Beliefs in moral luck: When and why blame hinges on luck

Belief in moral luck is represented in judgements that offenders should be held accountable for intent to cause harm as well as whether or not harm occurred. Scores on a measure of moral luck beliefs predicted judgements of offenders who varied in intent and the outcomes of their actions, although judgements overall were not consistent with abstract beliefs in moral luck. Prompting participants to consider alternative outcomes, particularly worse outcomes, reduced moral luck beliefs. Findings suggest that some people believe that offenders should be punished based on the outcome of their actions. Furthermore, prompting counterfactuals decreased judgements consistent with moral luck beliefs. The results have implications for theories of moral judgement as well as legal decision making.     

Safety and epistemic luck

There is some consensus that for S to know that p, it cannot be merely a matter of luck that S’s belief that p is true. This consideration has led Duncan Pritchard and others to propose a safety condition on knowledge. In this paper, we argue that the safety condition is not a proper formulation of the intuition that knowledge excludes luck. We suggest an alternative proposal in the same spirit as safety, and find it lacking as well.     

Epistemic luck and the generality problem

Epistemic luck has been the focus of much discussion recently. Perhaps the most general knowledge-precluding type is veritic luck, where a belief is true but might easily have been false. Veritic luck has two sources, and so eliminating it requires two distinct conditions for a theory of knowledge. I argue that, when one sets out those conditions properly, a solution to the generality problem for reliabilism emerges.

Dispositional pessimism but not optimism is related to sickness absence caused by musculoskeletal symptoms

Musculoskeletal disorders account for a higher proportion of sickness absence from work in the European Union than any other health condition. The present study examined the associations between work environment, dispositional optimism/pessimism and medically certified sickness absence caused by musculoskeletal complaints in a sample of employees from the Norwegian Armed Forces (N = 1190, 77.5% men). Dispositional pessimism, but not optimism, predicted the amount of absence also when taking into account the effects of age and the work environment. Overall, our results support previous studies suggesting that pessimism is a more salient predictor of physical health than optimism. Our results also suggest that it may be beneficial for employers to combine medical treatment of musculoskeletal symptoms with psychological treatment targeting pessimistic outcome expectancies in order to reduce the amount of sickness absence.     

Later life health optimism,pessimism and realism: Psychosocial contributors and health correlates

Prior research has established positive outcomes of health optimism (appraising one's health as good despite poor objective health (OH)) and negative outcomes of health pessimism (appraising health as poor despite good OH), yet little is known about their contributors. We examined the role of psychosocial factors (life event stress, depression, dispositional optimism, perceived social support) in health realism (appraising health in accordance with OH), optimism and pessimism among 489 older men and women. We then accounted for the psychosocial factors when examining multiple health correlates of health realism, optimism and pessimism. Controlling for age, gender and income, regression results indicate that depression and social support were associated with less health optimism, while dispositional optimism was associated with greater health optimism among those in poor OH. Dispositional optimism was associated with less health pessimism and life event stress was associated with greater pessimism among those in good OH. Beyond the effects of the psychosocial factors, structural equation model results indicate that health optimism was positively associated with healthy behaviours and perceived control over one's health; health pessimism was associated with poorer perceived health care management. Health optimism and pessimism have different psychosocial contributors and health correlates, validating the health congruence approach to later life well-being, health and survival.     

Dispositional and comparative optimism interact to predict avoidance of a looming health threat

Research indicates that when confronted with a health threat, individuals high in both dispositional and comparative optimism employ a more avoidant style of coping than individuals high in dispositional but low in comparative optimism. We examined the hypothesis that threat distance moderates this interactive optimism association. In two studies, participants were randomly assigned to a looming or distant threat condition. Study 1 revealed that in the looming threat condition, participants high in both forms of optimism were more likely to minimise the threat and less inclined to seek additional health information relative to participants high in dispositional but low in comparative optimism. In Study 2, the same interaction pattern emerged on a measure of psychological abstraction suggesting these variables combine to alter broad information processing strategies. Implications for considering multiple forms of optimism when delivering health status information are discussed.     

大学生归因方式、气质性乐观与心理幸福感的关系

采用问卷调查的方法,对350名大学生的归因方式、气质性乐观与心理幸福感(即抑郁、生活满意度)的关系进行了研究,结果表明:(1)归因方式问卷的总分与气质性乐观、生活满意度呈显著负相关,与抑郁呈显著正相关,气质性乐观与抑郁呈显著负相关,与生活满意度呈显著正相关;(2)归因方式的自身性维度上,乐观者、悲观者的归因方式无显著性差异;持久性和整体性维度上,对可控性低水平事件的归因方式无显著性差异,对中、高水平事件,悲观者的归因方式比乐观者更悲观;(3)归因方式对抑郁、生活满意度的影响以气质性乐观为中介变量.     

Looking forward to tomorrow: The buffering effect of a daily optimism intervention

This research demonstrates the effectiveness of a brief daily self-applied optimism intervention in an adult normal population. Participants completed Life Orientation Test-Revised, Positive and Negative Affect Scale, Satisfaction with Life Scale, and Burnout Measure scales before, immediately after, and one month after the intervention. At baseline, optimism intervention group (N = 36) and control group (N = 41) were statistically similar on the variables of interest. At post-test, and also one month later, the intervention group demonstrated reduced pessimism, negative affect, and emotional exhaustion, although optimism, positive affect, and life satisfaction did not increase. Higher initial optimism increased the intervention effect for the optimism group, but not for the control group, by diminishing negative affect and emotional exhaustion, and increasing optimism. Sixty-one percent of the activities mentioned by the control group participants focused on duties and work, compared to 28% in the optimism condition. No correlations were found between initial optimism or pessimism, and the type of activities mentioned.     

