Facts and Possibilities: A Model‐Based Theory of Sentential Reasoning

This article presents a fundamental advance in the theory of mental models as an explanation of reasoning about facts, possibilities, and probabilities. It postulates that the meanings of compound assertions, such as conditionals (if) and disjunctions (or), unlike those in logic, refer to conjunctions of epistemic possibilities that hold in default of information to the contrary. Various factors such as general knowledge can modulate these interpretations. New information can always override sentential inferences; that is, reasoning in daily life is defeasible (or nonmonotonic). The theory is a dual process one: It distinguishes between intuitive inferences (based on system 1) and deliberative inferences (based on system 2). The article describes a computer implementation of the theory, including its two systems of reasoning, and it shows how the program simulates crucial predictions that evidence corroborates. It concludes with a discussion of how the theory contrasts with those based on logic or on probabilities.     

More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single‐Bound Probability Estimates

Probability estimates can be given as ranges or uncertainty intervals, where often only one of the interval bounds (lower or upper) is specified. For instance, a climate forecast can describe La Niña as having “more than 70% chance” or “less than 90% chance” of occurring. In three experiments, we studied how research participants perceived climate‐related forecasts expressed with lower‐bound (“over X% chance”) or upper‐bound (“under Y% chance”) probability statements. Results indicate that such single‐bound statements give pragmatic information in addition to the numeric probabilities they convey. First, the studies show that these statements are directional, leading the listeners' attention in opposite directions. “Over” statements guide attention towards the possible occurrence of the event and are explained by reasons for why it might happen, while “under” statements direct attention to its possible non‐occurrence and are more often explained by reasons for why the target event might not appear, corresponding to positive (it is possible) versus negative (it is uncertain) verbal probabilities. Second, boundaries were found to reveal the forecaster's beliefs and could be perceived as indicative of an increasing or a decreasing trend. Single‐bound probability estimates are therefore not neutral communications of probability level but might “leak” information about the speaker's expectations and about past and future developments of the forecast. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self‐esteem mediates the relationship between spirituality and subjective well‐being in Iran

Self‐esteem appears to play a central role in the spiritual life and ethical behaviour of the typical Iranian. For example, for many Iranians, humankind is believed to be the crown of creation, and each person is believed to be individually valued by God. Previous empirical studies also indicate that in Iran spirituality is positively associated with self‐esteem. On this basis, it was hypothesised that self‐esteem would be one of the mechanisms through which spirituality leads to increased mental well‐being. Mediation analysis showed that self‐esteem was a partial mediator of the spirituality–well‐being relationship. Moreover, results of moderated mediation analysis revealed that this mediation was not significantly moderated by gender, and that the indirect path through self‐esteem was significant in both genders. Implications of the results and their relevance to other western and eastern religions (e.g. Christianity and Buddhism) are discussed.     

Identification Reduces Stigma of Mental Ill‐Health: A Community‐Based Study

The stigma surrounding mental ill‐health is an important issue that affects likelihood of diagnosis and uptake of services, as those affected may work to avoid exposure, judgment, or any perceived loss in status associated with their mental ill‐health. In this study, we drew upon social identity theory to examine how social group membership might influence the stigma surrounding mental ill‐health. Participants from two urban centers in Ireland (N = 626) completed a survey measuring stigma of mental health, perceived social support as well as identification with two different social groups (community and religion). Mediation analysis showed that subjective identification with religious and community groups led to greater perceived social support and consequently lower perceived stigma of mental ill‐health. Furthermore, findings indicated that high identification with more than one social group can lead to enhanced social resources, and that identification with a religious group was associated with greater community identification. This study thus extends the evidence base of group identification by demonstrating its relationship with stigma of mental ill‐health, while also reinforcing how multiple identities can interact to enhance social resources crucial for well‐being.     

