The role of cognitive resources in the valuation of near and far future events

People's behaviors often appear short-sighted, suggesting they overvalue the near future and undervalue the far future. In three experiments, the present research focussed on the role of cognitive resources in the valuation of near and distant future events. Experiment 1 tested a new discounting paradigm for use in the subsequent experiments. Experiments 2 and 3 used different manipulations (time pressure and a concurrent tone task) to restrict the cognitive resources of participants valuing a series of future events. In both experiments, this manipulation caused an increase in the valuation of far future events but not in the valuations of near future events. Implications of these findings for the role of cognitive resources in time discounting processes are briefly discussed.     

负折扣现象:跨期决策中的自我-他人决策差异

负折扣现象作为一种违背时间折扣假定的现象越来越多地引起研究者关注。本文通过两种指标考察了为自己决策和为他人决策在负折扣现象上的差异。实验1运用二择一选择范式考察人们在为自己决策和为他人决策时对于何时发生负性事件的时间偏好。结果发现,相比较于为他人决策,为自己决策时被试更倾向于选择早些发生负性事件,即更容易产生负折扣现象。实验2运用测量时间折扣率的经典范式考察了人们在为自己决策和为他人决策时的时间折扣率。结果发现,为自己决策时比为他人决策时的时间折扣率更小,更容易出现负折扣率。总体结果表明,为自己决策比为他人决策更容易出现负折扣现象。从情绪卷入的角度看,我们推测,为自己决策时由于更多的预期负性情绪卷入,从而导致更容易产生负折扣现象。     

Imagining the future: degraded representations of future rewards and events in schizophrenia

Over the course of life, most people work toward temporally distant rewards such as university degrees or work-related promotions. In contrast, many people with schizophrenia show deficits in behavior oriented toward long-term rewards, although they function adequately when rewards are more immediately present. Moreover, when asked about possible future events, individuals with schizophrenia show foreshortened future time perspectives relative to healthy individuals. Here, we take the view that these deficits are related and can be explained by cognitive deficits. We compared the performance of participants with schizophrenia (n = 39) and healthy participants (n = 25) on tasks measuring reward discounting and future event representations. Consistent with previous research, we found that relative to healthy participants, those with schizophrenia discounted the value of future rewards more steeply. Furthermore, when asked about future events, their responses were biased toward events in the near future, relative to healthy participants' responses. Although discounting and future representations were unrelated in healthy participants, we found significant correlations across the tasks among participants with schizophrenia, as well as correlations with cognitive variables and symptoms. Further analysis showed that statistically controlling working memory eliminated group differences in task performance. Together these results suggest that the motivational deficits characteristic of schizophrenia relate to cognitive deficits affecting the ability to represent and/or evaluate distant outcomes, a finding with important implications for promoting recovery from schizophrenia.     

Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. As a consequence, people tend to think that they are more likely than the average person to experience common events and less likely than the average person to experience rare events. This causes unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events, but unrealistic pessimism in the case of rare desirable events and common undesirable events (Studies 1 and 2). Study 2 further suggests that both egocentrism and focalism underlie these biases. These results suggest that unrealistic optimism is not as ubiquitous as once thought.     

A wrinkle in time: asymmetric valuation of past and future events

ABSTRACT— A series of studies shows that people value future events more than equivalent events in the equidistant past. Whether people imagined being compensated or compensating others, they required and offered more compensation for events that would take place in the future than for identical events that had taken place in the past. This temporal value asymmetry (TVA) was robust in between-persons comparisons and absent in within-persons comparisons, which suggests that participants considered the TVA irrational. Contemplating future events produced greater affect than did contemplating past events, and this difference mediated the TVA. We suggest that the TVA, the gain-loss asymmetry, and hyperbolic time discounting can be unified in a three-dimensional value function that describes how people value gains and losses of different magnitudes at different moments in time.     

Focalism: a source of durability bias in affective forecasting

The durability bias, the tendency to overpredict the duration of affective reactions to future events, may be due in part to focalism, whereby people focus too much on the event in question and not enough on the consequences of other future events. If so, asking people to think about other future activities should reduce the durability bias. In Studies 1-3, college football fans were less likely to overpredict how long the outcome of a football game would influence their happiness if they first thought about how much time they would spend on other future activities. Studies 4 and 5 ruled out alternative explanations and found evidence for a distraction interpretation, that people who think about future events moderate their forecasts because they believe that these events will reduce thinking about the focal event. The authors discuss the implications of focalism for other literatures, such as the planning fallacy.     

