Future‐focussed thinking: combining scenario planning with decision analysis

This paper first describes current practice in decision analysis and argues that nothing in the technique's application is likely to challenge the strategic decision maker's current worldview of the course of future events that are modelled in the decision tree. By contrast, a scenario planning intervention in an organization has the potential to increase perceived threat and thus lead to a step change in strategic decision making. Strategic decisions are made against a backcloth of the operation of psychological processes that act, it is argued, to reduce the perceived level of environmental threat and result in strategic inertia. For this reason, it is recommended that scenario planning should be adopted as a standard procedure because of its ability to challenge individual and organizational worldviews. The use of scenario planning prior to conventional decision analysis is termed as ‘future‐focussed thinking’, and parallels are drawn between the current advocated approach and that of Keeney's value‐focussed thinking. Both serve to prompt the creation of enhanced options for subsequent evaluation by conventional decision analytic techniques. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Small‐unit water purifiers for remote military outposts: A new application of multicriteria decision analysis

During the U.S. military's first 145 years, waterborne and other infectious diseases caused more casualties than battlefield injuries, underscoring the importance of clean drinking water to military success. Ensuring drinking water safety poses special challenges to the U.S. Army Special Operations Forces, because treatment equipment used in the conventional Army is too heavy and operationally complex to deploy to remote outposts. Due to the lack of purpose‐built water purifiers, Special Forces often rely on commercial‐off‐the‐shelf systems, but guidelines on selecting optimal systems for specific deployment contexts are lacking. To fill this gap, this research examines whether multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) can provide an operational framework for selecting water purifiers for Special Forces. Our objectives are to apply MCDA to help an officer preparing for village stability operations in Afghanistan select a water purifier and to assess whether other Army stakeholders agree with the officer's choice. In addition, because previous research has suggested that alternative MCDA methods can yield different rankings of decision alternatives, we test whether the MCDA method used is as important as who conducts the ranking. Toward these objectives, we use 4 MCDA approaches for eliciting preferences among 4 water purifiers from the deploying officer and 6 other Army stakeholders. The results show that regardless of method, the officer and 5 of the 6 stakeholders identified the same preferred alternative, although rankings for the less preferred water purifiers varied by method (intermethod rank‐order correlation = .57). In responses to survey questions, stakeholders indicated that they would support using the results to support decisions about water purifier acquisition (average support = 5.3 on a 0–6 Likert scale with 6 indicating strongest support).     

A multidimensional framework for financial–economic decisions

Most financial–economic decisions are made consciously, with a clear and constant drive to ‘good’, ‘better’ or even ‘optimal’ decisions. Nevertheless, many decisions in practice do not earn these qualifications, despite the availability of financial economic theory, decision sciences and ample resources. We plea for the development of a multidimensional framework to support financial economic decision processes. Our aim is to achieve a better integration of available theory and decision technologies. We sketch (a) what the framework should look like, (b) what elements of the framework already exist and which not, and (c) how the MCDA community can co‐operate in its development. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Participatory and multiobjective development of watercourse regulation—creation of regulation alternatives from stakeholders' preferences

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have been recently applied in many environmental problems. Major aims have been to structure and to analyse multifaceted and complex problems, to compare incommensurable impacts and to clarify the preference order of alternatives. Most MCDA tools concentrate on aiding the process of choice among alternatives. The choice usually occurs at the end of the decision‐making process, but MCDA tools can also assist earlier in the process. In this article, we present a new MCDA‐based method in order to create watercourse regulation alternatives, which meet the objectives of stakeholders. The method is comprised of three elements: (1) framework for the planning and learning process partly based on the Image Theory, (2) analysis and evaluation of ecological, social and economic impacts of regulation, and (3) visual interactive Excel implementation of value‐tree analysis (REGAIM‐model). We show how the method was applied in a complex watercourse regulation development project in Finland. Altogether 36 face‐to‐face computer‐aided interviews were undertaken with the REGAIM model with representatives of different stakeholder groups. We present the main results of the interviews and discuss how these interviews supported generation of new watercourse regulation alternatives. We also describe the advantages of the new approach in the participatory watercourse management, and discuss the applicability of Image Theory in the watercourse regulation context. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Planning a reader-oriented strategy for a publishing company: a case study

Scientific research in the sector of press readability and specifically magazines is not particularly extensive. This paper suggests a framework for the development of strategic decisions based on reader satisfaction measurements. The methodology is illustrated through a real-world application, i.e. customer-oriented strategy planning for the leading monthly IT magazine in Greece. This study implements the MUSA (Multicriteria Satisfaction Analysis) method to evaluate reader satisfaction, in order to support the editor in making decisions while planning his editorial strategy. Reader satisfaction was analysed based on a tree containing seven main criteria and 32 sub-criteria. Readers proved to be very satisfied and non-demanding, which results in narrower margins for efficient improvement suggestions. However, the evaluation of the MUSA results led to putting forward suggestions that could support the editor in making amendment decisions. Some of these suggestions were successfully implemented within the scope of a new strategy. This revealed the need for two separate editions, an IT magazine for pupils and students as well as an IT magazine focused on women. The decision maker received suggestions on what these new publications' features should be, deriving from the study's quantitative results. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Approach to Multi‐Criteria Decision Problems Under Severe Uncertainty