Anchoring Bullying and Victimization in Children Within a Five‐Factor Model‐Based Person‐Centred Framework

Although researchers have begun to explore bullying and victimization problems from a personality perspective, more work is needed on the particular personality constellations of children and adolescents who are vulnerable to victimization or prone to bullying. The principal research goal of the present study was to anchor the robust four‐group classification of bullying and victimization (i.e. bullies, victims, bully/victims and uninvolved children) within the Five‐Factor Model‐based person‐centred framework in primary school children (N = 660), controlling for gender. We found four distinct personality types in middle childhood: a mixed type, an undercontrolled type, a moderate type and a resilient type. In line with expectations, we found that a resilient personality profile protected children and adolescents against victimization and that children and adolescents with an undercontrolled or mixed personality profile were at increased risk to be bully/victims, rather than uninvolved in bully problems or victimization, compared with children with a moderate personality profile. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unique Events: The Underdetermination of Explanation

The paper explicates unique events and investigates their epistemology. Explications of unique events as individuated, different, and emergent are philosophically uninteresting. Unique events are topics of why-questions that radically underdetermine all their potential explanations. Uniqueness that is relative to a level of scientific development is differentiated from absolute uniqueness. Science eliminates relative uniqueness by discovery of recurrence of events and properties, falsification of assumptions of why-questions, and methodological simplification e.g. by explanatory methodological reduction. Finally, an overview of contemporary philosophical disputes that hinge on issues of uniqueness emphasizes its philosophical significance.     

A Model‐Based Cluster Analysis of Maternal Emotion Regulation and Relations to Parenting Behavior

In a diverse community sample of mothers (N = 108) and their preschool‐aged children (M_age = 3.50 years), this study conducted person‐oriented analyses of maternal emotion regulation (ER) based on a multimethod assessment incorporating physiological, observational, and self‐report indicators. A model‐based cluster analysis was applied to five indicators of maternal ER: maternal self‐report, observed negative affect in a parent–child interaction, baseline respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA), and RSA suppression across two laboratory tasks. Model‐based cluster analyses revealed four maternal ER profiles, including a group of mothers with average ER functioning, characterized by socioeconomic advantage and more positive parenting behavior. A dysregulated cluster demonstrated the greatest challenges with parenting and dyadic interactions. Two clusters of intermediate dysregulation were also identified. Implications for assessment and applications to parenting interventions are discussed.     

Debiasing Using Decomposition: The Case of Memory‐Based Credit Card Expense Estimates

This article develops a conceptual framework to examine how consumers incorporate memory‐based and context‐based cues in estimating past and future credit card expenses. Focusing on memory‐based information, in this framework we suggest that past credit card expenses may be recalled as holistic totals or episodic individual expenses depending on the accessibility of each form of expense. We tested the conceptual framework with 3 studies. Study 1 showed that the recency of past expenses and frequency of credit card usage moderated the extent to which past expenses were used in estimating future expenses. Study 1 also showed that self‐awareness of estimation bias affected consumers’ estimates of future expenses. Study 2 showed that a decomposition strategy (unbundling a total into subcategories), which serves to make episodic individual expenses more accessible, was effective in reducing sampling‐based bias. Study 3 provided a validity check and showed that decomposition cues reduced estimation errors and affected estimates of future expense. In this article, we demonstrate the manner in which memory‐based information is used to make estimates, and we also demonstrate the effectiveness of decomposition as a debiasing technique for past and future estimates.     

Protecting Against Low‐Probability Disasters: The Role of Worry

We carry out a large monetary stakes insurance experiment with very small probabilities of losses and ambiguous as well as exact probabilities. Many individuals do not want to pay anything for insurance whether the probabilities are given exactly or are ambiguous. Many others, however, are willing to pay surprisingly large amounts. With ambiguity, the percentage of those paying nothing is smaller and the willingness to pay (WTP) of the other individuals larger than with exact probabilities. Comparing elasticities with ambiguity, we find that worry is much more important than subjective probability in determining WTP for insurance. Furthermore, when the ambiguous loss probability is increased by a factor of 1000, it has almost no effect on WTP. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Making the Invisible Visible: Identifying and Articulating Culture in Practice‐Based Evidence