Get lucky: situationism and circumstantial moral luck

Situationism is, roughly, the thesis that normatively irrelevant environmental factors have a great impact on our behaviour without our being aware of this influence. Surprisingly, there has been little work done on the connection between situationism and moral luck. Given that it is often a matter of luck what situations we find ourselves in, and that we are greatly influenced by the circumstances we face, it seems also to be a matter of luck whether we are blameworthy or praiseworthy for our actions in those circumstances. We argue that such situationist moral luck, as a variety of circumstantial moral luck, exemplifies a distinct and interesting type of moral luck. Further, there is a case to be made that situationist moral luck is perhaps more worrying than some other well-discussed cases of (supposed) moral luck.     

Dispositional optimism and physical wellbeing: The relevance of culture,gender, and socioeconomic status

The present study examined the relationship between dispositional optimism and physical wellbeing (as reflected in physical symptom reporting) in two groups of American and Jordanian college students. It also assessed moderation effects of culture, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES). Participants were administered a questionnaire consisting of items pertaining to dispositional optimism (as measured by the Revised Life Orientation Test, LOT‐R) along with items assessing physical symptom reporting and sociodemographic factors (e.g., gender, socioeconomic status). The results revealed significant negative correlations between dispositional optimism and physical symptom reporting for both American and Jordanian participants, although the magnitude of the correlation for the American group was noticeably larger than that for the Jordanian group. The results also showed that women, especially Jordanians, were more likely than men to report physical symptoms. Among Jordanians, physical symptom reporting was more common among those of lower SES. No statistically significant differences in physical symptom reporting were found between American men and women or between the two cultural groups. Multiple regression analyses revealed no statistically significant interactions between optimism and cultural background, optimism and gender, or optimism and SES. Overall, the results suggest that optimism is the factor most predictive of physical symptom reporting, followed by SES and gender. These results corroborate previous findings on the relationship between dispositional optimism and physical wellbeing, and point to crosscultural differences in relationship patterns. These differences suggest that although personality characteristics such as optimism may play an important role in the physical wellbeing of both Western and non‐Western groups, the influence of sociodemographic factors such as gender and SES and their interaction with cultural variables must not be overlooked.     

Dispositional optimism,self‐framing and medical decision‐making

Self‐framing is an important but underinvestigated area in risk communication and behavioural decision‐making, especially in medical settings. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship among dispositional optimism, self‐frame and decision‐making. Participants (N = 500) responded to the Life Orientation Test‐Revised and self‐framing test of medical decision‐making problem. The participants whose scores were higher than the middle value were regarded as highly optimistic individuals. The rest were regarded as low optimistic individuals. The results showed that compared to the high dispositional optimism group, participants from the low dispositional optimism group showed a greater tendency to use negative vocabulary to construct their self‐frame, and tended to choose the radiation therapy with high treatment survival rate, but low 5‐year survival rate. Based on the current findings, it can be concluded that self‐framing effect still exists in medical situation and individual differences in dispositional optimism can influence the processing of information in a framed decision task, as well as risky decision‐making.     

Dispositional and induced optimism lead to attentional preference for faces displaying positive emotions: An eye-tracker study

The aim of this study was to examine whether dispositional optimism and induced optimism are associated with an attentional bias for positive stimuli. Fifty-six healthy participants performed an eye-tracking task twice, while their gazing time at faces displaying joy, anger, pain, or a neutral expression was measured. Participants scoring high on dispositional optimism tended to gaze longer at joy faces during the first face-presentation trial compared to participants scoring lower on optimism, and this correlation became significant during the second face-presentation trial. In between the two presentations, participants received either an optimism manipulation or a control manipulation. There was no effect of type of manipulation on gazing behavior but post hoc analyses demonstrated that participants showing an increase in state optimism displayed a significant decrease in gaze duration for anger faces and a nearly significant increase in gaze duration for joy faces.     

Beliefs around luck: Confirming the empirical conceptualization of beliefs around luck and the development of the Darke and Freedman beliefs around luck scale

The current study developed a multi-dimensional measure of beliefs around luck. Two studies introduced the Darke and Freedman beliefs around luck scale where the scale showed a consistent 4 component model (beliefs in luck, rejection of luck, being lucky, and being unlucky) across two samples (n = 250; n = 145). The scales also show adequate reliability statistics and validity by ways of comparison with other measures of beliefs around luck, peer and family ratings and expected associations with measures of personality, individual difference and well-being variables.     

Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. As a consequence, people tend to think that they are more likely than the average person to experience common events and less likely than the average person to experience rare events. This causes unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events, but unrealistic pessimism in the case of rare desirable events and common undesirable events (Studies 1 and 2). Study 2 further suggests that both egocentrism and focalism underlie these biases. These results suggest that unrealistic optimism is not as ubiquitous as once thought.     

Self-affirmation moderates effects of unrealistic optimism and pessimism on reactions to tailored risk feedback

We examined whether self-affirmation would facilitate intentions to engage in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening among individuals who were off-schedule for CRC screening and who were categorised as unrealistically optimistic, realistic or unrealistically pessimistic about their CRC risk. All participants received tailored risk feedback; in addition, one group received threatening social comparison information regarding their risk factors, a second received this information after a self-affirmation exercise and a third was a no-treatment control. When participants were unrealistically optimistic about their CRC risk (determined by comparing their perceived comparative risk to calculations from a risk algorithm), they expressed greater interest in screening if they were self-affirmed (relative to controls). Non-affirmed unrealistic optimists expressed lower interest relative to controls, suggesting that they were responding defensively. Realistic participants and unrealistically pessimistic participants who were self-affirmed expressed relatively less interest in CRC screening, suggesting that self-affirmation can be helpful or hurtful depending on the accuracy of one's risk perceptions.