Elaboration and numerical anchoring: Implications of attitude theories for consumer judgment and decision making

Researchers across many domains have examined the impact of externally presented numerical anchors on perceiver judgments. In the traditional paradigm, “anchored” judgments are typically explained as a result of elaborate thinking (i.e., confirmatory hypothesis testing that selectively activates anchor-consistent information in memory). Consistent with a long tradition in attitude change, we suggest that the same judgments can result from relatively thoughtful or non-thoughtful processes, with more thoughtful processes resulting in judgments that have more lasting impact. We review recent anchoring research consistent with this elaboration-based perspective and discuss implications for past anchoring results and theory in judgment and decision making.     

Not all stereotyping is created equal: differential consequences of thoughtful versus non-thoughtful stereotyping

Much research emphasizes heuristic use of stereotypes, though stereotypes have long been considered as capable of influencing more thoughtful processing of social information. Direct comparisons between thoughtful and non-thoughtful stereotyping are lacking in the literature. Recent research in attitude change emphasizes the different consequences of judgments arising from relatively thoughtful versus non-thoughtful processes. Therefore, increased thought could not only fail to decrease stereotyping but might also create stereotypic perceptions that are more likely to have lasting impact. The current studies demonstrate thoughtful and non-thoughtful stereotyping within the same setting. More thoughtful stereotyping is more resistant to future attempts at change and to warnings of possible bias. Implications are discussed for the typical research questions asked after observing stereotypic judgements.     

Uninformative Anchors Have Persistent Effects on Valuation Judgments

Anchoring effects influence a wide range of numeric judgments, including valuation judgments, such as willingness‐to‐pay (WTP). However, prior research has not established whether anchoring only temporarily distorts responses or exerts persistent influence on preferences. This article presents three incentive compatible experiments examining the long‐term effects of random anchoring on WTP. Study 1 evaluated the persistence of anchoring effects over long durations, and showed that the strength of the effect decayed but did not disappear completely even 8 weeks later. In Study 2, a random anchor significantly influenced WTP after one week, regardless of whether WTP was also elicited immediately following the anchoring procedure, showing that consistency motivations do not account for persistence of anchoring effects. Study 3 showed relatively low anchors resulted in more stable valuations, compared with participants who reported WTP with no anchoring procedure. Together with the pattern of decay over time in Study 1, this suggests that anchoring facilitates the “imprinting” of valuation judgments for later retrieval. These studies show that anchoring effects can lead to lasting changes in valuation judgments, providing the first demonstration of long‐term persistence of constructed preferences as a result of an uninformative and arbitrary manipulation.     

Can a Rude Waiter Make Your Food Less Tasty? Social Class Differences in Thinking Style and Carryover in Consumer Judgments

Building on the notion that cognitive processes vary across social classes, we predict that social class shapes thinking style, which in turn affects consumer judgments. In doing so, we employ service failure domains as a way to understand social class effects. Across four studies, we show that, when faced with a failure incident occurring in one service dimension (e.g., rude employees), consumers in the low social class, relative to those in the high social class, carry over to influence their evaluations of the other service dimensions (e.g., food quality) that are unrelated to the failure incident. We further show that low‐class consumers favor a holistic style of thinking, whereas high‐class consumers favor an analytic style of thinking and that these differences in thinking style account for the carryover effects on evaluations. The pattern of the effects exists when the service failure is perceived to be severe rather than minor.     

Anchoring effects on performance judgments

Three studies were conducted investigating the effects of irrelevant anchors on performance judgments. Both a lab and field study demonstrated that an alternative anchoring manipulation that did not involve an explicit comparative question had effects on performance judgments similar to a traditional anchoring manipulation. The final study examined whether the anchoring effects were more likely when the anchor was highly applicable to the final judgment. The results indicated that both highly applicable and low applicable anchors produced an anchoring effect, but the highly applicable anchors had a larger effect on performance judgments. Evidence was also found for asymmetrical anchoring effects. In two of the three studies, high anchors increased performance judgments relative to the control group, whereas low anchors were not significantly different from the control group.     