This study describes a conceptual tool, labeled the “culture cube,” developed to identify and articulate the cultural underpinnings of prevention and early intervention projects in five priority populations (i.e., African American, Asian Pacific Islander, Latino, Native American, and Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, and Questioning), participating in the California Reducing Disparities Project Phase 2 (CRDP Phase 2). The culture cube was developed for evaluation of these practice‐based evidence services (PBEs) for three purposes: (a) to focus attention on revealing and articulating more fully the operative worldview and culturally grounded frameworks underlying PBEs, explicitly identifying the links between cultural beliefs and values, community needs, and intervention design; (b) to guide the methods used to assess and evaluate PBEs so that the outcome indicators and process measures are conceptually consistent, community defined, and culturally centered; and (c) to invite communities to use their own indigenous epistemological frameworks to establish credible evidence. After reviewing the literature in this area and describing the theoretical framework for the culture cube, we describe its development, application, and the response to its use in the initial stages of the California Reducing Disparities Project‐Phase 2.     

Limited‐information goodness‐of‐fit testing of diagnostic classification item response models

Despite the growing popularity of diagnostic classification models (e.g., Rupp et al., 2010, Diagnostic measurement: theory, methods, and applications, Guilford Press, New York, NY) in educational and psychological measurement, methods for testing their absolute goodness of fit to real data remain relatively underdeveloped. For tests of reasonable length and for realistic sample size, full‐information test statistics such as Pearson's X² and the likelihood ratio statistic G² suffer from sparseness in the underlying contingency table from which they are computed. Recently, limited‐information fit statistics such as Maydeu‐Olivares and Joe's (2006, Psychometrika, 71, 713) M₂ have been found to be quite useful in testing the overall goodness of fit of item response theory models. In this study, we applied Maydeu‐Olivares and Joe's (2006, Psychometrika, 71, 713) M₂ statistic to diagnostic classification models. Through a series of simulation studies, we found that M₂ is well calibrated across a wide range of diagnostic model structures and was sensitive to certain misspecifications of the item model (e.g., fitting disjunctive models to data generated according to a conjunctive model), errors in the Q‐matrix (adding or omitting paths, omitting a latent variable), and violations of local item independence due to unmodelled testlet effects. On the other hand, M₂ was largely insensitive to misspecifications in the distribution of higher‐order latent dimensions and to the specification of an extraneous attribute. To complement the analyses of the overall model goodness of fit using M₂, we investigated the utility of the Chen and Thissen (1997, J. Educ. Behav. Stat., 22, 265) local dependence statistic $X_{\mathrm{LD}}^2$ for characterizing sources of misfit, an important aspect of model appraisal often overlooked in favour of overall statements. The $X_{\mathrm{LD}}^2$ statistic was found to be slightly conservative (with Type I error rates consistently below the nominal level) but still useful in pinpointing the sources of misfit. Patterns of local dependence arising due to specific model misspecifications are illustrated. Finally, we used the M₂ and $X_{\mathrm{LD}}^2$ statistics to evaluate a diagnostic model fit to data from the Trends in Mathematics and Science Study, drawing upon analyses previously conducted by Lee et al., (2011, IJT, 11, 144).     

Expertise in biological conceptions: The case of the vineyard

To study how expertise impacts the understanding of a complex system like the vineyard, three measures were used with 259 participants (190 non-experts, 34 winemakers and/or winegrowers, and 35 biologists): a questionnaire to check for expertise (the Plant Biology Questionnaire), a task about the Structure, Behaviour and Function model, and a measure of the content of the participants’ discourse with the ALCESTE software. Results showed that biologists mentioned functions significantly more often than behaviours, whereas it was the opposite for winegrowers. Non-experts mentioned functions and behaviours significantly less frequently than experts did. The content analysis confirmed the differential expression of each kind of expertise: scientific wording for biologists, technical wording for winegrowers, and words focused on perceptible structures for the non-experts. Results from all tasks were highly correlated and allowed for an interpretation of expertise in terms of mental models of the vineyard.     