愤怒情绪对延迟折扣的影响：确定感和控制感的中介作用

本研究基于评估倾向理论, 通过3项实验考察了特定负性情绪(愤怒)对延迟折扣的影响, 并探究确定感和控制感评估倾向在这一关系中的作用。实验1考察愤怒情绪对延迟折扣的影响, 结果发现, 愤怒组被试的延迟满足倾向显著强于恐惧组和控制组。实验2采用实验因果链设计考察确定感和控制感评估倾向在愤怒情绪影响个体延迟折扣中的作用, 结果发现, 愤怒情绪可以有效增强个体的确定感和控制感(实验2a), 同时确定感和控制感能够增强个体的延迟满足倾向(实验2b)。实验3采用中介测量设计考察确定感和控制感评估倾向在愤怒情绪影响个体延迟折扣中的作用, 结果发现, 确定感和控制感评估倾向在愤怒情绪影响个体延迟折扣中起完全中介作用。本研究结果表明, 当个体进行跨期决策时, 体验到与确定感和控制感有关的偶然愤怒情绪会增强其延迟满足倾向。本研究对探究特定负性情绪对个体延迟折扣的影响具有一定的启示意义。     

On the representational systems underlying prospection: Evidence from the event-cueing paradigm

The ability to think about the future-prospection-is central to many aspects of human cognition and behavior, from planning and decision making, to self-control and the construction of a sense of identity. Yet, the exact nature of the representational systems underlying prospection is not fully understood. Recent findings point to the critical role of episodic memory in imagining specific future events, but it is unlikely that prospection depends solely on this system. Using an event-cueing paradigm in two studies, we here show that specific events that people imagine might happen in their personal future are commonly embedded in broader event sequences-termed event clusters-that link a set of envisioned events according to causal and thematic relations. These findings provide novel evidence that prospection relies on multiple representational systems, with general autobiographical knowledge structures providing a frame that organizes imagined events in overarching event sequences. The results further suggest that knowledge about personal goals plays an important role in structuring these event sequences, especially for the distant future.     

The least likely of times: how remembering the past biases forecasts of the future

Atypical events are both memorable and unrepresentative of their class. We tested the hypotheses that (a) people tend to recall atypical instances of events, and (b) when they are unaware of this, they rely on these atypical instances in forecasting their affective reactions to future events. In three studies, participants who were asked to recall an instance of an event and participants who were asked to recall an atypical instance of an event recalled equally atypical instances. However, only the former participants made extreme forecasts about their reactions to future events. The results suggest that the impact bias (the tendency to overestimate the affective impact of future events) may be due in part to people's reliance on highly available but unrepresentative memories of the past.     

If I imagine it,then it happened: The Implicit Truth Value of imaginary representations

Imagination sometimes leads people to behave, feel, and think as though imagined events were real even when they know they were not. In this paper, we suggest that some understanding of these phenomena can be achieved by differentiating between Implicit Truth Value (ITV), a spontaneous truth evaluation, and Explicit Truth Value (ETV), a self-reported truth judgment. In three experiments, we measure ITV using the autobiographical Implicit Association Test (Sartori, Agosta, Zogmaister, Ferrara, & Castiello, 2008), which has been used to assess which of two autobiographical events is true. Our findings demonstrate that imagining an event, like experiencing an event, increases its ITV, even when people explicitly acknowledge the imagined event as false (Experiments 1a and 1b). Furthermore, we show that imagined representations generated from a first-person perspective have higher ITV than imagined representations generated from a third-person perspective (Experiment 2). Our findings suggest that implicit and explicit measures of truth differ in their sensitivity to properties underlying truth judgment. We discuss the contribution of characterizing events according to both ITV and ETV to the understanding of various psychological phenomena, such as lying and self-deception.     

