The affect heuristic in judgments of risks and benefits

This paper re‐examines the commonly observed inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit. We propose that this relationship occurs because people rely on affect when judging the risk and benefit of specific hazards. Evidence supporting this proposal is obtained in two experimental studies. Study 1 investigated the inverse relationship between risk and benefit judgments under a time‐pressure condition designed to limit the use of analytic thought and enhance the reliance on affect. As expected, the inverse relationship was strengthened when time pressure was introduced. Study 2 tested and confirmed the hypothesis that providing information designed to alter the favorability of one's overall affective evaluation of an item (say nuclear power) would systematically change the risk and benefit judgments for that item. Both studies suggest that people seem prone to using an ‘affect heuristic’ which improves judgmental efficiency by deriving both risk and benefit evaluations from a common source—affective reactions to the stimulus item. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of the affect heuristic and cancer anxiety in responding to negative information about medical tests

Objective: Little is known about the affective implications of communicating negative information about medical tests. This research explored how affective processes – particularly the Affect Heuristic and cancer anxiety – influence the way in which people respond to such information.

Design: Participants received different types of information about PSA screening for prostate cancer and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans for migraine headaches. This was a 2 (Test harm information: present vs. absent) × 2 (Test benefit information: present vs. absent) × 2 (Test recommendation: present vs. absent) between-participants design.

Outcome Measures: Perceived risk, perceived benefit and general attitudes towards PSA and MRI testing, cancer anxiety, preferences to receive the tests vs. not.

Results: As predicted by the Affect Heuristic, test harm information reduced perceived test benefits. However, information about uncertain test benefit did not increase perceived test risks. Information about the test reduced cancer anxiety, indicating defensive coping. These variables – affect, anxiety, perceived risks and benefits – all uniquely predicted test preferences.

Conclusion: Affective processes play an important role in how people respond to and interpret negative information about medical tests. Information about harms and information about the lack of benefit can both make a test seem less beneficial, and will reduce cancer anxiety as a result.     

Dominance violations in judged prices of two- and three-outcome gambles

The dominance principle states that one should prefer the option with consequences that are at least as good as those of other options for any state of the world. When applied to judged prices of gambles, the dominance principle requires that increasing one or more outcomes of a gamble should increase the judged price of the gamble, with everything else held constant. Previous research has uncovered systematic violations of the dominance principle: people assign higher prices to a gamble with a large probability of winning an amount, Y, otherwise zero, than they do to a superior gamble with the same chance of winning Y, otherwise winning a small amount, X! These violations can be explained by a configural-weight theory in which two-outcome gambles are represented with two sets of decision weights; one set for outcomes having values of zero and another set for lower-valued outcomes that have nonzero values. The present paper investigates whether dominance violations are limited to two-outcome gambles. Results show that people violate the dominance principle with three-outcome gambles even with financial incentives. Furthermore, results could be predicted from the configural-weight theory. The data do not support the view that configural weighting is caused by a shift in strategy that would apply only to two-outcome gambles.     

判断与决策中的情感启发式

情感启发式是指在判断与决策的过程中,个体会有意识或无意识的利用自己对任务选项的主观情感反应来做出决策。具体来说,个体头脑中物体和事件的表征会激起不同水平的情感体验,这种不同的体验会对所有的表征做出积极或消极的标记,人们根据这些被标记的体验来做出判断和决策。情感启发式是个体在决策中常用的策略。目前,关于情感启发式心理机制的解释主要有情感启发式模型和双加工理论。此外,情感启发式的影响因素主要包括经验、时间压力、可评估性和计数能力等。未来的研究应主要集中在探究情感启发式的产生根源和进一步扩展情感启发式应用领域的研究。     

Does integral affect influence intentions to use artificial intelligence for skin cancer screening? A test of the affect heuristic

Objective: This study investigated how affect influences people’s processing of messages about risks and benefits of using autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) technology to screen for skin cancer. We examined integral affect (emotion derived during decision making) separately from incidental affect (extraneous mood states).

Design: Using the affect heuristic framework, we randomly assigned 273 participants to conditions featuring risk (high, low, uncertain) or benefit (high, low, uncertain) messages about AI. Following ‘affect-as-spotlight’, we also explored whether people’s integral affect towards skin cancer moderated the relationship between risk/benefit messages and AI screening intentions.