Solving complex decision problems is a demanding task; it requires determining and evaluating the consequences of decision alternatives. To this end, uncertain factors that can only partly be influenced by the decision makers, and their interdependencies need to be considered. Scenarios focus on this part of the decision problem; they enable a systematic exploration of a multitude of possible future developments that are relevant for the decision including external events and decisions made. Scenarios are particularly useful when the problem is pervaded by severe uncertainties that cannot be quantified. For the evaluation of alternatives, multiple objectives and the potentially diverging preferences of the involved actors need to be respected. Multi‐criteria decision analysis aims at structuring the problem, evaluating the alternatives and supporting decision makers pursuing multiple goals. We propose an approach integrating scenarios and multi‐criteria decision analysis that focuses on the robustness of alternatives in complex, dynamic, uncertain and time‐bound situations. In this integrated framework, the scenarios provide the basis for evaluating a set of alternatives. Ideally, the set of scenarios considered captures all possible future developments. To appropriately explore this set, formal or analytical approaches to scenario construction generate a large number of scenarios. This challenges the decision makers' information‐processing capacity. To support them in managing the richness of information, a two‐fold approach that uses selection and aggregation is presented. By using a selection method, the scenarios that are deemed most relevant are identified, and their evaluations are presented in detail to decision makers. This approach is complemented by an aggregation of scenario evaluations on the basis of the decision makers' preferences. We present two approaches to facilitate the preference elicitation process. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision Support System and Multi‐Criteria Decision Aid: A State of the Art and Perspectives

The aim of this paper is to highlight the role of the Decision Support System within the field of multi‐criteria decision aid (MCDA). The MCDA tools have been incorporated into systems to create Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems (MCDSSs). In our literature review, we noticed that more than 100 papers have been written over a 20‐year period in which MCDSS was used as a decision‐making tool. The present paper describes some real applications of MCDSS in different fields, harmoniously combined with decision‐making methods such as analytic hierarchy process, Utility Additive, and Goal Programming. The present study proposes an integrative MCDSS evaluation through guidance on the tools most useful for a specific user with a particular decision problem. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cooperation Versus Competition Effects on Information Sharing and Use in Group Decision‐Making

Information processing in groups has long been seen as a cooperative process. In contrast with this assumption, group members were rarely found to behave cooperatively: They withhold unshared information and stick to initial incorrect decisions. In the present article, we examined how group members' cooperative and competitive motives impact on group information processing and propose that information sharing and use in groups could be seen as strategic behavior. We reviewed the latest developments in the literature investigating different forms of strategic information processing and their underlying mechanisms. This review suggests that explicit cooperative goals are needed for effective group decision‐making.     

Euclid: Strategic alternative assessment matrix

The vast amount of information that must be considered to solve inherently ill‐structured and complex strategic problems creates a need for tools to help decision makers (DMs) recognize the complexity of this process and develop a rational model for strategy evaluation. Over the last several decades, a philosophy and a body of intuitive and analytical methods have been developed to assist DMs in the evaluation of strategic alternatives. However, the intuitive methods lack a structured framework for the systematic evaluation of strategic alternatives while the analytical methods are not intended to capture intuitive preferences. Euclid is a simple and yet sophisticated multiobjective value analysis model that attempts to uncover some of the complexities inherent in the evaluation of strategic alternatives. The proposed model uses a series of intuitive and analytical methods including environmental scanning, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, and the theory of displaced ideal, to plot strategic alternatives on a matrix based on their Euclidean distance from the ideal alternative. Euclid is further compared to the quantitative strategic planning matrix (QSPM) in a real world application. The information provided by the users shows that Euclid can significantly enhance decision quality and the DM's confidence. Euclid is not intended to replace the DMs, rather, it provides a systematic approach to support, supplement, and ensure the internal consistency of their judgments through a series of logically sound techniques. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Working Hard to Take the Easy Way Out: How the Need for Cognitive Closure Shapes Strategic Effort Investment to Ease Future Decision Making

Consumers make countless decisions each day that force them to determine the amount of effort they are willing to invest into the decision process. Due to their desire for immediate resolution and propensity to seize upon available options, individuals high in the need for cognitive closure make decisions that are traditionally associated with reduced effort investment. Counter to this traditional perspective, this research demonstrates that those seeking closure strategically invest effort into the decision process, so long as the initial effort investment is expected to simplify similar decisions in the future. Three experiments demonstrate that those motivated by closure put forth greater effort when they expect to repeat the decision (Experiment 1) and in contexts where a justifiable choice option is not readily available (Experiment 2). Furthermore, this effort investment is shown to payoff in terms of streamlining subsequent decision making (Experiment 3). These findings detail the strategic use of effort by those seeking closure to ease future decision making and thus provide a conceptual framework for when and why those seeking closure allocate effort in decision making.     