Elaboration and numerical anchoring: Breadth,depth, and the role of (non‐)thoughtful processes in anchoring theories

Noted Judgment and Decision Making (JDM) researchers differ in their opinions of whether and how an attitudes and persuasion (A&;P) view of anchoring might add to the existing anchoring literature. Epley and Gilovich (2010) and Russo (2010) supported the breadth of variables that an attitudinal view of brings to bear on anchoring phenomena and the potential operation of different psychological processes across different contexts. They also suggest extensions to other types of anchors (along with Frederick et al. 2010), to alternative paradigms, and to other classes of moderators, such as goals. Authors of all three commentaries wondered if the evidence we presented speaks to traditional issues related to processes underlying anchoring. Frederick et al. (2010) also took a different approach in suggesting that anchoring is always due to non-thoughtful processes despite the fact that thoughtful processes can also influence judgments. This approach diverges from prominent reviews of the anchoring literature and implies that the presence of any simple, associative mechanism makes the overall process that involves that mechanism “non-thoughtful.” We discuss how this approach differs from our own, and we discuss the implications of the other observations in each commentary.     

Sadness and susceptibility to judgmental bias: the case of anchoring

In a wide range of empirical paradigms, sadness has been associated with more extensive and detail-oriented thinking than happiness, resulting in reductions in judgmental bias that arise from reliance on stereotypes and other simple decision heuristics. It was hypothesized that anchoring would constitute a significant exception to this general pattern. Recent research on anchoring indicates that an active thought process underlies the emergence of this bias. If sad people are likely to think more actively about the judgmental anchor than their neutral-mood counterparts, their subsequent judgments should be more likely to be assimilated toward this reference point. This prediction was confirmed in two experiments demonstrating that sad people are indeed more susceptible to anchoring bias than are people in a neutral mood. Moreover, this effect generalized over judgments in positive, neutral, and negative content domains.     

权力与耐心：权力感对时间知觉与跨期决策的影响

已有研究发现高权力感会使个体更耐心,更偏好延迟的大奖励。本研究假设高权力感导致耐心也会体现在时间知觉上,并且时间知觉是高权力导致耐心的心理机制。研究通过考察权力感对时间知觉与跨期决策的影响,以及时间知觉的中介作用对此假设进行了检验。实验1通过回忆法启动权力感,检验权力感对时间知觉的影响;实验2采用角色扮演法启动权力感,考察权力感对跨期决策的影响,并检验时间知觉的中介作用。结果发现：相比低权力感,高权力感个体感觉时间过得更快,进而使个体在跨期决策中更偏好延迟的大奖励,权力感并不直接影响跨期决策。研究揭示了权力感对时间知觉的影响,为权力感影响耐心行为的解释提供了时间知觉的新视角。     

Psychological Processes in Perceiving Reality

Little attention has been paid to the mental processes and the story elements that influence perceived reality judgments of media stories. People often lack the motivation or ability to be thoughtful about perceived reality judgments. This is particularly true when the stimulus controls the pace of the story (e.g., television). It is possible that people use the typical and atypical elements of a story as a heuristic for making simple judgments about perceived reality of media narratives. In 2 studies, the careful manipulation of atypical and typical information in a soap opera and a news story predicted about half the variance in perceived reality. As the typicality of the stories increased, so did the participants' ratings of the perceived reality of the stories. In a 3rd study, while viewing entertainment television shows, participants used dials to continuously rate the selected programs for perceived reality, typicality, interest, and liking. Results indicate that viewers can make moment-to-moment reality judgments, and these judgments are strongly related to typicality. Interest-liking was related to typicality and perceived reality for drama. For comedy, however, situations with low reality produced greater interest and liking. Typicality appears to be a key psychological characteristic of media stories.     