Outcomes: Perceived risk, perceived benefit, positive and negative affect toward AI, intention to use AI screening.

Results: After controlling for incidental affect and risk perceptions, we found that compared to low risk messages, uncertain risk messages increased participants’ negative affect toward AI, decreased positive affect toward AI, increased AI risk evaluations and reduced AI benefit evaluations. Perceptual variables significantly mediated participants’ intentions to use AI for risk messages but not benefit messages. No moderation effects were found.

Conclusions: Results suggest extending the affect heuristic framework to include uncertain risk conditions. Integral AI affect influenced people’s interpretation of messages, which then impacted likelihood to use AI technology for health.     

The role of affect in the WTA/WTP disparity

Four studies demonstrated robust within‐ and between‐subject differences in willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) and willingness‐to‐accept (WTA) measures of the value of lottery tickets. Buyers and sellers attended to different numerical cues and interpreted the same numbers differently when setting these two kinds of monetary values. Affective influences appeared to guide the valuation process. Buyers with stronger positive feelings about owning a ticket were willing to pay more for a ticket; sellers with stronger negative feelings about no longer having a ticket required a greater minimum payment in exchange for their ticket. In addition, the WTA/WTP disparity tended to be greater for more affectively‐laden lottery tickets. The results suggest that WTA and WTP prices are constructed using salient numerical cues and affective feelings. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The independence of positive and negative affect depends on the affect measure

This study examined the degree of independence between Positive Affect (PA) and Negative Affect (NA) within a given situation. The affective state was measured before and after an experimentally induced success or failure experience in an anagram task. Two types of affect measures were used to assess PA and NA: the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and a Pleasantness-Unpleasantness scale. Consistent with our hypotheses, results show that PA and NA are independent when measured with the PANAS but are correlated when assessed with the other scale. These PA-NA correlations differed significantly from each other before and after emotion induction, respectively. Additional analyses indicate that both PA scales are differentially sensitive to the mood induction procedure. The findings are discussed with respect to circumplex models of emotion.     

Empirical tests of the recognition heuristic

The recognition heuristic postulates that individuals should choose a recognized object more often than an unrecognized one whenever recognition is related to the criterion. This behavior has been described as a one‐cue, noncompensatory decision‐making strategy. This claim and other assumptions were tested in four experiments using paired‐comparison tasks with cities and other geographical objects. The main results were (1) that the recognized object was chosen more often than the unrecognized one when the recognition cue was valid; (2) that participants' behavior did not reflect the recognition validity of their own knowledge; (3) that a less‐is‐more effect (i.e., better performance with less knowledge) was either absent or of only small size; and (4) that judgments were influenced by further knowledge, which could even compensate for the recognition cue. In sum, the recognition cue represents an important piece of knowledge in paired comparisons, but apparently not the only one. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contingent reliance on the affect heuristic as a function of regulatory focus

Results from four studies show that the reliance on affect as a heuristic of judgment and decision making is more pronounced under a promotion focus than under a prevention focus. Two different manifestations of this phenomenon were observed. Studies 1–3 show that different types of affective inputs are weighted more heavily under promotion than under prevention in person-impression formation, product evaluations, and social recommendations. Study 4 additionally shows that valuations performed under promotion are more scope-insensitive—a characteristic of affect-based valuations—than valuations performed under prevention. The greater reliance on affect as a heuristic under promotion seems to arise because promotion-focused individuals tend to find affective inputs more diagnostic, not because promotion increases the reliance on peripheral information per se.     

The loss‐bet paradox: Actuaries,accountants, and other numerate people rate numerically inferior gambles as superior