Memories of real-life decisions

Three studies investigated decision makers’ memory representations of choice alternatives in most important real-life decisions. In Study 1, each participant recalled the most important decision that she or he had ever made and rated to what degree a number of characteristics could describe the decisions. In Study 2, the participants were asked to think about an important decision that they had made during the last 7–10 days. In Study 3, the memory representations of decisions of a group of action-oriented participants were compared with those of a group of state-oriented participants (Kuhl, 1983). Characteristics related to standard decision theory, like consequences, values, and likelihood, had high ratings of applicability as well as affect/feeling. When testing the applicability of a circumplex model, the fuzzy-trace theory of memory, and differences between state- and action-oriented decision makers, we found (1) that there was no support for the circumplex model of emotions. Instead, an important decision problem was characterised by both positive and negative affect/emotion and thus, a bipolar mapping was found inadequate; (2) that a comparison of abstract and concrete aspects showed that the abstract characteristics scored higher, thereby supporting the fuzzy-trace theory; and (3) that the prediction that action-oriented participants would score higher than state-oriented participants on the characteristic of activity was not supported. However, state-oriented decision makers rated passivity higher than action-oriented decision makers for the important decision of leaving a partner. State-oriented decision makers used perceptual/cognitive scenario representations to a greater extent than action-oriented participants. Finally, it was stressed that in the development of decision theories it is essential to find theoretical representations as close as possible to how decision makers themselves represent the decisions. The method used in this contribution is focused on the role of memory in decision making and gives further insights into how important real-life decisions are represented by different decision makers.     

Mindsets,rationality and emotion in Multi‐criteria Decision Analysis

This paper discusses the paradigm of multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA), and relates it to other disciplines. It concludes that MCDA needs a larger, not smaller, emphasis on values and subjectivity to increase rationality in decision‐making. The paper bases the argument on a conciliation of ethics, philosophy, neuro‐psychology and management paradigms. It observes that the MCDA ‘mindset’ relates to consequentialism, as opposed to virtue ethics and rule based ethics. Virtues and rules play an important role in practical decision‐making, however. Findings in neuro‐psychology show that reliable decision‐making requires emotions. Elicitation of emotions is therefore required in MCDA value trade‐off processes. This leads to a concept of emotional rationality, which defines rationality as a four‐dimensional concept that includes well‐founded values and breaks radically with common notions of rationality. Virtues do not easily lend themselves to value trade‐off, but questions of virtue usually creates strong social emotions, as opposed to the feebler global emotions that may arise in connection conventional trade‐off of end values. The conclusion is that MCDA should not be shy of subjectivity and emotion, but instead put more emphasis on it to increase rationality. A part of this challenge is how to deal with questions of virtue in decision‐making. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Memories of real-life decisions

Three studies investigated decision makers' memory representations of choice alternatives in most important real-life decisions. In Study 1, each participant recalled the most important decision that she or he had ever made and rated to what degree a number of characteristics could describe the decisions. In Study 2, the participants were asked to think about an important decision that they had made during the last 7-10 days. In Study 3, the memory representations of decisions of a group of action-oriented participants were compared with those of a group of state-oriented participants (Kuhl, 1983). Characteristics related to standard decision theory, like consequences, values, and likelihood, had high ratings of applicability as well as affect/feeling. When testing the applicability of a circumplex model, the fuzzy-trace theory of memory, and differences between state- and action-oriented decision makers, we found (1) that there was no support for the circumplex model of emotions. Instead, an important decision problem was characterised by both positive and negative affect/emotion and thus, a bipolar mapping was found inadequate; (2) that a comparison of abstract and concrete aspects showed that the abstract characteristics scored higher, thereby supporting the fuzzy-trace theory; and (3) that the prediction that action-oriented participants would score higher than state-oriented participants on the characteristic of activity was not supported. However, state-oriented decision makers rated passivity higher than action-oriented decision makers for the important decision of leaving a partner. State-oriented decision makers used perceptual/cognitive scenario representations to a greater extent than action-oriented participants. Finally, it was stressed that in the development of decision theories it is essential to find theoretical representations as close as possible to how decision makers themselves represent the decisions. The method used in this contribution is focused on the role of memory in decision making and gives further insights into how important real-life decisions are represented by different decision makers.     

