My Child Is Better Than Average: The Extension and Restriction of Unrealistic Optimism1

The purpose of the current study was to determine whether parents make unrealistic evaluations of children and what factors predict these evaluations. Parents of 5‐ and 6‐year‐olds rated their child's risk for various positive and negative outcomes, temperament, and health and behavior problems. Parents also completed an adult attachment measure. Parents appeared to give relatively little consideration to realistic constraints when predicting their child's future. Parents scoring higher on attachment avoidance were less optimistic that their child would attain positive outcomes and avoid negative outcomes, consistent with the view that optimism is a motivated phenomenon. Greater child internalizing behaviors also were associated with less parental optimism for positive outcomes. Findings have implications for the delivery of health messages to parents.     

Hopeful + Hoping = Hope: unique experiential features in the measurement of emotion

Abstract

Distinct differences have been found between hope and optimism based on retrospective stories. This study sought to replicate those findings when anticipating outcomes in real-time and examine whether they are affected by different lexical formulations of the word hope. One-hundred and two participants read two first-person, chronological vignettes. They rated their hope, optimism, fear, and worry about the anticipated outcome following each part of the story; they also rated their appraisals of importance, likelihood, and perceived control. Half of the participants read adjective forms of the states (e.g. hopeful) and half read verb forms (e.g. hoping). Differences in ratings for the adjective and verb forms were found for hope but not the other anticipatory states, and both forms of hope were found to differ from optimism. Implications of these lexical differences for understanding and measuring the experience of hope are discussed.     

Social Comparison of Health Risks: Locus of Control,the Person-Positivity Bias,and Unrealistic Optimism1

People typically attribute lower health risks to themselves than to others, a phenomenon referred to as unrealistic optimism. The present study tested the person positivity bias as a previously unexamined explanation of the phenomenon and analyzed the relationship between unrealistic optimism and expectations of control. High-school students estimated their own and one of three other persons’(the average student's, a randomly chosen student's, or their best same-sex friend's) chances of getting health problems. They also filled out questionnaires measuring locus of control and health-protective behavior. In contrast with the person positivity explanation, unrealistic optimism was not restricted to the “average other” condition. However, unrealistic optimism was stronger in subjects with a more internal locus of control than in subjects with a rather external locus of control. An unpredicted effect of estimation order was observed: Unrealistic optimism was stronger in subjects who estimated the comparison person's risks first than in subjects who started with own risks. This effect can be understood in terms of Codol's observation that people perceive others as more similar to themselves than they themselves are to others.     

Concurrently examining unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism: Temporal shifts,individual‐difference and event‐specific correlates,and behavioural outcomes

Researchers have spent considerable effort examining unrealistic absolute optimism and unrealistic comparative optimism, yet there is a lack of research exploring them concurrently. This longitudinal study repeatedly assessed unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism within a performance context over several months to identify the degree to which they shift as a function of proximity to performance and performance feedback, their associations with global individual difference and event‐specific factors, and their link to subsequent behavioural outcomes. Results showed similar shifts in unrealistic absolute and comparative optimism based on proximity to performance and performance feedback. Moreover, increases in both types of unrealistic optimism were associated with better subsequent performance beyond the effect of prior performance. However, several differences were found between the two forms of unrealistic optimism in their associations with global individual difference factors and event‐specific factors, highlighting the distinctiveness of the two constructs.     

Beliefs m Realistic and Unrealistic Control: Assessment and Implications

ABSTRACT Scales were constructed to measure perceived control over controllable events (realistic control) and perceived control over uncontrollable events (unrealistic control). Internal reliability, test-retest reliability, and discriminant validity of both scales were adequate. Study 1 measured perceived personal control over hassles that judges rated on general controllability. For hassles very high in controllability, perceived personal control was related to belief in realistic control but not to belief in unrealistic control; for hassles very low in controllability, perceived personal control was related to belief in unrealistic control but not to belief in realistic control. Study 2 showed that participants high in unrealistic control belief (but not those high in realistic control belief) persevered more on a task that was in part uncontrollable. Study 3 showed that the combination of low realistic control belief and high unrealistic control belief predicted poorer future health, particularly for participants who have reported the experience of many negative events and/or hassles. The conditions under which unrealistic control results in maladaptive outcomes are discussed.     