Psychologists have convincingly demonstrated that preferences are not always stable and, instead, are often “constructed” based on information available in the judgment or decision context. In 4 studies with experts (accountants and actuaries in Studies 1 and 2, respectively) and a diverse lay population (Studies 3 and 4), the evidence was consistent with the highly numerate being more likely than the less numerate to construct their preferences by rating a numerically inferior bet as superior (i.e., the bets effect). Thus, the effect generalizes beyond a college student sample, and preference construction differs by numeracy. Contrary to prior thinking about preference construction, however, high expertise and high ability (rather than low) consistently related to the paradoxical phenomenon. Results across studies including Study 3's experimental modifications of the task supported the hypothesized number comparison process (and not a lack of expertise with monetary outcomes and probabilities or numeracy‐related differences in attention to numbers) as the effect's underlying cause. The bets effect was not attenuated by Study 4's instructions to think about what would be purchased with bet winnings. Task results combined with free‐response coding supported the notion that highly numerate participants have a systematic and persistent inclination for doing simple and complex number operations that drive their judgments (even after controlling for nonnumeric intelligence). Implications for 3 types of dual‐process theories are discussed. The results were inconsistent with default‐interventionist theories, consistent or unclear with respect to fuzzy trace theory, and consistent with interactive theories.     

The relationship between personality and affect over the lifespan

This study compared the trait and emotion perspectives of personality development by examining relationships between extraversion, neuroticism, positive and negative affect across the lifespan. A total of 533 volunteers: 228 children and early adolescents (8 to 15 years), 163 late adolescents and young adults (16 to 29 years) and 142 adults (30 to 68 years) completed Eysenck's Personality Questionnaire (EPQ) and the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). Extraversion correlated significantly with positive affect and neuroticism with negative affect in each age group. As predicted by the emotion perspective, correlations were significantly stronger for adults than children and early adolescents. In addition, extraversion-positive affect and neuroticism-negative affect factors explained less variance for children and early adolescents compared to those of adults.     

Overpredicting and Underprofiting in Pricing Decisions

This research examines sellers' price‐setting behavior and discovers a naturally occurring mismatch between sellers and buyers: Sellers who make a price decision often consider alternative prices and engage in the joint evaluation mode, whereas buyers who make a purchase decision see only the finally set price and are in the single evaluation mode. This mismatch in evaluation modes leads sellers to overpredict buyers' price sensitivity and underprice their products. However, these effects apply only to products unfamiliar to buyers and without salient reference prices and can be alleviated if sellers are encouraged to mimic single evaluation when making pricing decisions. These propositions are empirically tested and verified. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual differences in trait urgency moderate the role of the affect heuristic in adolescent binge drinking

This study investigated the roles of the affect heuristic and outcome beliefs in explaining the relationship between negative urgency and adolescent binge drinking behaviour. The sample consisted of 391 Australian high school students, who were selected to be low or high on urgency. We hypothesised that highly urgent adolescents would be more likely than adolescents low in urgency to utilise the affect heuristic (i.e., to rely upon affective input) when making alcohol-related decisions. Multiple-group path analysis supported this prediction. Adolescents high in urgency exhibited greater use of the affect heuristic by displaying a direct path from affective associations to binge drinking; whereas adolescents low in urgency exhibited greater reliance upon rational processing by displaying an indirect path via outcome beliefs.     

Optimism predicting employees' creativity: The mediating role of positive affect and the positivity ratio

We examine how optimism predicts creativity both directly and through the mediating role of positive affect and the positivity ratio (the ratio between the frequency of positive and negative affective states). Five hundred and ninety five employees reported their positive and negative affect, as well as their optimism. Their creativity was reported by supervisors. The main findings are the following: (1) optimism predicts creativity both directly and through the mediating role of positive affect and the positivity ratio; (2) the relationship between the positivity ratio and creativity is curvilinear, in such a way that an “excessive” ratio is detrimental to creativity. The findings stress the relevance of optimism both for individuals and organizations, and suggest that examining positivity ratios is fruitful in the creativity domain, as it has been in other domains, and that negative affect should not be viewed simply as an obstacle when studying employees' creativity.     

Emotion,core affect,and psychological construction

As an alternative to using the concepts of emotion, fear, anger, and the like as scientific tools, this article advocates an approach based on the concepts of core affect and psychological construction, expanding the domain of inquiry beyond “emotion”. Core affect is a neurophysiological state that underlies simply feeling good or bad, drowsy or energised. Psychological construction is not one process but an umbrella term for the various processes that produce: (a) a particular emotional episode's “components” (such as facial movement, vocal tone, peripheral nervous system change, appraisal, attribution, behaviour, subjective experience, and emotion regulation); (b) associations among the components; and (c) the categorisation of the pattern of components as a specific emotion.     