Changes in intertemporal choices in deviant behaviors

Delay discounting is the process of devaluing results that happen in the future. We present a comprehensive literature review of changes on intertemporal choices in deviant behaviors, namely in (a) substance-related and addictive disorders, (b) disruptive, impulse-control, and conduct disorders, and (c) eating disorders. We also present studies focused on differences in demographic characteristics of the populations by gender, age, and education/social class. Delay discounting is presented as a process of studying intertemporal choices, resulting from decades of empirical research. Studies indicate that this process may provide explanation as to why individuals will sometimes choose a smaller reward, available sooner, instead of a larger reward available later. When studying populations with the above-mentioned problems, they tend to exhibit more pronounced discounting functions than control groups. The association between discounting and gender is not clear. The relationship between delay discounting and age is relatively clear, where older individuals discount less markedly than younger individuals. Studies suggest that shallower discounting gradients are associated with higher levels of intelligence and academic success. We emphasize the need for more empirical research on delay discounting, especially in regard to deviant behavior that may be associated with impulse-control disorders.     

Concave utility,transaction costs,and risk in measuring discounting of delayed rewards

Research has consistently found that the decline in the present values of delayed rewards as delay increases is better fit by hyperbolic than by exponential delay-discounting functions. However, concave utility, transaction costs, and risk each could produce hyperbolic-looking data, even when the underlying discounting function is exponential. In Experiments 1 (N = 45) and 2 (N = 103), participants placed bids indicating their present values of real future monetary rewards in computer-based 2nd-price auctions. Both experiments suggest that utility is not sufficiently concave to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions. Experiment 2 provided no evidence that the effects of transaction costs and risk are large enough to account for the superior fit of hyperbolic functions.     

共患难,更同盟:共同经历相同负性情绪事件促进合作行为

4项实验探讨了共同经历相同负性情绪事件,相比单独经历负性情绪事件,是否以及如何促进了个体间的合作。实验1~3分别采用抽奖任务和瑞文推理测验任务操纵负性情绪事件,采用公共物品博弈任务测量合作行为,结果表明,共同经历相同负性情绪事件,相比单独经历负性情绪事件,促进了个体间的合作行为。实验2通过测量归属需要、社会联结和内群体认同,实验3通过操纵归属需要,来考察共同经历相同负性情绪事件促进合作行为的潜在机制,结果表明,共同经历者之间的合作行为受归属需要的驱动,而社会联结和内群体认同不足以对该现象进行解释。实验4通过操纵个体共同经历“相同”和“不同”的负性情绪事件,进一步厘清了,促进个体间的合作是由于“共同经历相同的负性情绪事件”而非“共同经历负性情绪”造成的。研究结果有利于解释小群体的形成,对群体和社会管理亦具有借鉴意义。     

Good or Bad,We Want it Now: Fixed‐cost Present Bias for Gains and Losses Explains Magnitude Asymmetries in Intertemporal Choice

Intertemporal tradeoffs are ubiquitous in decision making, yet preferences for current versus future losses are rarely explored in empirical research. Whereas rational‐economic theory posits that neither outcome sign (gains vs. losses) nor outcome magnitude (small vs. large) should affect delay discount rates, both do, and moreover, they interact: in three studies, we show that whereas large gains are discounted less than small gains, large losses are discounted more than small losses. This interaction can be understood through a reconceptualization of fixed‐cost present bias, which has traditionally described a psychological preference for immediate rewards. First, our results establish present bias for losses—a psychological preference to have losses over with now. Present bias thus predicts increased discounting of future gains but decreased (or even negative) discounting of future losses. Second, because present bias preferences do not scale with the magnitude of possible gains or losses, they play a larger role, relative to other motivations for discounting, for small magnitude intertemporal decisions than for large magnitude intertemporal decisions. Present bias thus predicts less discounting of large gains than small gains but more discounting of large losses than small losses. The present research is the first to demonstrate that the effect of outcome magnitude on discount rates may be opposite for gains and losses and also the first to offer a theory (an extension of present bias) and process data to explain this interaction. The results suggest that policy efforts to encourage future‐oriented choices should frame outcomes as large gains or small losses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrepancy detection and vulnerability to misleading postevent information