What do people think about when answering questionnaires to assess unrealistic optimism about skin cancer? A think aloud study

There is little information concerning what people think about when completing questionnaires that assess perceptions of risk, and even less for questionnaires assessing unrealistic optimism. The thoughts of 40 participants who displayed unrealistic optimism about risks of skin cancer were elicited using think aloud methods, when completing both direct and indirect ratings of unrealistic optimism. The most common thoughts overall concerned exposure to the sun, and features such as skin colouring. Thoughts concerning prevalence, reasons for risky behaviour and admissions of ignorance were more common for indirect measures of unrealistic optimism than for direct measures. The direct unrealistic optimism measures yielded more optimistic ratings for those participants who did not mention symptoms or signs of skin damage, and those who mentioned thoughts about prevalence. Participants seem to be drawing upon different sources of information when completing superficially similar direct and indirect measures of unrealistic optimism, which may explain why these measures are usually only modestly associated. People do not seem to think about numerical probabilities when estimating risk, but instead appear to focus on issues such as exposure to risk, and concrete bodily symptoms and signs. This may at least partially explain why attempts to influence behaviour by providing probabilistic information are generally unsuccessful.     

How optimists face skin cancer information: Risk assessment,attention, memory,and behavior

The purpose of the present study was to investigate how optimists process health-related information. Sixty-five young adults (ages 18–35) reported skin cancer-related knowledge and behaviors, and read slides of information on skin and skin cancer. Visual attention to the slides was recorded using eye tracking, and their memory for the information was measured. Additionally, participants’ self-reported skin cancer-relevant behavior was assessed prospectively in the months following the lab component of the study. Results show that individuals low in dispositional optimism or high in health-related optimism paid more attention when they were at high objective risk of developing skin cancer; and individuals high in dispositional optimism or high in health-related optimism were more likely to perform adaptive, health-promoting behaviors. In addition, optimistic beliefs were found not to be related with unrealistic optimism. Dispositional and health-related optimism therefore appear to predict health-related cognition and behavior in distinct ways.     

Positive illusion in close relationships

The literature regarding self-other comparisons suggests that self-enhancing perceptions are prevalent, including forms of “illusion” such as excessively positive self-evaluation, unrealistic optimism, and exaggerated perceptions of control. Concepts from optimal distinctiveness theory served as the basis for two experiments examining whether illusion functions similarly when the context of evaluation involves a relationship. In both experiments participants rated themselves, the best friend, and the average other—or their own romantic relationships, the best friend's relationship, and the relationship of the average other–using scales measuring positivity of evaluation, optimism regarding the future, and perceptions of control. In both experiments, participants exhibited centrality-based differentiation, rating targets more favorably to the degree that the target was more central to their social identity. Patterns of differentiation differed for the two contexts: In the individual context, participants differentiated themselves and their friends from the average other. In the relationship context, participants differentiated their own relationships from the relationships of friends and average others. Also, participants rated individuals as more controllable than relationships. Participants in Experiment 2 provided information regarding potential predictors of illusion. Analyses of these data suggest that favorable centrality-based differentiation may be partially accounted for by impression management, global self-esteem (particularly in the individual context), and commitment level (particularly in the relationship context).     

Saving for a Rainy Day? Comparative Optimism About Disability in Old Age

This study examined young (n = 40) and middle‐aged (n = 30) adults' susceptibility to comparative optimism and comparative pessimism regarding disability in old age and their willingness to save for long‐term care. Participants rated their risk of diverse levels of disability in old age, compared to another similar person, and indicated the amount of money they would be willing to save for future long‐term care. While middle‐aged participants showed the same level of comparative optimism for diverse disability levels, younger participants showed increasing levels of comparative optimism with increasing disability. Participants' comparative optimism levels and age both predicted their intentions to save. The findings are discussed in terms of theories of judgment and behavioral decision making.     

Imagining and Explaining Hypothetical Scenarios: Mediational Effects on the Subjective Likelihood of Health‐Related Outcomes1

Imagining and explaining hypothetical events have been shown to increase the subjective likelihood of those events occurring. At the same time, it has been suggested that reducing unrealistic optimism about health risks (i.e., increasing the subjective likelihood of negative health outcomes) might motivate health‐protective behavior. In exploring the implications of these issues for health‐promotion goals, 2 experiments (Ns= 334 and 328) involving postal questionnaires are reported in which attempts are made through the use of imagine‐and‐explain scenarios to manipulate the subjective likelihood of a negative outcome (heart disease) and of a positive outcome (reducing fat consumption). The greater success of the manipulation of dietary change expectations than of heart disease expectations suggests the potential benefits of focusing directly on planning goal strategies in relation to health beneficial behaviors.     