How effortful decisions get enacted: the motivating role of decision processes,desires, and anticipated emotions

Building on recent research examining the influence of decision making on subsequent goal striving and decision enactment, we consider and elaborate on the mechanisms through which effortful decisions are made, maintained, and enacted. Our proposed framework builds on the Dholakia and Bagozzi ( 2002 ) model, distinguishes between two important types of intentions and desires, and shows that the motivation‐mustering function of the decision process is mediated by goal and implementation desires. In addition to decision processes, the roles of goal feasibility, anticipated emotions, attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control are also elaborated on. Through a two‐wave field study tracking real decisions and their pursuit by participants, we find empirical support for our model of effortful decision making and enactment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An introduction to the Priority‐Pointing Procedure

A qualitative research‐based diagnostic procedure, the Priority‐Pointing Procedure (PPP), is proposed that synthesizes responses to open‐ended questions about the direction an organization should take. It points to a priority for action by measuring imbalances in the numbers of responses in the context of the structure of adjustment decision‐making from nomology. It is shown to be useful for defining variables and structuring criteria for strategic Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) problems. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Leaders' Perceptions and Nuclear Proliferation: A Political Psychology Approach to Proliferation

Contributing to an emerging scholarship emphasizing ideational approaches for understanding nuclear proliferation, this work offers a new analytical framework focusing on leaders' perceptions about the international system and how their “perceived strategic context” may influence the decision of “going nuclear.” Rather than being an inevitable occurrence driven by abstract systemic factors, like the security dilemma, this actor‐specific, ideational approach offers a narrative depicting the fundamental role played by policy makers' perceptions about the international environment in which their proliferation decisions are made. Utilizing operational code analysis, leaders' unique perceived strategic contexts are identified and expectant strategies for self and other analyzed by using the theory of moves sequential game construct. Initial testing of the framework is performed by examining the debated nuclear proliferation cases of South Africa and India. The results highlight the important role of individuals' views concerning the strategic environment they inhabit when weighing proliferation decisions.     

The Path of Least Resistance: Using Easy-to-Access Information

Abstract— Recent work on judgment and decision making has focused on how people preferentially use cues, or pieces of relevant information, that are easy to access when making decisions. In this article, we discuss a framework for understanding the ways that cues become accessible. We begin by identifying two components of cues and show how these components can become accessible during different parts a decision process. We highlight evidence for the use of accessible information and discuss implications for future research on heuristics.     

The role of impulses in shaping decisions

This paper explores the extent to which decision behavior is shaped by short‐lived reactions to the outcome of the most recent decision. We inspected repeated decision‐making behavior in two versions of each of two decision‐making tasks, an individual task and a strategic one. By regressing behavior onto the outcomes of recent decisions, we found that the upcoming decision was well predicted by the most recent outcome alone, with the tendency to repeat a previous action being affected both by its actual outcome and by the outcomes of actions not taken. Because the goodness of predictions based on the most recent outcome did not diminish as participants gained experience with the task, we conclude that repeated decisions are continuously affected by impulsive reactions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision Pattern Analysis as a General Framework for Studying Individual Differences in Decision Making

This paper investigated decision pattern analysis (DPA) as a general and standard framework for studying individuals' consistent decision making behavior within and between contexts. DPA classifies decisions on the basis of judgement accuracy and the goal orientation of the decided‐upon action. Over repeated decisions, patterns of individuals' decision behavior are described by five variables: competence, optimality, recklessness, hesitancy and decisiveness. A fictitious medical decision making test and three standard cognitive ability tests (extended with confidence ratings and a ‘submit answer for marking’ decision) were used to investigate the psychometric properties of these DPA variables. Internal consistency of the decision patterns ranged from good to excellent. Convergent validity was assessed via cognitive abilities, metacognitive confidence and a control criterion imposed on confidence that determines the decision to be made: the point of sufficient certainty. Personality variables were included to assess discriminant validity. As hypothesised, cognitive abilities showed positive correlations with competence and optimality. High confidence, low points of sufficient certainty and a greater discrepancy between them were associated with higher decisiveness and recklessness, and lower hesitancy. Personality measures showed mixed and generally weak correlations with the DPA variables. These convergent and discriminant results also held after controlling for all variables in regression. The results provide preliminary psychometric support for DPA as a general framework of behavioral decision making. DPA has the potential to be exploited in many contexts for uses that, to date, have been unachievable in a psychometrically valid manner. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Computer‐based systems and organizational decision making: An architecture to support organizational innovation

Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been developed to support the computational, judgmental, and negotiation decisions typically encountered by organizational decision makers. Software for generating ideas has also become available. However, these systems typically operate on the individual or small group level, not on the broader organizational level. Also, their focus is usually on the decision‐making process while neglecting the product. This article first develops a framework relating decision types to current DSS. It then proposes an architecture for integrating these component systems to support innovation at an organizational level and to support assessment of the creative product as well as the process.