Changing prejudiced attitudes by thinking about persuasive messages: implications for resistance

This research showed that changing attitudes toward stigmatized groups can result from both the simple processes that require little thinking and the traditional elaborative forms of persuasion that require high thinking processes. Importantly, even when the obtained attitude change was equivalent for situations in which there was high and low message elaboration, the changes produced in high thinking conditions were found to be more resistant to further attacks than equivalent changes produced by less thoughtful mechanisms. Not only were those attitudes more resistant as measured objectively (Study 1) but participants also perceived their attitudes to be subjectively more resistant (Study 2). These studies suggest that examining the processes by which prejudice is changed can be important for understanding the consequences and long‐term implications of treatments and campaigns oriented to changing attitudes toward stigmatized groups.     

Attitudes toward hiring people with disabilities: A meta-cognitive approach to persuasion

Attitudes toward hiring people with disabilities are becoming critical for promoting diversity and egalitarianism within organizations. The few interventions designed to promote positive attitudes toward people with disabilities have relied on changing either the direction and/or the amount of thoughts people generate with regard to this discriminated, understudied group. In the present research, we examine the impact of a different psychological process of attitude change based on meta-cognition, or thinking about thinking. We used a meta-cognitive approach to changing prejudiced attitudes because thoughtful processes are often overlooked or denied with regard to this particular group. Specifically, we explored the impact of thought confidence on attitude change across two studies designed to change attitudes toward the incorporation of people with disabilities in companies. In each study, participants first generated either positive or negative thoughts about the proposal (thought valence manipulation). Then, the confidence in those thoughts was measured (Study 1) or manipulated (Study 2). In concert with the self-validation hypothesis, results showed that when thought confidence was relatively high (vs. low), thought valence had a greater impact on attitudes. Thus, thought valence was more predictive of attitudes when participants were confident in their thoughts. Specifically, confidence in thoughts enhanced persuasion for positive thoughts but reduced persuasion for negative thoughts. These findings provide insights into assessing effects of interventions aiming at improving attitudes toward the inclusion of minority groups in organizations.     

Champions,Converts, Doubters,and Defectors: The Impact of Shifting Perceptions on Momentum for Change

Maintaining momentum is a key influence on the ultimate success of large‐scale change. In this paper, we develop theory to explain how stable versus shifting change‐supportive perceptions over time differentially influence the perceived momentum associated with goal‐directed change (i.e., change‐based momentum). We use cross‐level polynomial regression and data obtained early and 1 year later within an organization implementing a lean manufacturing transformation to model changes in individual perceptions. Results suggest that momentum perceptions are higher for “Champions” (stable and high perceptions over time) as compared to “Converts” (increasing perceptions over time), but momentum perceptions are lower for “Defectors” (decreasing perceptions over time) as compared to “Doubters” (stable and low perceptions over time). We find that even if participants converge upon change‐supportive perceptions later in the change process, early divergent perceptions influence subsequent momentum for the change. These findings highlight the important role of temporal shifts in perceptions for organizational change processes.     

The effect of feedback on children’s metacognitive judgments: a heuristic account

In three experiments, we investigated whether the feedback effect on the accuracy of children’s metacognitive judgments results from an improvement in monitoring processes or the use of the Anchoring-and-Adjustment heuristic. Experiment 1 revealed that adding feedback increased the accuracy of young children’s (aged 4, 6, and 8 years) memory prediction. In Experiment 2, the influence of an external anchor on children’s metacognitive judgment was established. Finally, in Experiment 3, two memory tasks that differed in terms of difficulty were administered. Participants were randomly assigned to an anchoring (high/low/no anchor) and a feedback (feedback/no feedback) condition. Results demonstrated that children in the feedback condition adjusted their predictions toward the feedback, regardless of the task’s difficulty. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that external information provided by feedback is used as an anchor for judgment. This interpretation is strengthened by the correlation found between the two scores computed to assess participants’ susceptibility to anchoring and feedback effects, which indicates that children who are more sensitive to the anchoring effect are also more sensitive to the feedback effect.     

Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior

The behavioral correlates of human judgment have received little attention from judgment and decision making researchers. One behavioral domain that provides for the study of judgment-behavior relations is task motivation (i.e., the allocation of time and effort to a task). Judgments of contingent relations are primary components of several theories of motivation, including expectancy theories and the theory of behavior in organizations proposed by Naylor, Pritchard, and Ilgen (1980). The characteristics of heuristic judgment processes are hypothesized to affect contingency judgments and thus behavioral allocations of time and effort. This paper examines the effects of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic upon (a) judgments of future effort and performance and (b) upon actual allocations of time and effort using several types of anchoring information. Results indicate that both irrelevant and relevant information have strong anchoring effects on effort and performance judgments, but do not have concomitant effects on behavior. Implications for the role of judgment in motivation and for the link between judgment and behavior are discussed.     

Intuitive Judgments of Rate Change: The Case of Teenage Pregnancies

Three studies examined intuitive judgments of rate change. These studies considered how people intuitively decide that the occurrence rate of particular events is on the increase or in decline. Using the topic of teenage pregnancy, participants were given information about the population size and the frequency of pregnancies at a hypothetical high school in three studies at two points in time. In the first of these studies details about population size were made highly salient, and here population information was found to directly influence intuitive judgments of rate change. In the second study population information was presented in a more realistic fashion. Under these conditions judgments that the pregnancy rate had changed were found to be based on changes in the number of pregnancies. Whenever the number of pregnancies changed, regardless of compensating changes in school size, people inferred a change in rate. In the third of these studies, population details were not provided; only information about number of pregnancies was presented. Subjects' queries for additional information were then assessed. Despite the absence of population information, few subjects requested population details when asked what additional information they would like in order to judge the relative seriousness of the pregnancy problem. Taken together, the three studies suggest that when making intuitive judgments of change in rate, people may be relatively insensitive to the importance of population information. The implications of such findings are discussed.     

反向思考和类比思考对锚定效应的影响

采用基于锚定效应经典研究范式的自编问卷对120名在校大学生进行调查研究。研究一通过对参与者使用反向思考与类比思考的应对方案前后的数据比较,考察两种思考方法是否能够降低锚定效应的影响。以往同类研究中发现,时间压力作为一个重要影响因素会对最终结果产生重大影响。研究二基于研究一加入时间压力来考察高时间压力是否能够使应对方案失效。结果表明,反向思考和类比思考的应对方案能够降低锚定效应的影响,高时间压力下应对方案依然有效。这一结果启示我们,在决策时,要有批判精神,要三思而行,做一个理智的决策者。     

The anchoring effect in metamemory monitoring

Judgments about future memory performance (metamemory judgments) are known to be susceptible to illusions and bias. Here we asked whether metamemory judgments are affected, like many other forms of judgment, by numerical anchors. Experiment 1 confirmed previous research showing an effect of informative anchors (e.g., past peer performance) on metamemory monitoring. In four further experiments, we then explored the effects of uninformative anchors. All of the experiments obtained significant anchoring effects on metamemory monitoring; in contrast, the anchors had no effect on recall itself. We also explored the anchoring effect on metamemory control (restudy choices) in Experiment 4. The results suggested that anchors can affect metamemory monitoring, which in turn affects metamemory control. The present research reveals that informative and, more importantly, uninformative numbers that have no influence on recall itself can bias metamemory judgments. On the basis of the current theoretical understanding of the anchoring effect and metamemory monitoring, these results offer insight into the processes that trigger metacognitive biases.     

The role of a change heuristic in judgments of sound duration

The present study investigated whether the quality of a frequency change within a sound (i.e., smooth vs. abrupt) would influence perception of its duration. In three experiments, participants were presented with two consecutive sounds on each of a series of trials, and their task was to judge whether the second sound was longer or shorter in duration than the first. In Experiment 1, participants were more likely to judge sounds consisting of a smooth and continuous change in frequency as longer in duration than sounds that maintained a constant frequency. In Experiment 2, the same bias was observed for sounds incorporating an abrupt change in frequency, but only when the frequency change was relatively small. The results of Experiment 3 suggested that the application of a change heuristic when generating duration judgments depends on the perception of change as originating from a single, integrated perceptual object.