The influence of gender on children's ratings of fear in self and same-aged peers

In the present study, gender differences in children's fear were examined. Nine-year-old children were asked to rate their own fears, the fears of their peers of the opposite gender, and the fears of their peers of the same gender, using the Fear Survey Schedule for Children--Revised (Ollendick, 1983). Consistent with previous investigations, the results revealed that boys rated themselves as less fearful than girls. In addition, both male and female judges rated "other boys" as less afraid than "other girls." These findings emerged whether fear was examined in terms of intensity or prevalence. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Comparative Optimism,Self-Superiority,Egocentric Impact Perception and Health Information Seeking: A COVID-19 Study

We examined perceived self-other differences (self-uniqueness) in appraisals of one’s risk of an infectious disease (COVID-19), one’s adherence to behavioural precautionary measures against the disease, and the impact of these measures on one’s life. We also examined the relationship of self-uniqueness with information seeking and trust in sources of information about the disease. We administered an online survey to a community sample (N = 8696) of Dutch-speaking individuals, mainly in Belgium and The Netherlands, during the first lockdown (late April-Mid June 2020). As a group, participants reported that they were less likely to get infected or infect others or to suffer severe outcomes than average (unrealistic optimism) and that they adhered better than average to behavioural precautionary measures (illusory superiority). Except for participants below 25, who reported that they were affected more than average by these measures (egocentric impact bias), participants also generally reported that they were less affected than average (allocentric impact bias). Individual differences in self-uniqueness were associated with differences in the number of information sources being used and trust on these sources. Higher comparative optimism for infection, self-superiority, and allocentric impact perception were associated with information being sought from fewer sources; higher self-superiority and egocentric impact perception were associated with lower trust. We discuss implications for health communication.     

The Effect of Emotion on Visual Attention to Information and Decision Making in the Context of Informed Consent Process for Clinical Trials

The aim of this study was to examine the influence of emotion on visual information processing and decision making in the context of informed consent. Researchers are ethically obligated to ensure informed consent in clinical trials; however, many volunteers have unrealistic expectations about the value of an experimental therapy. Moreover, suboptimal participation rates for clinical trials may be partially attributable to perceptions that ethical obligations to volunteers are not met. This study examines whether discrete negative emotions (fear, anger, and sadness) differentially influence information processing, visual attention, and decisions in the context of clinical trial informed consent. Community participants completed a standard emotion induction (or control) and then read an actual consent form from a clinical trial while eye movements were tracked. Fear and anger produced the most prominently different patterns of systematic processing and visual attention, such that fear induced longer fixations to information presented, whereas anger induced shorter fixations. Moreover, among women only, fear increased decisions to participate, compared with anger and neutral emotion. Examinations of associations between eye‐tracking variables and self‐reported outcomes indicated that for angry participants only, less systematic processing was associated with greater decisions to participate. Negative emotions of any kind decreased accurate perceptions of trial benefit. These patterns suggest a complex interplay among emotion, processing style, and decision making. Future research is necessary to further probe these effects among potential clinical trial volunteers. Published 2016. This article is a U.S Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Accuracy, error, and bias in predictions for real versus hypothetical events

Participants made predictions about performance on tasks that they did or did not expect to complete. In three experiments, participants in task-unexpected conditions were unrealistically optimistic: They overestimated how well they would perform, often by a large margin, and their predictions were not correlated with their performance. By contrast, participants assigned to task-expected conditions made predictions that were not only less optimistic but strikingly accurate. Consistent with predictions from construal level theory, data from a fourth experiment suggest that it is the uncertainty associated with hypothetical tasks, and not a lack of cognitive processing, that frees people to make optimistic prediction errors. Unrealistic optimism, when it occurs, may be truly unrealistic; however, it may be less ubiquitous than has been previously suggested.     

Personality and Health Outcomes: Making Positive Expectations a Reality

Trait optimism is associated with better health, but the reason for this association is unclear. The present investigation focused on specific goals and negative emotions as potential pathways through which optimism can lead to better health. College students (n = 336) in the U.S. reported their mental and physical health at the start of an academic term and during finals. Over the course of the term, they reported three daily events and rated the extent to which they were motivated to attain positive outcomes (approach goals) or avoid negative outcomes (avoidance goals). Greater optimism predicted fewer mental and physical health symptoms at the end of the term, controlling for initial symptoms. This association between optimism and symptoms was mediated by the intensity of avoidance goals and negative emotion during the term. These findings suggest that positive expectations do predict better health and this relationship is partially due to the goals people set in their daily lives.     

