominant role. These procedures form successive, frequently numerous and diversified steps and stages of the reasoning, leading to the construction of a mental model of the patient's state. Some problems relative to the scheme of explanation, especially to that which is based on causal laws, are discussed.     

Supervisor Support in the Work Place: Legitimacy and Positive Affectivity

Abstract

The authors tested 3 hypotheses regarding supervisor support in the work place. The validation hypothesis predicts that when employees are supported by their coworkers and the larger organization, they also receive more support from their supervisors. The positive affectivity hypothesis predicts that employees with positive dispositions receive more supervisor support because they are more socially oriented and likable. The moderation hypothesis predicts a joint multiplicative effect between validation and positive affectivity. An assessment of the hypotheses among a sample of 1,882 hospital employees in Korea provided strong support for the validation and moderation hypotheses.     

Event knowledge,elaborative propensity,and the development of learning proficiency

An experimental test was made of two hypotheses formulated to account for age differences across adolescence in the learning of arbitrary associations. One hypothesis ascribes such differences to two factors: the propensity to elaborate coherent relationships among initially disparate items, and accessibility to event knowledge that can form the bases of such relationships. The other hypothesis assumes that propensity remains constant across age, and that development stems entirely from increases in the accessibility of relevant event knowledge. These hypotheses are evaluated with reference to the performance of 11- and 17-year-olds in learning relationships among paired nouns. The results discredited both hypotheses, instigating the formulation of a revised conception of the relationship between knowledge and propensity as developmental determinants.     

Rattling the cage and opening the door

I share with Poulin‐Dubois and with Sabbagh, Koenig and Kuhlmeier the conviction that more research is needed on the mechanisms supporting selective social learning in infants and children. However, my plea is more specific: for research that tests domain‐specific hypotheses about mechanism against domain‐general hypotheses derived from other fields of cognitive science. Many, but not all, of these alternative hypotheses relate to domain‐general mechanisms of attention.     

Comment on “Theoretical risks and tabular asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the slow progress of soft psychology”

A serious problem with Popperian falsificationism in the presence of auxiliary hypotheses and experimental conditions, in addition to a theory under test, is raised by Meehl. In brief, a negative result endangers both the theory in question, and the auxiliary hypotheses; which should we reject? I discuss how considering series of studies, rather than a single study, helps make this problem somewhat more tractable. I treat situations where negative results are in hand, as well as situations where positive results may be discounted by skeptics who question auxiliary hypotheses.     

Animal Mindreading and the Principle of Conservatism

Skeptics about nonlinguistic mindreading often use an inferential rule of thumb—the principle of conservatism—to cast doubt on purported empirical evidence of mindreading abilities in nonlinguistic creatures. This principle, if warranted, would seem to count generally against explanatory hypotheses that posit nonlinguistic mindreading, instead favoring mere behavior‐reading hypotheses. Using a test case from research with chimpanzees, I show that this principle is best understood as an appeal to parsimony; that, regardless of how one conceives of parsimony, the principle is unwarranted; and that, once we put the principle aside, the prospects for nonlinguistic mindreading are brighter than traditionally thought.     

Fight the power: the limits of empiricism and the costs of positivistic rigor

A summary of the influence of positivistic philosophy and empiricism on the field of psychology is followed by a critique of the empirical method. The dialectic process is advocated as an alternative method of inquiry. The main advantage of the dialectic method is that it is open to any logical argument, including empirical hypotheses, but unlike empiricism, it does not automatically reject arguments that are not based on observable data. Evolutionary and moral psychology are discussed as examples of important fields of study that could benefit from types of arguments that frequently do not conform to the empirical standards of systematic observation and falsifiability of hypotheses. A dialectic method is shown to be a suitable perspective for those fields of research, because it allows for logical arguments that are not empirical and because it fosters a functionalist perspective, which is indispensable for both evolutionary and moral theories. It is suggested that all psychologists may gain from adopting a dialectic approach, rather than restricting themselves to empirical arguments alone.     

Epistemic and Dialectical Models of Begging the Question

This paper addresses the problem posed by the current split between the two opposed hypotheses in the growing literature on the fallacy of begging the question the epistemic hypothesis, based on knowledge and belief, and the dialectical one, based on formal dialogue systems. In the first section, the nature of split is explained, and it is shown how each hypothesis has developed. To get the beginning reader up to speed in the literature, a number of key problematic examples are analyzed illustrating how both approaches can be applied. Useful tools are brought to bear on them, including the automated argument diagramming system Araucaria, and profiles of dialogue used to represent circular argumentation in a dialogue tableau format. These tools are used to both to model circular reasoning and to provide the contextual evidence needed to properly determine whether the circular reasoning in a given case is better judged fallacious or not. A number of technical problems that have impeded the development of both hypotheses are studied. One central problem is the distinction between argument and explanation. It is concluded that the best way to move forward and solve these problems is to reformulate the two hypotheses in such a way that they might be able to co-exist. On this basis, a unified methodology is proposed that allows each hypothesis to move forward as a legitimate avenue for research using the same tools.     

Organisation and evocation of the semantic knowledge: a non-abstractive approach

The majority of the models which attempt to explain category-specific deficits are based on the assumption that the conceptual knowledge is represented in a permanent way in memory (abstractive view). showed that a non-abstractive view would be more suitable to account for some of these cases. The present study aims to assess the hypotheses on the meaning evocation process as formulated by these authors, using a property verification task conducted on healthy subjects. The data were in agreement with these hypotheses and would be more hardly accounted in the frame of the abstractive view.