Trust and intention to use autonomous vehicles: Manufacturer focus and passenger control

Autonomous Vehicle (AV) research has focused on public acceptance of and intention to use AVs, with trust emerging as important to these variables. Research on AV trust has centered on trust in vehicle performance. However, trust evaluation may include AV manufacturers and developers, and regulation pertaining to AVs; thus, we expand our measurement of trust to include beliefs based on manufacturers and regulation. In this experiment, we manipulate information regarding manufacturer focus (i.e., an emphasis on standards, regulations, and research (SRR) versus speed to market) to determine its effect on trust. When information focused on SRR, we found higher levels of trust in AV performance and in manufacturers, compared to when it focused on speed to market. In addition, information regarding passenger control (i.e., the ability to take over for the vehicle and to determine privacy settings) was manipulated to yield either high or low passenger control conditions. Behavioral Intention (BI) to use AVs was lowest when speed to market was emphasized and when passenger control was low. Furthermore, trust was tested as a mediator between perceived risk and BI. Trust in AV performance partially mediated the relationship between perceived AV performance risk and BI. In addition, trust in AV regulation partially mediated the relationship between AV privacy/security risk and BI. Researchers should continue to examine trust beyond the AV itself to encompass trust in manufacturers and regulations. Those designing and marketing AVs should carefully consider decisions that influence manufacturer/developer reputation and passenger control due to their effect on intention to use AVs.     

A mechanism model of the effect of hedonic product consumption on well‐being

In response to recent calls for research into activities that may increase happiness, this study uses longitudinal data to investigate changes in within-subject, instead of between-subject, well-being. In the context of hedonic product consumption, this study reveals a mechanism by which consumption influences well-being through the mediating effect of satisfaction with associated life domains. Four years of data from a large national panel survey show that consuming hedonic products has indirect effects on well-being, by improving consumers' satisfaction within relevant life domains. High hedonic consumption improves satisfaction with relevant life domains, primarily through more frequent consumption of low-cost hedonic products rather than less frequent consumption of high-cost hedonic products.     

Model theory of deduction: a unified computational approach

One of the most debated questions in psychology and cognitive science is the nature and the functioning of the mental processes involved in deductive reasoning. However, all existing theories refer to a specific deductive domain, like syllogistic, propositional or relational reasoning.
Our goal is to unify the main types of deductive reasoning into a single set of basic procedures. In particular, we bring together the microtheories developed from a mental models perspective in a single theory, for which we provide a formal foundation. We validate the theory through a computational model (UNICORE) which allows fine-grained predictions of subjects' performance in different reasoning domains.
The performance of the model is tested against the performance of experimental subjects—as reported in the relevant literature—in the three areas of syllogistic, relational and propositional reasoning. The computational model proves to be a satisfactory artificial subject, reproducing both correct and erroneous performance of the human subjects. Moreover, we introduce a developmental trend in the program, in order to simulate the performance of subjects of different ages, ranging from children (3–6) to adolescents (8–12) to adults (>21). The simulation model performs similarly to the subjects of different ages.
Our conclusion is that the validity of the mental model approach is confirmed for the deductive reasoning domain, and that it is possible to devise a unique mechanism able to deal with the specific subareas. The proposed computational model (UNICORE) represents such a unifying structure.     

Mental models and other misconceptions in children’s understanding of the earth

This study investigated the claim (e.g., Vosniadou & Brewer’s, 1992) that children have naive “mental models” of the earth and believe, for example, that the earth is flat or hollow. It tested the proposal that children appear to have these misconceptions because they find the researchers’ tasks and questions to be confusing and ambiguous. Participants were 6- and 7-year-olds (N = 127) who were given either the mental model theorists’ original drawing task or a new version in which the same instructions and questions were rephrased to minimize ambiguity and, thus, possible misinterpretation. In response to the new version, children gave substantially more indication of having scientific understanding and less of having naive mental models, suggesting that the misconceptions reported by the mental model theorists are largely methodological artifacts. There were also differences between the responses to the original version and those reported by Vosniadou and Brewer, indicating that other factors, such as cohort and cultural effects, are also likely to help explain the discrepant findings of previous research.