Anticipated,experienced, and remembered subjective effort and discomfort on sustained attention versus working memory tasks

This study examined individuals’ ability to accurately anticipate how cognitively effortful and uncomfortable a task will feel based on a short sample of the task. Participants completed a sustained attention or working memory task. Post-practice, participants rated the effort and discomfort that they anticipated their task would require and engender, respectively. Participants also rated their effort and discomfort during task-administration and the effort and discomfort they recalled feeling after task-administration. Sustained attention task participants anticipated significantly less effort than working memory task participants. Sustained attention task participants felt significantly more effort during the task and remembered feeling more effort than they had anticipated. Working memory task participants felt significantly less effort during the task than they had anticipated. Sustained attention task participants anticipated, experienced, and recalled feeling more discomfort than working memory task participants. Individuals’ anticipation of effort required depends on the task and is different from the effort they actually feel during the task and later recall feeling.     

Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism)

People tend to overestimate their comparative likelihood of experiencing a rosy future. The present research suggests that one reason for this error is that when people compare their likelihood of experiencing an event with that of the average person, they focus on their own chances of experiencing the event and insufficiently consider the likelihood of the average person experiencing the event. As a consequence, people tend to think that they are more likely than the average person to experience common events and less likely than the average person to experience rare events. This causes unrealistic optimism in the case of common desirable events and rare undesirable events, but unrealistic pessimism in the case of rare desirable events and common undesirable events (Studies 1 and 2). Study 2 further suggests that both egocentrism and focalism underlie these biases. These results suggest that unrealistic optimism is not as ubiquitous as once thought.     

Optimism across cultures: In response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak

Based on our early research, we predicted that the Chinese may be more optimistic and less pessimistic than North Americans in response to negative life events. A survey was conducted to investigate optimism cross culturally in the context of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreaks in Canada and China. Chinese students in Beijing and European Canadians in Toronto answered questions about their perceptions of SARS. No significant cultural difference was found on dispositional optimism, as measured by the Revised Life Orientation Test (LOT-R). Unrealistic optimism was measured in the context of SARS. Both groups demonstrated unrealistic optimism (i.e. reporting that the self was less likely than an average person to get infected with SARS). Such optimistic bias was stronger among Chinese than among Canadians. Compared to the actual infection rates in Beijing and Toronto, both Chinese and Canadian participants overestimated their own chances of getting infected, indicating that they were being pessimistic. Indeed, Chinese were less pessimistic than Canadians. In addition, even though the Chinese reported more inconvenience brought by SARS than did Canadians, they also reported more positive changes brought by SARS, reflecting the Chinese dialectical views of events. Implications for research on optimism in context are discussed.     

Perceptions of comparative optimism and perceptions of career success: Experimental evidence for a bidirectional effect

ABSTRACT

Audiences generally view people who display more (versus less) comparative optimism more favorably. We explored whether audiences view a target who displays comparative optimism as more professionally successful, and conversely, whether they view a target who is more professionally successful as more comparatively optimistic. In Study 1, participants estimated the career success of a target that varied in level of comparative optimism. In Study 2, participants estimated the level of comparative optimism of a target that varied in career success. The results revealed that observers rated comparative optimists as likely to have successful careers, and rated people with successful careers as likely to display comparative optimism. Inferences about personal agency account for the bidirectional relationship.     

Fight and Flight: Evidence of Aggressive Capitulation in the Face of Fear Messages from Terrorists

In an era of digital technology and the Internet, terrorists can communicate their threats directly to citizens of Western countries. Yet no research has examined whether these messages change individuals' attitudes and behavior or the psychological processes underlying these effects. Two studies (conducted in 2008 and 2010) examined how American, Australian, and British participants responded to messages from Osama bin Laden that threatened violence if troops were not withdrawn from Afghanistan. Heightened fear in response to the message resulted in what we call “aggressive capitulation,” characterized by two different group‐protection responses: (1) submission to terrorist demands in the face of threats made against one's country and (2) support for increased efforts to combat the source of the threat but expressed in abstract terms that do not leave one's country vulnerable. Fear predicted influence over and above other variables relevant to persuasion. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.