情感启发式对风险选择的影响

本研究旨在考察情感启发式对风险选择的影响。研究1采用线上和线下结合的方式对687名大学生进行问卷施测,修订并检验中文版情感启发式问卷的信效度,以该问卷测试的风险−收益相关系数作为衡量情感启发式倾向的指标。研究2采用极端被试法,在103名大学生完成问卷后,将风险−收益相关系数绝对值前20%和后20%的被试分为高、低情感启发式组,完成风险选择任务。结果发现：（1）中文版情感启发式问卷具有较好的信度与效度,可以作为情感启发式倾向的测试问卷。（2）风险选择任务激活负性情绪时,相比于低情感启发式倾向,高情感启发式倾向的被试更容易受负性情绪的影响,其风险判断的主观值更高。研究揭示了情感启发式对风险选择的影响,为情感启发式作为个体进行风险判断的重要依据提供了实证支持。     

The affect heuristic,mortality salience,and risk: Domain‐specific effects of a natural disaster on risk‐benefit perception

We examine how affect and accessible thoughts following a major natural disaster influence everyday risk perception. A survey was conducted in the months following the 2004 south Asian Tsunami in a representative sample of the Swedish population (N = 733). Respondents rated their experienced affect as well as the perceived risk and benefits of various everyday decision domains. Affect influenced risk and benefit perception in a way that could be predicted from both the affect‐congruency and affect heuristic literatures (increased risk perception and stronger risk‐benefit correlations). However, in some decision domains, self‐regulation goals primed by the natural disaster predicted risk and benefit ratings. Together, these results show that affect, accessible thoughts and motivational states influence perceptions of risks and benefits.     

Character profiles and adolescents’ self-reported affect

Cognitive and behavioral changes during adolescence might be understood from the perspective of increased executive functioning that is expressed as gradual maturing character. Character profiles (combinations of low and high scores in three character traits: Self-directedness, Cooperativeness, and Self-transcendence) of 439 Swedish adolescents were used to evaluate the linear and non-linear relationship between character traits and self-reported positive and negative affect. Linear analysis showed that all three character traits were associated to positive and negative affect. Non-linear analysis showed that Self-directedness was associated with high positive affect and low negative affect when Cooperativeness was high. No association of higher Cooperativeness with positive and negative affect was found. Higher Self-transcendence was associated with higher negative affect when both Self-directedness and Cooperativeness were high. Although, Self-directedness, Cooperativeness, and Self-transcendence are associated to adolescents’ affective experience, these character traits are not associated to positive and negative affect in the same manner or linearly. Self-directedness’s positive relationship to high positive affect and low negative affect was present only when Cooperativeness was high. In other words, an autonomous adolescent (i.e., high Self-directedness) might experience more positive and less negative emotions as long as she/he feels as an integral part of society (i.e., high Cooperativeness).     

Trait emotional intelligence and mental distress: The mediating role of positive and negative affect

Over the past decade, emotional intelligence (EI) has received much attention in the literature. Previous studies indicated that higher trait or ability EI was associated with greater mental distress. The present study focused on mediating effects of positive and negative affect on the association between trait EI and mental distress in a sample of Chinese adults. The participants were 726 Chinese adults (384 females) with an age range of 18–60 years. Data were collected by using the Wong Law Emotional Intelligence Scale, the Positive Affect and Negative Affect Scale, and the General Health Questionnaire. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that EI was a significant predictor of positive affect, negative affect and mental distress. Further mediation analysis showed that positive and negative affect acted as partial mediators of the relationship between EI and mental distress. Furthermore, effect contrasts showed that there was no significant difference between the specific indirect effects through positive affect and through negative affect. This result indicated that positive affect and negative affect played an equally important function in the association between EI and distress. The significance and limitations of the results are discussed.     

理想情感及其影响的跨文化差异

理想情感是人们期望获得的情感状态。情感评估理论认为文化对理想情感的塑造有着重要影响,主要的影响途径有文化体验、文化价值观和社会文化变化。理想情感对个体会产生具有文化特异性的影响,主要会影响个体的偏好及选择行为、混合情绪体验、身心健康和社会认知决策。理想情感研究未来发展可以着眼于4个方向:使用纵向视角研究理想情感,进一步探索理想情感的前因变量,打造适合中国文化的心理健康标准和通过认识理想情感来消除文化隔阂。