When people are exposed to misleading details after a witnessed event, they often claim that they saw the misleading details as part of the event. We refer to this as themisinformation effect. In four experiments, involving 570 subjects, we explored the role that discrepancy detection plays in the misinformation effect. Experiment 1 showed that subjects who naturally read a post-event narrative more slowly were more resistant to the effects of misleading information contained in the narrative. In Experiment 2, subjects who naturally read more slowly were more likely to detect a discrepancy between what they were reading and what was stored in their memory. In Experiment 3, subjects who were instructed to read slowly were more likely to detect a discrepancy than were those who were instructed to read quickly. In Experiment 4, subjects who were instructed to read slowly were more resistant to misleading postevent information. Taken together, these results suggest that longer reading times are associated with a greater scrutiny of postevent information. This leads to an increased likelihood that discrepancies will be detected and that the misinformation will be resisted.     

Connectives and narrative text: The role of continuity

Connectives are text devices that signal the relation between adjacent sentences. Recently there has been a surge of research interest in the role played by connectives in on-line processing. The present research tested the hypothesis that connectives will impact on-line processing to the extent that they signal a text event that represents a departure from the continuity of the events stated in the text. In Experiment 1, participants generated sentences to follow a stimulus sentence. An additive, causal, or adversative connective (or no connective) was provided to serve as the first word of the participants’ sentence. Results showed that sentences generated in response to additive or causal connectives depicted text events that were continuous with the stimulus text. In contrast, sentences generated in response to adversative connectives depicted discontinuous text events. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants read coherent sentence pairs containing inappropriately placed additive, causal, or adversative connectives. Support for the continuity hypothesis was found when it was shown that adversative connectives led to the greatest amount of processing disruption, as measured by longer reading time on the postconnective sentence (Experiment 2) and lower ratings of coherence (Experiment 3). Future research in this area is discussed.     

Event valence and spatial metaphors of time

Recent research suggests that people's understanding of the abstract domain of time is dependent on the more concrete domain of space. Boroditsky and Ramscar (2002) found that spatial context influences whether people see themselves as moving through time (ego-moving perspective) or as time moving towards them (time-moving perspective). Based on studies of the embodiment of affective experience, we examined whether affect might also influence which spatial metaphor of time people adopt. The results of Experiments 1 and 2 showed that participants who imagined a negative event were more likely to report that the event was approaching them, whereas those who imagined a positive event were more likely to report that they were approaching the event. Experiments 3a and 3b showed that participants judge an event to be more positive if it is described from the ego-moving perspective than if it is described from the time-moving perspective. Results from these studies provide initial evidence that positive and negative events are associated with different spatial metaphors of time.     

情绪对延迟折扣的影响：现状、机制与展望

延迟折扣研究领域日益重视情绪的影响作用。本文基于三类研究取向对情绪与延迟折扣关系研究进行了回顾。情绪效价和唤醒度均影响延迟折扣,但是研究结果并不一致;具体情绪类型不同,其对延迟折扣影响也存在差异。除此之外,本文就情绪信息理论、情绪动机维度理论和评估倾向理论如何解释延迟折扣进行了详细阐述。未来的研究需要进一步深入考察情绪影响延迟折扣的认知神经机制,从而为延迟折扣的负性情绪效应的干预提供可靠的科学依据。     

跨期选择的性质探索

跨期选择指人们对发生在不同时间点的价值做出的权衡与决策。大量研究证明, 跨期选择中人们存在普遍的时间折扣倾向, 即将未来的价值折扣后与当前价值进行权衡。跨期选择研究不仅与人类心智的起源与机制等基础科学问题密切相关, 也关系到国家公共政策的制定等现实问题。本项目拟采用实验室研究和大规模问卷调查结合的方法, 深入探索跨期选择的本质。一方面, 采用实验室研究法探讨影响跨期选择的重要因素, 以探索：(1) 跨期选择的效价及其与价值数量、延迟时间的交互作用及其心理机制; (2) 跨期选择中是否存在领域特异性及其心理机制; 另一方面, 通过全国范围的调查, 从而：(1) 建立中国城镇居民时间折扣率的常模; (2) 测量不同类型人群的时间折扣率, 以探讨跨期选择的性质与内涵。项目研究结果将有利于加深学界对跨期选择现象的理解。